Climate Tricks 66, Ignoring the implications of worsening cosmic rays situation

For those who keep believing that global warming and climate change is anthropogenic or man-made, who believe that they can "fight" GW and CC via more government, more UN, more carbon taxes, more renewables cronyism, more climate bureaucracies, more global climate meetings, please widen your mind. Natural or nature-made GW and CC is factual than CO2-is-pollutant-evil drama.

https://www.thegwpf.com/content/uploads/2018/03/SvensmarkLondon2018.pdf

More galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), more cloud cover, more cooling of the planet. Conversely, less GCRs, less clouds, more warming of the planet.

More stories here:

(1) https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/03/05/the-worsening-cosmic-ray-situation/

The Worsening Cosmic Ray Situation

MARCH 5, 2018 / DR.TONY PHILLIPS

March 5, 2018: Cosmic rays are bad–and they’re getting worse.

That’s the conclusion of a new paper just published in the research journal Space Weather. The authors, led by Prof. Nathan Schwadron of the University of New Hampshire, show that radiation from deep space is dangerous and intensifying faster than previously expected….

(2) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017SW001803

Update on the worsening particle radiation environment observed by CRaTER and implications for future human deep‐space exploration*

N. A. Schwadron  F. Rahmanifard  J. Wilson  A. P. Jordan  H. E. Spence  C. J. Joyce  J. B. Blake A. W. Case  W. de Wet  W. M. Farrell  J. C. Kasper  M. D. Looper  N. Lugaz  L. Mays  ... See all authors

First published: 22 February 2018

Abstract

Over the last decade, the solar wind has exhibited low densities and magnetic field strengths, representing anomalous states that have never been observed during the space age. As discussed by Schwadron et al. (2014a), the cycle 23–24 solar activity led to the longest solar minimum in more than 80 years and continued into the “mini” solar maximum of cycle 24. During this weak activity, we observed galactic cosmic ray fluxes that exceeded the levels observed throughout the space age, and we observed small solar energetic particle events. Here, we provide an update to the Schwadron et al (2014a) observations from the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO)….

(3) https://link.springer.com/article/10.3103/S1062873817020411?

Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics

February 2017, Volume 81, Issue 2, pp 252–254 | Cite as

Cosmic rays, solar activity, and changes in the Earth’s climate

Authors: Y. I. StozhkovEmail authorG. A. BazilevskayaV. S. MakhmutovN. S. SvirzhevskyA. K. SvirzhevskayaV. I. LogachevV. P. Okhlopkov

Proceedings of the 34th All-Russian Conference on Cosmic Rays

First Online: 08 March 2017

Abstract

One of the most important problems facing humanity, global climate change, is discussed. The roles of cosmic ray fluxes and solar activity in this process are analyzed. Although several mechanisms explaining global climate change have been proposed, none of them are firmly grounded. At the United Nations summit in Paris at the end of 2015, it was decided that greenhouse gases are responsible for the global warming of our planet. However, the authors of this work believe the question of what causes global changes in the Earth’s climate remains open, and will obviously be solved once and for all in the next 10–15 years.

(4) https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonconstable/2018/03/13/how-the-suns-activity-could-auger-an-economic-change/#3b7cca5734dc

MAR 13, 2018 @ 09:11 AM

How Activity On The Sun Could Change The Economy

Simon Constable , CONTRIBUTOR

The question is whether we will enter another grand solar minimum just like the Maunder minimum which if history is a guide would mean a period of much colder weather winters and summers. More than a few experts with whom I speak regularly believe that we shall enter such a grand minimum along with the resulting bone-chilling weather.

If that happens, then there will be profound influences on the economy, including possible crop failures and rising energy use for home and workplace heating. Or in other words, expect bigger bills for food and energy. After a period in which the supply of both has been increasingly abundant then this change will likely come as a shock to many people and likely the broader global economy as well.

