PN 6, Part 2: Nickel potentials and Palawan

Part 2: Nickel potentials and Palawan

Bienvenido S. Oplas Jr.

May 10, 2026

https://palawan-news.com/part-2-nickel-potentials-and-palawan/

 

Nickel prices have increased recently, from $15,390/ton in end-May 2025 to $16,750 in end-December 2025 and $19,635/ton last May 5. The all-time high price of nickel was $48,226 on March 07, 2022 mainly because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the latter is a major producer of high-grade nickel.

 

As discussed in Part 1 of this column, the Philippines is the second largest producer of nickel ore in the world after Indonesia, with an output of 330,000 tons in 2024. The country’s estimated nickel reserves is 4.8 million tons, so the reserves/production (R/P) ratio is only 15 years for the Philippines, 25 years for Indonesia, and 38 years for the worldwide average.

 

Prices of nickel sulfate in 2024 were back to 2019 prices at more than $17,000/ton, while cobalt prices have declined in 2024. Cobalt, lithium, and nickel are among the important materials in the production of electric vehicles; cobalt and nickel are for stainless steel and other industrial products.

 

While Caraga region in Mindanao has clear policy and geological

advantages in nickel production, Palawan has its own advantages too but the

policy environment is not friendly to new nickel mining projects.

 

I summarize the policy gap between the two here. This is an extension of

Table 2 in Part 1 of this column.

Both Palawan and Caraga face weather-related production limitations. Palawan’s southwest-facing coast makes it susceptible to the southwest monsoon (June–October), limiting the mining season to approximately November–July. Caraga facing the Pacific Ocean is exposed to typhoons and northeast monsoon conditions from October–March. In 2025, prolonged rains constrained operating days at both FNI’s Palawan and Surigao sites, reducing 9-month sales volume by 14.2% year-on-year.

 

From April 2020 to December 2024, 92% of Caraga’s nickel ore went to China. Palawan’s Ipilan mine are shipped exclusively to Guangdong Century Tsingshan Nickel Industry (GCTN) in China. There is high dependency in exports to China of Philippines nickel ore.

 

The 50-years new mining moratorium is not good for Palawan’s push for higher economic growth. It is good that the Philippine Nickel Industry Association (PNIA) has pointed out that the provincial moratorium is in conflict with the national Mining Act of 1995.

 

The Supreme Court has earlier struck down a 25-year mining moratorium imposed by Occidental Mindoro on the same grounds, citing the limited police powers of local government units over national resources. That precedent can apply to Palawan when the Provincial Ordinance is challenged before the courts. 

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See also:

PN 3, Coal plants in Luzon and Palawan, May 04, 2026

PN 4, Coal plants in Visayas-Mindanao and Palawan, May 16, 2026

PN 5, Part 1: Nickel potentials and Palawan, May 17, 2026

BWorld 869, The China-US summit and recent ASEAN summit

The China-US summit and recent ASEAN summit

May 14, 2026 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/05/14/749422/the-china-us-summit-and-recent-asean-summit/

 

Today is the start of the two-days visit of US President Donald Trump, Jr. to China. Trade, investment, and market access, the Iran war, and energy are expected to dominate the talks between Mr. Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping. Taiwan may also crop up.

 

Today I have assembled a variety of economic and energy data from different sources for the three largest economies in Asia, North America, and Europe. In GDP size at current values, the US is No. 1 in the world, but at purchasing power parity (PPP) values, China is No. 1. And this is consistent with rankings in merchandise exports, total energy supply (TES), and total power generation (TPG).

 

In 2025, the total combined GDP size of the US, Canada, and Mexico was $36.98 trillion, smaller than China’s $41.24 trillion. When it comes to merchandise exports, the total combined exports of the US, Canada, and Mexico was $3.40 trillion, smaller than China’s $3.77 trillion.

 

In TES, the combined size of the three North America countries was 111.75 exajoules (EJ), smaller than China’s 158.88 EJ. And in TPG, the combined size of the US, Canada, and Mexico was 5,627 terawatt-hours (TWh), smaller than China’s 10,087 TWh (see Table 1).

 

These numbers show that China already eclipsed the US economy several years ago. But we keep hearing and reading in many news outlets and even academic papers that the US economy is larger than China’s so the US can throw its weight around in many negotiations on trade, investments, infrastructure, and energy.

