BWorld 810, Monsoon rains, a climate-related budget, and coal energy

Monsoon rains, a climate-related budget, and coal energy

July 24, 2025 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2025/07/24/687091/monsoon-rains-a-climate-related-budget-and-coal-energy/

 

The ongoing southwest monsoon or habagat has resulted in a “classless society” — there have been no classes from the elementary level to college for several days now due to the almost nonstop rains (with or without a typhoon). Floods have become a normal sight in many areas of Metro Manila and cities in the provinces. Questions about government “flood control projects” have resurfaced, naturally.

 

Last week, on July 15, the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) got approval from President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. and the Cabinet for the FY 2026 National Expenditure Program (NEP) that it had prepared. The proposed P6.793-trillion budget is equivalent to 22% of the projected GDP for 2026 and higher by 7.4% from this year’s P6.326-trillion budget.

 

DBM Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman said in a press statement that “The President himself sat down with the different agencies to ensure that all our priorities are aligned towards our common goal of achieving our vision of a Bagong Pilipinas.”

 

One notable thing about next year’s budget is that the combined budget request of all agencies, as of last April, had reached P10.101 trillion. I think it is a horrible desire by many agencies to spend-spend-spend with little or no regard for where the funding will come from.

 

Government spending on climate-related programs and projects, like flood control, is rising. From P127 billion in 2015 and P137 billion in 2016, this jumped to P569 billion in 2023. The bulk of spending went to the Department of Public Works and Highways (see Table 1).

 

One problem in the Philippines and in many other countries is that whatever the climate or weather — whether there is less rain or more rain, fewer floods or more floods, it is less cold or more cold — these are all taken as “proof” of “man-made climate change” and hence need man-made “solutions.” Meaning that the government, the UN, and multilaterals offer solutions like more climate spending, more climate bureaucracies, and huge meetings.

 

Among such “solutions” is the long-term shut down of coal plants, especially in smaller countries like the Philippines that can be easily bullied by the multilaterals and big media. For instance, in a report published here in BusinessWorld, “Philippines set for first coal power decline in 17 years amid rising LNG use” (July 22), Reuters explicitly mentioned a “coal phase-out policy.”

 

Why do they target the Philippines, or sometimes Indonesia and Vietnam, for their anti-coal agenda when other countries have much, much bigger coal consumption than us? In 2024, the Philippines’ coal generation was 79 terawatt-hours (TWh) while China, India, the US, and Japan have generated 5,828, 1,518, 712, and 301 TWh respectively.

 

The rising use of artificial intelligence (AI) and data centers means even larger power demand as AI is very energy intensive. In 2024, the expansion in power generation was twice or even thrice the average yearly power generation from 2014-2023. The Philippines, for instance, had an average of only 4.7 TWh a year from 2014-2023, but had a 10 TWh increase in 2023 and 2024.

 

It is notable, too, that countries that have expanded their coal use considerably have also seen a big expansion in overall power generation and high average GDP growth over the last 10 years. Examples are China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Turkey.

 

And countries with big declines in coal use also have seen slow expansion in total power generation and low average GDP growth. Examples are Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, Germany, Spain, and the UK (see Table 2).

 

We should address rising rivers and creeks, not rising oceans. We should spend public resources on regular, annual dredging of those rivers and creeks to reduce flooding, not on climate meetings and bureaucracies. We should focus on net growth and not net zero. We should focus on developing abundant and stable electricity sources available 24/7, not unstable, intermittent, weather- and battery-dependent energy sources.

 

Horrible monsoon rains are annual events, with a minimum five days straight during which the sun is hardly visible. We should have electricity available even if the sun is not shining for days, even if the wind is not blowing for days.

PhilStar 51, Stormy months and energy infrastructure

Stormy months and energy infrastructure

 

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star 

July 24, 2025 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2025/07/24/2460176/stormy-months-and-energy-infrastructure

 

The ongoing southwest monsoon or habagat is one of the worst monsoon rains that I can remember in recent years. The cloudy and showery days started last Thursday, July 17, with strong rains that led to cancellation of classes a day after, or on July 18. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) projection as of Wednesday shows they foresee “yellow” alert for rains, 50-100 mm, until at least tomorrow, July 25. So at least nine days of dark sky and non-windy weather.

 

Luckily for us, the various energy players and agencies are doing the necessary preparations and precautions to save us from blackouts.

 

Meralco has been regularly issuing daily updates like the “Update on power restoration efforts in habagat-hit areas.” Meralco vice president and head of corporate communications Joe Zaldarriaga announced recently that “As we continue to closely monitor the weather situation given the entry of Tropical Depression Dante, we assure our customers that we will not stop until service is safely restored to all affected customers. Meralco also deployed high-bed trucks and motorized fiberglass boats to help in power restoration and aid in rescue efforts.”

 

The National Grid Corp. of the Philippines, the operator of our nationwide transmission system, also regularly issues updates about the status of transmission facilities that they are “under normal conditions,” that they are ready to activate the 24/7 operations of their Overall Command Center (OCmC).