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See also:
Climate Tricks 63, The search for huge climate money in COP 23, November 26, 2017 
Climate Tricks 64, Bitter cold and snow are caused by AGW, January 06, 2018 
Climate Tricks 65, "Last chance" to save the planet stories, 1992-2018, March 16, 2018

Climate Tricks 15: AGW Fiction, Avoiding Natural Climate Drivers

After the heavy flooding suffered by millions of people in Metro Manila and many other provinces over early this week, a friend in facebook posted this the other day and dared a debate. I asked his permission to post the exchange in this blog, zero alteration, pure copy-paste, he did not reply, a silent No.

In the spirit of making this debate become more transparent to others who care to read and learn, I am posting portions of the exchanges, but I removed the names. So readers, focus on the message and arguments, not the names. This is the original challenge by S:

Now that things are starting to normalize, I would like to hear anybody who would dispute that climate change is just a political ploy of "watermelon" (their words, not mine) environmentalists to ask more money, and demand more government intervention.

Nonoy Oplas Climate change is natural, warming-cooling-warming-cooling. We're in a period of global cooling, hence, more rains, more flood, and worse to come, http://funwithgovernment.blogspot.com/2012/05/climate-tricks-8-catastrophic-scare-for.html

Government and Taxes: Climate Tricks 8: Catastrophic Scare for Climate Money

funwithgovernment.blogspot.com 

S It's a natural cycle, yes. But it is being hastened by human behavior, especially now with increased industrial activities.

PM: we are not in a period of global cooling. ang mga sobrang rainfall ay dala rin ng global warming, tulad ng paglamig ng ibang lugar dahil natutunaw ang mga yelo. kaya lately ay mas ginagamit na ang "climate change" kaysa "global warming" para hindi na ma-confuse.

Nonoy Oplas It's obvious you did not check the paper I posted. Explain the following:
a. absence of causality, if any, between flat-lining global temp while CO2 concentration is rising.
b. rule out explicitly, the effect of natural factors like the Sun and GCRs on climate.

PM  sorry, mr. oplas, pero i think you should submit your paper (though puro kopya lang sa kung anu-anong source) to the UNFCCC to prove your point. i've been to their sessions and intersessionals at laging durog sa diskusyon ang mga nagsasabi ng mga sinasabi mo.

Nonoy Oplas PM, explain (a) absence of causality, if any, between flat-lining global temp while CO2 concentration is rising.
(b) rule out explicitly, the effect of natural factors like the Sun and GCRs on climate.
Here's more, http://funwithgovernment.blogspot.com/2012/01/climate-tricks-2-solar-activities-tsi.html

Government and Taxes: Climate Tricks 2: Solar Activities (TSI, Ap index, Neutrons) Don't Matter

funwithgovernment.blogspot.com

Climate stupidity 10: The Sun and GCRs don't affect climate?

In the last UN IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4), this is the summary of radiative forcing (RF, externally-imposed global energy imbalances) values, in Watts per square meter (W/sq.m.). Meaning, these are the anthropogenic (man-caused) and natural (the Sun's total solar irradiance, TSI) factors that influence planet Earth's climate (warming or cooling).

According to the IPCC AR4, net anthropogenic forcing was 1.6 W/sq.m. while solar forcing was only 0.12 W/sq.m., no other natural factors considered. In short, anthropogenic sources of warming was about 13x larger than the Sun's potential contribution. And the world said "AMEN" to the supposedly "scientific consensus". So, since humanity's modernization is evil, then the UN and many governments shall limit, over-regulate and over-tax energy sources that caused such "unprecedented global warming."

This "consensus" is challenged by more and more scientists (especially physicists, geologists and climatologists) since the IPCC has been producing its Assessment Reports, especially AR4 (released in November 2007). According to this group of scientists, the two main natural factors that the IPCC deliberately omitted and significantly underrated significance, are (a) galactic cosmic rays (GCRs, shown in this illustration), and (b) the Sun, as indicated by the TSI. (a) was omitted while (b) was underrated.

There was a press release last month, Scientists at Aarhus University (AU) and the National Space Institute (DTU Space) show that particles from space create cloud cover. (H/t to WUWT's
New study links cosmic rays to aerosols/cloud formation via solar magnetic activity modulation).