 

It seems that China has patiently endured the “US is more economically dominant” narrative while consistently increasing its market share in global exports and energy supply. BYD and Geely cars, Howo trucks, Yutong buses, Huawei mobile phones, and many other brands continue to expand their markets in many countries.

 

The more important thing that must be addressed in the Trump-Xi summit is the avoidance of more political and military conflict in the region, from the Middle East to the South China Sea, the Strait of Malacca, and the Taiwan independence issue.

 

THE ASEAN

Last Friday, May 8, the ASEAN summit was successfully held in Cebu as the leaders of the member-countries reiterated that they would be “reinforcing peace and security through dialogue and cooperation, promoting maritime cooperation as an important avenue for enhancing regional connectivity, mutual trust and dialogue, deepening economic integration… peaceful settlement of disputes, including full respect for legal and diplomatic processes, without resorting to the threat or use of force in accordance with international law…”

 

Using the same indicators as Table 1, I summarized the numbers for the ASEAN-6 plus South Korea, Taiwan ,and Australia. Notable was the fast expansion in GDP size of other Asian economies in just two decades, from 2005 to 2025.

 

In merchandise trade, Singapore has more exports than the UK, Russia, and Canada. In power generation, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Vietnam are larger than the UK (see Table 2).

 

The real driver of the global economy now is Asia, not North America or Europe. The pace of industrialization, manufacturing expansion, and modernization, and electricity production to power those big and expanding industrial needs, are simply fast, led by China, India, South Korea, and Japan.

 

In the ASEAN, the leading economies are Indonesia, Singapore, and Vietnam. The Philippines has generally been left behind by some of its ASEAN neighbors in many aspects of industrialization, but this is not necessarily bad for us. Our merchandise trade deficit can be compensated for by non-merchandise trade surplus. It is important that free trade should prevail, and that discriminatory non-tariff barriers be kept to the minimum.

 

More importantly, we need to look inwards more and address various governance problems and issues that adversely affect our businesses, industries, and exporters.

PhilStar 93, Cereals and fertilizers inflation

Cereals and fertilizers inflation

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star 

May 14, 2026 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/05/14/2527726/cereals-and-fertilizers-inflation

The Philippines’ overall inflation increased from 1.4 percent in April 2025 to 7.2 percent in April 2026 and it is bad. But an even worse inflation is registered in other consumer goods like cereals and fertilizers.

 

I checked the Excel table of the Philippines Statistics Authority on wholesale prices of cereals, and the following caught my attention.

 

Well-milled rice per kilo, from P42.94 in April 2025 to P52.05 in April 2026, a 21.2 percent increase, that’s large. Over the same period the largest increases were registered in Central Visayas or Region 7, from P47.68 to P60.55; Davao Region or Region 11, from P 43.45 to P56.07; SOCKSARGEN or Region 12, from P37.20 to P52.91/kilo or 42.2 percent increase; Caraga or Region 13, from P43.65 to P57.25; and BARMM, from P41.14 to P54.00, or 31 percent increase in both Caraga Region and BARMM.

 

White corn grits, April 2025 to April 2026, from P31.43 to P51.95 or 65.3 percent increase. Largest increases were recorded in these regions: Central Visayas, from P36.00 to P63.48 or 76 percent increase; Zamboanga Peninsula or Region 9, from P24.80 to P49.20 or 98.4 percent increase; Caraga or Region 13, from P29.50 to P56.00 or 90 percent.

 

 

Those with modest increases are special rice, from P50.04 to P57.33 or 14.6 percent increase. Yellow corn grits, from P29.66 to P31.85 or 7.4 percent increase.

 

There is no explanation or discussion given in the PSA Excel tables for the high price increases of those commodities. The most likely and understandable reason is higher cost of harvest and thresher, transportation because these are influenced by higher prices of diesel.

 

I have repeatedly argued that government should have suspended the oil excise tax especially for diesel because it is used by tractors, harvesters, irrigation pumps, trucks, fishing boats and many other machines and vehicles.

 

Sure there will be decline in overall revenues. Then it can be compensated by a cut in spending in some sectors. A tax cut can be considered as equivalent to government subsidy across the board with little or zero additional cost like fielding personnel to various areas to distribute certain cash or in-kind subsidy to public transportation, and the occasional wastes and corruption in implementing such subsidy.