 

The Department of Energy convened a meeting of the Task Force on Energy Resiliency related to continuing monsoon rains plus the entry of a new storm. DOE Secretary Sharon Garin emphasized the need for vigilance and swift action to ensure continued energy availability and stability even during harsh rainy conditions.

 

Southwest monsoon or habagat coming from South China Sea that occur from June to September bring lots of rains, minimum five days that the sun is hardly visible. Northeast monsoon or amihan coming from Siberia that occur from October to February bring lots of cold air and rain.

 

So solar and wind farms have little or zero output while business and household electricity demand continues. It is the fossil fuel plants like coal, gas and diesel, traditional renewables like geothermal and big hydro, that provide electricity 24/7 to the people, not intermittent renewables.

 

I remember that the Philippines, Luzon in particular, has experienced four “years without summer” because there were rains for 12 months – in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023. It was only last year that there was three months of no rain, very dry and hot months from March to May. This year is another “year without summer” as there were rains even in March to May and June was regular rainy season.

 

It was the coal plants that provided ample supply and stable electricity those years. The share of coal as percent of total power generation was 56.3 percent in 2020, went up to 61.6 percent in 2021, 65.1 percent in 2022, 66.2 percent in 2023, and declined to 61.1 percent in 2024 as the plants experienced sub-optimal conditions under very hot days and weeks.

 

This year, the big gas plants of the consortium composed of Aboitiz Power, Meralco Power Gen (MGen) and San Miguel Global Power, the South Premier/Ilijan and Excellent Energy Resources Inc. LNG plants in Batangas are pumping huge electricity supply. See these reports also in The Philippine STAR: “Tycoons to complete Philippines’ 1st onshore LNG storage” (March 29), “Energy giants all set for 2,500-MW boost” (May 26). It quoted MGen president and CEO Emmanuel Rubio saying that “By the end of May, 2,500 MW of gas capacity will be available.”

 

So while coal plants output will remain high, their share to total generation will decline and be diluted by high power output from these two big LNG plants.

 

I saw these reports this year in The STAR, “AboitizPower expanding AI use across coal fleet” (May 30), and “AboitizPower steps up digital shift with AI-driven analytics” (June 10). It refers to their Project Arkanghel aimed at modernizing its existing coal plants to ensure availability, reliability and resiliency. Good. Their coal plant in Cebu helps supply electricity in my province Negros Occidental, and their coal plant in Davao since 2016 has greatly helped ending Mindanao’s daily “Earth Hours.”

 

On a broader view, government infrastructure agencies should prepare for rising rivers and lakes, rising creeks and esteros from flooding, not rising ocean. The former are real and actual occurrences yearly while rising ocean remains a fictional narrative.

 

Meaning public funds should be used for regular, annual, large-scale dredging of rivers and creeks, including construction of small artificial lakes, weirs and other water catchment and storage structures. Not in unproductive climate meetings, travels and bureaucracies.

 

Climate change is true. Warming-cooling-warming-cooling cycle since planet Earth was born some 4.6 billion years ago. Natural and cyclical climate change, nature-made and not man-made.

 

As this column has argued in the past, we should focus on net growth, not net zero. Thus we should have an agnostic energy sourcing policy, no favoritism between conventional fossil fuels vs intermittent renewables. Making those various energy sources become more stable, reliant and resilient especially in rainy, stormy or non-windy days and weeks should be a priority both for government and private energy players.

BWorld 809, 10 issues about CMEPA and US-PHL trade

10 issues about CMEPA and US-PHL trade

July 22, 2025 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2025/07/22/686502/10-issues-about-cmepa-and-us-phl-trade/

 

Last week, lots of misconceptions (if not outright falsehoods) about the new Capital Markets Efficiency Promotion Act (CMEPA) circulated on social media. And today, President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. is meeting with US President Donald Trump at the White House. Among the topics to be discussed between them is the 20% tariff on Philippine exports to the US. I will discuss both topics here.

 

PHL SAVINGS RATE AND CMEPA

I checked the savings rate as a percentage of GDP (S/GDP ratio) and saw that the Philippines had somehow caught up with some East Asian neighbors like Hong Kong and Malaysia in 2019. But when the lockdown dictatorship happened in 2020, many people’s savings evaporated and now we have the lowest S/GDP ratio in Asia (see Table 1).

 

We need to devise ways to raise our S/GDP ratio. The newly enacted CMEPA (RA 12214) is one tool, and yet it encountered pushback due to misconceptions. Among these are the following:

 

1. The CMEPA taxes our bank savings. Wrong. It taxes only the interest income of our savings. For instance, savings of P100,000 in a bank earning, say, 0.8% a year, means an interest income of P800/year. A tax of 20% means a tax payment of only P160/year.

 

2. The 20% final withholding tax (FWT) on interest income is due to CMEPA. Wrong. That FWT is an old law under the National Internal Revenue Code of 1997 (28 years ago), charging a 20% final tax on interest earned from bank deposits with a maturity of less than three years. The tax on interest income for both savings and time deposits is now a uniform FWT of 20%. There is no more preferential treatment for wealthy depositors.