Here, 5 scientists from Denmark's AU and DTU Space showed in their paper published in Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) that GCRS -- charged particles like protons, electrons, other particles -- can create small floating particles, aka aerosols, in the atmosphere, that help form clouds. More GCRs, more aerosols, more clouds, more shortwave (SW) radiation or sunlight reflected back into space by the clouds, less warming (or more cooling).

Now a famous climatologist, Dr. Roy Spencer, wrote yesterday, Indirect Solar Forcing of Climate by Galactic Cosmic Rays: An Observational Estimate. He admitted that before, he did not believe the GCRs-Sun-climate theory. But upon investigation of the high GCR count in Russia, he plotted the data with reflected SW (low cloud increase) and long wave (LW) emission, and he came up with this preliminary results:

for a 1,000 count increase in GCR activity as measured at Moscow, there appears to be:

(1) an increase in reflected sunlight (SW) of 0.64 Watts per sq. meter, probably mostly due to an increase in low cloud cover;
(2) virtually no change in emitted infrared (LW) of +0.02 Watts per sq. meter;
(3) a Net (reflected sunlight plus emitted infrared) effect of 0.55 Watts per sq. meter loss in radiant energy by the global climate system.

He concluded that "the cosmic ray (indirect) forcing is about 2.8 times that of the solar irradiance (direct) forcing. This means the total (direct + indirect) solar forcing on climate associated with the solar cycle could be 3.8 times that most mainstream climate scientists believe."

The implication is that there is "a much larger role for Mother Nature in climate change than the IPCC has been willing to admit. And the greater the role of Nature in causing past climate change, the smaller the role humans must have had, which could then have a profound impact on future projections of human-caused global warming."

And here we are still stuck with fighting various governments' various energy and environmental regulations and taxation, upon the plodding and cheating by the UN IPCC, FCCC, UNEP, WMO, other UN bodies. Political science is proven once more, to be a lot more powerful than hard climate science.
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On November 25, 2010, I wrote this,

Sun-GCRs-clouds-climate theory

This illustration simplifies the relationship between an active (or inactive) Sun and planet Earth's climate of global warming or global cooling. This picture is from Something to be thankful for! At last: Cosmic rays linked to rapid mid-latitude cloud changes

The blog post is about a paper, "Cosmic rays linked to rapid mid-latitude cloud changes" by B. A. Laken , D. R. Kniveton, and M. R. Frogley. Portions of the Abstract says,

The effect of the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) flux on Earth’s climate is highly uncertain. Using a novel sampling approach based around observing periods of significant cloud changes, a statistically robust relationship is identified between short-term GCR flux changes and the most rapid mid-latitude (60°–30° N/S) cloud decreases operating over daily timescales; this signal is verified in surface level air temperature (SLAT) reanalysis data.... These results provide perhaps the most compelling evidence presented thus far of a GCR-climate relationship. From this analysis we conclude that a GCR-climate relationship is governed by both short-term GCR changes and internal atmospheric precursor conditions.

There you go. GCRs from exploding stars in the universe -- stars are born, stars are dying, endlessly, in our ever-dynamic universe -- help produce the "seeds" in cloud formation. More GCRs, more clouds, less sunlight, global cooling. This illustration explains it further.

Henrik Svensmark from Denmark was among the physicists who made that theory. My picture with Dr. Svensmark last May this year, during the Heartland Institute's 4th ICCC in Chicago. He's in the middle. Beside him is a German friend, Wolfgang Muller of IUF-Berlin.

And here's a graph about the inverse relationship between GCRs and Sunspot number (SSN) in each solar cycle. Active Sun has more SSN, which reduces GCRs in the Earth's atmosphere, with reduces the cloud cover.

Most warmers are either ignorant, or are denying, the important role of the Sun on our planet's climate. They are so dead-set on ecological socialism -- more environmental regulations, more energy taxation, more carbon trading, more global junkets, more money transfer from rich countries to poorer countries, more climate bureaucracies -- with them as mediators.
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And on February 09, 2011, I also wrote this:

SC 24 and Dalton Minimum Pattern

Here's the latest graph of total solar irradiance (TSI), active region count from Dr. Leif Svalgaard, a solar physicist. Graph is from WUWT's Solar images and data page.

