Sunday, May 20, 2018

AsPac markets, PH and ID worst performing ytd

As-Pac stockmarkets as of last Friday closing:

(1) Year to date (ytd, January 1 to May 18), worst performing are PH (-10.4%) and ID (-9%); best performing are HK (3.8%) and MY (3.2%).

(2) 52 weeks (May 18, 2017 to May 18, 2018), worst records are Sri Lanka (-3.8%) and PH (-1.2%); best records are HK (23.3%) and DJ CN (19.2%).

(3) Past 3 years (May 2015 to May 2018), worst achievers are Shanghai (-9.3%) and Sri Lanka (-3.6%); best achievers are NZ (14.5%) and India (8%). PH down, -1%. Gains of the previous admin so far have been erased by the current admin.


Source: WSJ.com

Notice that Indonesia wants to overtake the PH as worst performer ytd, why? My Indonesian friend, Dr. Aco Patunru has a quick explanation -- recent bombing, military (and paramilitary) shows of force, anti-import rhetorics etc.

Rising world oil prices and US rate hikes cannot be the reasons because these affect all countries not just PH and ID and yet other countries are not so adversely affected. The main explanations should be internal/domestic. In the PH, it's the continuing Du30 indirect attacks on business -- closure of Boracay for six months, high taxes on energy (oil, lpg, coal, VAT on transmission), other products, continuing uncertainty due to TRAIN 2, recent diplomatic war with Kuwait, etc. 

(See also: AsPac markets after the Korea Summit, April 30, 2018)

Wednesday, May 16, 2018

BWorld 210, Electricity competition, EPIRA, and WESM

* This is my article in BusinessWorld last week, May 09, 2018.


Last Monday, I discussed business competition in general and the role of the Philippine Competition Commission (PCC).

The theme will be continued in this piece and it will discuss electricity competition in particular, especially after I was able to interview PCC Chairman Arsenio Balisacan, the CEO of the Philippine Electricity Market Corp. (PEMC) and Chairman of Transition Committee Oscar Ala and PEMC Spokesperson Atty. Nino Juan.

The Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA) of 2001 or RA 9136 has drastically liberalized the Philippines electricity sector with at least three important provisions: (1) deregulation and demonopolization of the power generation sector, (2) creation of the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM), and (3) liberalization and demonopolization of electricity distribution via Retail Competition and Open Access (RCOA).

With these and other provisions of EPIRA, the questions to ask, among others would be:

(1) Were there many private generation companies (gencos) that entered the market competing with each other?

(2) Were there many retail electricity suppliers (RES) that entered the market competing with each other?

(3) Were there many players, gencos and distributors, that use the WESM spot market competition? And more importantly, (4) Have electricity prices for consumers gone down?

The short answer is YES to all four questions.

For gencos for instance, before EPIRA, the National Power Corp. (Napocor) was the state-owned power generation monopoly, which also incurred huge losses and public debts for many years.

As of April 2018, there were 113 gencos in the Luzon-Visayas grid alone and all of them are WESM participants. Excluded are gencos in the Mindanao grid which is not part of WESM yet. Of these 113 gencos, five players have become more efficient and more moneyed than others, except perhaps the government-owned Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corporation (PSALM), which still owns previous Napocor-owned power plants, mostly hydro facilities in Mindanao and the Malaya plant in Rizal.

For retail competition, the number of contestable customers (CCs) or those with monthly peak demand of 750 KW or higher and have the freedom to pick their own service providers — such as electric cooperatives (ECs) and private distribution utilities (DUs) — have increased. RCOA implementation however, has been issued an indefinite TRO by the Supreme Court in February 2017 and this resulted in a decline in number of CCs.


Here are the numbers for comparative electricity prices that include two types of customers, the captive market (small consumers who must stay with their DUs or ECs) and contestable market (they can leave their DUs or ECs and choose their own RES).


Contestable customers are able to enjoy lower average prices, P6.91/kWh, than captive customers that pay an average price of P7.78/kWh.

So there you see it.

