Water deficit and alarmism surplus

(This is my article for www.thelobbyist.biz, 21 July 2010)

The country’s media outlets were bombarded this week by “water crisis”, “water woes to get worse” and related stories. Some friends asked me if the current water deficit in Metro Manila is due to global warming and man-made climate change.

My quick answer is NO. There is no global heat wave, there is no extension of the most recent El Nino, and there is no postponement to the forthcoming La Niña.

And the “inconvenient truth” for people and groups who want to hear “more global warming” stories, is that Pacific Ocean.is now is now “in early stage of a La Nina event, and that 2010 will be considered a La Niña year.”

Below is an update, as of July 19, 2010, of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in the Pacific Ocean. An SOI of -8 or lower means El Niño while an SOI of +8 or more means La Niña.



Source: Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

The region Nino 3.4, where the Philippines is, has also shown 0.4 °C cooler than normal for June 2010.

If we also look at the global temperature of the lower troposphere (about 8 kilometers above the surface), is there truth to “worsening man-made warming” and hence, “more frequent water crisis” claims?

Here is a graph of global temperature anomaly of the lower troposphere, satellite data from the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH), 1998-2010. Red fluctuating line is monthly temperature data, green straight line is the linear trend.



Source: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1998/to:2010/plot/uah/from:1998/trend:2010

There was no significant warming in the planet after the big El Nino in 1998. The global cooling in 1999 to 2001 was repeated in 2008 cooling. And with the current trend in decline in global tropospheric temperature and sea surface temperature, another round of global cooling – and severe rains in the tropics and severe winter in the northern and southern hemispheres – is expected starting this month up to the next few years.

So, should the President declare a “water crisis calamity” in Metro Manila and the neighboring provinces? Aren’t the long lines of people in certain areas of the metropolis enough proof of how serious the crisis is?

No, there is no crisis. Per projections by the water companies in the metropolis, if there will no sufficient rain to fall until September this year, it will become a full-blown crisis.

Meanwhile, how to solve the water deficit in some areas of the metropolis? Perhaps the quicker solution is for some sharing of water by Manila water and Maynilad water for now. Then wait for the rains in the coming weeks and months as the two graphs shown above clearly indicate of falling temperatures both in the atmosphere and the ocean.

There is no global warming. The water "crisis" in the metropolis is more of an engineering problem, not a climate problem. For instance, there seems to be a lack of dams to catch excess rain water during the rainy season in the country.

When I go to the US, my plane passes by Japan. I observe from my window that in the mountains of Japan, a single river would have up to seven dams to temporarily impound the water. So that for one river system, there are five to seven water catchment areas with a huge total volume of water supply.

Here in the Philippines, there seems to be only one or two dam/s to catch and impound water from rivers. One long-term solution, therefore, is to build more smaller dams upstream, to have more water catchments in the mountains. This will (a) reduce flash flooding during the rainy season, and (b) impound water for multiple uses during the dry or summer season, like irrigating upland farms.

Those dams need not be government-owned and operated. They can be owned and operated by the water concessionaires which have long-term water supply contract with the government. So there is no pressure on public finance.

There were also reports that there was an excess release of water from the dams last December 2009, equivalent to almost three months of water consumption in Metro Manila.

Such mistake should not be repeated again.

Current water supply deficit in Metro Manila and nearby provinces is part of the water supply deficit - excess – deficit – excess natural cycles. What the public should worry is the excess in climate alarmism that find their way in more environmental regulations, more carbon taxation, more climate bureaucracies being created, and endless global climate meetings that are funded from taxpayers’ money.

UST forum with Tom Palmer, July 16

A good friend, Dr. Alvin Ang, Professor of Economics at the University of Santo Tomas (UST), the oldest university in Asia -- it will turn 400 years old next year -- is among the first persons that comes to my mind if I have visitor-friends from abroad who are great free marketers. Alvin used to be the Director of UST's Social Research Center (SRC). Now he is the Director, Research Cluster for Cultural, Educational and Social Issues of UST.

