China Watch 16: Scarborough Shoal, Spratlys and Citizens Action

The territorial conflict in the West Philippine Sea (WPS) or the South China Sea (SCS) was exacerbated last week with the discovery of large-scale poaching of important marine resources by Chinese fishing boats off Scarborough Shoal, a small area just 124 nautical miles off Zambales province in the Philippines, and 500 nautical miles from Hainan island, the southernmost part of China. For a few days, there was a brief stand off between the respective boats of the Philippine Navy and Chinese Navy, then back to diplomatic discussions and negotiations.

The hawks among various sectors in the Philippines would use that incident as another reason to build up a "strong" fighting Philippine Navy and Air Force. Which means you and me must pay more taxes, both in the present and the future, to finance a large-scale modernization of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP).

Last Friday, April 27, 2012, interaksyon.com launched a new project, the "Online Onsite" where some of the news portals' columnists would speak on various issues and the discussions will be tweeted. Twitter followers, as well as some of the network's reporters and walk-in audience can ask questions and the resource speakers will answer them. The event was held at the Enterprise Center, Ayala Avenue, Makati City. I was assigned by the editors to speak on the Scarborough Shoal incident and the rest of the WPS/SCS issue. My powerpoint where I based my informal talk is posted here,
http://interaksyon.com/assets/documents/interaksyon_online_onsite.pdfinteraksyon.com

The first question that was raised was: "What is your main message on this issue?" I like that question because it's direct and point blank so I gave a direct and point blank answer: "Pursue diplomatic talks endlessly, do not take the military/war option." And why?

The maps above show that aside from questionable historical claims and military bullying, the China government really has very little or zero rationale in making its claim that the entire U-shape SCS area is its own territory. China is explicitly violating the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS) and the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) of other south-east Asian countries there. The China government therefore, is standing on a very week legal and diplomatic position, thus it shows military might. So the military option is a trap, a diversion, it moves the debate away from international diplomacy and multilateral negotiations into bargaining for US military support, into coercing taxpayers of respective countries to surrender more of their money, resources that they are supposed to spend for themselves and their households, to finance an expensive military adventure with zero or little chance of winning.

Below are two tables I showed, plus an estimate of how costly a military path would cost us. I thank a good friend, plane pilot and debater Sam Aherrera, for his ideas. So the verdict is very clear: a military and war path is an idiotic proposition that will impoverish us taxpayers and will benefit only a very few military and civilian rent seekers and their military suppliers.

But government is coercion, right? Even if the local rent-seekers and war freaks, like the China government, stand on very weak legal and fiscal grounds, it is possible that they might still prevail. So I offer a second option: finance their large-scale armament build up by privatizing the AFP HQ in Camp Aguinaldo right here in Metro Manila. Another is to privatize the sprawling campus of the PMA.

I also outlined the various non-war options, and the various international arena where the Philippine government can pursue endlessly its diplomatic offensive. The China communist government does not like internationalizing the issue and pursuing multilateral talks because it realizes its weak diplomatic position. It wants bilateral negotiations where it can easily divert the issue into military bullying or other rent-seeking schemes that can favor some local political, business and military elites.

My favorite example to say that the China government can be onion-skinned when it comes to international diplomacy, was the Nobel Peace Prize given to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo. Why should the China government get so upset, so angry, at the awarding of an international NGO like the Nobel Foundation? Nobel is not a government body, not a multilateral institution. What if Rotary International and other big international NGOs will also give various awards to known Chinese dissidents, the China government will do a political tantrum again?

Towards the end of the interview and twitter notes during the Online Onsite,
I said that we pursue the diplomatic, international discussion of the issue. The Philippine government should pursue existing formal avenues like the various UN fora (Security Council, General Assembly, ITLOS, ICJ) and regional bodies like APEC and the ASEAN.

And us private citizens, civil society organizations (CSOs), can initiate some activities like the planned international protest action in front of China Embassies in many countries around the world this coming May 11.

The China one-party, zero opposition communist government, does not know how to effectively deal with ordinary civilians and CSOs. We operate on a different plane. We in CSOs work on purely voluntary exchange and action while governments work on coercion.

So to reiterate my position on this issue:

1. Philippine government via the DFA should pursue international diplomacy and multilateral negotiations, endlessly.

2. Civil society and private citizens can launch various activities, no central plan, no central bureaucracy, to expose and shame not only the China government bullying but also the local military rent-seekers.