Despite the noise created by certain sectors that EPIRA and WESM are not working, which leads them to call for a return to the old scheme of nationalization, these data show that indeed electricity competition is working.

It is true that Philippine electricity prices in general remain higher than most of our neighbors in the region but that is because of other factors like (a) many taxes especially the high VAT of 12% applied in all parts of the electricity supply chain, from generation to transmission, distribution and supply, even the system loss; (b) many charges in our monthly electricity bill including universal charge, system loss charge, feed-in-tariff (FiT) for favored renewables.

The transition of PEMC, the market operator of WESM, into a real Independent Market Operator (IMO) as explicitly specified in EPIRA may soon become a reality.

As a result, there will be no more government energy agencies and bureaucracies at the PEMC Board. Good work, PEMC Transition Team.
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See also:

TRAIN, DOF and AER

The DOF/Dutertenomics and what I think is its front-NGO, Action for Economic Reforms (AER). Very vocal and noisy in tax-tax-tax (oil, lpg, cars, coal, sugar, cigarettes, etc; expanded VAT), saying that TRAIN will not be inflationary and any inflationary impact is just bogeyman (panakot lang) and not real. Now vocal in supporting TRAIN 2 and defending TRAIN 1.

If you guys are noisy at raising oil taxes, you should be equally noisy at making fare hike adjustments because you know that high oil prices will result 100% in the need for higher fares. But you are silent. You know that fare hikes will result in even higher inflation rate. And January 2019 oil and coal tax hike Part 2 is near. Sometimes Govt and "non-govt" like AER can be similar or one and the same?

See this news story:
  
The burden of TRAIN law on Filipino mothers
Eloisa Lopez
Published 11:37 PM, May 13, 2018  Updated 11:38 PM, May 13, 2018

"Sobrang laki ng pinagbago," Nancy said. "Ibang-iba talaga. Halos lahat ng bilihin nagtaas." (It has changed a lot... It's really different. Almost all items became more expensive.)

One crate of 12-ounce Coca Cola products now retails for P132, from P108. A tank of gas is now sold from P600-650, as opposed to the former P450."

I believe that instead of calling for suspension of TRAIN 1, TRAIN 2 should reverse some of the ugly provisions of TRAIN 1 like oil-lpg-coal tax hikes. But AER has none of it, they argue to retain those tax hikes and blame something else like high world oil prices, etc.

Keep the TRAIN on track
May 13, 2018 | 8:26 pm
Yellow Pad By Zak Yuson

Many of the AER officials are anti-Du30 drugs war, anti-China a__licking, good. But they really believe that Du30's additional tax money via TRAIN won't be used to bribe legislators and SC people to remove the CJ, Ombudsman? That TRAIN money won't be used to contract big loans and favors from the China communist dictatorial government?

Anti-Du30 but pro-Du30? Nahihilo siguro.

AER has a weekly column in BWorld, "Yellow Pad." I think 95% of their column is about singing rah-rah-rah, tax-tax-pah.

If Dutertenomics simply cut the personal income tax, they simply corrected the historical injustice of CTRP of 1997, they would have won the hearts and minds of many people including the anti-Du30 groups, me included. But they were tax-hungry with all sorts of bleeding heart arguments why they want more transfer of money from private pockets to government pockets.

In the earlier debate bet IBON/Bayaan Mo Na ("TRAIN is pro-rich, anti-poor") and AER ("TRAIN is pro-poor, anti-rich"), both are wrong. TRAIN is anti-rich, anti-poor, only pro-government.

TRAIN is also pro-China communist government. Big integrated PPP projects were reversed by Duterte to become hybrid PPP so that the construction phase can be given to China contractors, O&M to be given to Filipino contractors. TRAIN money will make sure that new big loans with China will be paid in the future.

Even my haircut cost in a public market barber shop, the P40 (non-aircon, open air with electric fan) has become P50. The air-con haircut rose from P50 to P70. People raise their own prices because their cost of living has increased anywhere.