Upon seeing Tom Palmer's credentials, Alvin contacted another department in UST and a student organization to help co-sponsor Tom's talk. The Social Sciences Department, SRC and the Artlets Economics Society jointly sponsored the event, in coordination with Minimal Government Thinkers, Inc.



The venue was big, some 200+ students of Economics, Political Science and Philosophy came. Tom's presentation was entitled "Liberty, limited government and the rule of law in the wake of the global economic crisis," downloadable at www.minimalgovernment.net. The reactors were Dr. Ernesto Gonzales of Economics Department, Dr. Robert Montana of Philosophy Department, and Prof. Zenia Rodriguez of Political Science Department.



A number of students asked both practical and theoretical questions. Great young minds at UST!

Below, Alvin gave the certificate of appreciation to Tom. Looking on was Dr. EJ Lopez, also a faculty member at the Economics Department.



Hats off to Alvin's leadership, other faculty members' support and UST students' intelligent participation.

FNF forum with Tom Palmer, July 15

After the talk at UP in Quezon City, we proceeded to Makati City for Tom's talk at the Friedrich Naumann Foundation's (FNF) new office at 7pm. FNF Manila invited the alumni of the International Academy for Leadership (IAF), those who went to Gummersbach, Germany for its various international seminars.



Yes, a big number of people came, could be 50+ including some FNF staff and some university students.



Tom's topic that evening was "Liberty, constitutionalism and the rule of law", 42 slides of heavy political theory, available at www.minimalgovernment.net and at www.fnf.org.ph. Here's one of the slides.



That's why the audience were hooked listening to him.



With Chito Gascon, a high official of the Liberal Party (LP), the political party of the new President of the country, Noynoy Aquino.

UP Forum with Tom Palmer, July 15

Tom Palmer's first speaking engagement in Manila, also his first time to visit the country, would be at the University of the Philippines (UP), jointly sponsored by the Third World Studies Center (TWSC) and Political Science Department, July 15, 2010 4pm.

I gave a short message before Tom's lecture. I said that I learned Marxism and hatred of the market in the early 80s at the TWSC and as a Pol. Sci student in UP, from Profs. Alex Magno and Temy Rivera, two of the reactors that afternoon (audience laughter). But I abandoned the philosophy several years ago, I have embraced free market, more individual freedom philosophy. But since I am not really a good speaker, and upon learning that Tom will be going to Manila, I suggested to some friends at TWSC and Pol Sci department, if they are willing to organize a talk for Tom. And that's why we were gathered that afternoon.



Here is one of his slides where he explained the beauty of free trade and the concept of comparative advantage.



Could be 50 students and staff attended the lecture including those who came late. Mostly political science students, graduate and undergrad.



Tom's 32-slides presentation, "Individual rights, property and free markets", is available at the MG Thinkers website, www.minimalgovernment.net, also at the http://uptwsc.blogspot.com.

Tom Palmer in Manila

A known libertarian intellectual, Dr. Tom G. Palmer (www.tomgpalmer.com), Vice President for International Relations of the Atlas Economic Research Foundation (www.atlasnetwork.org) and Senior Fellow at Cato Institute (www.cato.org), came to Manila late last week.

Tom has been visiting a number of Asian countries to meet new people, especially liberty-oriented guys. More than a month ago, he went to 3 Central Asian countries -- Kyrgyztan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan. This month, he visited Japan, Philippines and China.

His schedule in Manila was last July 15 to 17, flying out on the 18th (yesterday) to Xiamen, China. His aide, Jude Blanchette, accompanied him. Jude asked if I could arrange for Tom's schedule on July 15 and 16. I thought of bringing Tom to several universities in the Philippines to talk about individual liberty, free market, rule of law, and related topics.

Below are the places that I arranged for Tom's talk.

