Population Control 15: Debate, Debate, on the RH Bill

The pro-Reproductive Health (RH) bill camp has issued a public challenge today, nice press release, see below. One of my friends in facebook,, Louie Montemar, posted it in his wall. I replied with the following points.

I want to join the debate. Here are my questions:

1. Condoms lang, we need legislation pa?

2. Asking the OB professionals to render services to the poor for free, we need coercion and legislation pa?
3. DOH will spend P2.5 B for various RH services in its 2013 budget, so it is being done already even without new legislation, why do we need more coercion and more legislation?

4. There is an impending big typhoon coming to the country by tomorrow, to hit Mindanao and the Visayas  There is no "Solidarity during flooding bill" or law, and yet people are helping their fellowmen on their own even without coercion and legislation, so why more coercion and legislation?

5. With about P300 B per year budget deficit (expenditures larger than revenues), this is not enough. Govt must over-spend further, over-borrow further with new programs like cash transfer for the poor and condoms for the poor, while maintaining old programs?

As I argued before, I believe that this bill will become a law soon. There are just too many academics, media people, NGO leaders, etc. who are pushing for government expansion in population issue. 

Then people will realize later, "Ayy, kulang pa pala ang RH law, poverty persists pa rin, kaya beyond education & healthcare for the poor, housing and credit for the poor, train subsidy and tractors for the poor, cash transfer and condoms for the poor, we need iPad and samsung Tab for the poor pa pala. Add also cars and yacht for the poor." 

Their bottom line actually, is jut to keep expanding government, keep expanding taxes and fees.

Then one of the statement signatories, Dr. Antonio "Tonton" Contreras of DLSU Political Science Department, invited me to join the debate. I immediately said Yes. I told them that they cannot expect me to argue the Church position because I have zero sympathy with their argument. He said their position does not mention the church position as well. That's good.   Let us make the church position irrelevant in this debate. 

I also suggested that they reformulate some points into questions that are answerable by Yes or No, so that a black and white position can clearly be established. Fori nstance, one question will be:

Do we need new legislation for all these RH services and arguments? Why or why not?

I also asked them who are those anti-RH debaters they have tangled with in the past, but were cowards to share their presentation publicly. I think these are lousy debaters and I despise cowards. If people should debate publicly, they should open up their data and arguments to public scrutiny.

On another note, I attended last week the two-days Federation of ASEAN Economic Associations (FAEA) 37th annual conference at the PICC. In a keynote address, Dr. Charles Horioka of Osaka University presented a paper, “The Determinants and Long-Term Projections of Savings Rate in Developing Asia”. Their economic regression showed that domestic saving rates in developing Asia are determined primarily by the age structure of the population (negative effect, especially the aged dependency ratio),  the level of per capita GDP (positive effect), and the degree of financial sector development (also positive effect). 

So, having a less-ageing population is positive news as there are more young people who can produce more wealth – as entrepreneurs, as workers, as traders – and support the young and the aged section of the total population. This table below is interesting.

Source: Charles Horioka and Akiko Hagiwara, The Determinants and Long-Term Projections of Savings Rate in Developing Asia, presented at the 37^th FAEA Annual Conference, 28 November 2012, PICC, Manila.

During the open forum, I spoke and commented that with savings rate in Asia  ranging from 10 to about 50 percent of GDP, these are still savings whereas almost all governments in Asia (and elsewhere) have dissavings with their high public debt. In effect, private savings have compensated for government dissavings and fiscal irresponsibility and over-borrowing, resulting in a positive net savings. Dr. Horioka agreed with my observation.

Fat-Free Econ 32: GDP Growth, Stockmarket and Rule of Law

This is my article yesterday in TV5's news portal,
http://www.interaksyon.com/business/49318/fat-free-economics--fearless-forecast-up-to-7-percent-growth-for-philippine-economy-in-4q
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The Philippines’ high third-quarter growth in its gross domestic product (GDP) is good news. In the six major economies within Asean, the Philippines with 7.1 percent trumped Indonesia, which grew 6.2 percent; Malaysia, 5.2 percent; Vietnam, 4.7 percent; Thailand, 3 percent; and Singapore, 0.3 percent. 

The question is, will this be sustained at least over the short run? Before answering this, let’s look at the sectoral composition of GDP to get an idea of their relative weights over the past several quarters.

The share of the agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing (AHFF) sector continues to shrink, with only 10 percent of GDP. The industry (IND) sector also follows this trend but at a slower pace than AHFF. The manufacturing (MAN) sub-sector accounts for slightly higher than one-fifth of GDP.

It is the service sector (SER), particularly the trade and repair of various goods (TR) that continues to dominate the local economy. This implies that high growth in services, which constitute 58 percent of GDP, would mean faster overall GDP growth, even if there is slow growth in agriculture and industry.

Table 1 details the sectoral and sub-sectoral composition of GDP, where AF stands for the agriculture and forestry sub-sector; F, fishing; MQ, mining and quarrying; CNS, construction; EGWS, electricity, gas and water supply; TSC, transport, storage and communication; FI, financial intermediation; RERBA, real estate, renting and business activities; PAD, public administration and defense; and OS, other services.

Source of basic data: National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB).

Table 2 details growth by sector and sub-sector of the Philippine economy this year. Note the consistent drop in the share of fishing as well as of mining and quarrying this year.

The series of heavy flooding experienced in many provinces this year that damaged many aquaculture farms must have contributed to the shrinking in the fishery sub-sector. While the uncertainties in the mining sector, first with the major attacks by NPA rebels of several big mining companies in Mindanao, then the uncertainty over government policies contributed to the shrinking of this sub-sector.

On a positive note, there was a huge jump in construction activities in the second and third quarters of the year, which significantly pulled up growth in the industry sector from 5.5 percent in the second quarter to 8.1 percent in the third quarter.

The consistent growth in the service sector plus its relative weight in the overall GDP is the main explanation why third-quarter GDP growth was high. Take note that the growth in all sub-sectors, except in public administration and defense, was consistent.

With this development, any fear of “boom and bust” in the short term is unwarranted. It is more of a modest boom at least in the next few quarters. The notable growth in the stock market points to a possibility that a 6-7 percent growth in the fourth quarter this year is in the cards.

Table 3. Stockmarket Growth in Asia, 2012

Source: Hans B. Sicat, The Philippines Stock Exchange Inc.: Regional Integration of Financial and Capital Markets in the ASEAN as presented at the 37th FAEA Annual Conference, November 29, 2012 held in PICC, Manila.

Things appear to be bright and sunny in the Philippine economy, at least in the short term. There are external factors that contributed to this development, particularly the high uncertainty in the business environment in both Europe and the US as a result of their huge public debt burden, resulting in some investors fleeing those markets, and putting their money in the Philippine economy.

Certain internal reforms towards promulgating the rule of law, more protection of private property rights, and a credible justice system should be continued and sustained so the Philippines can secure its future.

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See also:
Fat-Free Econ 28: Poverty, Planning and Populism, October 29, 2012
Fat-Free Econ 29: Anti-capitalism, Fanaticism and the Poor, November 13, 2012
Fat-Free Econ 30: BPOs and Obama, November 14, 2012

Fat-Free Econ 31: On the Kasambahay, Solo Parents Welfare Bills, November 26, 2012