Tuesday, November 19, 2024

Historical Inequity into Economic Reality: A Critique on DAR’s Agrarian Reformation in the Philippines

I am posting below this academic paper by Ms. Rodriguez and Ms. de los Reyes, both students at De La Salle University (DLSU) School of Economics, Manila. This is for their Capstone course. They focused on assets inequity, why endless agrarian reform and land redistribution is supposed to correct it but still failed. Well written paper. Congratulations, Lou and Cristina.

(pics top and bottom are Cristina and Lou, respectively. They gave me permission to post their beautiful photos)

Historical Inequity into Economic Reality: A Critique on DAR’s Agrarian Reformation in the Philippines 

By Lou Rodriguez and Cristina De Los Reyes
November 2024

As with many postcolonial countries, the Philippines was presented with a land tenure system with strong colonial roots. The said system which was widely acknowledged to be characterized by the existence of very large agricultural lands owned by only a few wealthy families (oligarchs) caused extreme gaps in wealth and power. The general trick in mushroom farms, primarily the main driver, were the ones who had to bear the brunt, accepting low wages and working in precarious conditions, and they were never the owners of the land they cultivated. The Philippine land reform responded to the historical injustice and economic disparity caused by the system.

In the 20th century, the Philippine agrarian system was characterized by a stark divide between large landholdings and small-scale farming (which for simplicity we will classify into types A, B, and C). Type A, prevalent in Central Luzon and Visayas, involved concentrated land ownership by a few wealthy families who rented their land to tenants. Tenants shared the harvest with the landowners and often found themselves in debt due to the risks associated with farming. Type B, more common in the Visayas, featured smaller landholdings and a system of hired laborers. Type C involved government-owned land leased to individual families, typically for pineapple cultivation.

The 1963 Agricultural Land Reform Code marked a significant step towards addressing the inequities of the agrarian system, particularly for rice and corn tenants. However, it failed to address the broader issues of land distribution and the plight of farmers in other sectors. President Ferdinand Marcos's Presidential Decree 7, issued during martial law, sought to further reform the agrarian system by distributing large landholdings among small farmers. The Masagana '99 program, which provided subsidized inputs to rice farmers, led to a temporary increase in production but did not address the underlying structural problems.

While the Philippine agrarian reform movement has achieved some progress over the years, the challenges faced by small-scale farmers persist. Issues such as land tenure, access to credit, and the impact of climate change continue to hinder their livelihoods. Understanding the historical context of Philippine agrarian reform is essential for developing effective policies to promote agricultural sustainability and social justice.

  1. History of Organization 

To address this issue, the Corazon Aquino administration implemented the Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Program (CARP) as a response to the deep-rooted issue of land inequality in the Philippines. CARP aimed to redistribute all covered agricultural lands within a ten-year timeframe, by 1998. This ambitious program was a key component of Aquino's campaign platform and sought to address the rural poverty exacerbated by the colonial and post-colonial landholding system.

The implementation of CARP was motivated by several factors. First, like many developing countries, the Philippines sought to increase its gross domestic product (GDP). However, the agricultural sector, while labor-intensive, often generates low-value-added products. This means that despite significant inputs and effort, the economic returns from agriculture are relatively limited. Second, the global agricultural market, particularly for commodities like sugar, was heavily influenced by former colonial powers and their trading partners, such as the United States—this unequal relationship further disadvantaged agricultural producers in countries like the Philippines, which faced competition from better-supported and more efficient foreign markets. Coupled with the Cronyism and protectionist policies, it led to these industries becoming stagnant. The government often absorbed the costs of unprofitable agricultural businesses, leading to stagnation in the sector, persistent trade deficits, and balance of payments crises. Under these circumstances, the Philippines continued to lag behind its other Asian counterparts as they focused on export-oriented industrialization and higher-value goods instead of intermediary goods (De Dios et al., 2021). This calls for the Philippines to shift away from traditional low-value agricultural-oriented products in favor of more value-adding activities like manufacturing. By redistributing land through CARP, the government aimed to encourage farmers to diversify their livelihoods and explore opportunities in other sectors.

From an economic standpoint, agrarian reform aimed to deal with low productivity and inefficiencies in the agricultural sector. The economic theory of comparative advantage states that different countries should concentrate on different sectors based on relative efficiency. By contrast, the economy of the Philippines as developed capitalism seemed to be entangled in low-valued activities through the cultivation of commodity crops such as sugar and coconuts. The basic premise of CARP was to promote small farmers by giving them land, which would also encourage diversification and allow such farmers to move from low-valued agriculture to richer value-adding sectors such as manufacturing and agribusiness. The economic vision in the implementation of CARP was not only the alleviation of rural poverty but also the restructuring of the economy by shifting from agricultural-oriented growth as well as expanding the industrial output.