From IEA and WHO data, as of 2015 estimates showed that some 61 M Filipinos or 60% of total households were still using firewood/charcoal for cooking, lighting, ironing, other energy needs. Cheaper oil and LPG allowed many poor households to use LPG for cooking, this saved perhaps millions of trees from being butchered, the price of charcoal or uling declined. With recent world oil price hikes + tax-tax-tax of TRAIN, LPG prices rose, many poor people are going back to using charcoal and firewood, indicated by the rising prices of charcoal -- about P100-120/sack in 2017, now P130-150/sack. This means millions of trees will be stolen and butchered in the public forest lands.

And the "raise oil taxes to save the planet" bleeding hearts now implicitly argue for killing many trees "to save the planet"? Lousy hypo___s.

Source: IEA, SE Asia Energy Outlook 2017, p. 41.

Inquirer business reporter and a friend Ben de Vera twitted his story,

DOF: No collateral for China loans
By: Ben O. de Vera - Reporter / @bendeveraINQ Philippine Daily Inquirer / 05:10 AM May 15, 2018

Ben posted it on twitter, I replied:

@Noysky  Replying to @bendeveraINQ @DOF_PH @SecSonnySays

Come on DOF, #TRAIN tax-tax-tax is the collateral. Our oil, lpg, cars, coal power, electricity transmission, sugary drinks, etc are rising bec of current spending and future spending to pay more China loans. Why is the #DOF evasive about this?

From the above Inquirer report,

"We borrowed $200 million, there was no collateral,” Dominguez said, referring to the Philippines’ first-ever panda bond issuance.

In March, 1.46 billion renminbi or about P12 billion in three-year panda bonds were issued by the government in China at a “tight” yield of 5 percent."

At 5% interest rates -- DOF will need more tax-tax-tax so that present and future generations of Filipino taxpayers will be able to pay those expensive China loans. Because Du30 told the DOF and Dutertenomists to get more loans from China? And some NGOs like AER would justify all tax-tax-tax by Duterte? Magaleeeng.

Tuesday, May 15, 2018

BWorld 209, Is the PCC a facilitator or a hindrance to business competition?

* This is my column in BusinessWorld last May 07, 2018.


Even before the various competition bills in Congress ultimately became the Philippine Competition Act (PCA) of 2015 or RA 10667, I have been asking myself this question.

After all, I have observed that the main creator of monopolies and oligopolies is the government itself through constitutional restrictions on public utilities and creation of “natural monopolies” like electricity transmission and distribution, water distribution, which, in turn, require congressional franchises.

Other monopolies or oligopolies are created by various agencies, like airline routes (CAB franchise), shipping routes (MARINA franchise), telecommunications (NTC franchise or permit), jeepney and bus line route (LTFRB franchise), tricycle route (LGU franchise).

So the basic question would be: What can the Philippine Competition Commission (PCC) do to limit or curtail the granting of such state-created monopolies and oligopolies?

Last week, I interviewed PCC Chairman Arsenio Balisacan in his office. Sir Arsi is a friend and was my former teacher in the ’90s at the graduate program of UP School of Economics on the subject of Development Economics. [The discussion between Mssrs. Oplas and Balisacan, which covered several topics, will be uploaded on BusinessWorld’s YouTube channel soon. — Ed.]

My opening question to him was a light one, “Do many people mistake the PCC with a racing or sports commission?” He smiled and answered that it seems to be a common misconception for many people especially in non-urban areas, they ask what sports competition the PCC is promoting.

The confusion may be understandable as there are 16 Commissions under the Office of the President alone. These are the Commissions on: Climate Change (CCC), Filipinos Overseas (CFO), Filipino Language (CFL), Higher Education (CHED), Anti-Poverty (NAPC), Culture (NCCP), History (NHCP), Indigenous Peoples (NCIP), Muslim Filipinos (NCMF), Pasig River (PRRC), Women (PCM), Racing (PRC), Sports (PSC), Urban Poor (PCUP), Youth (NYC), and the PCC.

