Sunday, September 29, 2024

BWorld 733, MUP pension reform and ‘A’ credit ratings

MUP pension reform and ‘A’ credit ratings

August 20, 2024 | 12:02 am

 

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2024/08/20/614899/mup-pension-reform-and-a-credit-ratings/

 


One important fiscal news last week was the move by the Department of Finance (DoF) to review the pension system of military and uniformed personnel (MUP).

 

The MUP is composed of eight agencies — the Armed Forces of the Philippines, Philippine National Police, Philippine Coast Guard, Bureau of Fire Protection, Bureau of Jail Management and Penology, Bureau of Corrections, National Mapping and Resource Information Authority and Philippine Veterans Affairs Office.

 

The MUP pension system is unique for two reasons. One, while government doctors and nurses, government teachers and professors, government engineers and agriculturists, and so on contribute to their own pension via monthly deductions for GSIS, MUPs contribute zero, and so taxpayers pay for their pension. No. 2, the MUP pension is indexed to the salaries of active personnel, so a soldier or policeman who retired a few years ago with P75,000/month will get a pension equivalent to the salary of same-rank active personnel at P150,000/month. The amount rises yearly, is tax free and can be passed on to the spouse upon death.

 

I checked again the figures for MUP spending. They have basic pay, compensation common to all (longevity pay, subsistence allowance, clothing allowance, bonuses, etc.), compensation for specific groups (hazard pay, combat duty pay, combat incentive pay, etc.) and other benefits (retirement gratuity, terminal leave, PhilHealth contribution, etc.).

 

These are for compensations alone. Capex and operation and maintenance costs are excluded. When soldiers are sent to fight rebels, they are provided with tanks, trucks, helicopters, boats and other hardware so that their chances of beating the rebels are high, while their chances of dying in combat are low.

 

Look at Table 1 based on the Budget of Expenditures and Sources of Financing (BESF) from various years. Since the government is in perennial deficit and the MUP pension fund is nonproductive spending (no new roads, no new healthcare or education provided, etc.), the money to finance it is borrowed funds plus interest payments. So the computed total taxpayers’ burden (pension plus interest) ranged from P110 billion in 2020 to P129 billion in 2021, P136 billion this year and P150 billion next year.

 


To sustain the “patriotism” call in the country, the proposed bills at the House of Representatives and Senate should require active MUPs to contribute to their own pension. And pension indexing to current salary of the same rank personnel should be discontinued or at least be adjusted downward.

 

While spending on roads, bridges and education has social benefits, pensions are for personal benefits, and contributions should be personal, not social.

 

PHILIPPINES GETTING ‘A’ CREDIT RATINGS

Also last week, R&I rating agency upgraded the country’s ratings from BBB+, Positive (Oct. 7, 2023) to A-, Stable on Aug. 14. It was reported also in BusinessWorld, “R&I upgrades PHL credit rating to ‘A-’” (Aug. 15). So the Philippines has left the B league and is now at par with Thailand, and soon be at par with Malaysia (Table 2).

  


Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto celebrated it in their press statement as a “milestone achievement.” He said this was the first credit rating upgrade under President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. and is proof that investors and creditors trust his way of running the economy. “Our refined medium-term fiscal program is our blueprint for our road to A rating,” Recto said. “This ensures that we can reduce our deficit and debt gradually in a realistic manner, while creating more jobs, increasing our people’s incomes, growing the economy further and decreasing poverty in the process.”

 

Budget Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman in a separate statement said: “Let’s get all A’s. I am confident we can achieve an “A” rating for all credit rating agencies.” She could be referring to Fitch, Moody’s and S&P.

 

The economic team is on the right path at macroeconomic stabilization that can lead to more rating upgrades in the coming months. We need to sustain it and do more in fiscal consolidation, control some spending, reduce deficit and borrowings so that the public debt stock, the principal amortization and interest payment can be reduced also.

 

Significant reforms in the MUP pension will help achieve this. I believe that our MUP personnel have a high degree of patriotism and they will understand that they need to help the country by contributing to their personal pension someday and not further burden taxpayers. 

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Ukraine war 7, Sanctions don't work because they create new markets

Good discussion by Mike "Mish" Shedlock. Europe trade with Kyrgyztan jumped to the roof when sanctions were imposed vs Russia.
"lesson of the day. Sanctions don’t work because they create new markets." 

To Those Hard of Learning, Here’s a Repeat Lesson on Why Sanctions Fail

Mike “Mish” Shedlocke, September 26, 2024
https://mishtalk.com/economics/to-those-hard-of-learning-heres-a-repeat-lesson-on-why-sanctions-fail/


From the Draghi report, Russia dark fleet, the "unknown" in gray below. Posted and tweeted by Robin Brooks. 



then a reply by Mike "Mish" Shedlock

@MishGEA


Robin, it's hard not to be amused about your inability to learn anything.