Nonetheless, there were several drawbacks that CARP encountered. Although the land was allocated to the rightful beneficiaries, most of them could not access the required financial, technological, and other essential service means for efficient land utilization. This lack of institutional support made it difficult for the region’s agriculture to improve, resulting in what economists refer to as ‘subsistence farming’, that is, farmers managed to grow just enough for their families with no excess grown for commercial purposes or reinvestment. In addition, some observers expressed concern over the slow pace of the project, citing issues like the delay in the redistribution of land which left many farmers in limbo.

The Department of Agrarian Reform (DAR) remains an integral force in the Philippines, managing land reform projects and carrying out its functions even after the original time frame of the Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Program (CARP). Due to the subsequent introduction of  CARP Extension with Reforms (CARPER) in 2009, DAR has been able to retain its functions. Therefore, it is now clear that land redistribution is no longer the only concern of DAR as there is also a focus on capacity building of agrarian reform beneficiaries (ARBs) through different agricultural development and rural entrepreneurship programs.

PhilStar 8, CREATE MORE jobs, wealth and prosperity

CREATE MORE jobs, wealth and prosperity

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star 

September 26, 2024 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2024/09/26/2387957/create-more-jobs-wealth-and-prosperity


The bill on Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises to Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy (CREATE MORE) being championed by the Department of Finance (DOF) is now at the Congress bicameral committee meeting.

 

It is a very important bill that aims to further expand investments, create more jobs, wealth and prosperity in the country.

 

Among its major provisions are the following:

 

One, it reduces the corporate income tax (CIT) rate from 25 to 20 percent for registered business enterprises (RBEs) under the Enhanced Deductions Regime (EDR).

 

Two, it reinstates the value-added tax (VAT) zero-rating treatment on sales to indirect exporters by VAT-registered persons, which the TRAIN law of 2017 removed upon satisfaction of certain conditions.

 

Three, it enhances VAT refund to further streamline the VAT refund process, including limiting the documentary requirements to those prescribed in the revenue issuances, and providing the taxpayer 15 days from the denial of VAT refund an opportunity to file a request for reconsideration.

 

Four, it grants incentives to taxpayers who will adopt the electronic sales reporting system including additional deduction on the total setup costs and tax exemption on the importation of the system.

 

Five, it offers better and more competitive tax incentive package like the income tax holiday (ITH) is kept at four to seven years from the start of commercial operations (SCO), but registered enterprises will have the option to avail themselves of either the Special Corporate Income Tax (SCIT) or the EDR from the onset of their registration, and the SCIT incentive is extended from 10 years to a maximum duration of 17 to 27 years.

 

There is also optional imposition of a registered business enterprise local tax (RBELT), no more than two percent of gross income, to be paid in lieu of all local taxes, fees and charges by RBEs availing themselves of ITH or EDR. 

 

Here are some recent reports in The STAR on the subject: “CREATE MORE approval to accelerate Philippines entry to upper middle-income status” (July 24); “P1.3 trillion projects under CREATE get tax perks” (July 26); “Japanese firms turn to expansion mode after OK of CREATE MORE” (Sept. 20) and “Philippines dangles PPP projects to Singaporean investors” (Sept.  20).

 

This move by the DOF to cut the CIT is important. Why?

 

Tax competition in East Asia

 

The Philippines has the second highest CIT rate of 25 percent along with China, next to Japan with 32.6 percent. Malaysia and South Korea have 24 percent while Indonesia has 22 percent. Cambodia, Thailand, Taiwan and Vietnam have 20 percent, Singapore has 17 percent and Hong Kong has 16.5 percent.

 

These countries used to have higher CIT rates. Malaysia had a rate of 28 percent until 2006, then 25 percent until 2014.

 

South Korea had 27.5 percent until 2022. Indonesia had 30 percent until 2008, then 25 percent until 2020. Thailand had 30 percent until 2011, then 23 percent until 2012.

 

Vietnam had 28 percent until 2008, then 25 percent until 2013 and 22 percent until 2015. Taiwan had 25 percent until 2009, then 17 percent until 2017.

 

Singapore had 20 percent until 2007, then 18 percent until 2009.

 

So tax competition in our region is real, not hypothetical or fictional. The Philippines adjusted by lowering the CIT from 35 percent until 2008, then 30 percent until 2021, to the current 25 percent but as the numbers above showed, our rate was still high. So DOF Secretary Ralph Recto’s move for a further CIT cut to 20 percent is brilliant.