I checked the latest report of the World Economic Forum (WEF), the Global Competitiveness Report (GCR) 2017-2018, to see how competitive the Philippine economy is and by extension, the domestic private businesses, compared to its neighbors in East Asia.

Out of 137 countries and economies covered, the Philippines ranked 56th overall. And of the 12 pillars of the GCR, the Philippines scored high in pillar #2 Macroeconomic environment (22nd) and pillar #10 Market size (27th).

But the country scored very low in three pillars: #1 Institutions (Irregular payments and bribes, Favoritism in decisions of government officials, Burden of government regulations, Reliability of police services…); #2 Infrastructure (roads, railroads, ports, air transport,…) and #6 Goods Market Efficiency (Extent of market dominance, Effectiveness of anti-monopoly policy, Number of procedures to start a business, Time to start a business, Burden of customs procedures), (see table).


There is a direct relationship between a competitive economy and its prosperity, and given the relative smallness of the Philippine economy, what seems to be “big” corporations domestically can be small or medium-size compared to the corporations in our East Asian neighbors.

The PCC checks and prohibits three major acts and behavior: (1) Anti-competitive agreements like price fixing/collusion, bid rigging, output limitations, and market sharing; (2) Abuse of dominant position and market power like predatory pricing, discriminatory pricing, exploitative behavior towards consumers and competitors, and limiting production, markets or technological development; and (3) Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) that restrict or lessen competition in the market.

These point to two important issues.

One, the PCC is concerned only with behaviors of existing competing players but does not cover behaviors of state-created monopolies.

And two, many of those behaviors rendered “anti-competitive” are generally short-term and never long-term, so the imposition of penalties may be a question mark.

Take price discrimination or “price differentiation” and “market segmentation” in economics. This is perfectly normal in market competition as the supplier is optimizing revenues from customers with different needs and different budget or resources. Thus, higher prices are set for those deemed wealthy and lower prices for those financially struggling.

In price fixing/collusion, players here may be digging their own graves as they antagonize customers and invite new players that can quickly provide the goods and services at lower prices. If this happens, the collusion can quickly break up and the old players would try to secure their previous market share eaten by the new player/s.

Competition requires innovation, lots of it in terms of product and service quality, variety, marketing and pricing. Player X’s prices compared to its competitors would look “predatory” yesterday, “collusive” today, and “excessive” tomorrow and these are all fine. Those prices can roller coaster at temporary and short-term durations. New players would tend to give low introductory prices to attract many new customers while innovators would tend to give high prices to recoup their high investments in product R&D, consumers survey, and marketing/promotions.

According to the WEF Executive Opinion Survey 2017, the “Most problematic factors for doing business” in the Philippines are: (1) Inefficient government bureaucracy, (2) Inadequate supply of infrastructure, (3) Corruption, (4) Tax regulations, (5) Tax rates, and (6) Policy instability.

So, is the PCC a facilitator or hindrance to overall business competition in the Philippines?

For me, it’s a tie.

The PCC can be a potential hindrance because its long list of prohibitive acts can be additional deterrent to potential players that are already wary of the corrupt bureaucracy, government-created monopolies, poor infrastructure, high tax rates, and policy instabilities.

But it also has two important functions that can facilitate competition.

One, it gives information to potential and incoming players on how they will be treated in case existing players, foreign and local, will charge and accuse them of “anti-competitive” behavior. And two, it can coordinate with other sectoral regulatory agencies and temper their itchiness to regulate, restrict and prohibit as PCC has the overall view of the degree of competition in the country.
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See also:

China Watch 28, Duterte sailing to PH Rise in the east when dispute is in the west

My friend from UP Diliman days in the 80s, Jose Antonio Custodio posted this in his fb wall yesterday:

Dear Armed Forces of the Philippines,

As your naval units steam eastward at Benham Rise covered by your air assets and away from the main operational area of the West Philippine Sea towards the general direction of the United States of America, while led by your deranged commander in chief, let me just say that is the best example of an advance in the opposite direction.