Current solar cycle (SC) 24 is now behaving almost exactly, if not weaker, than SC 5, the start of Dalton Minimum global cooling in the 1800s. With expected solar maximum of only 100+ TSI sometime in 2013-14, this is indeed a very weak SC. The comparison of TSI number, about two years after the transition from the previous SC -- in SCs 22and 23, SC 24 really shows a meek Sun.

Warming fanatics do not have this kind of literature -- the role of the Sun in the Earth's climate of warming-cooling-warming-cooling cycles. Solar data are publicly available, free, and updated daily or weekly. But fixation with the "evil CO2", a very useful gas that we humans exhale, a useful gas that our vegetables, rice, flowers and trees use to produce their own food, makes them ignorant about the Sun and other natural factors that can influence planet Earth's climate.

At 342 watts per sq. meter solar energy reaching our planet, it is indeed a huge source of warming. So that a reduction of solar power from 342 to only 340 w/sq.m. would have some significant effect on our planet's climate.

Warming Hysteria: Galactic Cosmic Rays, UN FCCC

Global cooling – not warming – seems to be accelerating this year. Without going through scientific papers with their graphs, charts and greek equations, even without checking temperature data from surface stations (say PAGASA data for the Philippines) or from satellite data (say from UAH, RSS, Hadley). We just look around, look up the sky, especially, and recollect the weather since January up to September this year. It was cold in January to February, of course. Yet it was still cold in March up to Holy Week in early April. There were two typhoons in April, another two typhoons in May. March to May are officially “summer” months but it was mostly cloudy and rainy. One of my friends whose business is manufacturing and selling umbrellas and raincoats, told me that she’s been making money as early as April.

We now go to more objective and more scientific way of observing climate. In my article on September 10, Solar minimum and Copenhagen, I showed there a graph that compares global temperature from satellite data (UAH and RSS) and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration from 1979 to August 2009 (30 years period). The graph showed cooling of around 0.24 Celsius from 2002 to August 2009, whereas CO2 concentration keeps on rising, up to around 390 parts per million (ppm), from only around 285 ppm during the Industrial Revolution.

I argued that it was the weak Sun in the current deep solar minimum that allowed the entry of huge number of cosmic rays (coming from exploding stars) into the Earth’s atmosphere, the rays catalyze the formation of aerosols that form the nuclei for cloud formation. So weak Sun, plenty of cosmic rays, lots of cloud, sunlight is blocked from reaching the Earth’s surface, lots of rainfall, global cooling.

We will notice also that even if there are no typhoons, the sky is often dark as there are lots of clouds in the lower atmosphere (the troposphere). So when typhoon “Ondoy” (international name “Ketsana”) hit Metro Manila and neighboring provinces, the typhoon dumped huge volume of rains that inundated a wide area of the Philippines. As of this writing, nearly 300 people have been confirmed and counted as dead. There are many more missing, so the headcount should rise in the coming days.

After the typhoon, facebook and other social networking was also flooded with “blame global warming and climate change” posting by a number of people. I challenged almost all of my friends who posted such and argued that this is one proof that we are in a period of global cooling, not warming. And the weak Sun, not lots of CO2 in the air, is mainly responsible for this cooling or what the warmers would euphemistically call “global warming” as “climate change”.

Two days ago, a scientist at NASA, Dr. Tony Phillips, wrote a paper, "Cosmic rays hit space age high", where he noted that cosmic rays are +19 percent plentier or stronger this year than last year. The graph he showed just confirms the inverse relationship between solar activity and cosmic rays level. Cosmic rays have been steadily rising from 2001 up to 2009.

So now, one question that will crop up is, more cosmic rays this year, that's why there are lots of clouds in the sky? Partly Yes, but one Australian scientist that I have read, Dr. David Archibald (www.davidarchibald info) says that there is a lag of one year from the Sun's level of activity or inactivity, to the effect on cloud formation and volume.