 

The move to further simplify VAT such as reinstating zero-rating treatment on sales to indirect exporters and streamlining of VAT refund process IS also good. Why?

 

The Philippines has the second highest VAT or sales tax in East Asia with 12 percent, next to China’s 13 percent. Indonesia has 11 percent; Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam have 10 percent; Thailand and Singapore have seven percent; Taiwan has five percent and Hong Kong has zero.

 

So in the next round of tax reforms, the Philippines should cut VAT from 12 percent with many exempted sectors, to around seven to eight percent with no exemption except raw agriculture products.

 

At the 4th Philippine-Singapore Business and Investment Summit (PSBIS) held last week, Sept. 19 at Shangri-La, Singapore, Secretary Recto assured the Singaporean and Singapore-based foreign investors that the soon CREATE MORE law will further ease and smoothen doing business in the Philippines. Good assurance there, Sec. Ralph.

 

Other speakers in the PSBIS were Department of Budget and Management Secretary Amenah Pangandaman, NEDA Secretary Arsenio Balisacan, Philippines Ambassador to Singapore Medardo Macaraig. On encouraging the electronic sales reporting system in the CREATE MORE bill, the DBM has a parallel push for digitalization of government procurement and Public Financial Management.

 

Currently, there have been successful lobbies to be tax-exempt such as the importation of electric vehicles. Now the industry wants to extend the tax exemption.

 

This is wrong and DOF should junk their lobby. We should keep the rule of law on taxation – the tax applies equally to all sectors.  Lowering the CIT, simplifying the VAT and ultimately lowering it, as well as reducing the import tax are better alternatives than giving exemptions and favoritism to certain sectors while other sectors are slammed with high taxes.

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BWorld 745, The degrowth trend in the west, health parochialism in the Philippines

The degrowth trend in the west, health parochialism in the Philippines

October 1, 2024 | 12:02 am


My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2024/10/01/624813/the-degrowth-trend-in-the-west-health-parochialism-in-the-philippines/ 


Canada finally released its second quarter (Q2) 2024 GDP data last week, or almost three months after the end of the quarter. Now we have the full data for the first half (H1), or Q1 and Q2 of the year, of the G7 countries.

 

I compared the numbers for GDP growth and inflation rate over four years, 2021-2024, of four groups of countries. In Group A are the ASEAN-6, in Group B are the countries of Northeast Asia plus India, in Group C are the G7 member countries, and in Group D are Russia and its neighbors plus Ireland. The results show the following:

 

1. A significant growth slowdown, even a trend towards degrowth, is emerging in G7 countries. In H1 2024, only the US and France grew above 1%. They also suffered high inflation of 5.9% or higher in 2022, except Japan.

 

2. Group A and B countries grew at 3% or higher in 2024 except for Thailand and South Korea. They also experienced mild inflation in 2022.

 

3. Russia’s three neighbors that happen to also be NATO members — Finland, Estonia and Latvia — experienced even deeper degrowth than G7 members. Plus, Finland and Estonia saw double-digit inflation in 2022. Sanctions vs Russia tend to harm those who imposed the sanctions more than Russia itself (see Table 1).

 


Also, last week saw plenty of GDP revisions upwards by the US. Until about two weeks ago, these were the quarterly growth rates: 3.6%, 1.9%, 1.7%, 0.7% in 2022, and 1.7%, 2.4%, 2.9%, and 3.1% in 2023. Last week, with upward revisions, the growth rates became: 4%, 2.5%, 2.3%, 1.3% in 2022, and 2.3%, 2.8%, 3.2%, and 3.2% in 2023. The significant upward adjustments and revisions in US GDP numbers may be related to the coming Presidential elections next month.

 

The Philippines and other developing countries should avoid the policies of G7, especially those in Europe that are focused on saving others — the planet, Ukraine, and illegal immigrants — and other such concerns. We should instead focus on saving jobs and the economy from low growth and high poverty.

 

BTr’s CASH OPERATIONS REPORT


Last week, the Bureau of the Treasury (BTr) released the cash operations report for August 2024. I compared the numbers with those of the same period, January-August, from 2020-2023. Here are some important developments.

 

1. Revenues are nearly P3 trillion in 2024, almost 50% higher than the P2 trillion in 2021 or just three years ago. Non-tax revenues like remittances by government corporations and financial institutions kicked in high, from P74 billion in 2023 to P200 billion in 2024.