Rest assured this masterful operation will result in hordes of Chinese dying....
...of laughter at the irony of it all.

The AFP is following the DDS -- Duterte Dishonesty in the Sea? There is no territorial dispute at the Benham/PH Rise, why should the President go there? The big territorial and political dispute is in the WPS/SCS, why not go there?

I think one answer is what Jose pointed out -- Du30 wants many Chinese communist leaders to die... of laughing.

See these news reports:

Palace: Duterte’s Benham Rise visit set for May 15-16
Published May 8, 2018 12:18pm

In the two reports below, another friend from UP in the 80s, Prof. Jay Batongbacal of UP College of Law is quoted.

Duterte's PH rise visit 'unfortunate' - maritime expert
ABS-CBN News, Posted at May 09 2018 11:00 AM

From PH Rise, Duterte urged to proceed to Panatag, WPS
Philippine Daily Inquirer / 07:04 AM May 12, 2018

Some background reports:

China installs cruise missiles on South China Sea outposts: CNBC
Reuters Staff MAY 3, 2018 / 7:48 AM /

China deploys military aircraft, 15 warships in Spratlys
Jaime Laude (The Philippine Star) - May 11, 2018 - 12:00am


Now this pronouncement is weird. It should come from the AFP commander in chief (CIC), the President, not from the AFP chief of staff (COS).

AFP vows to protect PH claims in Spratlys amid China buildup
By: Frances G. Mangosing - @inquirerdotnet INQUIRER.net / 04:46 PM May 14, 2018

The AFP cannot even patrol at the WPS/SCS because the CIC does not want them to go there, then the COS pronounces like that. Pang dyaryo/media epek lang. Ayaw ni CIC, ano magagawa ni COS? eh di mag press release na lang.

Classic case of a state not doing its function of protecting its own territory from a bully neighbor. In this case, the China communist dictatorial government. See this developed artificial island at Zamora Reef in the Spratlys, now fully controlled by China. Photo from the Inquirer.


Additional story,

China’s missiles in the South China Sea mean girding for war
By ROBERT E. MCCOY MAY 14, 2018 12:55 PM (UTC+8)
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See also:

Friday, May 11, 2018

BWorld 208, Consumer choice in electricity supply and prices

* This is my column in BusinessWorld on April 30, 2018.


In several statistics comparing electricity prices in Asia, the Philippines often ranks as the third most expensive in Asia next to Japan, Singapore, or Hong Kong.

Here are numbers from three different sources: (1) The Lantau Group (TLG), “Global Benchmark Study of Residential Electricity Tariffs,” May 2013. The study prepared for the Energy Market Authority (EMA), Singapore; (2) Enerdata, cited by Chris Herrera, “Optimization of Supply” presented at EPDP lecture, UPSE, October 26, 2017; and (3) International Energy Consultants (IEC), “Regional/Global Comparison of Retail Electricity Tariffs: Executive Summary,” May, 2016.


In the IEC study, subsidized markets are Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan. Unsubsidized and deregulated markets are Japan, Philippines, and Singapore. Hong Kong is unsubsidized but it is unsure if it’s deregulated.

The Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA) of 2001 has several provisions to help reduce Philippines’ electricity prices. The deregulation of power generation encouraged many private power producers to compete with each other. The Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) average prices for instance have been declining, in Pesos/kWh: 6.43 in 2010, 3.80 in 2011, 4.87 in 2012, 3.85 in 2013, 4.40 in 2014, 3.47 in 2015, and 2.84 in 2016.

The retail competition and open access (RCOA) under EPIRA is also an excellent provision. RCOA allows the “contestable consumers” or those with average electricity consumption of 1,000 KW (or 1 MW), a level which will later be reduced to 750 KW a day, to choose their own Retail Electricity Suppliers (RES) and leave their existing private distribution utility (DU) or electric cooperative (EC).

With RCOA, electricity consumers can set their own conditions from their RES.

Some can demand that they be supplied 100% only from renewables even if the price is higher, others can demand that they be supplied only from cheap and stable sources. Small customers can also aggregate their demand or allow an aggregator to pool their combined demand to become contestable customers.

