Energy 102, Germany's CDU/CSU and FDP rejecting the Greens' anti-coal agenda

I like the development in the new German government. #1 CDU getting closer with #4 FDP (Free Democratic Party) in climate and energy policies while potential partner #5 Greens go more idiotic and watermelon-ic (green outside, red inside) in demanding zero coal power. The Greens have more commonality with #2 SDP and #6 Linke (commies). CDU is correct -- if they follow the Greens for the sake of coalition-majority, #3 AfD will greatly benefit and further expand as AfD is explicitly anti-renewables alarmism and cronyism. Germany having 3rd highest electricity prices in the world might move to 2nd or 1st if the Greens-SDP agenda will prevail.

https://www.thegwpf.com/climate-policy-threatens-to-crash-german-coalition-negotiations/

“If coal plants are closed down in Eastern Germany and thousands of workers are made redundant, very soon 30% of voters will support the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD),” Laschet warned. ... Prime Minister Laschet announced that he would not make substantial concessions: “If push comes to shove we will have to crash the talks.” He said that environmental policy was a bigger hurdle for the negotiations than immigration policy: “The latter is easier to settle than the closure of power stations.”

(translated to English by The GWPF)

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/jamaika-sondierungen-armin-laschet-droht-mit-scheitern-der-gespraeche-a-1174776.html

"Kellner reiterated the Greens’ position that Germany should quickly close coal-fired power stations to help fight climate change, a position resisted by the other parties." 
October 26, 2017.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics/german-coalition-talks-stumble-on-migration-climate-idUSKBN1CV1FZ

"While all parties agreed in principle this week that they want to uphold the Paris climate accord, the FDP is pressing for a commitment to curb government measures to promote renewable energy, which help make German power prices the second-highest in the European Union after Denmark’s.

“We certainly have to reduce carbon dioxide,” the FDP’s Suding said. “In Germany, this is much more expensive than in other countries and we have to find a way to reduce CO2 emissions more cheaply. Of course, there won’t be a complete phase-out of coal by 2030.”

October 27, 2017.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-27/coal-standoff-hinders-merkel-s-push-for-next-german-government

"According to Lindner (FDP):

The project of the century Energiewende [transition to green energies] has failed. None of the agreed targets will be reached. Climate protection is stalled, energy prices are rising and they are burdening us as electricity consumers, just as they are the industry and middle class. And not least of all it is becoming increasingly difficult to guarantee a secure power supply during the winter months.” 
http://notrickszone.com/2017/09/29/germanys-green-energy-project-close-to-death-eeg-feed-in-act-has-failed-has-to-go/#sthash.ZAheNnnr.RsV59Dyz.dpbs

It is good that both CDU/CSU and FDP are jointly resisting the deindustrialization goal of the Greens. One reason why AfD rocketed high to nearly 13% of the votes despite being created only 4 years ago is on the energy mini-suicide of the watermelon groups.
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See also:

Energy 99, Germany's FDP questioning or ditching Energiewende, October 04, 2017 

Energy 100, Bjorn Lomborg on World energy mix, October 19, 2017 

Energy 101, Disinformation and fake stories by the watermelon movement, October 22, 2017

Energy 99, Germany's FDP questioning or ditching Energiewende

I like this man, head of German liberals Free Democratic Party (FDP), Christian Lindner. The man mainly responsible for the FDP resurgence in the German Bundestag elections last September 24.

"The project of the century Energiewende [transition to green energies] has failed. None of the agreed targets will be reached. Climate protection is stalled, energy prices are rising and they are burdening us as electricity consumers, just as they are the industry and middle class. And not least of all it is becoming increasingly difficult to guarantee a secure power supply during the winter months.” -- Christian Lindner.

Source: No Tricks Zone, Germany’s Green Energy Project Close To Death: “EEG Feed-In Act Has Failed …Has To Go!” (29 September 2017)

Merkel's CDU/CSU needs an ally to retain the majority. Almost impossible to ally with 3rd place AfD, 2nd place SPD already broke up with them. Merkel definitely needs 4th place FDP and very likely 5th place Greens but the FDP and Greens are now poles apart in energy policy. The latter wants Germany's expensive, unstable energy to become even more expensive, even more unstable because of their kill-coal, subsidize-endlessly-wind+solar policies.

Here's a possible opposition Watermelon (green outside, red inside) coalition:  SPD + Greens + Linke. All of them have the same hatred of fossil fuels, they just differ on the degree of their hatred, and all of them are users of fossil fuels -- in electricity, cars/inland mobility, planes and long distance trips.

I think Mr. Lindner is now asserting the liberal position of market competition, less government intervention. In particular, energy competition. Focus on price and power stability, a very important factor for industrial Germany producing world-class cars, robots, monster machines, etc. Energiewende is killing energy competition. Only wind + solar + biomass, hydro, others should be prioritized by govt energy central planning. The rest -- coal, nuke, gas -- decimate if not kill them. FDP now under Lindner is reasserting the classical liberal, freedom-oriented public policies.