 

2. The rise in expenditures is mainly due to a rise in national plus local government disbursements, and interest payments for public debt — from P270 billion in 2020 to P509 billion in 2024 or nearly double in just four years. If the current trend in interest payment continues, the full year 2024’s interest payment would be P764 billion, with principal amortization not yet included.

 

3. It is the first time since 2020 that the deficit has been below P700 billion. Again, this is thanks to the jump in non-tax revenues which significantly raised overall revenues.

 

4. Financing or borrowing is still at P1.5 trillion in 2024, but at least this is lower than the P2.2 trillion average for 2020 and 2021 (see Table 2).

 


And now we go back again to the move by the Department of Finance (DoF) to tap the “idle funds” of the Philippine Health Insurance Corp., or PhilHealth, to finance some unprogrammed appropriations, including big infrastructure projects and healthcare worker benefits. I want to reiterate my arguments on why the DoF’s move is correct.

 

1. Those big unprogrammed appropriations can no longer be accommodated in the programmed appropriations of 2024 because the programmed appropriations are already huge, and the projected budget deficit is already at P1.48 trillion.

 

2. There are indeed Congressional pork barrel funds in the annual budget. But people forget or deliberately ignore that the budget also contains local governments’ pork barrel done via budget consultations at the regional development councils (RDCs), plus NGOs’ pork via budget consultation by agencies. These spending insertions by local governments and NGOs are incorporated when the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) submits the budget to Congress yearly.

 

For instance, the Department of Health (DoH) and other agencies consult the Alternative Budget Initiative (ABI), a big NGO network with sectoral clusters, about the agency’s budget. The annual DoH budget consultation with the ABI health cluster is done usually in early February of each year.

 

3. Tapping PhilHealth’s P90 billion in “idle funds” in 2024 means the government is not borrowing P90 billion, which at the current 5.8% interest rate (10-year bonds) would cost P5.22 billion/year in interest payments alone.

 

4. The DoF, DBM, and the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), which are the departments that comprise the economic team, have a wider overall view of all the agencies and sectors while the health lobbyists have a narrow and parochial view of the budget, which is why they say universal healthcare spending should prevail over many other agencies and sectors.

 

5. PhilHealth and the health advocates have become addicted to the tax money collected from gamblers (remittances from the Philippine Charity Sweepstakes Office and the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp.), smokers and drinkers (tax revenues collected from legal tobacco and alcohol). So much so that when these tax contributions are reallocated to unprogrammed appropriations even for one year, they get angry. Which demonstrates their double talk. They demonize alcohol and tobacco products as being “sin” products and unhealthy, yet they rely too much on taxes from alcohol and tobacco.

 

So, to help the health advocates become more consistent and avoid double talk, the DoF should proceed with using the extra revenue from gamblers, drinkers, smokers, and vapers to fund more infrastructure and other economic and social programs.
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PhilStar 7, Measuring the investment contribution of toll roads in the Philippines

Measuring the investment contribution of toll roads in the Philippines

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star 

September 19, 2024 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2024/09/19/2386230/measuring-investment-contribution-toll-roads-philippines

 

Toll roads and expressways are nice and efficient on two grounds. One, they are safe and well-maintained, small vehicles like bicycles, tricycles, e-bikes, small motorcycles, tractors and kuliglig, are prohibited and thus, reduce the probability of road accidents. Two, they work on user-pay principle – only those who use it pay for it, thus taxpayers from the Visayas and Mindanao are not forced to pay for the construction and maintenance of expressways in Luzon.

 

The two largest infrastructure companies in the Philippines are Metro Pacific Investment Corp. (MPIC) and San Miguel Corp. (SMC).

 

MPIC has six existing toll roads and expressways: the North Luzon Expressway (NLEX), Subic-Clark-Tarlac Expressway (SCTEX), NLEX Connector; in the south are the Cavite Expressway (CAVITEX), the Cavite-Laguna Expressway (CALAX), and in the Visayas, the Cebu-Cordova Link Expressway (CCLEX).

 

SMC has five toll roads: the South Luzon Expressway (SLEX), Southern Tagalog Arterial Road (STAR), NAIA Expressway (NAIAX), Skyway (stages 1-3), and Tarlac Pangasinan La Union Expressway (TPLEX).

 

I am curious how to quantify the potential contribution of toll roads in a particular region’s growth. To measure this, I use the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) data on regional gross domestic product (RGDP) 2000-2023. Since overall GDP is rather broad, I limit the measurement to gross capital formation (GCF) or investments.

 

The busiest toll roads are the 84-kms long NLEX that opened to motorists in 1965, and the 50-kms long SLEX that opened in 1969. They cannot be used for this exercise because the baseline, 1960s, is too far away from available data from PSA.