 

In the coming planting season starting this June, a new price hike to watch is the cost of fertilizers. Global price of sulfur in particular has been rising from a pre-war price in Feb. 27 of China’s yuan (CNY) 3,877/ton to CNY 6,800 last April 08, declined a bit then resumed increase to CNY 7,803 last May 12.

 

Sulfur is used mainly to produce sulfuric acid, essential for manufacturing phosphate fertilizers, chemicals, and refined petroleum. Other industrial applications include  vulcanizing rubber, creating detergents, and production of fungicides and pesticides.

 

Another major fertilizers ingredient is ammonia or NH3. Its main application is nitrogen fertilizer to produce urea, ammonium nitrate, ammonium phosphates to provide nitrogen to crops. Minor applications include the production of plastics, explosives, fabrics, and pesticides.

 

The price of ammonia has increased from Feb. 27 level of $518/ton to $805/ton on April 24 or after eight weeks of Middle East war, latest price is $799/ton last May 11.

 

Sulfur, ammonia, phosphates, etc are derived from oil-gas refining. More oil-gas production and refining means more fertilizers production, higher crop yield and higher food production in the world.

 

That is why it is wrong to keep demonizing hydrocarbons and fossil fuels. Oil-gas produce not only gasoline, diesel and LPG, they also produce various petrochemical products from paint and varnish to plastic and nylon, synthetic rubber tires to asphalt, fertilizers and medicines and many other industrial goods.

 

We should expand drilling and exploration for more indigenous oil and gas, onshore and offshore, national or regional cooperation with neighbors like Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and China.

 

We should set aside climate alarmism and war mongering and instead focus on expanding our domestic energy supply, domestic fertilizers and petrochemicals production. Save our jobs and businesses, save the hungry, and not save the planet as the planet is fine adapting to natural warming-cooling cycle for the past 4.6 billion years.

BWorld 868, Mapping oil-gas dependence of countries, and Meralco’s Q1 income

Mapping oil-gas dependence of countries, and Meralco’s Q1 income

May 12, 2026 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://bworldonline.com/opinion/2026/05/12/748825/mapping-oil-gas-dependence-of-countries-and-meralcos-q1-income/

 

Continued high oil and gas prices affect the cost of mobility and the various industrial and petrochemical products, down to fertilizers resulting in a higher cost of farming. Electricity generation can be somewhat insulated from very high prices for countries that rely more on coal, nuclear, hydro, geothermal, and other renewables.

 

I have here the breakdown of total energy supply by type of fuel. I grouped the countries by continent and sub-continents.

 

The heavy users of oil are Japan, South Korea, Brazil, Germany, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Taiwan, Thailand, and Singapore. Heavy users of both oil and natural gas are the US, Canada, Mexico, the UAE, the UK, Italy, and Malaysia. And heavy users of natural gas are Russia and Iran.

 

The heavy users of coal are China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam; the high users of coal and gas are Taiwan and the Philippines. Only France is heavily dependent on nuclear power.

 

Countries that are high energy users are also the countries with large GDP sizes. China leads as its GDP of $41.2 trillion and its total energy supply of 159 exajoules (EJ, a unit of energy equal to one quintillion joules) are a lot larger than the US’ GDP of $30.8 trillion and energy supply of 92 EJ.

 

When it comes to electricity generation, the archipelagic Philippines is larger than the city state of Singapore, with 130 vs. 60 terawatt-hours (TWh), but when it comes to total energy supply, Singapore’s is larger than the Philippines’, with 3.79 vs. 2.54 EJ. The main reason is that Singapore is used as a transportation hub by many airlines, shipping lines, cruise lines, and cargo ships.

 

Notable in Table 1 is that America and Europe have seen a small expansion in GDP size over the past two decades, 2005 to 2025. The global average expansion over the same time period is 3.1 times. The expansion of GDP size of the US, Canada, Germany, France, and the UK range from 2.1 to 2.4 times.

 

 

In contrast, China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore and the Philippines saw GDP expansion of 4.2 to 6.9 times while Thailand, Malaysia, Taiwan, and South Korea’s GDPs expanded 2.8 to 3.8 times. These Asian economies have powered their industrialization and modernization with coal, gas, and oil, using more fossil fuels than renewable energy sources. Asia, and the Philippines in particular, should not veer away from this, they should distance themselves from the aggressive climate-climate agenda that promotes the use of renewable energy.

