Climate Tricks 66, Ignoring the implications of worsening cosmic rays situation

For those who keep believing that global warming and climate change is anthropogenic or man-made, who believe that they can "fight" GW and CC via more government, more UN, more carbon taxes, more renewables cronyism, more climate bureaucracies, more global climate meetings, please widen your mind. Natural or nature-made GW and CC is factual than CO2-is-pollutant-evil drama.

https://www.thegwpf.com/content/uploads/2018/03/SvensmarkLondon2018.pdf

More galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), more cloud cover, more cooling of the planet. Conversely, less GCRs, less clouds, more warming of the planet.

More stories here:

(1) https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/03/05/the-worsening-cosmic-ray-situation/

The Worsening Cosmic Ray Situation

MARCH 5, 2018 / DR.TONY PHILLIPS

March 5, 2018: Cosmic rays are bad–and they’re getting worse.

That’s the conclusion of a new paper just published in the research journal Space Weather. The authors, led by Prof. Nathan Schwadron of the University of New Hampshire, show that radiation from deep space is dangerous and intensifying faster than previously expected….

(2) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017SW001803

Update on the worsening particle radiation environment observed by CRaTER and implications for future human deep‐space exploration*

N. A. Schwadron  F. Rahmanifard  J. Wilson  A. P. Jordan  H. E. Spence  C. J. Joyce  J. B. Blake A. W. Case  W. de Wet  W. M. Farrell  J. C. Kasper  M. D. Looper  N. Lugaz  L. Mays  ... See all authors

First published: 22 February 2018

Abstract

Over the last decade, the solar wind has exhibited low densities and magnetic field strengths, representing anomalous states that have never been observed during the space age. As discussed by Schwadron et al. (2014a), the cycle 23–24 solar activity led to the longest solar minimum in more than 80 years and continued into the “mini” solar maximum of cycle 24. During this weak activity, we observed galactic cosmic ray fluxes that exceeded the levels observed throughout the space age, and we observed small solar energetic particle events. Here, we provide an update to the Schwadron et al (2014a) observations from the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO)….

(3) https://link.springer.com/article/10.3103/S1062873817020411?

Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics

February 2017, Volume 81, Issue 2, pp 252–254 | Cite as

Cosmic rays, solar activity, and changes in the Earth’s climate

Authors: Y. I. StozhkovEmail authorG. A. BazilevskayaV. S. MakhmutovN. S. SvirzhevskyA. K. SvirzhevskayaV. I. LogachevV. P. Okhlopkov

Proceedings of the 34th All-Russian Conference on Cosmic Rays

First Online: 08 March 2017

Abstract

One of the most important problems facing humanity, global climate change, is discussed. The roles of cosmic ray fluxes and solar activity in this process are analyzed. Although several mechanisms explaining global climate change have been proposed, none of them are firmly grounded. At the United Nations summit in Paris at the end of 2015, it was decided that greenhouse gases are responsible for the global warming of our planet. However, the authors of this work believe the question of what causes global changes in the Earth’s climate remains open, and will obviously be solved once and for all in the next 10–15 years.

(4) https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonconstable/2018/03/13/how-the-suns-activity-could-auger-an-economic-change/#3b7cca5734dc

MAR 13, 2018 @ 09:11 AM

How Activity On The Sun Could Change The Economy

Simon Constable , CONTRIBUTOR

The question is whether we will enter another grand solar minimum just like the Maunder minimum which if history is a guide would mean a period of much colder weather winters and summers. More than a few experts with whom I speak regularly believe that we shall enter such a grand minimum along with the resulting bone-chilling weather.

If that happens, then there will be profound influences on the economy, including possible crop failures and rising energy use for home and workplace heating. Or in other words, expect bigger bills for food and energy. After a period in which the supply of both has been increasingly abundant then this change will likely come as a shock to many people and likely the broader global economy as well.

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See also:
Climate Tricks 63, The search for huge climate money in COP 23, November 26, 2017 
Climate Tricks 64, Bitter cold and snow are caused by AGW, January 06, 2018 
Climate Tricks 65, "Last chance" to save the planet stories, 1992-2018, March 16, 2018

Climate Tricks 10: Demonize CO2 as a Pollutant and Evil Gas

Yesterday, I posted this photo in my facebook wall with this note,

CO2 is a useful gas. It's the gas that we humans exhale, that our pets and animals exhale, the gas that our flowers and plants use for their food production. Also the gas that comes out when you open your can or bottle of soda. CO2 is the gas of life. Only the UN, Al Gore, WWF, Greenpeace, other scammers say that CO2 is evil.