 

Three toll roads have proximate contribution to investments with PSA data. These are the 94-kms  long SCTEX that was opened to motorists in 2008, the 8-kms long SLEX toll road 3 that was opened to the public in 2011, and the 93-kms long TPLEX that started accommodating motorists in 2013.

 

The main beneficiaries of SCTEX are motorists and businesses in Region 3. Before its opening in 2008, Region 3 has average GCF growth of -8.3 percent in 2003-2007, then huge rebound of 24.6 percent growth from 2008-2012, then 13.7 percent growth in 2013-2017. In value at constant prices (2018 = 100), GCF in Region 3 was P111.5 billion in 2007, jumped to P309.8 billion in 2012, and further jumped to P585 billion in 2017. So it seems that the opening of SCTEX has contributed significantly to expanding investments in Region 3.

 

Motorists going to Region 1 are the main beneficiaries of TPLEX, they also benefit from SCTEX as extension of NLEX. The average GCF growth in Region 1 were 2.2 percent in 2003-2007, 17.6 percent in 2008-2012, and 16.5 percent in 2013-2017. In terms of value, investment level in Region 1 were P40.8 billion in 2007, doubled to P85.4 billion in 2012, and doubled again to P181.9 billion in 2017. So it seems that the opening of SCTEX then TPLEX have contributed significantly to expanding investments in the Ilocos region.

 

Motorists going to Region 4A (Calabarzon) are non-beneficiaries of SCTEX and TPLEX, but they benefit from SLEX extension like toll road 3. The average GCF growth in Region 4A were -7.4 percent (ie, contraction) in 2003-2007, low growth 3.9 percent in 2008-2012, and high recovery due to “base effect” of 38.7 percent in 2013-2017. Investments level in Region 4A rose from P151.7 billion in 2007 to P767 billion in 2017. So it seems that the opening of SLEX toll road 3 (connecting the main SLEX to STAR toll road) in 2011 has contributed to high investment expansion in Calabarzon region in the last decade.

 

There are many other factors that contribute to the expansion or contraction of investments in a particular province or region or nation, but the ease of mobility of goods and services or people via expressways is among the important ones. The numbers above show doubling if not tripling of investments after five years intervals.

 

The continued expansion and extension of expressways operated by both MPIC and SMC are good moves by these conglomerates because they greatly facilitate the movement of people and goods from north to south Luzon and vice versa. In the process these toll roads help attract investments and job creation, facilitate more trade and commerce with other countries.

 

Toll roads expansion is economic expansion. Infrastructure policies become economic policies. The government economic team can work closely with the government infrastructure team towards more Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) projects in the country.

 

Finally, I wish that MPIC will consider extending soon the current NLEX that ends in Sta. Ines, Pampanga up to Camiling, Tarlac, and even up to Alaminos, Pangasinan, known for the Hundred Islands resorts and national park. This will pass through the western side of Bamban, Capas, Tarlac City, Sta. Ignacia, and Camiling. Then parallel to the existing national highway all the way up to Alaminos passing near Lingayen, the provincial capital of Pangasinan.
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BWorld 744, Coal’s economic contribution, the new ERC Chair

Coal’s economic contribution, the new ERC Chair

September 26, 2024 | 12:02 am


My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2024/09/26/623881/coals-economic-contribution-the-new-erc-chair/ 


A quick update on the number of global tropical storms was made by Dr. Ryan Maue. One narrative about “man-made” climate change is that there are now more frequent storms and stronger storms than in the past. The data says there is no truth to the former claim (see Figure 1).

 

 

The claim that storms are getting stronger is also not true. The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) just shows the natural cycle of high-low ACE, like the period 2021-2024 has low ACE.

 

The pattern of ice growth and melting in both the Arctic and Antarctica remains the same. Data from 1978-2024 can be viewed here, https://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/.

 

There is no climate crisis to justify the continued demonization of coal, oil, gas, and nuclear, and the continued push for intermittent solar and wind power. We need the “business as usual” power sources to sustain the growth path of developing countries like the Philippines.

 

Developed Western countries like the US, the UK, Germany, and Spain have greatly moved away from coal power. In the process, their average economic growth has been declining while their average inflation rate has been rising. The opposite trend is shown in coal-heavy Asian nations like China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam (see Figure 2).

 

 

Related to this, the Coaltrans Asia 2024 forum was held in Bali, Indonesia on Sept. 10. According to a press release, Aboitiz Power Corp. Chief Operating Officer for Thermal Operated Assets Ronaldo Ramos was one of the speakers, and he said that “We need reliable and reasonably priced baseload power to address the inherent intermittency of renewable energy and the geographical challenges of injecting these intermittent capacities to our present grid.”