 

MERALCO

Last week, Meralco released their first quarter (Q1) 2026 Financial and Operational Highlights. Meralco proper as a distribution utility (DU) experienced a decline in energy sales at -1.8%, but the generation unit, the Meralco PowerGen Corp. (MGEN), experienced a 17.6% expansion, while its retail electricity supply (RES) units like Vantage and MPower saw a 9% expansion.

 

In Consolidated Core Net Income (CCNI), MGEN experienced a 51% expansion while the DU and RES suffered a contraction of 21% and 6.4% respectively. It is the same in Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA), the DU and RES suffered contractions but MGEN experienced a 27% expansion (see Table 2).

 

MGEN remains the rock star of the Meralco group. The “lead singer” of this rock star unit, MGEN President and CEO Manny Rubio, identified in his presentation the dynamic parts of the company, namely MGEN Thermal (the coal plant units GBP and San Buenaventura), MGEN Gas (an investment in LNGPH through Chromite Gas, and Singapore-based PacificLight Power), and MTerra Solar for the timely delivery of an initial 250 megawatts (MW) of solar with battery. He also mentioned the $2.8-million US government grant to MGEN for nuclear study.

 

Meanwhile, here are some developments from other agencies.

 

The Department of Energy (DoE) reiterated its moratorium on new coal projects in the country. This is bad news. The good news is that there are exemptions to the moratorium — projects that were categorized in 2020 as committed for expansion, indicative projects with substantial accomplishments, those serving off-grid or island areas, facilities dedicated to the mining and processing of critical minerals, own-use projects within economic zones, and on-grid projects deemed necessary to avert an imminent power supply crisis.

 

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) made three good rulings this month — resuming the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market or WESM operations, the issuance of clarificatory guidelines on Modified Administered Price to stabilize power costs during market suspension, and the suspension of the Green Energy Auction Allowance, or GEA-All, collection for the May and June 2026 billing period.

 

The National Grid Corp. of the Philippines reiterated they are ready with 10,260 MW of available transmission capacity, but there are not enough power plants in the right places, and many new power projects are far away from existing transmission facilities.

The Bureau of Customs issued an order extending solar importer accreditation validity from one year to three years. Good — that means less bureaucracy and additional costs.

PhilStar 92, Trumpflation, Asean Pacifism and Leviste VATism

Trumpflation, Asean Pacifism and Leviste VATism

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star 

May 7, 2026 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/05/07/2526118/trumpflation-asean-pacifism-and-leviste-vatism

 

This paper will cover four topics so we go straight to the numbers and facts.

 

Trumpflation

 

A really bad news in the country announced by the Philippines Statistics Authority last Tuesday is the high inflation of 7.2 percent in April 2026 from only 1.4 percent in April 2025. Sad development for our people although this is not unique to us, it is a global trend. Other countries’ inflation for April 2025 to April 2026 are as follows: Vietnam, 3.1 to 5.5 percent; Sri Lanka, -0.2 to 5.4 percent; Pakistan, 0.3 to 10.9 percent; Italy, 1.9 to 2.8 percent; Germany, 2.1 to 2.9 percent; Spain, 2.2 to 3.2 percent; Belgium, 2.6 to 4.1 percent.

 

Countries with no April 2026 data yet, here are the comparative inflation numbers from March 2025 to March 2026: Australia, 2.4 to 4.6 percent; Mexico, 3.9 to 4.6 percent; UK, 2.6 to 3.3 percent; US, 2.4 to 3.6 percent.

 

We are now into 10 weeks of Trump-Netanyahu attack of Iran and counter-attack by the latter. The war caused destruction of many oil-gas facilities in the Gulf and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in high prices of oil, gas, naptha, petrochem and fertilizer products. Hence, “Trumpflation” or Trump-triggered global inflation.

 

High unemployment

 

Related to rising inflation is rising unemployment in many countries especially the Philippines. The unemployment for March 2025 to March 2026 are as follows: Japan, 2.5 to 2.7 percent; Hong Kong, 3.2 to 3.7 percent; Philippines 3.9 to 5.0 percent; China, 5.2 to 5.4 percent; Australia, 4.1 to 4.3 percent; Poland, 5.3 to 6.1 percent; Sweden, 8.5 to 9.7 percent; Finland, 10.1 to 11.1 percent.