It attracted counter-comments from a friend, Doods de los Reyes. We have a long and civil debate after this, yesterday until today, see below. A bit long, get your popcorn and juice :-)
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Doods De Los Reyes carbon monoxide yung poisonous to humans, but a large concentration of carbon dioxide can also affect health. Also, carbon dioxide contributes to the greenhouse effect similar to hydrogen. Humans activities are producing more carbon dioxide than our oceans and vegetation can absorb. In any ecosystem, balance is important.

Nonoy Oplas Yes, CO, NO, Pb, particulates, etc are harmful to humans. But CO2 is not. If CO2 is a pollutant gas, then couples should not kiss lips to lips for long, or they should not stay in enclosed places like a car or small room or office, otherwise they will be polluting each other as they breath and exhale.

CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is soooo small actually, nearly 400 parts per million (ppm), that is why CO2 is considered as a "trace gas". Divide 400/1,000,000, you get what, 0.004 percent, that's how small CO2 is in the total greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. About 95 percent of all GHGs is water vapor, like evaporation from oceans, seas and lakes, evapotranspiration from plants, human perspiration, etc.

Doods De Los Reyes This NASA study says that without carbon dioxide as a contributing factor water vapor levels in the atmosphere won't rise as much, and that the planet's temperature ultimately depends on atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/co2-temperature.html.

NASA - Carbon Dioxide Controls Earth's Temperature
www.nasa.gov

Doods De Los Reyes This study states that the Earth's atmosphere is losing three oxygen molecules for every molecule of carbon dioxide that accumulates in the air. http://blogcritics.org/scitech/article/atmospheric-oxygen-levels-fall-as-carbon/

Atmospheric Oxygen Levels Fall As Carbon Dioxide Rises
blogcritics.org

hehe sorry about the Steve Ballmer picture, dunno why Facebook is showing it in the article preview.

Nonoy Oplas That's typical pronouncements and "studies" from GISS, an office under NASA headed by James Hansen. Here's a simple explanation, if not rebuttal, to such GISS paper, from a former NASA scientist, currently a climatologist at UAH, Dr. Roy Spencer, http://www.drroyspencer.com/global-warming-natural-or-manmade/. His concluding sentence," Climate change — it happens, with or without our help."

Global Warming « Roy Spencer, Ph. D.
www.drroyspencer.com

Ruelle Albert Castro sir pagkakatanda ko yung COs eh ginagamit lang as equivalent nung harmful elements na nasa ere? so parang it's not about CO2 per se but yung CO2 equivalent niya sa bawat nilalabas na harmful elements...

Nonoy Oplas See any "causality" or link between CO2 concentration and global temperature, average for Northern hemisphere, tropics and southern hemisphere, satellite data of the air/lower troposphere, as of end-May 2012, http://friendsofscience.org/

Warming Hysteria: Climate Extortion and Mayon Volcano

It is too common. When one cannot argue with data and facts, they attack the people or institutions that bring the idea. That is, they shoot the messenger, not the message.

This practice is very visible in the anthropogenic [man-made] global warming (AGW) claims. Many campaigners of such claim are too impatient to hear any opposing idea, so they douse any dissenting voice as "that's big oil lobby" and similar statements.

One article from mother jones has pathetically attacked the Atlas Economic Research Foundation, the International Policy Network (IPN), the Civil Society Coalition on Climate Change (CSCCC), and other think tanks and coalitions/network that do not agree with the AGW claim, see here.
http://motherjones.com/environment/2009/12/climate-deniers-atlas-foundation

The author is Mr. Josh Harkinson. The science and data behind AGW claim is highly suspect. I wrote a few papers on this, the latest of which is "Warming lies", http://www.minimalgovernment.net/media/mg_20091201.pdf.

Atlas is helping small think tanks around the world that advance individual liberty, not because they are questioning AGW. Most or all of those think tanks are fighting dictatorships, corruption, trade protectionism, high taxation, private property rights confiscation, among others. Questioning AGW is a small part of their work.

