ASEAN for peace and prosperity, trade with China
ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star
April 23, 2026 | 12:00am
https://www.philstar.com/business/2026/04/23/2522840/asean-peace-and-prosperity-trade-china
On April 14, the Philippines issued a good and diplomatically written “ASEAN Chair’s Statement on the Outcomes of the Second Special ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting on the Situation in the Middle East.”
There were 14 points and the key messages there for me are “immediate cessation of hostilities… resolve their differences through peaceful means and to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations… maintaining stable, open, and reliable global energy supply chains and maritime trade routes…. minimizing disruption to the flow of energy and essential goods, including food and fertilizers…. enhance regional energy resilience, including the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Petroleum Security (APSA), the ASEAN Power Grid (APG) and the Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline (TAGP)… maintaining regional peace, stability and prosperity, upholding international law, and promoting dialogue and diplomacy as the primary means of reducing tensions and addressing conflicts.”
Peace and prosperity. These two terms are the overriding and repeating goal and purpose of the ASEAN regardless of country chairmanship that is rotating annually. Peace and no war, prosperity via trade, commerce and investments. More cargo ships and not battleships, more trucks and heavy machines and not heavy missiles and tanks.
On the energy side, it is good that the ASEAN reiterated the need for energy security and resilience, mentioned the value of petroleum and gas, stable regional grid, and fertilizers, which need lots of gas and coal as inputs in the case of urea.
The non-beautiful part of the statement for me is the reference to “accelerate energy transition and diversification, including renewable energy.” The real energy transition that the Philippines and other ASEAN member countries should aspire is transition from energy poverty to energy abundance. We cannot have economic and material prosperity without energy abundance, whether from fossil fuels or not.
In 2024, the Philippines has an average power generation of only 1,150 kwh per capita (kpc), Vietnam has 3,000 kpc and 1,500 of it is from coal alone. Malaysia has 6,380 kpc and 2,930 of it is from coal alone. Singapore has 9,880 kpc and 95 percent of it is from natural gas alone. More lights not less, more aircon not less, whether the electricity comes from oil-gas-coal-nuclear, or from solar-wind-hydro.
Also last week, April 15, the Office of Executive Secretary in behalf of the President issued a good statement, “Recto Meets Chinese Ambassador to Discuss PH–China Relations.”
ES Ralph Recto discussed with China Ambassador Jinq Quan the resumption of dialogues aimed at enhancing bilateral relations, from tourism, people-to-people exchanges, more direct flights between Philippine and Chinese cities, fight against transnational crimes, and overall economic relations, as well as the current energy situation.
This year the Philippines is chair of the ASEAN and China is chair of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). There are respective ASEAN Summit in Manila in May and APEC Summit in Beijing in November.
Philippines-China relations is characterized by more trade, of rising merchandise imports from China like more modern buses (Yutong, Higer, King Long, etc.), more huge trucks (Howo, Sinotruk, Shacman, etc.), more sleek cars (BYD, Geely, MG, GAC) or gadgets and appliances.
Trade data from the Philippines Statistics Authority show that the share of China in total Philippines merchandise imports for January-February period are as follows: 21.3 percent in 2023, 24.3 percent in 2024, 27.4 percent in 2025, 28.8 percent in 2026. Consistently rising trend while the share of other countries is declining, particularly Indonesia and the US.
Indonesia’s percent share in Philippines imports in the same period 2023 to 2026 declined from 10.4 to 7.3, 8.0, 7.0, respectively. And US share declined from 6.7 to 6.1, 6.4, 5.8, respectively.
It is not good to constantly imply war-mongering and higher Philippines defense spending over territory dispute. This regular move by the fiscally wasteful and war-hungry groups is against the spirit of ASEAN drive for peace and prosperity, “promoting dialogue and diplomacy as the primary means of reducing tensions and addressing conflicts.”
Meanwhile on the planned supplemental budget and borrowings to give more subsidies and freebies, see these two reports in The STAR written by Aubrey Rose Inosante: “Budget swings back to deficit in February” (April 8), “Philippines lacks fiscal room for supplemental budget, detrimental to deficit – CPBRD” (April 21).
The Congressional Policy and Budget Research Department (CPBRD) of the House of Representatives produced a new paper, “The Hidden Dangers in Crisis Policymaking: The Pitfalls of Price Controls and Expanded Deficit Spending during the Oil Crisis.” They correctly noted that “the enactment of the nearly half-trillion-peso stimulus package would sharply increase the estimated budget deficit from P1.65 trillion to P2.15 trillion… deficit-to-GDP ratio would rise to 6.9 percent from 5.3 percent.”
I support the CPBRD here. We should not keep expanding public spending on money we do not have. I can support creating new subsidies and freebies provided there is a cut or abolition of some existing (but non-working) subsidies and freebies.
And speaking of the budget, I condole with the family of Dr. Joselito “Jojit” Basilio, former undersecretary and principal economist at the Department of Budget and Management, who passed away this week due to heart attack.
Jojit was my former classmate in graduate studies at the UP School of Economics (UPSE), Program in Development Economics (PDE) batch 33rd in SY 1997-1999 and our adviser was former professor Ruping Alonzo (RIP). Jojit just came from a seminary when he took the PDE studies, proceeded to finish two MA degrees in UPSE and the US, then a PhD in economics from the University of Illinois at Chicago.
Rest in peace, Jojit. All our batchmates and classmates, former teachers and friends from UPSE miss you.
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