3. Do not entertain the military and war option. It is simply an idiotic path.
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See also:
China Watch 8: World's Largest Economies in 2010, August 16, 2010
China Watch 9: Liu Xiaobo, Human Rights and the NPA, December 10, 2010
China Watch 10: Is China Still a Communist Country?, December 21, 2010
China Watch 11: Big Brother and Inflationary Pressure, March 07, 2011
China Watch 12: The Spratlys and SCS Conflict, June 08, 2011
China Watch 13: More on the Spratlys/SCS Conflict, June 25, 2011
China Watch 14: More on the SCS/WPS Noise, July 11, 2011
China Watch 15: FTA, ASEAN and UNCLOS, August 01, 2011

Pilipinas Forum 19: The CPP-NPA, Sison and Maoism

This should be the longest exchanges in the "Pilipinas Forum" series in this blog so far. Yes, this is 32 pages long :-) These were posted in PF yahoogroups in August 2002 or nine years ago. There should be some lessons here for those studying the Philippine communist movement.

An earlier related paper will be  Pilipinas Forum 3: Is Marxism Still Relevant?, August 30, 2011. It's 11 pages long. Enjoy.
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I cautiously welcome the GMA decision to redeploy forces to fight against NPA cadres throughout the Philippines. While I fully support the fight against criminal elements and include among these any revolutionary group who resorts to armed violence against the public or the Government, I also hope that corresponding efforts will be made to protect the human rights of peaceful political opposition.

I continue to believe that economic development and respect for human rights is the best way to counter various guerilla groups. But, when any group resorts to violence in a democratic system I feel the full force of law should be applied against them. If this requires the support and direct involvement of the AFP and even funds provided bythe USA, then so be it. I would far prefer to see funds spend for economic and infrastructure development, but such expenditures also require a peaceful environment to do any good. If businesses are being extorted by NPA groups and infrastructure is being destroyed in the name of countering the 'oppression' of the people, the other improvements do little good.

I strongly believe in the right of self defense. While I understand that the members of the NPA, CCP, NDF and others feel that their revolutionary cause is a legitimate self defense against oppression, I believe the overall right of the people of a democratic society have a greater right to defend themselves from those forces who seek to impose their belief structure upon them by violence. If the CCP, NDF or even the Mickey Mouse Club for that matter, manage to go out and get themselves elected into a position of majority in a barangay, municipality, or province, then that is the will of the people and they have just cause to defend that. Short of that, however, the use of armed violence against the people's legitimately elected government is no different that criminality and that government elected by the people should treat it as such.

While I would prefer disputes to be settled peacefully, to tell the truth, I welcome Jose Ma. Maria Sison's call for the NPA to launch attacks. Let them come out in the open, let them show the common people how they are 'defending' them against oppression by cutting off their electricity and by destroying the infrastructure that has been built by their hard earned tax money. Hopefully when they come out into the light of day and show clearly who they are and what they believe they can be dealt with effectively once and for all.

I have no disagreement with legitimate opposition to the existing government, hey, I probably even agree with a lot of their charges of corruption and waste of the people's resources. But, let that opposition be heard through the electoral process. Let that opposition be felt through the right to vote. As soon as one group decides to let their opposition be expressed by armed violence they have left the side of legitimacy and have no right to decry the acts of society to defend themselves.

–Cynthia Diaz

Cynthia, I do agree with you. Sison and his brood (not only armed communist rebels) are out of mind and touch of time. I also believe that force have to be met with force, but calibrated and selective of targets because of the Bill of Rights.

However, the real enemy is within, within the mainstream. These are those who give a bad name to democracy, freedom of enterpise -- businessmen retaining a feudal state of mind towards their employees; those at home who mistreat their household help, corrupt gov't officials, demo-crazy protesters, politicking clergy, greedy and power hungry politicians, indifferent citizenry, flying voters, ....

–Roy Picart

The CPP-NPA thinks they hold the solution to the country's problems. Yet, they are the biggest obstacle to progress. Sison's call for the destruction of public utilities-which as Cynthia mentioned are built with the Pinoy's pawis-at-dugo-is a clear sign that their real target is the country's progress, however small they claim these to be. Kapirangot na nga lang-sisirain pa nila! Who do they think will pay to rebuild all these again?!! Certainly not Sison! The fail ure of Filipinos to achieve progress under the current system is the NPA's success.