Lesson of the Day: Sanctions Don’t Work Because They Create New Markets


From Mist's article last year,

How Russia Makes a Mockery of US Sanctions in One Picture

December 29, 2023 

https://mishtalk.com/economics/how-russia-makes-a-mockery-of-us-sanctions-in-one-picture/

Russia to Export Coal to India Via Iran. It’s a 4 Alarm Bells Fire

June 11, 2024

https://mishtalk.com/economics/russia-to-export-coal-to-india-via-iran-its-a-4-alarm-bells-fire/


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Saturday, September 28, 2024

BWorld 732, Energy security and Philippine business, the case for coal power expansion in Cebu

Energy security and Philippine business, the case for coal power expansion in Cebu

August 15, 2024

 

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2024/08/15/614000/energy-security-and-philippine-business-the-case-for-coal-power-expansion-in-cebu/

 

Last Tuesday, Aug. 13, nine business and professional groups issued a “Joint Statement of Support for the Department of Energy” or DoE. They applauded DoE Secretary Raphael P.M. Lotilla for pursuing a policy of “a balanced energy mix… balanc[ing] energy security and affordability with climate change concerns to support its economic progress…. Energy insecurity is expensive.”

 

The groups were the Management Association of the Philippines (MAP), the Makati Business Club (MBC), the Employers Confederation of the Philippines (ECOP), the Federation of Philippine Industries (FPI), the Financial Executives Institute of the Philippines (FINEX), the Foundation for Economic Freedom (FEF), the Blockchain Council of the Philippines (BCP), the Fintech Alliance.PH, and the Women’s Business Council Philippines (WomenBiz).

 

Early this month the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) announced their support of the DoE. See these reports in BusinessWorld: “Charges vs Lotilla have potential to drive investors away, PCCI says” (Aug. 5) and “‘Balanced’ energy mix keeps power affordable — biz groups” (Aug. 13).

 

Mr. Lotilla has endorsed the expansion of the Therma Visayas, Inc. (TVI) coal plant in Cebu, which will be constructing Unit 3. Last month the People for Power (P4P) coalition filed criminal and administrative cases against the DoE secretary, arguing that the expansion violates the moratorium on new coal projects declared by former DoE Secretary Alfonso Cusi in 2020.

 

Mr. Lotilla is correct. The 10 business and professional groups that support him are correct. The P4P and allied organizations and ideologues are wrong.

 

Here are some reasons why this is so (the numbers refer to the period from March to June 2024).

 

First, the Visayas has the smallest supply margin — supply minus demand minus reserve requirement plus imports from neighbors — compared to the Luzon and Mindanao grids. The Visayas has a margin average of only 144 megawatts/month (MW/month) vs 889 MW/month in Mindanao and 1,838 MW/month in Luzon. The Visayas needs additional capacity to avoid blackouts, like the horrible blackout that befell the four provinces of Panay in early January this year.

 

Low margins mean high prices. The price of power in the Visayas is higher on average than Luzon prices (by P1.50/kWh) and Mindanao prices (by P2.50/kWh). They need additional capacity to reduce the price.

 

The Visayas is exporting more power to Luzon (mainly geothermal from Leyte) than it imports, at an average of 149 MW/month. Then the Visayas is sucking extra supply from Mindanao, at an average of 291 MW/month.

 

Within the Visayas grid, Cebu is exporting power to Negros and Panay islands. That is why prices in the latter two islands are higher than in Cebu. Additional capacity in Cebu will help stabilize the prices in these three islands and sub-grids. Bohol, which mainly imports geothermal power from Leyte, has the highest prices in the Visayas.

 

Nationwide, coal provides about 62% of total power generation. Including gas and oil, fossil fuels contribute 80% of total electricity while wind and solar combined contribute only 4% of total (see the accompanying table). The share of oil-based plants in the total energy mix was 0.8% in March, 1.9% in April, 2.2% in May, and 1.7% in June.

 


Those who have deep angst against coal power should go off-grid and use purely solar and/or wind in their houses and offices.

The following officials in Cebu declared the need for additional capacity, baseload, or running new plants 24/7 this year: Cebu Provincial Governor Gwen Garcia (“‘Not in 2027 but now’: Garcia wants power self-sufficient Cebu,” The Freeman/Philstar, Feb. 3; “Cebu must ensure long-term power supply as economy grows,”Cebu Daily News, June 15); Cebu Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCCI) President Charles Kenneth Co (“Cebu needs more power plants,” The Freeman/Philstar, Jan. 27), Mandaue Chamber of Commerce and Industry President Marc Ynoc and acting Cebu City Mayor Alvin Garcia (“Cebu as next Silicon Valley?: Looming power shortage weakens Cebu’s potential,” The Freeman/Philstar, Aug. 1).