There are two recent reports in BusinessWorld related to this.

(1) SC asked to lift TRO on retail power suppliers (April 24)

(2). DoE may step in as licensing body for retail power suppliers (April 12).

Report #1 is about Bayan Muna (BM) petition at the Supreme Court (SC) that it should lift its indefinite temporary restraining order (TRO) it issued in February 2017 barring the Department of Energy (DoE) and the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) from further implementing RCOA and allow the contestable customers to choose their own RES.

I was surprised that the pro-state intervention and pro-big government Bayan Muna suddenly turned around and campaigned for pro-market, pro-consumer choice — that consumers be given more freedom to choose an RES from the 23 short-listed by the ERC. Turns out that Bayan Muna is only doing this to further fight Meralco as a monopoly in electricity distribution in Metro Manila and some surrounding provinces. However, the group is silent about the Constitutional provision granting monopoly power to all other DUs and ECs in the country.

Report #2 is about the DoE studying the legality of being the issuer of licenses for RES. There are no updates about this yet.

The indefinite TRO has a very adverse result, reducing consumer choice, especially the contestable customers.

Those who consume 750-999 KW a day and are willing to move voluntarily to RES cannot do so because they will be disallowed by the ERC and PEMC. And even those who consume 1MW or more per day that are already qualified for RCOA are hesitant to have power contracts with RES because of the continuing uncertainty.

The ERC also does not and cannot issue new RES licenses or renew expiring ones, resulting in reduced RES competition.

Even some DUs also face uncertainties whether to get additional generation contracts or not for contestable customers because these customers can leave them anytime once the TRO is lifted.

Government prohibitions should be kept to the minimum. The EPIRA law has already succeeded in reducing electricity prices and expanded the country’s power supply capacity so why suspend more customer choice and empowerment?

The SC indeed should lift its indefinite TRO because it is anti-consumers and anti-business. Existing DUs have the freedom to put up their own RES so that contestable customers who have left the DU franchise system can still be their customers. Or the SC can strike down certain ERC resolutions so that it can issue new resolutions and regulations to implement RCOA and further expand consumer choice.
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See also:


Thursday, May 10, 2018

Malaysia elections, Mahathir back in power but my friend Wan Saiful lost

Last Wednesday, May 09, Malaysia held its 14th General Elections (GE14). My good friend Wan Saiful Wan Jan, co-founder and former CEO of Malaysia's first free market think tank IDEAS, resigned from the institute in February and became a politician by March to help challenge the political hegemony of Najib and BN Party, the ruling party for six decades.

Of course I hoped that Najib and party would lose because of his known big time populist and corrupt ways. His world-known corruption in the 1MDB scandal should have brought him down but because they seemed like a one-party state, his politician supporters bailed him out.

I found the Malaysia election a bit weird, at least compared to the PH. They hold it midweek, Wednesday. When people have work? I don't know if it was a holiday. In the PH, all local and national elections are held on a Monday, usually 2nd Monday of May. People can have an extended vacation when they go home to their province on a weekend then cast their votes Monday morning, then go back to Manila or other big cities in the afternoon.

I think Najib and party did it in order to disenfranchise many white collar workers -- who tend to vote for the opposition -- they will have difficulty going to their province to vote then come back the same day. 

Anyway, my friend lost. But given the fact that he campaigned for only 2 months and 1 week, he did well. 

Wan posted this in his fb wall, in Bahasa, I just copy-paste here a portion of it from fb translation. I think incoming PM Mahathir will invite him to serve in some govt agencies. Good luck, Wan.
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What a beautiful night for us!

May 9th 2018 is a historic date for Malaysia. All of us are among the people who have played a very important role in this change. Let us welcome a brilliant decision achieved by pakatan harapan.

I thank all of the friends who helped me in this election. This is my first election, and the trust that is given to compete in pendang is a heavy trust. But with the help given, we managed to run a healthy campaign….