 

3. The CMEPA raises transaction costs for other investments. Wrong. It reduces transaction costs. Before, the Philippines had the highest Stock Transaction Tax (STT) on the sale or exchange of shares in the ASEAN at 0.6%. CMEPA reduced the STT to 0.1%, so investing in the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) becomes more cost-competitive.

 

My friend and fellow free marketer Eric Jurado, who owns The International Investor which manages the SeA (Southeast Asia) Focus Portfolio, has good data on the trading value in the stock markets of the ASEAN-6 in May this year. Looking at value in billion dollars and the number of listed companies, respectively, these are the results: Thailand, $25.2 billion, 857 companies; Singapore, $21 billion, 612; Vietnam, $17.9 billion, 699; Indonesia, $15.3 billion, 956; Malaysia, $12.1 billion, 1,056; and the Philippines, $3 billion, only 284 companies. With CMEPA, we hope that our country’s stock market would become as dynamic as Malaysia’s or Indonesia’s in a few years.

 

4. The CMEPA has raised other taxes. Wrong. It reduced the Documentary Stamp Tax (DST), or stamp duty on the original issuance of shares by corporations, from 1% to 0.75%. The equity side — sales tax has been reduced from 60 basis points to just 10 basis points.

 

5. The CMEPA discourages savings with new financial taxes. Wrong. The CMEPA encourages savings outside of time deposits, like the stock market or real estate investment trusts (REITs) where the tax is lower at 10% and is liquid, meaning the money can be pulled out any time and is not locked in for several years. Plus, there are other saving programs managed by the government like Pag-IBIG MP2 savings and Retail Treasury Bonds (RTBs), which are additional options for investment by the public.

 

6. Savings of OFWs like time deposit are taxed. Wrong. Savings of OFWs are exempted. In addition, the DST on Mutual Funds and Unit Investment Trust Funds (UITFs) — collective investment schemes which are popular among young professionals and middle-class savers, are now tax-exempt.

 

Bottomline, the CMEPA is a good law. It opens more savings and investment options for the public so they can build their wealth and retirement funds while removing the preferential rates for the very rich who can afford to park their money for several years at higher, untaxed, interest income.

 

US TARIFF AND PHILIPPINE EXPORTS

Continuing the 10 issues, here are the other four which are related to trade.

 

7. The US is the Philippines’ number one exports market. The latest data for January to May this year show that nearly 16% of our total exports went to the US, up from 15% in 2022 and 2023. Japan, Hong Kong, and China are the next three big destinations of our exports (see Table 2).

 

8. The US has imposed a 20% tariff on Philippine exports effective Aug. 1 which is next week. This is lower than the tariffs imposed on most East Asian nations but still high compared to the previous rate of below 10%.

 

9. The Philippines is ready to charge zero tariff on some US exports to us. Two recent reports in BusinessWorld are related to this: “Indonesia-US trade deal poses competition challenges for PHL” (July 16), and “PHL eyes zero tariffs on some US goods” (July 21).

 

Indonesia was earlier slapped with a 32% tariff, but after negotiations, this was brought down to 19% while US exports to Indonesia will be tariff-free. Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto announced that we are ready to impose no tariffs for imports from the US as part of tariff negotiations with Washington. “Not for all products, but we have identified a set of products.” This is a good position.

 

10. Ultimately, we should push for free trade agreements (FTA) with the US and more countries, go for zero tariffs both ways and reduce non-tariff barriers.

 

There are net gains — the gains are larger than the pains — from lower taxes and from free trade. We should go for these.

Energy 185, Rising coal use in Asia especially Vietnam, China, India

There are several reports and papers saying that VN is cutting its coal use and shifting more to solar-wind. Not true. VN keeps expanding its coal power generation, give cheap, dependable and reliable electricity to its households and companies. In 2024, PH total power generation from all sources (coal, gas, hydro, wind, solar, ...) was 130 TWH. While VN power generation from coal alone was 153 TWH already.

And compared to CN, our total coal generation in 1 year is equivalent to only 5 days of their coal generation. Data from Energy Inst., Stat Review of World Energy 2025.

Then the narrative that VN's solar-wind generation keeps rising, half true and half false. It has increased significantly around 2021-2022, then it plateaud, no continuing expansion.

Meanwhile, a good reminder from Bjorn Lomborg re "cheap" or "getting cheaper" intermittent energy.

And Dr. Ryan Maue has updated the Climate Atlas page. Here the monthly global accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) from 1972 to July 2025. From 2021-2025 are less windy, less stormy years than 2018-2020. No "climate crisis", the narrative "storms getting stronger, planter" is false and fake news. There are years with strong storms, years with weak or few storms.

----------------

See also: 

Energy 182, Blackout becoming more common word in Europe, May 31, 2025

Energy 183, Costly offshore wind on the retreat, July 21, 2025

Energy 184, US PJM's 'Max Generation Alert', July 25, 2025

BWorld 808, Economic basis of net zero is zero, redux

Economic basis of net zero is zero, redux

July 15, 2025 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2025/07/15/685070/economic-basis-of-net-zero-is-zero-redux/

 

Consider this as Part 2 of my earlier article in this column, “Economic basis of net zero is zero” (Sept. 5, 2023). In that paper, I compared coal consumption per capita, electricity generation per capita and GDP per capita for the period 2002 vs 2022.