Bayan Muna's "New Vietnam" scare is ridiculous. In the first place, the existence of the NPA is the cause of the very arrangement they are opposing. The NPA-and the armed violence they have continually brought society-is the root problem, then (maybe) the Americans. Before the American issue was even raised had they condemned the NPA's first (along with other terrorist groups) then maybe we won't ever need American "meddling".

Why do we need communism? Capitalism, though far from perfect, has evolved considerably from the 18th century capitalism of the industrial revolution. Even in the very countries that have adopted and spread communism, the ideology has proven to be more oppressive than capitalism. In so many years, it did not make the lives of their people better if not make them even worse. Now, China is relying on capitalism to compete in the global economy (ex., state-ownership of industries is being replaced by IPOs). As neo-capitalists, they may yet become the biggest threat to the Filipino worker and farmer... perhaps even more than the Americans ever did.

–Gilbert Cunanan

Pilipinas Forum 13: On Zero or Minimal Government

These are the exchanges in pilipinasforum yahoogroups in the middle of October 2001 or 10 years ago. Enjoy the 11-pages long exchanges and debates. The pictures and cartoons, I just added them here. Cheers.
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May I ask this question: "What the origin of zero government?"

"State of nature", according to social contract theoreticians Hobbes, Locke and Rousseau.

"Primitive communal" mode of production, according to Karl Marx.

"Invisible hand/perfectly competitive market", according to classical economists like Adam Smith.

"Invisible nature", according to Nonoy Oplas. he he he.

-- Nonoy Oplas

Noy, am interested on zero government. Sat down a few weeks ago with some friends on a single issue: getting rid of government and replacing it with the "market" as a mechanism to provide the social services which many governments, particularly in developing countries, have been remiss with.

One fellow argued eloquently how everything can be privatized: armed forces and defense, education, health, foreign affairs, infrastructure . . .

He argued that in the case of the Philippines, he does not agree with the passage of the 1987 constitution but he it is imposed upon him anyway. He queries if one did not vote, his dissent is ignored. and the budget deficit of the government is imposed upon him.

Inflation, which he describes as the worst kind of taxation is the fault of government. in the private sector, if you make wrong business decisions and the business collapse, you pay for it. but the government despite all its horrible acts does not pay for its mistakes.

I must admit i agree with him. but i argued that because of the political economy we have, the "market" is the first thing we have to establish, while contending with the powerful political forces and interests. unless we recognize the dynamics of forces present, we will get trampled by them. I added that his idea will only work if:

1. there is a limited universe of participants to the market bounded by some common parameters, e.g. all bettors in a cockpit locked inside

2. the market is more or less homogenous, e.g. again all of them sabungeros (cockfight gamblers).

3. penalties are stiff, e.g. you don't want to not pay your bet in the cockpit arena

then we will all have to be sabungeros.

who took the cookie from the cookie jar,

-- Harlequin

I have just survived two days in the pig pen we call the House of Representatives and listened to Congressmen heckle us while they look here, there in the budget for where they can find their swill (CDF). Talk about black holes and nothingness. Looking at them strut and preem reminds of the need for a big bang to shake these pools of primordial soup into some higher life form. They shall pay for making me miss Ally Mcbeal and ER and Survivor 3! Fortunately, I am home in time for Star Trek Voyager on the Hallmark Channel.

I find it amusing that these sanctimonious cretins (are they eligible to be called life forms?) talk about issues like the world depression and the deficit and all they want to know is where is their money??

What is the rationale for these posts? You want to find the origin of zero - of nothingness? Look no farther than there in the House of Representatives. Unfortunately, these black holes are supposed to be the representation of the sovereign will and wisdom(????) of the people.

-- Ricky Sunico

Pilipinas Forum 8: On the Abu Sayyaf

(This is what I submitted to inq7.net on June 20, 2001, Pilipinas Forum's column.)

Exchanges on the Abu Sayyaf, 2001

Yes, my family and I were there. Yes, we were in the island resort when these 24 armed men docked at the main pier around 5:00 am today (May 27) in their tri-engined Volvo-Penta powered "kumpit". We were in the island resort when they forced open the bay cottages and took hostage 20 guests, 4 of the island resort's staff, and loaded the hostages on to their "kumpit". We were on the island resort when the kidnappers decided that these hostages were enough (Thank God!) and would slow down their "kumpit". We were THAT CLOSE to becoming kidnap victims and maybe just another lousy statistic.