We fought very well and very healthy. The country figures came to pendang to help us. The media also gave us good coverage. Even if we don't succeed in pendang this time, we need to arrange a step and arrange an organization to allow us to get up again to prepare ourselves for the next fight. I want to be together in the struggle for pendang future, with friends in pendang. I hope we'll all be together in that renewed agenda.

I wrote this message when I was in the same council with tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad and tun asked me to say hello to all in pendang. The formation of the new empire is very close. It's a happy day for us and the whole country. The changes that we dream about are getting closer. Let's both celebrate this happy day!

Wan Saiful Wan Jan
Petaling Jaya
May 10, 2.14 in the morning

BWorld 207, Fare control and surge cap are wrong

* This is my column in BusinessWorld last April 23, 2018.


 “The consumers force all those engaged in production to comply with their orders…. It makes competition work. He who best serves the consumers profits most and accumulates riches.”

— Ludwig von Mises,
Economic Freedom and Interventionism (1990).

Market competition is good. It gives consumers more options and forces competing players to adjust to their varying demands and wishes.

However, several government regulations — such as price and fare controls — go against this principle because it discourages companies from introducing innovation.

When Uber pulled out of Southeast Asia and decided to merge with Grab, it was simply exercising its prerogative. After all, the company, or any company for that matter, can freely enter or leave a market on its own.

Uber has helped popularize technology-based ride-hailing in the region and has inspired Grab and emerging players to do the same, and even improve on the technology aspects of the business.

What should worry the public, especially the commuters, is when government — via the LTFRB, DoTr — decides to bureaucratize the emergence of new players by imposing new regulations like fare control via cap or ceiling on price surge, among a host of other requirements.

Grab as the surviving big entity cannot and should not be considered as “monopoly.” After all, regular cabs, airport taxis, and hotel cars remain available.

If commuters really want cheap rides, they are free to ride buses, jeepneys, and UV expresses.

The price surge in exchange for availability of cars when they are most needed is a trade-off that many Filipinos and Southeast Asians can accept.

Here are four reasons why.

First, people in the region have rising income and therefore, more people have the ability to pay for more expensive trips in exchange for convenience, comfort, and safety.

These numbers show two things: (1) car sales are high and are rising further (except in the Philippines which implemented increased excise taxes on cars due to TRAIN), and (2) per capita income is either high (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand) or at medium level but the expansion is high, 30-38% in just five years (Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam).

Two, the price surge is an incentive for drivers to go to “inhospitable” areas. A person living in a very congested neighborhood but has to bring a family member to hospital emergency may not bother paying a price surge 10x or 20x because it is a matter of life or death for the loved one. And it is possible that the driver may not even charge at all if he/she sees the condition of the patient and have pity.

Three, the contracting system by taxis is a form of a price surge, an incentive for the taxi driver to pick up passengers despite heavy traffic, or flood, or late hours of the night or wee hours of the morning.

Many passengers would agree to pay for increased fares so long as they reach their destination safely. The LTFRB cannot track price surges by taxis but can check price surges by tech companies and this is where agency harassment is most pronounced.

Four, an expensive dominant player is good news to new and upcoming players. They might have a big volume of instant customers if they can initiate and offer lower prices for the same level of convenience and safety.

In a similar case, a friend who runs a UV Express made this observation.

We at the UV Express side are experiencing purging. Transportation is a very good source of livelihood but up to now government does not open any franchises for the transport sector. “Colorum” vans and operators are treated like criminals with a shoot order. All these operators and driver want is a decent job. Government does not have an alternative solution to incorporate returning OFWs who use their hard-earned money to buy cars or vans hoping that government will open new franchises to do business in the country. Government treats would-be small businessmen as criminals since it prevents the people the opportunity to be legal.



A government-imposed price and fare control is wrong. Its move to restrict franchises is wrong. Government should encourage more players and competitors per sector or industry, not less. Regulations like fare control and franchise control can discourage more innovative entrants. The government should give commuters more options as to which players to use and support.
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