The CSCCC is a big international coalition of independent think tanks and institutes in more than 40 countries that don't believe in ecological central planning. Since there is no consensus yet about the science behind AGW, there should be no global coercion on environment and energy policies.

Talking about money, I think that while it is true that some oil money like Exxonmobil's was mobilized to help some "skeptics" groups, another big oil, Shell, is on the side of the warmers and most likely be giving them money too.

One estimate of lobby is goes like this:
against AGW, about $2m/year.
pro-AGW: $4 billion/year from the US federal government alone.
This is for climate researches that support the man-made warming conclusion. See for instance, http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/images/stories/papers/originals/climate_money.pdf
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My related short papers recently:

(1)  Winterstorm and Climate Extortion

December 20, 2009

I saw in my facebook account, pictures just a few hours ago, of my Filipino and American friends in deep snow in front of their houses in DC-VA and NYC. In this picture, my good friend Jo Kwong of the Atlas Economic Research Foundation in DC.

That's one day after the conclusion of the Copenhagen meeting to "fight unequivocal global warming."

US President Obama was forced to cut his trip in snowy Copenhagen to head back to DC because of the winter storm. But before flying, he and State Sec. Hillary Clinton promised "$100 billion a year starting 2020", all to fight global warming. The agreement in Copenhagen was to "limit global warming to only 2 C". The IPCC AR4 warned of "best case" 4 C rise in global temperature, with worst case of 6.4 C rise by 2100.

I would say that the Copenhagen meeting was an event of irony and hypocrisy. Let me enumerate a few points why I say this.

1. The $100 B/year promise by Mr. Obama will be made long after his term in the White House has ended, by 2020. It's the typical "promise everything" or "scare everyone with scenarios" long after you yourself is gone from your office or from the face of the Earth. The IPCC scientists for instance who predicted in 2007 of "up to 6.4 C rise by 2100" will all be dead by then.

2. Extortion by poor country governments. There was high political heat and bickering among poor country govts. vs rich country govts. vs. big environmental NGOs, in pressuring how much carbon emission cuts by whom and by when. In the end, they talk about money, money, money. European government initially said $10 billion/year, poor country governments said "No, We want $300 to $400 billion/year!"
Haggling and bickering, they end up with $100 B/year promise by Obama, plus contributions by EU and other rich governments. So in a sense, it was a meeting for extortion by poor country govts. But the leaders of those poor countries are ALL rich.

3. Venezuelan socialist President Hugo Chavez spoke in Copenhagen, lambasted the evils of capitalism and how capitalist corporations destroyed the planet. And many government representatives and NGOs applauded and gave him a standing ovation! Last time I checked, it was capitalism which gave them all commercial airlines, private jets, expensive limos and sedans, that brought them to capitalist Copenhagen. And they stayed in capitalist hotels, ate in capitalist restaurants in the city. Capitalist power plants gave them uninterrupted power and electricity for their meeting, and capitalist media outlets broadcasted their meetings and riots all around the world. And those politicians and bureaucrats say "capitalism is evil."

4. Blizzard in Copenhagen and upcoming winter storm in DC and surrounding states while they are meeting to "fight global warming". This time, it's the Earth telling them, "Get real guys. I got no fever. I'm chilling, and so are you."

Readers, feel free to add your list of irony and hypocrisy in all those lies and alarmism.

(2) Mayon Volcano and Climate

December 19, 2009

Mayon volcano, the most active of the Philippines' 21 active volcanoes (and several dozens inactive ones), has been very active recently. In the last century, it was exploding every 10 years on average, I think. This decade and century, this will be it's 3rd explosion. First was February 2000, 2nd on August 2006, and now December 2009. That volcano is contributing lots of CO2 and other gases into the atmosphere.

Contribute to global warming? No. Exploding volcanoes release lots of gases, CO2 among them; also dust and smoke, into the lower and upper atmosphere. Such gases and particles tend to block sunlight from reaching the Earth's land and ocean surfaces, resulting in cooling.

When Mt. Pinatubo erupted in 1991, that event alone caused global cooling by at least 0.4 C for nearly 3 years. Thick volume of ashes, smoke and gases that navigated around the globe several times, blocking sunlight. When it erupted, certains hours of the day in Metro Manila, Pampanga and nearby provinces became dark.

