BWorld 801, On trade expansion and fiscal consolidation

On trade expansion and fiscal consolidation

June 12, 2025 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2025/06/12/678619/on-trade-expansion-and-fiscal-consolidation/

 

The US tariff escalation policy generated heavy public discussions and fears last April, but these have simmered down recently. There are winners and losers in the non-disruption in trade, and there are also winners and losers in trade disruption. In conventional economic trade theory, there is “net gain” (gainers and winners outnumber losers) in free trade which at the optimum implies zero tariffs and very few non-tariff barriers.

 

Last Tuesday, June 10, I attended a forum called “The US-China Tariff Trade War: Implications for the Philippines” at the AIM Conference Center in Makati, organized by Leverage International (Consultants), Inc. Among the panelists were Mike Toledo, Chair of the Chamber of Mines of the Philippines; Dr. Jess Arranza, Chair of the Federation of Philippine Industries; and Ruth Yu Owen, Chair of the Energy Committee of the Management Association of the Philippines. Jose Luis Yulo was the forum chairman and moderator.

 

I liked Mr. Toledo’s discussions on the mining export ban and the need for mining processing after a 10 year transition and preparation period, Metro Pacific Investments Corp.’s corporate farming, and Terra Solar projects; Mr. Arranza’s talk about the economic damage caused by smuggling and illicit trade on Philippines industries; and Ms. Owen’s talk on solar energy where she also recognized the need for coal and gas plants for baseload power generation.

 

Later in the afternoon, my former boss (and former Congressman, and former Finance Secretary) Gary Teves talked about macroeconomics and trade and he emphasized that we should focus on measures where we have control, like our own economic and trade policies, and not on events and policies abroad over which we have little control. I support that.

 

Then Congressman Joey Salceda talked about “Ruthless Ricardianism,” referring to David Ricardo’s theory of comparative advantage, but now in the context of the “ruthlessness” of a trade and tariff war. As usual he produced a lot of numbers and finance-related policy measures.

 

During the open forum, I briefly commented that when I checked the monthly trade data from the World Trade Organization (WTO), China, which is supposed to suffer a decline in exports actually experienced an expansion in exports.

 

Looking at the comparative January to April period, China’s exports increased from $1.084 trillion in 2023 to $1.10 trillion in 2024, and $1.169 trillion in 2025. In particular, their exports increased from $288.1 billion in April 2023, to $291.9 billion in April 2024, and $315.7 billion in April 2025.

 

In the accompanying table are the total exports for the first quarter of this year (many countries have not reported their April 2025 data yet). Like China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, and Singapore also experienced a sustained increase in exports, as did the Philippines but with a very small margin increase. The US, UK, and Mexico also showed marginal increases.

 

In contrast, many countries experienced a decline in exports, or remained steady, neither increasing or declining: Japan, South Korea, India, Malaysia, Germany, the Netherlands, France, Spain, Poland, Brazil, Canada, and Australia (see the table).

 

PHILIPPINES’ FISCAL CONSOLIDATION

Last Monday, June 9, the economic team held a big Investment Coordination Committee-Cabinet Committee (ICC-CC) meeting at the Department of Finance (DoF). Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto, as ICC-CC Chairperson, led the deliberations on the proposed and modified Official Development Assistance (ODA) and Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects submitted for the committee’s approval.

 

Also present were Economics Secretary and ICC-CC Co-Chairperson Arsenio M. Balisacan, Department of Budget and Management (DBM) Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman and Undersecretary Joselito R. Basilio, Trade Secretary Ma. Cristina A. Roque, Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr., Public Works Secretary Manuel M. Bonoan, Monetary Board member Romeo L. Bernardo, and PPP Executive Director Ma. Cynthia C. Hernandez, among other government officials.

 

For me, fiscal consolidation implies a reduction in certain spending and an expansion in revenues, tax and non-tax revenues so that the annual budget deficit and public borrowings can be controlled. Having more PPP infrastructure projects and less ODA is a good way to attain fiscal discipline and consolidation.

 

Last week, on June 4, the Government Optimization Bill, formerly called National Government Rightsizing Program was passed and ratified by the Bicameral Committee and now awaits the President’s signature. DBM Secretary Pangandaman was understandably happy with this development as the soon-to-be law will create a more efficient and responsive government.

 

Three weeks ago, on May 21, I was one of several NGO leaders invited by the DBM for the “Macroeconomic Insights for National Action: An Economic Dialogue with Civil Society” held at Luxent Hotel in Quezon City. While one transport NGO leader proposed another oil tax to discourage car usage and to shift more people to using bicycles and the mass transport system, I spoke to disagree because of the inflationary impact of any energy tax hike.