Tuesday, July 07, 2009

Little Ice Age for the Next 300 Years?

Sometimes I am following some literatures by some astrophysicists and geologists who are watching solar activity in relation to global climate.

Last March and April, I was reading some of them predicting global cooling for the next 30 years, starting this year. Then last month I read Piers Corbyn, a British astrophysicist and owner of climateaction.com, saying that his prediction is cooling for the next 100 years. Then today I encountered this article from a Finnish astrophysicist predicting a ooling for the next 300 years!

The Maundeer Minimum 3 centuries ago lasted for 70 years. They've had a "year without summer" where they still have snow even during summer months. Then the next long period of ooling was the Dalton minimum that occured 2 centuries ago. This Finnish physiist is now saying that current indicators (very low solar irradiance, very low solar magnetic field, very few sunspot numbers, etc.) point to a cooling worse than the Dalton Minimum!

To see details of this physicist's analysis, see the entire article in this link. Below I only copy-pasted the less technial conclusions.

The science of "global warming" is falling like a deck of cards but the politics behind it is rising like the world's tallest buildings in Dubai, Taiwan and China.


Solar Physicist Predicts Ice Age. What happened to global warming?
July 6, 10:19 PM

Kirtland Griffin
New Haven County Environmental Policy Examiner

Timo Niroma, a physicist from Finland, publishes a Solar Report each month. He has given his permission to use it and distribute it to all so here it is. It will be a regular feature here and I hope you look forward to it as much as I do. The report is not written in the usual user-friendly way, but is rather intended for scientists that are familiar with the information contained in it. I will attempt to simplify and explain the details of the report and how it could impact you and, of course, Al Gore and company. As the predictions come true, as I assume they will, the green lobby will go on unemployment compensation. Let's start at the beginning and take it piece by piece.

"JUNE BREAKING NEWS: THE CYCLE GOES AT THE MOMENT BELOW DALTON LEVEL" gives away the punch line but let's see how he gets there....

Remember Dalton means, "Coooooold, Brrrr! Then we have this:

"The yearly sunspot numbers of 1795-1798 were 21, 16, 6.4 and 4.1, the
corresponding values for 2005-2008 were 30, 15, 7.6 and 2.8. The first full
Dalton year or 1799, had a SSN value of 6.8. The SSN of the first 6 months of
2009 is 1.7".

The progressions illustrate that there is a similarity between the years prior to the Dalton, and the minimum leading up to the cycle #24 but lower than those leading up to the Dalton.

Next is an interesting list of Climatic periods in our past on Earth, all of which correlate with solar parameters at the time. Folks back then recorded a tremendous amount of information about the Sun and there were also proxy measurements available.

"Well, there was the 300-year Roman Optimum in 100 BC to AD 200, the 200-year
oscillation 200-900 (200 cold, 300 warm, 400 cold, 600-900 cold), the 300-year
Medieval Optimum 900-1200 (with some colder spells plus warm aftermaths), the
300-year Little Ice Age 1400-1700, the 300-year "Global Warming" 1700-2005 (with
some drawbacks especially in the 1800's). A NEW LIA WITH SPĂ–RER AND MAUNDER IN

That's 300 years of cold, in case you missed it! The Maunder minimum was the bottom of the Little Ice Age from which all IPCC temperature charts begin. That is because it was coldest then and makes the warming look worse. Had they started their charts during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) we would be wondering why it is still so cool. Like when are we going to get to the good stuff.

And then we get the punch line:


This is pretty strong evidence. Had you been reading these reports for a few years you would have seen that Timo has been very conservative in his predictions. His earlier predictions were much less severe but trust me, you would be a lot happier with global warming than you will be with a Maunder type solar event. You can take that to the bank. The only thing that makes me grin about this is that it will end the man made global warming scam once and for all. Unless they can convince politicians that we did that too.

After I posted "Little ice age in the next 300 years?" below where I mentioned Dr. Piers Corbyn, I got an email from him correcting the website address that I mentioned. I wrote climateaction.org, when it should have been climateaction.com. I have already corrected it.

I saw Piers' presentation during the 2nd International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC) in NYC last March, sponsored by the Heartland Institute. I was a bit amused by his looks -- he looked a bit like Albert Einstein, long, curly and uncombed hair, and presenting a lot of Greek equations.

In one of my talks here in Manila on global cooling vs. global warming politics, I used some charts from Piers' powerpoint presentation in that conference.

Piers gave me some links to his latest long-term climate forecasts. Other materials can be downloaded at their website, www.climateaction.com.

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