1. July 15, Thurs, University of the Philippines (UP) Diliman campus.
4-6pm, Third World Studies Center (TWSC) conference room, UP
"Individual rights and free market"
Sponsored by: UP TWSC and UP Political Science Department

Pictures of the event are posted here, http://uptwsc.blogspot.com/

2. July 15, 7pm
Friedrich Naumann Foundation (FNF) Manila office
"Liberty, Constitutionalism and the Rule of Law"

Pictures and presentation material should be posted within the week at their website, www.fnf.org.ph

3. July 16, 9-11am
University of Santo Tomas (UST), Manila
"Liberty, Individualn rights and Rule of law in the aftermath of the global economic crisis"

Co-sponsored by the UST:
Social Research Center (SRC),
Social Science Department,
Artlets Economics Society

4. July 16, 2:30-4pm
University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P), Ortigas Center, Mandaluyong City
"US crisis, the role of bail-outs and free trade"

I am very thankful to the following coordinators for the above events:

1. TWSC and Pol Sci -- Dr. Ela Atienza, Director of TWSC and Professor of Political Science, and Elinor, TWSC staff.
2. FNF -- Minnie Salao and Dorothy Salvador
3. UST -- Dr. Alvin Ang, Professor of Economics and former Director, SRC
4. UA&P -- Dr. George Manzano, Professor of Economics.

Thank you all guys!

I will post more details about the above events in the coming days.

And thanks again, Tom and Jude, for visiting us in Manila. Tom's theoretical discussion about individual rights, limited government and free market were very enlightening to the audience, especially to university students.

Business Bureaucracy 2: We don't need a new DICT bureaucracy

Last week, I received an email interview from the online editor of BusinessWorld, asking my opinions about the creation of a new agency, the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT). Right now, there is Commision on ICT (CICT) and some sectors want to make this a bigger bureaucracy, hence convert it into a DICT.

Here is the new report today. I was mentioned in the latter part of the story. I simply argued that we do not need a new bureaucracy. Many people think that when a problem comes, the solution is to create a new government bureaucracy, or to expand an existing one to a bigger bureaucracy.
--------

http://www.bworldonline.com/main/content.php?id=14085

Posted on 08:40 PM, July 12, 2010

BY MARICEL E. ESTAVILLO, Online Editor

New administration set to face old ICT concerns


DICT and cybercrime bills pending in Congress await action
Almost two weeks have passed since President Benigno Simeon C. Aquino III held a press conference to name his Cabinet members.

When it comes to his pick for the country’s next information technology honcho, however, the new president has kept his silence.

“[The CICT is] below Cabinet. There is [still] a debate whether to transform it into a department. There is a pending measure in the legislature transforming it into a department level position,” Mr. Aquino said during the press briefing.

The Commission on Information and Communications Technology (CICT) is a transition agency pending a resolution over the Senate Bill 2546, which seeks to create the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT).

The CICT was formed in 2004 through an executive order of former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. Its creation brought together the National Computer Center of the Department of Science and Technology (DoST), the Telecommunications Office (TELOF) and the communications units of the Department of Transportation and Communications (DoTC).

Despite the clamor for its enactment from the private sector, led by the foreign chambers and the top industry groups, and despite the fact that Mrs. Arroyo certified the bill as urgent, it was never passed at the Senate before the last Congress ended last February. The bill’s counterpart in the lower house was already approved in 2008.

In a briefing held at the Malacañang last week, CICT chairman Ray Anthony Roxas-Chua III said most of the employees of the agency would continue to work while awaiting for new directives from Mr. Aquino.

Two days before the presidential inauguration, two of the agency’s top officials, Mr. Chua and CICT commissioner and National Computer Center director-general Angelo Timoteo M. Diaz de Rivera said they were ready to return to the private sector should the president appoint new officials.

With even the CICT at a standstill, the industry can only wait to see whether the Aquino administration puts a conclusion on one of the local technology sector’s longest-running sagas.

In an interview, TELOF executive director Graciano Sitchon said that now is the best time to review the proposal for DICT creation. “There could be something wrong in the way the bill was packaged [which could explain] why it has not yet been passed,” Mr. Sitchon said.

Among others, he said the supposedly anomalous $329-million national broadband network deal (NBN) with China’s ZTE Corp. has made it difficult for the bill to be enacted with both the public and politicians wary about technology-related transactions.

The NBN proposal has its roots in the vision of linking government agencies nationwide through a network which the CICT was espousing in its nascent days.