FDP leadership is right and correct in moving into energy realism and competition and away from watermelon movement and energy leftism-cronyism.

A German friend noted that "there are contractual and legal obligations to be honored and rule of law in place. Dismantling the energy turnaround can only be a step by step process if the government wants to avoid massive amounts of litigation, much of which will be successful. this is the most problematical aspect of the turnaround: its partial irreversibility."

Good points, and its good that the FDP will try to stop these economic and energy lunacy of glorifying expensive, intermittent, unstable energy sources in an energy-intensive industralized econ like Germany.

Also the reason why Trump is leaving the Paris agreement, to help avoid possible multi trillion $ lawsuits from crony renewables, crony Tesla and related industries and firms.

Other related recent papers from NTZ:

Germany’s Energiewende “An Economic, Social and Ecological Disaster”, Writes Top German Socialist! 19 May 2017

Leading German Economics Professor Calls Germany’s Energiewende An Energy Policy Calamity

3 October 2017

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See also:

Energy 96, ACEF 2017 at ADB, panel on private sector in renewables, June 09, 2017 

Energy 97, Solar can replace coal power in the PH? July 03, 2017

Energy 98, Wind-lover S. Australia has highest electricity rates in the world, August 14, 2017 

Germany moving more to the right is good, September 30, 2017

Germany moving more to the right is good

Last Sunday night, September 24, I joined Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom (FNF) officials and other friends in watching WAHL2017 live on tv, Germany's Bundestag/Parliamentary elections, at the German Club in Makati City. The event was jointly organized by the four German political foundations in Manila -- Konrad Adenauer (KAF, affiliated with CDU), Hans Seidell (HSF, also affiliated with CDU/CSU), Friedrich Ebertt (FES, affiliated with SPD), and FNF (affiliated with FDP).

Hours before the official start of elections in Germany, this was among the forecasted results.

http://notrickszone.com/2017/09/24/germany-expected-to-shift-to-the-right-in-todays-national-elections-green-energies-to-take-back-seat/#sthash.gT1rlwGa.dpbs

Actual results were:

CDU/CSU center right – 33.0%

SPD socialist – 20.5

Left – 9.1

FDP free democrats – 10.7

Greens – 8.9

AfD hard right – 12.6

Others– 5.0

No Tricks Zone blog owner Pierre Gosselin wrote,

"The big winners are the business-friendly libertarian FDP Free Democrats and the right wing AfD.... The shift to the right means that the brakes are likely going to be put on the Energiewende and on efforts “to rescue the climate”. FDP leader Christian Lindner has been a vocal opponent to onshore wind park approvals in rural areas and forests and has also been critical of the subsidies paid out to green energies... The Greens have said they will accept being a coalition partner only if the CDU agrees to end coal power by 2030, a condition that hopefully the FDP will refuse."

-- http://notrickszone.com/2017/09/24/germany-shifts-to-the-right-may-mean-significant-slowdown-for-countrys-green-energies/#sthash.nXusXhTS.OkUEKNpC.dpbs

This is from The Economist, September 25:

"the “Germany for optimists” is the more accurate. The election result is unsettling on several fronts, deeply so where the AfD is concerned. But much of Germany’s pre-election tranquility was illusory anyway. The anger had been building for years; the AfD’s success has just brought it to the surface, where perhaps it can even be understood and addressed. Questions that were going unanswered, tensions that were going unconfronted, now brook no oversight."

FDP and AfD as net gainers, the latter especially (first joined the elections just 4 years ago and got 4.8%, this year got 12.6%). FDP is pro-business, pro-liberalization, pro-energy realism. AfD is wild right and definitely anti-left. Germany is indeed moving right, which is the right thing to do. The lefties -- SPD, Greens, Linke/left -- are transitioning towards becoming marginal parties in the near future.

Thanks to Wolfgang Heinze, FNF PH Country Director for inviting me that night. He's speaking here, introducing FNF and its main advocacies and activities in the Philippines.

 I enjoyed German sausage, other food, plus beer that night. Thanks again to FNF for the invite.

Lecture on Liberalism, German Politics and the FNF

This coming Tuesday, May 06, our club and the RC of Makati Pio del Pilar will have a joint meeting with a distinguished speaker, the Country Director of the FNF, and a former Member of the European Parliament (MEP), Jules Maaten.

There is good feedback about this "interesting topic" and hence, we hope many people, rotarians and non-rotarians, will come and listen to Jules.

A short background. All political foundations (Friedrich Naumann Foundation/FNF, Friedrich Ebert Foundation/FEF, Konrad Adenauer Foundation/KAF, Hans Seidel Foundation/HSF,...) are affiliated with German political parties. FNF is affiliated with the Free Democratic Party (FDP, liberals and democrats); FEF is affiliated with the social democrats and socialists; KAF is affiliated with the Christian Democrats, the party in power by Angela Merkel, and so on.

These political foundations get their funding from their political party affiliation in Germany. Thus, the bigger the votes achieved by the political party, the bigger is the funding of their political foundation. That makes KAF having lots of money.