One friend, Winthrop Yu, wondered how much cooling a Mayon eruption would contribute. Should be small, maybe by only 0.0__ C, but cooling, nonetheless.

And we go back to the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4). On its "analysis" table, 8 out of 9 factors are anthropogenic (man-made), only 1 was natural, solar irradiance.

Whaaattt??? Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) don't contribute to the earth's climate? Volcanoes, water vapor, clouds, biosols, pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), other natural factors, do NOT contribute to the EArth's climate?

PDO cycles of cooling and warming average about 25 years. The warming phase is over, we're now entering the cooling phase.

Last September, NASA reported that there were 19 percent more GCRs in the Earth's atmosphere than last year. GCRs come from exploding stars from across the universe, within and outside our galaxy. They help create aerosols that become the "seeds" for more clouds.

The IPCC relied 100 percent of their climate predictions for the next 100 years on their global computer models (GCMs).

Seriously, anyone believes those computer models' predictive capacity of what will happen in the Philippines' weather, US weather, Europe weather, the world's weather, 1 or 2 weeks from now? For instance, the temperature range of hi-low, by Dec. 31, 2009? Because the IPCC's GCMs say they CAN predict the Earth's temperature range 90 or 100 years from now! And they have the figures, "best case" prediction of 4 C rise, max range of up to 6.4 C, by 2100!

Warming Hysteria: Galactic Cosmic Rays, UN FCCC

Global cooling – not warming – seems to be accelerating this year. Without going through scientific papers with their graphs, charts and greek equations, even without checking temperature data from surface stations (say PAGASA data for the Philippines) or from satellite data (say from UAH, RSS, Hadley). We just look around, look up the sky, especially, and recollect the weather since January up to September this year. It was cold in January to February, of course. Yet it was still cold in March up to Holy Week in early April. There were two typhoons in April, another two typhoons in May. March to May are officially “summer” months but it was mostly cloudy and rainy. One of my friends whose business is manufacturing and selling umbrellas and raincoats, told me that she’s been making money as early as April.

We now go to more objective and more scientific way of observing climate. In my article on September 10, Solar minimum and Copenhagen, I showed there a graph that compares global temperature from satellite data (UAH and RSS) and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration from 1979 to August 2009 (30 years period). The graph showed cooling of around 0.24 Celsius from 2002 to August 2009, whereas CO2 concentration keeps on rising, up to around 390 parts per million (ppm), from only around 285 ppm during the Industrial Revolution.

I argued that it was the weak Sun in the current deep solar minimum that allowed the entry of huge number of cosmic rays (coming from exploding stars) into the Earth’s atmosphere, the rays catalyze the formation of aerosols that form the nuclei for cloud formation. So weak Sun, plenty of cosmic rays, lots of cloud, sunlight is blocked from reaching the Earth’s surface, lots of rainfall, global cooling.

We will notice also that even if there are no typhoons, the sky is often dark as there are lots of clouds in the lower atmosphere (the troposphere). So when typhoon “Ondoy” (international name “Ketsana”) hit Metro Manila and neighboring provinces, the typhoon dumped huge volume of rains that inundated a wide area of the Philippines. As of this writing, nearly 300 people have been confirmed and counted as dead. There are many more missing, so the headcount should rise in the coming days.

After the typhoon, facebook and other social networking was also flooded with “blame global warming and climate change” posting by a number of people. I challenged almost all of my friends who posted such and argued that this is one proof that we are in a period of global cooling, not warming. And the weak Sun, not lots of CO2 in the air, is mainly responsible for this cooling or what the warmers would euphemistically call “global warming” as “climate change”.

Two days ago, a scientist at NASA, Dr. Tony Phillips, wrote a paper, "Cosmic rays hit space age high", where he noted that cosmic rays are +19 percent plentier or stronger this year than last year. The graph he showed just confirms the inverse relationship between solar activity and cosmic rays level. Cosmic rays have been steadily rising from 2001 up to 2009.

So now, one question that will crop up is, more cosmic rays this year, that's why there are lots of clouds in the sky? Partly Yes, but one Australian scientist that I have read, Dr. David Archibald (www.davidarchibald info) says that there is a lag of one year from the Sun's level of activity or inactivity, to the effect on cloud formation and volume.