 

This was reported also in BusinessWorld, “AboitizPower: Renewables need baseload for reliability” (Sept. 25). Mr. Ramos’ statement is corroborated by the numbers. Developing countries cannot just dump cheap and stable energy and expect growth to remain high. It did not happen and will not happen.

 

A coal plant that is visible from the house of my parents-in-law in Lapaz, Iloilo City, is that of the Panay Energy Development Corp. (unit 1 is 167 MW, unit 2 is 150 MW), owned by Meralco PowerGen Corp. Day or night, I did not see the black smoke that we often see in photos and campaign materials of the climate activists. Some BBQ stands nearby produce more visible smoke than that coal plant.

 

Panay island is composed of four provinces (Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, Antique) and is growing fast — they need adequate, reliable, and cost-efficient energy. Meralco spokesman Joe Zaldariaga went there this week and he said that “The power plant is beside a residential area and the lush greeneries and mangrove areas nearby complement the sustainability in the place and is proof that high performance clean coal stations can co-exist with urban residents.”

 

THE NEW ERC CHAIRPERSON


The newly appointed OIC of the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC), former Justice Undersecretary Jesse T. Andres, is my batchmate from UP School of Economics (1984). I learned about this when he joined our batch’s Viber group. I have communicated with him some of my observations about the country’s energy regulation system.

 

I think these issues need to be addressed and prioritized by the ERC.

 

1. Power Supply Agreement, (PSA) and Ancillary Services Procurement Agreement, (ASPA) should get the ERC nod if these have gone through the mandatory competitive selection process (CSP) that ERC itself oversees.

 

2. Barriers to the entry of new generation companies (gencos) should be reduced. ERC processes in Energy Virtual One-Stop Shop (EVOSS) system should be included and timelines should be observed and met.

 

3. The recent ERC limitations on retail electricity supply (RES) of up to a 50% limit on affiliate gencos should be reviewed if not removed.

 

4. The price control at the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) via secondary price cap (only P6.25/kWh, which was imposed by the ERC around 2014, a decade ago) should be removed. If the price is capped, the supply curve shifts to the left while the demand curve remains the same. This largely explains the frequent yellow-red alerts that we experience yearly. Peaking plants to supply peak demand are not there as they are discouraged by price controls.

 

5. The performance-based regulation process for distribution utilities and electric cooperatives should proceed for their upcoming regulatory periods.

 

6. The “cost-based evaluation” for genco applications should be removed because the generation sector is supposed to be competitive. This should force the gencos to make their operations more efficient to make them profitable. High efficiency means a high probability of winning CSPs with low prices for the consumers.

 

For regulated entities (distribution utilities and transmission), performance-based regulation (PBR) was introduced in the early 2000s as an alternative design to regulation. PBR will push the monopoly to act as if it is under a competitive regime, increasing its efficiencies while meeting its performance targets thereby substantially reducing the “deadweight loss” to society from a monopolistic market. PBR uses forecasts instead of historic values. The monopoly is allowed to keep efficiency gains and the focus should be on the performance of the utility. PBR is an economic concept but recently it has become an accounting exercise when it should be an economics exercise.

 

Regulators’ biggest service to the public is to expand consumer choice. Let them choose and decide whether to consume 1,000 kWh, or 500 kWh, or just 200 kWh per month, provided that the electricity is there when they need it. Their choice should not be limited to using candles or kerosene torches or diesel gensets due to frequent blackouts.

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Sunday, November 03, 2024

Tobacco Taxation 3, Maldives' smoking and vaping ban

My previous papers on this subject can be considered as Tobacco Taxation 1 and 2:


Last October 15, Dr Mohamed Muizzu (@MMuizzu), President of the Republic of Maldives, President of Peoples' National Congress (PNC) | PPM-PNC Coalition Leader – Maldives, tweeted this:


This is weird. If the real goal is "tobacco free society" then they should have just prohibited smoking outright. But they just raised the cigarette (a) import tax from 3 Rufiyaa (R) to R8, and (b) advalorem tax by 50%. This implies a partial cigarette ban.

A day before that, President Muizzu tweeted this, then reposted the reaction of WHO:



So it's partial cigarettes prohibition, and total vapes prohibition. How feasible or realistic is Maldives' President in aiming for this?

I created this table, I chose comparable countries with Maldives -- below 1 million in population, per capita income not less than $13,000. Then I checked their cigarette smoking prevalence. See the result.