The goal of those pol. foundations is to conduct political education worldwide related to their respective political philosophy. Thus, FNF is promoting liberalism and free market, FEF is promoting welfarism and implicit socialism.

German politics is important because Germany is the biggest economy in Europe. Thus, policies by the ruling party or coalition largely determine the direction of the German economy and foreign policy. Like how to deal with the public debt crisis of Portugal-Ireland-Greece-Spain (PIGS), the future of the Euro currency, the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and so on.

As usual, no registration fee, people will just pay for their own meals and drinks. Hope to see you there, Manila-based readers. Thanks.

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See also:

German Elections 2013: Big Defeat for the FDP, September 23, 2013

Pol. Ideology 51: Liberalism is Not Welfarism, September 17, 2013

Pol. Ideology 52: What is the Main Purpose of Government?, October 29, 2013 

EFN Asia 35: Rainer Adam and Economic Freedom in Asia, March 11, 2014

German Elections 2013: Big Defeat for the FDP

Last night, I joined some friends and staff of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom (FNF) in a WahlParty, watching the German elections live, at the German Club in Makati.

Big defeat for the German liberals, the Free Democratic Party (FDP). A brief analysis of the party defeat from a good German liberal thinker and my former teacher/facilitator at an IAF Seminar in Gummersbach in 2008, Arno Keller below. Posted in German, translated by Bing:

1. The world has not gone under.
2. Liberal values have lost none of their importance.
3. A political party could use Germany. After self-proclaimed "radical Liberals" and apparent liberal opportunists have systematically destroyed the Liberal core of the FDP, the debate on values in the FDP must run new, so that she can once again assume the role of a Liberal Party. Yes, and then also the FDP should recognize that systematic strategy development can actually help.

Chito Gascon was also there last night. His brief analysis:

results from elections in germany are coming in, and it appears to be historic in some key aspects... the conservatives gained more votes and will most certainly return her to the position of chancellor well on the way to being the longest serving woman leader of a major european country... AND, perhaps for the first time since after world war 2, the liberals who have thus far served in government longest as junior partner alternating with either the social democrats or conservatives, may (should the trend be validated) be finding themselves totally out of parliament... by far their worst result ever with them losing 2/3rds of their support compared from the last elections... time for some soul-searching, i hope they are able to bounce back... in the meantime, the conservatives will have a coalition partnership either with the social democrats or the greens or both these parties... the liberal voice will be missed in parliament this governing cycle...i applaud the democratic process... the people have spoken!

A disaster for the FDP yesterday, first time since WW2 and the party founding that they are out of the National Parliament, not a single seat, for failing to get the minimum 5 percent of the votes, they got only 4.8 percent.

Result of the exit poll is almost identical with the actual result. Photo from Spiegel International.

Wikipedia (accessed today) described the party 

The FDP, which strongly supports human rights, civil liberties, and internationalism, has shifted from the centre to the centre-right over time. Since the 1980s, the party has firmly pushed economic liberalism, and has aligned itself closely to the promotion of free markets and privatisation.

And here's a summary of its electoral performance, from its best-ever 2009 achievement to its worst result yesterday. Data from wiki.

It will be a big soul searching for the FDP and the European liberals. Should they push for more explicit free market policies? A Filipino friend and fellow IAF alumni in Gummersbach, Kareen Oloroso, mentioned last night that many Germans were angry at the liberal /FDP Foreign Minister's plan to cut German foreign aid. 

I agree with Arno's analysis above. Liberalism as a philosophy to advance individual freedom and limit the State's coercive power has not lost its value. German liberals in the government made something wrong that turned off many of their supporters.

Meanwhile, a surprising performance by the Alternative for Germany (AfD), an anti-Euro, back to Deutschhmark, other protest party. Formed only in February this year, they got 4.9% of the votes. It is possible that many previous votes for the FDP went to AfD.

While climate alarmist Greens Party was also among the losers, though not as bad as the FDP

http://notrickszone.com/2013/09/22/germanys-green-party-takes-a-beating-in-national-elections-climate-fear-no-longer-issues/
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Update: I like these postings by two FNF guys:

From Jules Maaten:

A bitter election result for the German liberals. Yet if the party gives itself a couple of weeks to mourn, and doesn't engage in pointless wars-on-a-square-millimeter or in I-told-you-so intellectualism, there is plenty of modern liberal thinking power, competence and commitment to bounce back convincingly. Simply pull up your sleeves and get going. That will be so good for Germany and for international liberalism.

From Bjoern Wyrembek:

Time to go to work. Time to make it better. Time to stand for freedom, for equal opportunities, for tolerance, for rule of law, against corruption, for property rights, for personal responsibility and markets that are open to everyone. Time to prove that these core values will create a better society, are standing for development and better living conditions and secure what we achieve. We just got a public demand note to get rid of much dead weight. So let's do it and move on. Time to go to work.

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See also: 

IAF Seminar 2008, Gummersbach, Germany, January 21, 2011

The German Club, Makati, September 23, 2013