 

I think that by now the local companies that are funding P4P in their coal-hating, RE- and indigenous gas-pushing campaign are ashamed that many high-profile Philippine business and professional organizations are supporting the DoE, and these pro-DoE groups have an idea who the backers of those ecological bullies are.

 

I congratulate the MAP, MBC, ECOP, FEF, FINEX, FPI, FinTech, BCP, WomenBiz, and PCCI for standing behind the DoE and Secretary Lotilla.

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Energy 180, Non-windy years 2021-2024

Global accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), less windy, less stormy planet from 2021 to present.

https://climatlas.com/tropical/

In 2021 Europe suffered high energy prices because their wind farms didn't produce enough power, they imported surplus nuke, oil, gas power from neighbors.


Source: Statistical Review of World Energy 2024
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BWorld 731, Fast growth towards better credit ratings

Fast growth towards better credit ratings

August 13, 2024 | 12:02 am


My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2024/08/13/613533/fast-growth-towards-better-credit-ratings/

 

If there is an “economic Olympics” among the world’s top 50 largest economies this month, the Philippines should get two medals — a gold medal for its unemployment rate in June 2024, and a silver medal in GDP growth in second quarter (Q2) 2024.

 

In my column last week (“All-time low unemployment, revenue enhancement against illicit trade,” Aug. 8), I noted that the Philippines not only had among the lowest unemployment rates around — 3.1% vs Spain’s 11.3%, Sweden’s 9.4%, India’s 9.2%, and Italy’s 7% — but it also had the biggest drop in unemployment, from 6% in June 2022 to only 3.1% in June 2024. That is equivalent to a gold medal achievement.

 

Last week the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) also released the Q2 2024 GDP performance. It was 6.3%, much higher than most projections by the multilaterals and private economic analysts. It was a silver medal achievement next to Vietnam, which grew 6.9%. In contrast, many European countries have had zero growth and some even contracted like Germany and Ireland (see Table 1).

 


Other big European and North American countries have not reported their Q2 2024 GDP results yet, but their recent growth numbers — Q2 2023 and Q1 2024 — were already mediocre: the UK 0.2% and 0.2%, Poland -0.6% and 2%, Netherlands -0.1% and -0.7%, Switzerland 0.4% and 0.6%,  the US 2.4% and 2.9%, Canada 1.3% and 0.5%, and Japan 2.3% and -0.2%.

 

The Philippines’ high growth in the last quarter was mainly due to base effect, with investments or capital formation growing by 11.5% (it had low growth last year), and government consumption growing at 10.7% (it contracted last year). Household consumption, which constitutes about 75% of GDP, has been stung by high inflation and grew only 4.6%.

 

By industrial origin, the main sources of growth were Industry, led by the Construction subsector, and Services led by the Finance and Insurance subsectors with 8.2% growth (see Table 2).

 


I must congratulate the economic team.

 

I quote three cabinet members here from a press release:

 

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto brightly noted that “We are happy with the back-to-back good news on employment and GDP growth. Our impressive growth performance clearly demonstrates that infrastructure is our way forward. We need to build more, build better, and build faster so that Filipinos can reap the benefits of these high-impact projects at the soonest possible time.”

 

The day before, he had announced a positive achievement: “the Marcos, Jr. administration’s ultimate goal of reducing the poverty rate to a single-digit or 9% by 2028, as the Philippines posted its highest-ever employment and historic low unemployment rates in June 2024.”

 

Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan looked optimistic: “Amid evolving risks and challenges, the Philippines’ economic outlook remains promising in the near and medium term… we move closer to our vision of a strongly rooted, comfortable, and secure life for every Filipino.”

 

Budget Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman was equally focused and optimistic: “It feels like we won another gold medal for the Philippines… we are focused on job-creating growth and poverty-reducing growth, and we are inspired to work even harder towards our inclusive economic transformation and sustainable growth.”

 

These twin outstanding economic performance results should help the Philippines earn higher credit ratings on the quest for an “A.” I checked the evolution of the country’s ratings from three big ratings agencies over the past decade, and ours is consistently moving up (see Table 3).

 


S&P’s “BBB” means the recipient is Investment Grade with adequate capacity to meet financial commitments, but more subject to adverse economic conditions. Next is “A,” Investment Grade with strong capacity to meet financial commitments, but somewhat susceptible to economic conditions and changes in circumstances.