So if we think that it is always cloudy these days and months, wait for next year. While solar minimum was also observed last year, the Sun is even weaker this year than last year. So the implication is, we will hardly see the Sun next year! Clouds will rule the sky, even during "summer" months of March-April-May, again!

On another note, a British astrophysicist, one of the scientists that I have heard during the 2nd International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC) in NYC last March, has practically predicted the wrath of typhoon “Ondoy”, about 3 weeks before Ondoy pummeled Metro Manila and the surrounding provinces.

In its Weather Action (WA) news no. 66 dated September 27, 2009, owner of independent weather forecasting firm WA, Dr. Piers Corbyn, reported that as solar cycle 24 (a solar cycle would last for 11 years on average) is starting from an extended solar cycle 23 (it lasted for more than 13 years), a lot of Sun-triggered extreme events would happen, including the last typhoon Ondoy. See
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=88&c=1.

Dr. Corbyn and his team do not rely on meteorological computer models. Instead, they watchthe Sun: sunspots, solar flares, solar magnetic field, the level of cosmic rays, etc. and predict the kind of weather disturbances that are likely to occur, where and when!

One may wonder, then why wouldn't the UN, UK, US, Philippine and other governments get his services to prepare themselves for big catastrophes? The quick answer that I can think of is this: the UN and all those governments believe in CO2-climate theory (actually just a hypothesis), they all hate the Sun-climate theory which Dr. Corbyn and many other astrophysicists and geologists explain. Those governments want only one thing: ecological central planning dream. They cannot regulate the Sun and cosmic rays from the outer universe, so they cannot implement their deep desire for more environmental regulations and ecological central planning.

Dr. Corbyn's services are for a fee, of course. He receives zero tax funding or subsidy for his scientific work and climate prediction services.

Today, the 16th typhoon of the year, “Pepeng” (international name “Parma”) is entering Cagayan province in the north. The typhoon was far from Metro Manila. Dark clouds did not seem to go away even after typhoon “Ondoy” left the country last September 27.

The thick volume of cosmic rays in the Earth’s atmosphere is causing lots of rainclouds, which later become heavy rainfall, which causes heavy flooding, and results in heavy human misery.

But certain sectors of society keep blaming global warming in the face of obvious cooling. The desire for more environmental regulations and taxation is way deep in the hearts and mind of these people. Lie if they must, fool if they must, corrupt science if they must, so long as they can have the power for more ecological central planning.


Major Actors in Ecological Central Planning

The UN FCCC meeting still ongoing in Bangkok, up to October 9. 
One of my friends posted this in her facebook account about an hour ago.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/24648/activists-answer-call-of-climate-talks?awesm=fbshare.me_35O.

The figures in that report showed, among others: About 3,000 climate bureaucrats from 190+ countries and about 1,500 climate activists in Bangkok! And both want ecological central planning, it's just that the former want a "milder" carbon emission cut, while the latter want as deep cut as possible. Can't we all go back to riding horses and bicycles? That seems to be at the back of the mind of many of the climate activists. 

I think far from the limelight, but applauding those central planning moves, are the climate bankers and traders. These are the likes of Goldman Sachs, etc. which made big money in carbon trading, which was about $128 billion in 2008 alone, from private corporations in EU, Japan, other rich countries.

It is an ugly alliance of big government + big activist NGOs + big rent-seeking banks and traders. They all say one thing: Over-regulate and overtax carbon, the Sun is dead as a climate driver, more climate bureaucracies, and approximate the Stone age lifestyle.

Anyway, I made this comment on her wall:

"Current 'deep solar minimum' for the century showed weak solar magnetic field, few sunspots, weak solar wind, so more galactic cosmic rays enter the Earth's atmosphere, which help catalyze the formation of low-lying clouds. More clouds, less sunlight that reach the Earth's surface more rainfall, global cooling.

Cooling started in solar cycle 23 (up to early this year), the Sun has very similar behavior with solar cycle 4. Dalton Minimum occured in solar cycles 5 and 6. So the projection is that solar cycles 24 (current cycle) and 25, corresponding to 2 1/2 decades, period of cooling. 

How many climate bureaucrats and activists understand that?"