Rich Europeans that are usually woke and have strict health regulations and high tobacco-alcohol taxes like Luxembourg, Iceland, Malta and Cyprus, their smoking prevalence is not far from Maldives', Cyprus even has higher smoking prevalence than Maldives. 

These countries may have aimed for zero-tobacco or very-low-tobacco-use society but they never succeeded. People smoking, vaping is no different from people doing sky diving, rock climbing, fast downhill cycling, sedentary and couch potato, drinking and partying, etc. -- they do what gives them pleasure without causing harm on other people.

And assuming that higher tobacco tax rates will bring more revenues to government while reducing smoking incidence -- people may be going for disappointment. In the case of the Philippines for instance, as tobacco tax rate increases, government tobacco tax revenues decline. The chart is from my column last June.


Why this is happening -- because many smokers shifted to smuggled and illicit tobacco that are cheap, prices are just 1/4 to 1/2 of legal tobacco. Others have shifted to vape and smuggling incidence here is also high.

Perhaps Maldives' President should reconsider his new policy. People will keep smoking, drinking, vaping, fast downhill cycling, etc. because it gives them pleasure somehow, without harming other people. If legal products are restricted and prohibited, then illegal, illicit products will simply fill in the vacuum, and government loses regulation capacity with regards to tax revenues and product quality monitoring.

Prohibitions will not work. High taxation supposedly to discourage certain actions and hobbies will not work. Respecting individual freedom and actions that do not harm others will work.

BWorld 743, Interest rate cuts and credit ratings upgrade

Interest rate cuts and credit ratings upgrade

September 24, 2024 | 12:02 am


My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2024/09/24/623268/interest-rate-cuts-and-credit-ratings-upgrade/ 


Among the important events that happened over the last few weeks was the big interest rate cuts in the US and Canada, with the Philippines, Indonesia and few other countries following with smaller interest rate cuts.

 

In Asia, the Philippines had, until the second quarter this year, the highest interest rate set by monetary authorities or central banks at 6.5%. Despite this policy, which was supposedly to control high inflation, the Philippines endured the highest inflation rate in the ASEAN-6 in 2023 at 6%, and the second highest in the region from January to July 2024 at 3.7%, next to Vietnam’s 4.1%.

 

So it was good that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) finally realized that its high interest rate policy should be reversed even if at a piecemeal rate.

 

Meanwhile, Japan raised its interest rate from -0.1% to 0.25% (see Table 1).

 


I bumped into the president of Meralco PowerGen Corp. (MGen), also the former president of Aboitiz Power Corp., Manny Rubio. He has a bright finance mind because two big conglomerates have trusted him. I asked Manny about the huge recent US Fed rate cut and its microeconomic impact to households, he replied that “Broadly it signals that the government is less worried now about controlling inflation and is now prepared to shift to an expansionary policy. For companies with substantial funding requirements to support their capex plans and new projects, this would mean a substantial reduction in their funding costs. Such savings would allow energy companies to complete new generation capacities and distribution facilities more cheaply which would eventually reduce the cost of electricity for the consumers.”

 

In a Viber message, Budget Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman welcomed the interest rate cuts of the US Fed and BSP, saying, “this will have significant reduction in our interest payment which is now a significant share of our total annual budget. And this will eventually lead to efficient budget allocation to sectors that need more funding and help expand our economy.”

 

Secretary Pangandaman’s concern is correct because the amount of our interest payments has been rising fast, from P361 billion in 2019 to P429 billion in 2021, P503 billion in 2022, P628 billion in 2023, and P457 billion already in January-July 2024 alone. If this trend continues, then the full year 2024 interest payment will rise to P783 billion. Or a doubling of our interest payment in just five years from 2019 to 2024.

 

ROADMAP TO CREDIT RATINGS


There were a number of recent pieces in BusinessWorld on the subject of credit ratings:  “Recto says Philippines still on track to achieve ‘A’ credit rating” (June 10), “Philippines needs 6-7% growth to achieve ‘A’ credit rating — Recto” (Aug. 14), “R&I upgrades PHL credit rating to ‘A-’” (Aug. 15), “Public-finance roadmap to help elevate PHL to ‘A’ credit rating — Budget dep’t” (Sept. 17), “Philippine credit rating upgrade possible if GDP grows faster than expected” (Sept. 18). There was also yesterday’s column, Introspective, entitled “Philippine sovereign credit rating: An ‘A’ rating, how soon?” (Sept. 23) by Alex Escucha.

 

My column has also discussed this subject previously: “Declining borrowings and improving credit ratings” (June 18), “Fast growth towards better credit ratings” (Aug. 13), “MUP pension reform and ‘A’ credit ratings” (Aug. 20).

