Friday, March 14, 2025

Free Trade 75, US trade deficit and Trump's 'tariff equalization' policy

The US has perennial trade deficit, about $2.6 billion a day in 2022-2024. Yes, per day. Biggest deficit recorded last January 2025 at $131.4 billion, last December at $98.1 billion. These were reactions by many importers in the US to get as much goods as they can before President Trump would impose higher tariff rate on many countries.


Trump is a free trader.  June 2018 G7 summit, he challenged all the six other member leaders of G7 to a zero tariff zero subsidy world. All of them were silent implying No. They are all funny protectionists. But in many media reports, Trump is often labelled as protectionist.


In international trade econonomics, there is a concept called factor price equalization (FPE) theory, and commodity price equalization (CPE) theory when there is full free trade, meaning tariff is zero or similar level for trading countries. And no non-tariff barriers (NTBs).

The Trump approach should be technically called "tariff equalization" and not tariff or trade protectionism. If CA or MX slaps 250% to 390% tariff for imported US dairy products (milk, cheese, etc), then CA or MX is the protectionist and drew the first blood. If Trump goes for tariff equalization, meaning 250% to 390% tariff on imported CA or MX dairy or agri products, it should not be called as "Trump protectionism."

HK has unilateral zero tariff policy, whether other countries impose 5% or 50% for their imports from HK, HK slaps zero tariff on imports from all countries. Except on products of natl concern like imports of guns, explosives, hazardous chemicals etc. that are regulated.

Most protectionist groups want protectionism for their sector only but want free trade in all other sectors. Rice or vegetable farmers want high tariff for imported rice and veggies. But they want zero tariff and lower price for all their other imported needs -- clothes, gadgets, appliances, tractors, oil, spare parts, etc.

Even at zero tariff, local producers have cost advantage over imported goods -- no more shipping cost, insurance cost, especially for geographically isolated countries like PH.

Free trade creates good will among countries and people. A German or Mexican or Nigerian tourist would be happy to see that products from their country are available in malls and groceries at competitive prices here. Facilitating PH exports to their countries would be easier bec of that good will.

May 2006 I already argued that PH and other countries shd have unilateral free trade, zero tariff policy, https://funwithgovernment.blogspot.com/2006/05/free-trade-free-choice.html.
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