Lawlessness. Wanton, brazen & audacious. It is real and it never sleeps. Think about that if only for a moment.

-Sam Aherrera

There are lawless elements in the society that are beyond hope and rehabilitation. The negative impact imposed by the kidnappers/bandits to ordinary citizens goes beyond the pecuniary and psychic costs. There's also the societal cost in terms of drop in tourist arrivals (a deathknell to the tourism industry actually) and lower foreign investments.

It should be noted, as an afterthought to the discussions on the poverty issue, that providing pro-poor programs, infra. sevices, etc. are necessary but not the sufficient conditions needed to spur the country's growth. Peace and order is the precondition to all of these growth strategies/programs. That means we should get rid of all these penguins, jokers, riddlers, luthors, banes, etc. Let the terrible swift sword of dark justice fall upon them!

-Glenn de Guzman

Pursue those *ssholes and shoot them. I don't believe in coddling them, not with 6-month extended negotiations, not with libyan ransom money (could have been money laundering for all we know, definitely was pabango money, at the very least), not with ceasefire policies. No more. These bullies should learn that hostage taking does not pay. Feel very very sorry for the victims and really I wouldn't know what to do if i were in their or their families' shoes. They deserve to be rescued, and safe and sound in their own homes. now, more then ever, i wish that those rambo-like characters were true to life and that they could go in to the bad guys' lair and blow their brains off and still manage tosave each and every one of the victims with minimal damage. sigh!

-Mayeen Magno

This kidnap for ransom business is becoming lucrative for these bandits. Thanks to ransom money paid for previous kidnappings, they now have the "capital" to launch long range operations. I just heard reports the Volvo-powered kumpits are almost twice as fast as our Navy vessels in the area. I hope this doesn't send the wrong signals to other armed groups that there is money in this exercise.

I just hope we in the forum are 100% united that these people hold no ideological pursuits whatsoever. I believe they are in fact destroying the reputation of Muslim Filipinos to the rest of the world. I wonder what the common sentiment is, including those of Muslim communities. This is important if we are to gain support of civilians to find the culprits. They may easily find coddlers if some people still believe in their false cause.

-GiLBerT Cunanan

Pilipinas Forum 7: 12th anniversary

Pilipinasforum@yahoogroups.com turned 12 years old today.

Me and a friend from UP Sapul, Monching Romano, formed it. It started with just a handful of our friends, probably 30 or 40. When the discussion group was formed, words spread out of the dynamic forum, and soon the membership expanded to 300+. Some of the articulate ideologues from the left to the far right mixed up to debate on many topics.

Here's the message history as of today. The heaviest postings and debates were in 2001. That's where Edsa 2 and Edsa 3 happened. There were many other threads that sparked heavy debates, sometimes 60+ postings per day. There were fireworks everyday including weekends for many months.

In April 21 or 22, 2001, a new friend then who enjoyed the debates so much, Sam Aherrera, invited the group for a get together in his house. I think it was the first big get together of PF then.

In one of those passionate discussions: seated, from left: Monching Romano, Bob Herrera-Lim, Erick Planta, Ozone Azanza. Standing were Victoria Suarez and Kori Coronel. There was no facebook then, not even friendster. Yahoogroups was the most popular discussion platform then, at least in the Philippines.

A mix up of discussions, the attitude lifted from the endless exchanges online.

Sam, pointing, and wife Nabie, were the generous hosts that night. One of the articulate debaters then was Lourdes Gordolan, here walking.

Fermin Taruc (shaved head), Mayeen Magno, Gina L, Nap Imperial.
Photos from Eric Tiongks, posted in the PF Files section. Thanks Eric.

The group picture before the great goodbye for the night.

Twelve years on, many PF members and debates have new or different lives. People have changed jobs, have new careers, some have already expired and departed, others have permanently migrated abroad, etc. PF still exists until today, but no longer the same dynamic group. Well, there are many other discussion outlets now -- googlegroups, facebook, blogs, websites, etc.

To friends who gave PF such a wonderful history, SUPER-SUPER THANK YOU. Hope that our lives and friendship will cross path again.