 

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto and Budget Secretary Pangandaman’s desire for the Philippines to attain a credit rating of “A” is understandable. An “A” means our capacity to service our loan obligations is high, so the cost of borrowing, both public and corporate, will be lower. And financing important projects like infrastructure will entail lower costs. 

 

Currently, the Philippines has credit rating of BBB+ “stable” under S&P, Baa2 “stable” under Moody’s, and BBB “stable” under Fitch. Then there are the ratings of BBB+ “positive” from R&I, and A- “stable” from the Japan Credit Rating Agency (JCR). An A- from the JCR is good but it is the Big Three — S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch — that matter most.

 

One thing I notice though is that high credit ratings can also lead to the problem of a “moral hazard” in economics. Since the cost of borrowing is low due to high ratings, there is a tendency by governments to over-spend and over-borrow. So, the high ratings do not lead to less public debt and lower Debt/GDP ratios, the reverse can happen. This is happening in the G7 industrial countries and other countries around the world.

 

For example, there is Canada which has had a high AAA “stable” rating for decades and its Debt/GDP ratio kept rising, from 76% in 2003 to 107% in 2023. The US, the UK, France, Japan, and Italy all suffered declines in ratings over the past two decades but still at high A levels, except Italy (see Table 2).

 


An upgrade in ratings to “A” is important. But more important is how we can control our spending, deficit, and borrowings in years where there are no economic or finance crises, like 2022 to the present. We should have a budget surplus, not a deficit; we should reduce, not increase, our public debt stock; and we should reduce, not maintain, our Debt/GDP ratio.

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Climate 111, More oil consumption and declining frequency of storms

“Earth Day” was invented in April 1974 or 50 years and 7 months ago. It was invented to call for human attention vs “environmental damage” by oil and other fossil fuels, among other concerns.

In 1974, total world oil consumption was 55.3 million barrels per day (mbpd).

In 2007 when Al Gore and UN IPCC won the “Nobel Peace Prize” for their fight against “man-made” global warming and CC mainly caused by oil and fossil fuels, world oil use was 73.7 mbpd.

In 2023, it’s 100.2 mbpd. The world is not reducing oil demand despite all the climate scare mongering by the UN, Al Gore, Bloomberg, Greta, Obama, etc. The world keeps using more oil. And begging for more oil, and gas, and coal, and nuclear.

And yet the world is not plunging into horrible "unprecedented, unequivocal global warming," or "storms getting more frequent, getting stronger." An update from Dr. Ryan Made website tracking the number of storms worldwide from 1971 to Sept. 2024 shows a declining number of storms, both strong and average hurricanes.

https://climatlas.com/tropical/

The  latest data on El Nino-La Nina cycle also shows Nino region 3.4 going into La Niña with temperature anomaly or variation of -0.61 C as of last Monday, Oct. 28. A triple-dip La Nina in 2020-2022, global cooling. Then big and hot El Nino mid-2023-early 2024. And now it’s back to La Nina and there are rains and floods every week in many places in the PH alone.

The narrative “more oil, more fossil fuel consumption = more warming” (ie, more drought, more sea level rise,…) is not happening. Or "more fossil fuels = more storms, stronger storms" is not happening. The climate crusaders like Bloomberg been lying for decades. But they continue because… money. Trillions dollars money via carbon trading, subsidies to RE, etc. 

See this article by Mike Bloomberg himself:

The end of greenwashing is in sight
By Michael R. Bloomberg, May 30, 2024

"As a result, the market for carbon credits is much smaller — and far less productive — than it should be....
This is a market failure we can fix, and we should treat it like any other market failure....
A similar remedy is needed for carbon credits, because transparency does for markets what spinach does for Popeye. The story of Bloomberg is a testament to that..."

There. Mike Bloomberg himself is corrupt, advance climate scare mongering because his company will directly benefit via carbon market trading, among others. That is why practically all Bloomberg opinions and analysis on climate are on climate scare mongering. We should be scared of less rain and more rain, be scared of no flood and more flood, be scared of less cold and more cold, be scared of less dogs and more dogs. Whatever weather, whatever climate phase, we should be scared. And we should turn to the UN, and Bloomberg.

Trump ended US engagement with UN climate climate in 2017, all the woke minds including Bloomberg, their heads exploded. Walang raket pera pera under Trump. So Bloomberg people, from Mike himself down the line, must invent all scare mongering stories about Trump. Just make sure he does not go back to the white house and end climate climate racket, among others.
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