 

The results were: one, Industrial countries that have fast “decarbonization” and are weaning themselves away from coal consumption have an overall electricity generation that either flatlines or declines, and their GDP per capita has expanded by two times at most. And two, the electricity generation of developing Asian countries that have expanded their coal consumption per capita has doubled or quadrupled, and their per capita GDP has expanded up to five times.

 

For simpler definition, “net zero” here refers to the goal of deliberate reduction of coal/total power generation or C/T ratio as countries transition towards more solar/wind in their electricity production.

 

In this column, I will compare the C/T ratio and total power generation of countries over four decades, their average inflation rate and average GDP growth.

 

Two industrialized countries have experienced an ironic decline in their total power generation — the UK and Germany. The UK’s electricity generation fell from 327 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 1994 to 285 TWh in 2024 or a 12.7% change. Germany’s power generation fell from 528 TWh in 1994 to 497 TWh in 2024 or a 5.9% change. The decline coincided or was indirectly caused by a huge decline in average C/T ratio — the UK from 62% in 1994 to only 5% in 2024, and Germany from 57% in 1994 to 31% in 2024.

 

In contrast, China and Vietnam had a 987% and 2,370% increase, respectively in total power generation from 1994 to 2024. The decadal C/T ratio was 64-77% for China and 29-43% for Vietnam. The Philippines had a 326% increase in power generation from 1994-2024 and average C/T ratio rose from7% to 56% (see Table 1).

 

The economic consequences of rapid “decarbonization” and mad rush to net zero for the industrial west are clear. For the period 1985-1994 to 2015-2024, average GDP growth rate was declining for the UK from 2.6% to 1.4%, for Germany from 2.8% to 0.9% and for Canada from 2.4% to 1.8%.

 

The average inflation rate from 1995-2004 to 2015-2024 periods for the decarbonizing and net zero countries had rising trend: from 1.6% to 3% for the UK, from 1.3% to 2.7% for Germany and from 2% to 2.6% for Canada.

 

In contrast, coal-heavy Asians had rising or high growth GDP from 4-10% and declining average inflation rate. This was true for the Philippines, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, China and Vietnam. Taiwan, Thailand and South Korea had modest GDP growth of 2-9% and low inflation rate (see Table 2).

 

So for developing, emerging and industrialization-aspiring countries like the Philippines, we should prioritize net growth and not net zero, declining inflation and not declining power generation. The economic basis of net zero is zero. So I repeat the conclusion of my earlier article on this topic: We should prioritize our national agenda — more sustained growth, more job creation, more electricity for rising demand from households and industry. The global agenda of global ecological central planning should take a backseat.

 

My hats off to three Philippine energy companies that have big coal plants — Aboitiz Power, Meralco Power Gen (MGEN) and San Miguel Global Power. They may be demonized by climate-obsessed activists, but they are the ones that give us 24/7 electricity in this country and keep the investors here to continue creating jobs.

PhilStar 50, On Phl potential growth of 5-7% annually for 15 years

On Phl potential growth of 5-7% annually for 15 years

 

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star

July 17, 2025 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2025/07/17/2458454/phl-potential-growth-5-7-annually-15-years

 

Three beautiful business reports from The Philippine STAR have perked me up: ‘Philippines can grow 6.8 percent annually, become middle-class society by 2040’ (July 16), “BOI-approved manufacturing investments surge 165 percent in H1” (July 16) and “Projects with tax perks under CREATE hit P1.5 trillion” (July 14).

 

On the first report, the World Bank made an optimistic view that we can grow between 5.4 to 6.8 percent yearly until 2040 if productivity-enhancing measures are implemented.  Among these are: reform complex business permitting processes that reduce barriers to entry and promote more competition, expansion in energy, telecommunications and logistics capacity to reduce costs, and expand exports and global value chain participation.

 

Fair enough. These are practical recommendations and are implementable. Among the  sources of business bureaucracies are the local governments units (LGUs) as there are permits required from barangay to municipal/city to provincial.

 

National government infrastructure allocation should be revised to reward LGUs that have expanded their private investments by at least 10 percent yearly. This will hopefully propel LGUs to set aside their itch for bureaucracies to receive more infrastructure projects.

 

Related to GDP growth, three countries in the world have reported their second quarter (Q2) 2025 performance and they are all our neighbors. Vietnam has a whopping eight percent, from 7.2 percent in Q2 2024 and 6.9 percent in Q1 2025. China has 5.2 percent, from 4.2 percent in Q2 2024 and 5.4 percent in Q1 2025. And Singapore has 4.3 percent, from 3.4 percent in Q2 2024 and 3.9 percent in Q1 2025.

 

This implies two things. One, despite tariff uncertainties and trade realignment since last April when US President Donald Trump announced high tariff rates for many countries exporting to the US, Asian economies are doing good. Two, Asia has attained regional internal dynamism of its own and this is good for us. If Asians are still getting richer despite trade realignment, then we can export more to neighbors in the region, we can get more rich visitors and tourists from neighbors.