 

Moody’s “Baa” is medium-grade and subject to moderate credit risks. Next comes “A” which is upper-medium-grade and subject to low credit risk.

 

Fitch’s “BBB” is good credit quality, default risk is low. The next step is “A” meaning high credit quality, default risk is low, strong capacity to pay financial commitments.

 

An Inquirer story last Thursday bannered the possibility of an “A” rating for the country as early as 2025, quoting Ms. Pangandaman.

 

Yes, I believe this is possible and the secretary is realistic in making this projection. The Philippines deserves higher credibility to meet its financial obligations and should get lower interest rates, and a lower interest payment burden so that more resources can be devoted to productivity enhancing infrastructure programs. 
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Pol Ideology 89, Quotes from Ronald Reagan

When Ronald Reagan was US President and waxing anti-socialist policies in the mid-80s, I was a Marxist-socialist at that time. More than a decade later, I embraced Adam Smith and stayed away from Karl Marx. So I learned to appreciate Reagan, UK PM Margaret Thatcher. 

Below some quotes from Reagan that I like. Enjoy.

1. August 12, 1986 press conf by Ronald Reagan:

"I think you all know that I’ve always felt the nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I’m from the Government, and I’m here to help. A great many of the current problems on the farm were caused by government-imposed embargoes and inflation, not to mention government’s long history of conflicting and haphazard policies."

2. Government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it. 

3. We must reject the idea that every time a law's broken, society is guilty rather than the lawbreaker. It is time to restore the American precept that each individual is accountable for his actions.

 

4. Government's first duty is to protect the people, not run their lives.

 

5. The problem is not that people are taxed too little, the problem is that government spends too much.

 

6.

 

7. We should measure welfare's success by how many people leave welfare, not by how many are added.

 

8. Welfare's purpose should be to eliminate, as far as possible, the need for its own existence.

 

9. Government is like a baby. An alimentary canal with a big appetite at one end and no sense of responsibility at the other.

 

10. The taxpayer - that's someone who works for the federal government but doesn't have to take the civil service examination.

 

11. We might come closer to balancing the Budget if all of us lived closer to the Commandments and the Golden Rule.

 

12. One way to make sure crime doesn't pay would be to let the government run it.

 

13. Man is not free unless government is limited.

 

14. Government does not solve problems; it subsidizes them.

 

https://www.brainyquote.com/search_results?q=ronald+reagan+quotes&pg=2

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Sunday, September 08, 2024

BWorld 730, All-time low unemployment, revenue enhancement against illicit trade

All-time low unemployment, revenue enhancement against illicit trade

August 8, 2024 | 12:02 am


My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2024/08/08/612698/all-time-low-unemployment-revenue-enhancement-against-illicit-trade/ 


Yesterday the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released the labor force data for June 2024, and we saw that the unemployment rate was only 3.1% which tied with December 2023’s level — the Philippines’ all-time low unemployment rate since the 1980s, and possibly since the 1970s although records from that period are scanty or not available.

 

So, I compared the Philippines’ unemployment rate with that of other Asian countries, and with major economies of North America and Europe. Not only is ours among the lowest, but ours has had the biggest drop over the last two years, from 6% in June 2022 to 3.1% in June 2024. In contrast, some countries experienced an increase over the same period, like Sweden, Germany, the UK, the US, and Canada (see Table 1).

 


This is a big economic achievement by the Marcos Jr. administration in general, and the economic team in particular.

 

It also serves as further proof that the high GDP growth in 2022, 2023, and the first quarter of 2024 was indeed job-creating growth and not the “jobless growth” usually claimed by some detractors.

 

In a Viber message to this writer, Budget Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman reiterated the optimistic economic outlook of the Philippines, noting that “our prudent public spending especially in hard infrastructure is bearing fruit, helped improve our people’s productivity and helped our domestic businesses to create more jobs, reduce poverty in the country.”

 

Last Monday I briefly watched the presentation by the House of Representatives’ Development Budget Coordination Committee on the first day of public hearings on the 2025 budget. The secretaries of the departments of Finance (DoF) and Budget and Management, the head of the National Economic and Development Authority, and the central bank governor plus their respective officials were there.

 

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto gave an opening presentation and highlighted, among others, that “the DoF hiked the government-owned and -controlled corporations’ (GOCCs) dividend rates to 75% from 50% in 2024 as among the major sources of non-tax revenues…. Total revenue collection from January to June 2024 grew by 15.6% amounting to P2.15 trillion. Of which, tax collections increased by 10% to P1.84 trillion, while non-tax grew by 63.3% to P314.2 billion.”