So if we think that it is always cloudy these days and months, wait for next year. While solar minimum was also observed last year, the Sun is even weaker this year than last year. So the implication is, we will hardly see the Sun next year! Clouds will rule the sky, even during "summer" months of March-April-May, again!

On another note, a British astrophysicist, one of the scientists that I have heard during the 2nd International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC) in NYC last March, has practically predicted the wrath of typhoon “Ondoy”, about 3 weeks before Ondoy pummeled Metro Manila and the surrounding provinces.

In its Weather Action (WA) news no. 66 dated September 27, 2009, owner of independent weather forecasting firm WA, Dr. Piers Corbyn, reported that as solar cycle 24 (a solar cycle would last for 11 years on average) is starting from an extended solar cycle 23 (it lasted for more than 13 years), a lot of Sun-triggered extreme events would happen, including the last typhoon Ondoy. See
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=88&c=1.

Dr. Corbyn and his team do not rely on meteorological computer models. Instead, they watchthe Sun: sunspots, solar flares, solar magnetic field, the level of cosmic rays, etc. and predict the kind of weather disturbances that are likely to occur, where and when!

One may wonder, then why wouldn't the UN, UK, US, Philippine and other governments get his services to prepare themselves for big catastrophes? The quick answer that I can think of is this: the UN and all those governments believe in CO2-climate theory (actually just a hypothesis), they all hate the Sun-climate theory which Dr. Corbyn and many other astrophysicists and geologists explain. Those governments want only one thing: ecological central planning dream. They cannot regulate the Sun and cosmic rays from the outer universe, so they cannot implement their deep desire for more environmental regulations and ecological central planning.

Dr. Corbyn's services are for a fee, of course. He receives zero tax funding or subsidy for his scientific work and climate prediction services.

Today, the 16th typhoon of the year, “Pepeng” (international name “Parma”) is entering Cagayan province in the north. The typhoon was far from Metro Manila. Dark clouds did not seem to go away even after typhoon “Ondoy” left the country last September 27.

The thick volume of cosmic rays in the Earth’s atmosphere is causing lots of rainclouds, which later become heavy rainfall, which causes heavy flooding, and results in heavy human misery.

But certain sectors of society keep blaming global warming in the face of obvious cooling. The desire for more environmental regulations and taxation is way deep in the hearts and mind of these people. Lie if they must, fool if they must, corrupt science if they must, so long as they can have the power for more ecological central planning.


Major Actors in Ecological Central Planning

The UN FCCC meeting still ongoing in Bangkok, up to October 9. 
One of my friends posted this in her facebook account about an hour ago.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/24648/activists-answer-call-of-climate-talks?awesm=fbshare.me_35O.

The figures in that report showed, among others: About 3,000 climate bureaucrats from 190+ countries and about 1,500 climate activists in Bangkok! And both want ecological central planning, it's just that the former want a "milder" carbon emission cut, while the latter want as deep cut as possible. Can't we all go back to riding horses and bicycles? That seems to be at the back of the mind of many of the climate activists. 

I think far from the limelight, but applauding those central planning moves, are the climate bankers and traders. These are the likes of Goldman Sachs, etc. which made big money in carbon trading, which was about $128 billion in 2008 alone, from private corporations in EU, Japan, other rich countries.

It is an ugly alliance of big government + big activist NGOs + big rent-seeking banks and traders. They all say one thing: Over-regulate and overtax carbon, the Sun is dead as a climate driver, more climate bureaucracies, and approximate the Stone age lifestyle.

Anyway, I made this comment on her wall:

"Current 'deep solar minimum' for the century showed weak solar magnetic field, few sunspots, weak solar wind, so more galactic cosmic rays enter the Earth's atmosphere, which help catalyze the formation of low-lying clouds. More clouds, less sunlight that reach the Earth's surface more rainfall, global cooling.

Cooling started in solar cycle 23 (up to early this year), the Sun has very similar behavior with solar cycle 4. Dalton Minimum occured in solar cycles 5 and 6. So the projection is that solar cycles 24 (current cycle) and 25, corresponding to 2 1/2 decades, period of cooling. 

How many climate bureaucrats and activists understand that?"