 

Contrast it in Europe, especially Germany and UK. Germany’s GDP growth over the past eight quarters (Q2 2023 to Q1 2025) is only between -0.3 percent to 0. Degrowth is very clear. The latest data on corporate bankruptcies shows rising trend: 1,250 companies in April 2022, 1,430 in April 2023, 1,910 in April 2024 and 2,130 in April 2025. It seems that Germany government is focused on save the planet, save Ukraine, save DEI, save illegal immigrants, but not save their economy.

 

Climate-obsessed UK has a declining electricity production: 81.3 terawatt-hours (TWH) in Q1 2016, 73.9 TWH in Q1 2019, 70 TWH in Q1 2022, and 66.5 TWH in Q1 2025. Reason is they are shutting down their dependable and cheaper coal plants, reducing their nuclear plants as they increase their wind-solar plants. Expensive electricity contributed to rising corporate bankruptcies: 1,870 companies in May 2022, 1,950 in May 2024, 2,240 in May 2025.

 

The country’s economic team should go back to London and Frankfurt, and possibly Paris, Rome and Amsterdam, entice the migrating companies there to consider the Philippines in doing business and have easier access to 700 million consumers in ASEAN alone.

 

The Philippines will report its Q2 2025 GDP growth on Aug. 7 or three weeks from now. Our recent performance are: 4.3 percent in Q2 2023, 6.5 percent in Q2 2024 and 5.4 percent in Q1 2025.

 

My own projection is around six percent growth in Q2 2025, for the following reasons. One, belated high spending in April to early May from the last elections. Two, low average inflation of only 1.4 percent in April-June 2025 vs 3.8 percent in April-June 2024; low inflation means higher consumer confidence and household spending is 74 percent of GDP. And three, good agriculture harvest as there were occasional rains even in supposedly hot-dry months of April-May.

 

The second and third reports in The Philippine Star are related. The Board of Investments (BOI)  has approved P26.63 billion worth of investments for 14 manufacturing projects in January-June 2025, higher than the P10.05 billion in January-June 2024.

 

The Fiscal Incentives Review Board (FIRB) has approved 1,500 projects with total investment capital of P1.49 trillion, priority activities with incentives under the Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises (CREATE) Law.

 

I congratulate the economic team, especially Budget Secretary Amenah Pangandaman, Finance Secretary Ralph Recto, Economics Secretary Arsenio Balisacan, for their steadfast navigation of the economy towards more liberalization and market-oriented policies. We just need to keep the growth momentum and not drop the ball.

 

Meanwhile, on the continuing changes in leadership under the Marcos Jr. administration, I am sad that Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) chairperson Monalisa Dimalanta has resigned. I have seen her conduct press conferences at the ERC, saw her being a speaker in many energy seminars and conferences, talked to her occasionally, she is an intelligent, articulate and hard-working official. We were together also in Toronto last year along with other government, corporate and local media people, nuclear trade mission to Canada.

 

But I am happy to see that Mr. Dave Gomez is the new Secretary of the Presidential Communications Office (PCO). The Philippines has the third fastest GDP growth in 2023 and 2024 out of top 50 largest economies in the world. The economic team are doing their respective communications work but somehow the pessimist and detractors still manage to paint our economy as badly managed. The new PCO Secretary having both local and international exposure in communications should be able to inform the public of overall economic improvement of the country.

BWorld 807, Assessment of the economy after three years of the Marcos Jr. administration

Assessment of the economy after three years of the Marcos Jr. administration

July 10, 2025 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2025/07/10/684207/assessment-of-the-economy-after-three-years-of-the-marcos-jr-administration/

 

On June 30, President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. finished his third year in office. How has the Philippine economy performed during his administration compared with major economies in the world given continuing economic and global uncertainties?

 

To help answer this question I used four metrics or indicators: GDP growth, inflation rate, unemployment rate, and Debt/GDP ratio, and these are the results:

 

1. The Philippines was the third fastest growing economy among the top 34 largest economies in the world in terms of GDP size (at least $900 billion in 2024), average growth from 2022 to 2024. And even if extended to the top 50 largest economies, the Philippines was still the third fastest growing next to India and Vietnam. Malaysia, Bangladesh and Indonesia are 4th to 6th, Turkey is 7th, China is 8th. Egypt and Iran are 9th and 10th but I did not include them and several others in the accompanying table for the purpose of brevity.

 

2. The Philippines had among the highest inflation rates in Asia in 2022 to 2023, but this have been redeemed by low inflation rates of 3.2% in 2024 and 1.8% in January to June this year. When compared with G7 members and other big European countries, our inflation was mild, even in 2022, as they saw rates of 6-9% for G7 and 8-72% for other big European nations (see Table 1).

 

3. The Philippines’ unemployment rate has been on the decline, from 5.4% in 2022 to 3.9% in May 2025, which is lower than India, China, and Indonesia. It is also lower than the G7 members except Japan, and lower than other big European nations. Our labor force participation rate (LFPR) was a high of 65.8% in May 2025. The LFPR is an indicator of people’s optimism or pessimism about the labor market. If people think that there are more jobs available, they go out to seek jobs and the LFPR goes up. If people think there are few jobs available, they postpone joining the labor force and instead pursue more studies, or “standby” temporarily, and the LFPR goes down.