There was also the lack of appreciation by the Congress on the vital role that the proposed department could play in improving the economy of the country, said Maricor M. Akol, IT practitioner and president of industry group IT Foundation of the Philippines (ITFP).

Proponents of the DICT have repeatedly argued that most developed and progressive countries have DICT counterparts.

Ms. Akol surmised that the bill failed to get the Senate’s attention because there were “too many lawyers and a lack of technocrats in Congress,” adding that the “inability of CICT to come out with more convincing and pressing arguments to an disinterested Congress” was also a factor.

Meanwhile, groups lobbying against the creation of the DICT stressed that even without the department, the industry has been able to grow.

To illustrate, the business process outsourcing (BPO) sector, which started its ascent in 2000, has grown to become a $7.2-billion industry employing a total of 442,164 workers as of 2009, according to government data.

“The BPO sub-sector has developed despite having no DICT. I would even hazard that if there was a DICT bureaucracy, the BPO’s growth in the country may have been stunted,” said Bienvenido Oplas, Jr. in a separate interview. “A DICT is not a must, not a necessity for the industry.”

Mr. Oplas is the president of Minimal Government Thinkers, Inc., a group that proposes minimal government intervention in business.

“The government bureaucracy should shrink and be reduced, not expand. Each new bureaucracy that is created or expanded means new taxes and fees that need to be created or expanded. And each new bureaucracy means new politics from the executive to the legislative branches,” he added.

Ms. Akol countered this claim, saying that “while the private sector has grown despite the lack of a department, the existence of one could further help its growth through more aggressive policies.”

More than overseeing the business sector, she said the proposed DICT should be on top of the government’s use of technology, which is considered as the single biggest user of ICT.

“There must be an authority that not only comes out with ICT policies but must also be able to implement these policies at the most cost-efficient/effective means [such as] the sharing of facilities, databases and networks,” she said....

* See also: Business Bureaucracy 1: Avoiding government: Egyptian experience, March 12, 2007

Governors and governed relationship

There's a good article by Prof. Winnie Monsod -- my former undergrad thesis adviser in UP in the 80s -- "We, the people, in P.Noy's governance". Prof. Winnie wrote,

"Can he do it? There’s the rub. He can do it only if we are with him every step of the way—looking over his shoulder and those of other officials, breathing down their necks, exercising countervailing power on business lobby groups, and making sure we toe the line, too. (Who do you think does the corrupting?)"

The governors and the governed, the administrators and the administered, have intertwining relationship. Governors and administrators can be corrupt if the governed will allow it.

But beyond pushing people, us, to be "vigilant" of what the government is doing, I would still encourage or remind my fellow private citizens that government is us. The elected and appointed officials and bureaucrats are imposed upon us but the real challenge is on us as responsible individuals and parents or guardians. Do we allow our kids to become drunkards and drug addicts then we run to the government later so that government will heal our kids from liver cancer and drug dependence?

If parents and individuals are responsible enough, we need less external government.
Instead, we need more "internal" government -- within us, within our voluntary organizations (from our sports club or civic club or alumni association or church group, etc.).

Climate and government failure

In one of my discussion yahoogroups, there is an exchange about when a new administration will fail or not. In this case, the administration of the new President of the Philippines which was inaugurated just two weeks ago.

I think one potential failure of the new Philippine government is huge borrowing due to climate alarmism. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) -- and WB, UN, EC, etc. -- climate alarmism is earning it (them) big money. To convince the RP govt to borrow $1B, or is it $10B to "fight global warming" is no different from a drug pusher, pushing loans to fight a non-existent enemy. Those are loans, not grants, that will be paid many years from now, and those are not just a few million $ loan but multi-billion $ loans.

For those wondering why I am so unconvinced about "man-made warming" scam and its implications -- ecological socialism, endless carbon taxation, endless environmental regulations, endless global climate meetings, endless climate bureaucracies being created, endless climate loans, etc., here's my recent compilation of short essays, including the scientific conference I attended in Chicago 2 months ago,
"Essays on Climate Alarmism", 20 pages,
http://www.minimalgovernment.net/media/mg_20100630.pdf

There are many ways to contribute to new government failures.

And foreign aid is one of them.