 

On July 25, I attended the First National Anti-Illicit Trade Summit at the Manila Hotel, organized by the Federation of Philippine Industries (FPI). Dr. Jesus L. Arranza, chairman of FPI and Fight Illicit Trade (FightIT) noted in his opening message that a study they commissioned showed that the government is losing around P250 billion/year in value-added tax (VAT) due to smuggling.

 

Since VAT is 12% of the price of imported goods, that means around P2.3 trillion worth of smuggled products are sold here annually and unfairly competing against locally produced products in the domestic market.

 

I checked again the revenue performance of the government and saw that overall tax collections are increasing, except excise tax which experienced a revenue decline in 2022 and 2023, and possibly also this year. The main source of revenue losses is in tobacco tax collections, which peaked at P176 billion in 2021 and went down to only P135 billion in 2023, and seems on its way to declining further to around P120 billion by the end of this year (see Table 2).

 



Finance Undersecretary Charlito Martin Mendoza also gave a presentation in the same forum. He said that the Bureau of Internal Revenue and the Bureau of Customs are campaigning against smugglers and illicit traders through the “BRAVE” project: B (Border Security Enhancement), R (Revenue Collection and Protection), A (Adaptive Regulations and Compliance), V (Vigilant Enforcement Operations), and E (Effective Engagement with Stakeholders and Inter-Agency Cooperation).

 

The government — the DoF and Congress in particular — need to address this big conjoined issue of sustained illicit trade and smuggling and high tax rates (like a VAT rate of 12%, a tobacco tax of P63/pack and rising yearly) which are among the key factors why legal products are getting more expensive and the alternative smuggled products are getting more affordable. A downward shift in tax rates, especially in VAT (our 12% is possibly the highest in Asia), should be considered in exchange for the removal of many VAT exemptions.

 

Finally, the Philippines’ high inflation remains a big hurdle in our people’s economic advancement.

 

The big flood in the National Capital Region last July caused the destruction of many properties and a temporary shortage of some commodities. I saw an empty bread shelf in one of the SM groceries in Makati that day of heavy flooding, plus a long queue of shoppers stocking up on mostly food items for fear that another heavy flood might happen again soon.

 

I expect the country’s inflation rate to taper off in the last five months of this year as most harvests in the first rice crop are due starting late August to September, with the second crop due for harvest in December-January.

 

We must stay the course of focused public spending on productive infrastructure and productivity enhancing programs and projects, and tap other domestic sources of additional revenues while avoiding higher taxes and additional borrowings as much as possible.
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Deindustrialization 27, Europe declining market capitalization and GDP growth

Europe growth deceleration began to gain momentum when they started with "save the planet" heavy drama since around early 2000s. Then they added with "save illegal immigrants" since mid-2010s, especially after US regime change in Libya and invasion of Syria in 2014 and huge number of unvetted immigrants from Africa and mid-east went to Europe.


Not satisfied with the above, they added it with "save Ukraine and Zelensky" in 2022 and embraced even more expensive energy. Instead of cheap Russia oil gas direct to them, they buy Russia oil gas via India, China.

As the old adage says -- if other people self-destruct, we should not interrupt. Let them shoot themselves in the feet, repeatedly.

Meanwhile, some interesting news reports here. Enjoy.
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2,500 steelworkers to be laid off before Christmas as British Steel shutters Scunthorpe blast furnaces

Exclusive: In a move unions say will be devastating for the local community, British Steel will stop importing coal and coke in October, meaning the blast furnaces will be turned off permanently just before Christmas

Millie Cooke  23 August 2024
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/british-steel-job-losses-scunthorpe-b2600826.html

 

Ministers urged to step in to save UK firms struggling with high energy costs

Exclusive: Cornwall Insight data shows small businesses paying over £5k extra a year than before energy crisis in 2021

Alex Lawson Business 27 Aug 2024 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/aug/27/ministers-urged-step-in-save-uk-firms-struggling-high-energy-costs

 

German businesses dismiss ‘crazy’ plan to charge more for electricity on cloudy days

Jorg Luyken August 27, 2024

https://www.yahoo.com/news/german-businesses-dismiss-crazy-plan-125635096.html?guccounter=1

 

This is not ‘leading the world’. It’s economic suicide

It matters, as you’ll soon be required to have electric heating and an electric car

NEIL RECORD 3 September 2024. 

The Telegraph, https://archive.is/Waok3#selection-3087.4-3121.19

 

Energy price cap

The energy price cap is the maximum amount energy suppliers can charge you for each unit of energy and standing charge if you're on a standard variable tariff.

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-price-cap

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