 

4. The Philippines’ public Debt/GDP ratio remained at 57% from 2021 to 2024. Half of the Asian countries in the list have reduced their ratios while half have increased. Those with ratios lower than 57% in 2024 are Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam (see Table 2).

 

So the Philippine economy under the Marcos Jr. administration has clearly performed well in three of four indicators — higher growth, lower inflation, lower unemployment — and has been neutral in the Debt/GDP ratio. Meaning that in the last three years, more Filipinos have experienced a higher standard of living, more stable prices, and have had more jobs to choose from.

 

The President’s economic team — led by Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto, Economics Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan, and Budget Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman — has done their work well, regardless of what the pessimists and detractors claim.

 

In the next three years we should catch up when it comes to high growth with leaders Vietnam and India. Vietnam reported their second quarter (Q2) 2025 GDP and it is a whooping 8%, from an already high growth of 7.3% in Q2 2024 and 6.9% in Q1 2025.

 

PhilStar 49, Toughening out in life: The UP Narra dorm experience

Toughening out in life: The UP Narra dorm experience *

 

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS - Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star 

July 10, 2025 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2025/07/10/2456761/toughening-out-life-narra-dorm-experience

 

Last Sunday, July 6, I attended a reunion of former residents of UP Narra Residence Hall (Nareha) hosted by UP president Jijil Jimenez at the Executive House. Narra was the only all-boys dormitory in UP Diliman, the other dorms are co-ed or all-girls, and Jijil himself was a Narra resident in his undergrad days.

 

I stayed in Narra dorm from 1983-1985, my first batch of roommates were all engineering majors, all classmates from Philippine Science High School. When they graduated, my second batch of roommates were my friends from UP Sapul, political science and math majors.

 

Our room was near the famous “Lean Alejandro room,” just a few doors away. Intelligent, articulate and brave student leader Lean Alejandro and his roommates Sarge Colambo, Jojo Abinales and Alvin Batalla were kind people who would welcome gate crashers in their room so long as we knock first, then engage us in any discussion from politics to history,  economics, natural sciences, to Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings series.

 

Two of my engineering roommates were fratmen. When they have a rumble against another fraternity, my roommates asked me to allow their other brods to stay in our room as holding area. I saw plenty of weapons except guns – baseball bats, steel chains, lead pipes, chaku, small knives, etc. Around 15 boys in our room, they allowed me to see their armaments as compromise for my permission that they hold out in our room. I think none of those weapons were used because the next day, the rumble is over. Until the next semester rumble/s.

 

Most dormers were from the provinces, I am from Cadiz City, Negros Occidental where I took my high school. Far away from our parents and families, when our allowances are delayed or there were some emergency spending, the first thing to do is borrow money from roommates or other friends, or simply scrimp on food – eat food not at the canteen but at the lady selling street food outside the dorm on credit, to be paid few days or weeks later.

 

Last Sunday night, many former Narra residents came, mostly from the 90s and 80s. A number of personalities came including a provincial governor, corporate leaders, lawyers and other professionals. Lots of food, beer and whisky on the table, microphones ready for karaoke singing, no program. I said to Jijil that I can create a program spontaneously and he should be the first speaker to give a welcome message. He nodded.

 

I briefly introduced myself, not even my college and proceeded to call on Jijil, then representing residents from the 1970s Sarge Colambo, a former congressman sectoral representative in the 80s and now TESDA deputy director general. Another speaker I called representing the 80s residents was Peter “Pidro” Sing, a successful entrepreneur and PR guy, very “galante” when treating us his former Narra dormmates to nice food. Representing the residents in the 90s I called on Raj Palacios, now associate dean of UP College of Law but I chose him because he is the younger brother of our friend in the 80s, Earl Palacios.

 

Everyone enjoyed the speeches and sharing of experiences of all the speakers I mentioned. There was ample time as no one seemed interested to do karaoke singing, so I called everyone to speak, one minute each and it turned out to be another blockbuster sharing of funny and wild experiences in Narra.

 

Famous wood sculptor and architect, and fellow Narra resident in the 80s, Clifford Espinosa somehow summarized what most residents shared. Cliff said in Filipino, I translate into English:

 

“In Narra, residents created or adjusted to an environment of total discomfort, both internal and physical, our ego gave way to other residents’ observations and advise and we showed who we are. To survive, we were forced to accept the environment without judgment. To survive we did many things, some became soldiers, gays, shrewd, politicians, etc. We were trained in real life ahead.”

 

I agree, and I think the main lesson from our stay and socialization in Narra, it forced us to be more humble, to be more tough and not a softy cry baby. We developed a sub-culture of camaraderie within UP culture. For instance, many fratmen stayed in Narra and when their respective frats have a rumble, residents know the guys from the other frat and they avoid hitting each other. Rumbles and bitterness will soon end and they will see each other in dorm corridors, in the lobby and TV room.