 

ASEAN Pacifism

 

Today is the start of the two-day ASEAN Summit in Mactan, Cebu, tomorrow is the plenary where all presidents or prime ministers of the 10 member-countries will jointly sign a formal agreement and declaration towards peace and prosperity in the region.

 

There are conflict and territory disputes among member-countries of course. Like between Cambodia-Thailand, Philippines-Malaysia over Sabah, but such disputes are generally settled diplomatically. The only big war in the region was the US invasion and occupation of Vietnam from 1965 to 1973 although the last US troops left Vietnam in April 1975.

 

In the latest statement by the association issued last April 30, they called on the member-countries and their trading partners to reiterate a “rules-based, non-discriminatory, open, and predictable, multilateral trading system.” Non-discriminatory, non-arbitrary and stable trade rules means more peace. Countries prefer to send cargo ships, not battle ships to each other.

 

Leviste VATism

 

I stumbled on the Facebook page of Rep. Leandro Legarda Leviste of Batangas, I was surprised at its content – lots of personal and political attacks against his fellow Batangueño Executive Secretary (ES) Ralph Recto and his wife, Batangas Gov. Vilma Santos-Recto.

 

Among Leviste’s attacks is that ES Recto is opposing VAT reduction or removal of certain commodities. But VAT retention or increase or reduction is under the Department of Finance and Secretary Frederick Go in particular, and the DBCC in general that include DEPDev Secretary Arsenio Balisacan and DBM Secretary Rolando Toledo. It is not the ES main function.

 

One problem of low VAT collection efficiency in the country is that so many sectors are exempted from VAT, including the sale of solar companies. And Leviste’s main business is in solar.

 

I also saw the official statement of ES Recto released last Tuesday. He stated among others,

 

“Sa unang pagtatagpo pa lang namin, may handa siyang P400 milyon at mariin niya akong pinakiusapan na suhulan ang kanyang kalaban sa pulitika upang umatras ito sa kampanya. Tinanggihan ko ito.

 

“Noong sumunod na linggo, hindi pa siya nakontento. Inalok niya kami ng P1 bilyon para sa pag-urong ni Gov. Vi upang siya ang humalili. Umiiyak ang nanay niya habang ginagawa niya ito. Muli, tinanggihan ko ito. Nakakainsulto. Nakakagalit.

 

“… noong nanalo si Leandro, nanumpa siya sa akin dahil mayroon siyang paulit-ulit na hinahangad: ang makamkam ang libu-libong ektarya mula sa hacienda ng tubo sa Nasugbu.  Wala akong kakayahang pagbigyan ang isang maituturing na agaw-lupa. Tinanggihan ko ulit ito....

“Kaya niya ginagawa ito ay para malunod ang kanyang P24 bilyon na utang na resulta ng kanyang ghost solar projects – ang kanyang pinakamalaking budol sa pamahalaan at sambayanang Pilipino.

 

“He is a deranged and dangerous person who will even skin his loved ones, and use their skin to drumbeat his empty achievements to feed his narcissism. He is the leading national inventor of lies, and in a desperate move to escape accountability, is resorting to lies to divert the issue from his misdeeds.”

 

Last Jan. 29 in this column, “Solar sa Politika and energy security,” I wrote there,

 

“Rep. Leandro Leviste… of Solar Philippines Power Project Holdings Inc. (SPPPHI or SP for short) and Solar Para sa Bayan Corp. (SPBC)… has been slapped by the Department of Energy (DOE) with a P24 billion penalty for its failure to deliver its commitments, to develop some 11,400 MW of solar farms under 42 Service Contracts (SCs) with DOE from 2017-2022.

 

“DOE Secretary Sharon Garin said the DOE consistently reached out to SP regarding its contracts but the company failed to respond. So DOE terminated 24 of the 42 SCs.”

 

Horrible crimes by a neophyte congressman: (1) Bribery of a sitting Executive Secretary, (2) land grabbing attempt for thousands of hectares in Batangas, and (3) escaping a P24 billion penalty by the DOE on his ghost solar projects.

 

I think ES Recto is patient enough to just describe the congressman as “deranged and dangerous.” I will have more unkind adjectives given such behavior but I would rather not utter it here.