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December 4-6, 2013
Yolanda Robles HI Nonoy. Thanks for adding me to
the group. I just attended an AIM-KOICA event in Makati with the theme: Korea
as a Partner of ASEAN, Furthering Cooperation for Enhanced Partnership and
Common Prosperity through ODA. In this, the NEDA Representative gave a concise
report on what the present government does in terms of poverty reduction and
employment generation. Comments from the participants include: "the focus
of employment generation is still on services, and which may require more
college graduates rather than those with lower educational attainment. The
greater number of poor and unemployed are those in the latter group. Why not
also reinvigorate manufacturing which could employ more people of different
educational attainments." Well, what's your say on this?
Nonoy Oplas Thanks Yolly. I am not sure if
there is an existing Japan-ASEAN EPA (Econ. Partnership Agreement), sort of a
soft Free Trade Agreement (FTA). So S. Korea should be initiating a Korea-ASEAN
EPA too.
About the comment, I think it is a misconception that those in the services sector are mostly the college graduates. Not true. The services sector include (a) trading, wholesale and retail including ambulant and public market vendors; (b) Transpo, storage and communication which includes airlines, buses, jeepneys, taxi, shipping lines, pump boats for hire, etc.; (c) real estate, renting and business activities that include hotels, inns, lodging houses; (d) public administration including LGUs, and (e) other services like restos, karaoke bars, etc.
It is not good to dichotomize the economy as "manufacturing and agriculture are crucial, services are non- or less-productive". Food manufacturing will become hollow if there are no supermarkets, convenience stores, sari-sari stores (all under the service sector).
About the comment, I think it is a misconception that those in the services sector are mostly the college graduates. Not true. The services sector include (a) trading, wholesale and retail including ambulant and public market vendors; (b) Transpo, storage and communication which includes airlines, buses, jeepneys, taxi, shipping lines, pump boats for hire, etc.; (c) real estate, renting and business activities that include hotels, inns, lodging houses; (d) public administration including LGUs, and (e) other services like restos, karaoke bars, etc.
It is not good to dichotomize the economy as "manufacturing and agriculture are crucial, services are non- or less-productive". Food manufacturing will become hollow if there are no supermarkets, convenience stores, sari-sari stores (all under the service sector).
Yolanda Robles Thanks for your comment. I
think the surplus college graduates take also jobs intended for high school and
vocational graduates. That's why less jobs are less available to the latter
group. The surplus of college graduates reflects the greater preference for
white collar jobs, the mismatch between education and human resource needs,
among others. As for trade agreements, there is such a thing as ASEAN + 3. The
3 refers to China, Japan and Korea which ASEAN countries have trade agreements
with
Nonoy Oplas Yes, there is an ASEAN + 3, but
it is only during the annual ASEAN summit, and not an EPA or FTA. So those 3
north Asian countries China, Japan, S. Korea initiate their own EPA or FTA with
ASEAN as a bloc. Thus, a China-ASEAN FTA (I think to materialize by January
2015), a Japan-ASEAN EPA, and a S. Korea-ASEAN EPA/FTA. Since dealing with
ASEAN as a bloc is more bureaucratic and more time consuming, some countries
strike a bilateral EPA or FTA, that is why we have a Japan-Philippines EPA
(JPEPA) and so on.
Yolanda Robles Yes, you are right. It was
mentioned that Japan, South Korea, and China have country-specific agreements
with some ASEAN countries and the current direction is to deal with ASEAN as a
block
Nonoy Oplas Meanwhile, here is an old graph
that I developed in a talk on free trade, Atlas-FNF conference in Kuala Lumpur
in 2005. Trade protectionism penalizes consumers and protects local producers,
that is why free trade is being pushed to remedy the price distortion caused by
protectionism.
I saw Dr. Poch Macaranas of AIM this afternoon, he's the
former Director of the AIM Policy Center. He said he is helping in the ASEAN
FTA (AFTA), ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) and related issues, which should
materialize by January 2015 (12 1/2 months from now) but has been moved to
December 2015 or 2 years from now. I thanked him for that piece of info.
Being an advocate of free trade, I can only say that once trade is politicized and bureaucratized, instead of having free, unconditional trade between and among people, it becomes "trade with permission" from government.
Being an advocate of free trade, I can only say that once trade is politicized and bureaucratized, instead of having free, unconditional trade between and among people, it becomes "trade with permission" from government.
Bonn Juego Noy, again, your kind of economics
does not know how to create a wealthy nation in the PH context, how capitalism
itself can lead to productivity explosions for the benefit of the entire
economy. Good that NEDA understands the qualitative differences that different
economic activities - manufacturing, agriculture, services - have for economic
growth and the whole socioeconomic development process. My approach, of course,
combines, among others, Marx, Schumpeter, and Keynes. As I said, I find yours
more like the 'libertarianism' of Ayn Rand and the Koch Brothers, than the
'liberal' economics of Smith, Ricardo, Hayek, and Friedman who at least have a
sense of moral philosophy. Anyway, greetings from stormy Scandinavia!