 

One funny and wild issue during my time, there were many stray cats roaming the dorm especially at the canteen – one-eyed Jack, have skins peeled 1x1 square inch, sometimes 2x2 square inch. One time I saw a cat with peeled skin both sides, the neck tied to a bench and shivering. I let it go, it turned out that the cat was under observation by a vet med student. There was a short shouting match because other residents chimed in.

 

The Narra dorm council held a big meeting for residents just about the cats, the lobby was full of rowdy and lively residents. The “Colambo Commission” was formed and chaired by Sarge Colambo, suggestions by residents were funny and wild. Among the advisers then was UP Law faculty Raphael “Popo” Lotilla, recently DOE Secretary and now DENR Secretary. Sec Popo stayed in Narra from undergrad to law student to law faculty, he developed many friends from different colleges and different batches.

Four decades later, among my close friends from UP are my Narra dormmates. It was a beautiful, colorful and humbling experience.

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* Note: above photo not part of the original article in PhilStar, I only added here.

See also my previous story about the dorm,

https://funwithgovernment.blogspot.com/2013/06/weekend-fun-43-tales-from-narra-dorm-up.html (June 22, 2013)

BWorld 806, On hydropower and CBK’s privatization

On hydropower and CBK’s privatization

July 8, 2025 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2025/07/08/683682/on-hydropower-and-cbks-privatization/

 

The Philippines experiences plenty of flooding yearly. Our problem is we have too much water and thus floods, but we do not have enough dams, weirs, artificial lakes, and other water catchment and storage structures to take advantage and control all that water. In 2024, hydroelectricity contributed 11.1 terawatt-hours (TWh) or 8.6% of our total power generation.

 

Many Asian nations hydroelectricity generation is high, like China with 1,354 TWh, Vietnam with 89 TWh, Malaysia has 34 TWh, and Indonesia’s 26 TWh (see Table 1).

 

On June 10, the Energy department released the Notice of Award for Green Energy Auction 3 (GEA-3) for Pumped-Storage Hydropower (PSH) with a combined capacity of 6,100 megawatts (MW) in Luzon alone. The Energy Regulatory Board’s (ERC) recommended rates are high, up to the P5.36/kilowatt hours (kWh) of Olympia Violago Water and Power, Inc.’s Wawa PSH, and the P5.46/kWh of Ahunan Power, Inc.’s Pakil PSH.

 

Since these are for ancillary services (AS) only and not for baseload running 24/7, the rates are expensive.

 

Then last Friday, July 4, the Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corp. (PSALM) accepted bids for the privatization of the Caliraya-Botocan-Kalayaan (CBK) hydroelectric power plants, which produce 797 MW. The Aboitiz Power (AP)-led Thunder Consortium won with an offer of P36.27 billion, higher than PSALM’s reservation value of P32.6 billion, and much higher than the offer of the second bidder, the FirstGen-led FWKG Consortium, of P19.62 billion.

 

The AP-led consortium still must undergo the post-bidding and qualification process before CBK can be awarded to them by PSALM. Because of this deal with AP and its partners in the consortium, next year the Department of Finance (DoF) will have P36 billion in new revenue without raising any taxes. Such proceeds will be used to retire some stranded debt of the National Power Corp.

 

But there are questions, including why Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto’s earlier estimate of up to P50 billion was not reached. There were even insinuations made by the leftist and anti-capitalist group Bayan Muna that it was a “sweetheart deal” between AP and PSALM.

 

I think the main reason CBK did not get anything close to P50 billion is because GEA-3 technically downgraded it. The CBK plant is also used for PSH, and PSH is a crowded business with 6,100 MW already awarded at much higher rates than CBK’s roughly P2.80/kWh.

 

Among the uncertainties surrounding CBK are: first, while there is no pre-set tariff rate by ERC yet, GEA-3-awarded PSH have high guaranteed rates already; second, electricity prices at the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market are currently low, between P3-P4/kWh; third, the PSH field under GEA-3 is, as mentioned above, crowded; and, fourth, much will have to be spent to upgrade the old plants.

 

Mr. Recto’s estimates were made pre-GEA-3 while the PSALM reservation value of P32 billion was made post-GEA-3 and, hence, reflected new risks of the overcrowded PSH.

 

In short, PSALM and the DoF are still lucky to get P36 billion from AP and its partners. The anti-capitalist Bayan Muna is wrong to make any malicious insinuations.

 

PSALM is getting P8 billion a year from 2021-2025, or P40 billion over five years. I think this is meant to cover the debt of some electric cooperatives (ECs) in Mindanao that do not pay for the power they get from hydro plants operated by PSALM.

 

Many ECs are inefficient and wasteful; they stay afloat mainly because of the taxpayers’ subsidy to the National Electrification Administration (NEA) and it then sends the money to these inefficient ECs. Subsidies to the NEA came up to P5.65 billion in 2014, P6.28 billion in 2020, P4 billion last year, and P1.25 billion until May this year (see Table 2).

 

 

PSALM should privatize more hydro plants, especially in Mindanao, but many politicians and legislators there oppose this move. One way to convince them to agree would be to allocate to the island the interest payments avoided from NPC debt that otherwise would be borrowed. For instance, if the hydro plants in Mindanao would get, say, P200 billion, at an interest rate of 6.3% (government 10-year bonds), that comes up to P12.6 billion a year of avoided interest payments. This amount should be allocated as an additional budget for Mindanao.

Cambodia-Thailand war, and how it was quickly stopped

Brown people shooting each other for the last 5 days over a border dispute, some dead people both sides. Then another brown man interceded and shooting has stopped, at least temporarily. That is how to solve territory disputes bet and among neighbors, outsiders that are thousands of kms away and want to prolong the war should stay out.

Trump played a key role too, he threatened both TH and CM with high tariff if they don't stop shooting each other. Trump the pacifist, not the usual US leaders who are all war mongers.

TH and KH have a long dispute over their border. I think there is also border dispute between VN and KH. VN briefly invaded KH in the late 70s.

See also this article with many related links,

Thailand, Cambodia Agree To Ceasefire Following Trump's Diplomatic Pressure

Tyler Durden, JUL 28, 2025
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/thailand-cambodia-agree-ceasefire-following-trumps-diplomatic-pressure

BWorld 805, Expanding our GDP size and nuclear development

Expanding our GDP size and nuclear development

July 1, 2025 | 12:02 am

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2025/07/01/682295/expanding-our-gdp-size-and-nuclear-development/

 

Last week, on June 26, the Energy Institute (UK) released its annual Statistical Review of World Energy (SRWE) 2025. This has been among my favorite databases and sources of Excel files for many years.

 

So, I start by comparing the power generation of major economies with large gross domestic product (GDP) size at purchasing power parity (PPP) values, which comes from the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) 2025 database.

 

The top five largest economies in the world in GDP size in 2024 were also the top five in power generation. In GDP size, China is 1.3 times larger than the US, 5.8 times larger than Japan, 6.4 times larger than Germany, 8.9 times larger than the UK, and 27.9 larger than the Philippines.

 

China’s electricity production in 2024 was two times larger than the US, 10 times larger than Japan, 20 times larger than Germany, 35 times larger than the UK, and 78 times larger than the Philippines. One way to look at it is that our total power generation in one year is equivalent to only five days generation in China. Notice also the declining trend in power generation of Japan, Germany, and the UK (see Table 1).

 

This is clear proof that energy is development. A bigger energy supply sustains more economic activities and business expansion. That is why our main goal in energy policies should be the continued expansion of power generation, regardless of where the power comes from — thermal or renewable, fossil fuels or intermittent sources.

 

From 2017 to 2023, the average increase in Philippine power generation was 4,200 gigawatt-hours (GWh) a year while Vietnam’s was 13,650 GWh a year. But from 2023 to 2024, the Philippines increased its power generation by 10,000 GWh while Vietnam grew by 27,000 GWh. This is the highest increase in a year that the Philippines has attained, and it largely explains why the Philippines’ GDP size has jumped from an average of $70 billion a year from 2017 to 2023 to $104 billion from 2023 to 2024. We need to keep expanding our power generation plus the necessary modernization in power transmission, distribution, and supply infrastructure.

 

Along with this policy and the passage of the PhilAtom bill in both Houses of Congress, I saw one good report the other day: “CSP could be waived for first nuclear project” (BusinessWorld, June 29).

 

There are many countries in the world that continue to use nuclear energy for the production of electricity, along with industrial, agricultural, and healthcare applications. Four of the top 10 nations when it comes to nuclear generation are Asian nations.

 

While Germany shut down all its nuclear plants in 2024 and Taiwan did the same this year, other countries are ramping up their nuclear generation led by China, South Korea, India, Japan, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The latter has had the most surprising expansion of its nuclear power capability, from none at all until 2019 to 40,600 GWh in 2024 (see Table 2).

 

Countries whose power mix in 2024 included at least 10,000 GWh from nuclear energy were Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Belarus, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia. Other countries whose power mix included less than 8,000 GWh from nuclear generation in 2024 were Iran, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and South Africa.

 

Denuclearized and decarbonizing Germany has had a GDP performance of between -0.3% and zero over the past eight quarters (Q2 2023 to Q1 2025). Their expensive electricity — relying mainly on intermittent solar-wind plus costly battery — contributed to the trend towards degrowth and deindustrialization.

 

The Philippines’ shortest route to going nuclear is to refurbish and revive the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant — which can potentially produce 620 megawatts (MW) — and start its operation within four years. Otherwise, build new conventional nuclear plants of 600-1,200 MW. It would be better if both were done.

 

Meralco is the energy company that is most prepared to go nuclear. They have already sent Filipino scholars to study graduate-level nuclear engineering in at least five countries — the US, China, France, South Korea, and Japan, I think. Aboitiz Power has expressed early interest in going nuclear while San Miguel Global Power and Prime Energy, I think, have their own plans to go nuclear.

 

This could mean an abundant energy supply, stable and reliable running 24/7 at competitive prices even without taxpayers’ subsidy. We should go for this to help sustain our high GDP growth trajectory.