Wednesday, November 06, 2019

BWorld 380, Prosperity and demography in Asia

* My article in BusinessWorld last October 24, 2019.


“The man of system… is apt to be very wise in his own conceit; and is often so enamoured with the supposed beauty of his own ideal plan of government, that he cannot suffer the smallest deviation from any part of it.”

— Adam Smith,
Theory of Moral Sentiments (1759), Part VI, Section II, Chap. II.

SINGAPORE — I came here to be one of the speakers in a forum on “Intellectual Property Rights and Economic Growth” organized by the Adam Smith Center, a new independent think tank headed by a young and dynamic leader Bryan Cheang. The event was held at the Singapore Management University (SMU) School of Law.

In my presentation on “Importance of Brands and Government Policy,” I used that quote from Adam Smith, the father of market economics, to highlight the fact that too much central planning and over-reaching regulations and prohibitions by governments are wrong, that they invite the law of unintended consequences.

The other speakers in the forum were Lorenzo Montanari of the Property Rights Alliance (PRA), Dr. Sary Levy-Carciente, author of the International Property Rights Index (IPRI) 2019, and Dr. Linda Low of the Singapore University of Social Sciences (SUSS) School of Business. Dr. Chandran Kukathas, Dean of the School of Social Sciences of SMU gave the welcome message.

Among the things that Dr. Low discussed in her presentation was their ageing population and the rise of migrant workers from neighbor Asia engaged in “3D” work — dirty, dangerous, demeaning — that the locals are not inclined to take.

Having an ageing population when the economy is already prosperous and developed would invite cultural and fiscal problems someday. Who will take care of the many old and retired people when their children and grandchildren are busy in work or school, like changing adult diapers — robots or migrant health workers?

I checked data for age dependency of young people — the higher the number, the better for a future “army” of workers and entrepreneurs and hence, for economic growth — and here is what I got. (See Table 1.)
  
True enough, in our hotel here, while the concierge staff are young Singaporeans and some Filipinos, many in the restaurant are locals looking to be in their 40s to 60s. The room cleaners are young migrants perhaps from Indonesia, India, and Bangladesh.

Past policies of high government intervention in family planning can backfire today or tomorrow. And this reminds me again of state-sponsored and taxpayers-funded population control measures under the controversial RH Law of the Philippines. If it was a good idea, it would not require legislation and rely on civil society voluntary funding (like Gawad Kalinga, Rotary Homes, Books for the Barrios, etc.) but because it was a bad idea, it needed legislation to coerce more taxpayers funding.

One noticeable thing in highly developed economies like Singapore is the seeming absence of many informal enterprises that compete with the formal sector. Thus, the sidewalks are really wide and clean, with no ambulant vendors that spring up from anywhere and often impede the paths of pedestrians or cars.

One interesting bit of data I came across while I was scrolling the World Bank database is competition by unregistered firms (see Table 2). Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore have no data, so either they cannot get reliable data, or all firms there are registered.


And this further shows one result of too much business regulation by governments, especially by socialist ones like China, Vietnam, and Laos. India’s constitution also declares itself as socialist.

The Philippines’ three new laws — Ease of Doing Business (EODB), Anti-Red Tape, and One Person Corporation — would encourage more Philippine entrepreneurs to go formal while restricting the grubby hands of corrupt bureaucrats from prolonging the agony of business registration and renewal of permits to solicit extortion and bribes. Kudos to the Department of Trade and Industry and Secretary Ramon Lopez for leading these reforms.

We need more economic reforms like even lower personal and corporate income taxes. The ASEAN Economic Community has unleashed tax competition among member countries to attract more investors from the region and rest of the world.
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Photos, IPRI 2019 launching in Jakarta

Thanks again to the Center for Indonesian Policy Studies (CIPS) and Paramadina Public Policy Institute for co-hosting with the Property Rights Alliance (PRA) the launching of IPRI 2019, at the auditorium of Paramadina University last October 24, 2019.










Tuesday, November 05, 2019

BWorld 379, Energy security and fast growth

* This is my paper in BusinessWorld last October 21, 2019.


KUALA LUMPUR — I came to the capital city of Malaysia to speak at the Liberalism Conference of the Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (IDEAS) last Saturday, along with the launching of the International Property Rights Index (IPRI) 2019 by the Property Rights Alliance.

Whenever I go abroad I always observe how high or low the energy use is of the cities that I visit. It is obvious that energy use here in Kuala Lumpur is high — streets, tollways, buildings and other structures are well lit at night, there are many MRT, LRT, and Monorail (running on electricity) trips per hour and the MRT/LRT stations underground are well lit and air-conditioned.

Malaysia has only 32 million people and its total electricity generation in 2018 was 168 tera-watt hours (TWH). In contrast, the Philippines has 108 million people and its electricity generation last year was only 100 TWH. Malaysia depends largely on natural gas plus coal (65 + 68 TWH) for power generation and this energy mix is similar to Japan’s.

I revisit two data sets that I put in my two recent energy columns here. Again, data on coal consumption in million tons oil equivalent (mtoe) is from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2019), data on population and GDP growth are from the World Bank, World Development Indicators database (August 2019). Dividing coal consumption over population, the kilos of oil equivalent (koe) per capita is derived. Growth rates in coal use and GDP are averaged per 10 years.

  
Three trends and facts emerge from the numbers in the table.
  
One, countries with high consumption of cheaper energy like coal, represented by their high coal koe per capita, also have higher income — Australia, South Korea, Taiwan, China, Japan, and Malaysia.

Two, the Philippines has the lowest, the smallest coal consumption among the major and emerging Asian economies — only 153 koe per person in 2018. Only one-fourth of Malaysia, one-sixth of Japan, one-ninth of China, and only 1/11 of South Korea and greenie Australia. Hong Kong’s per capita was 662 in 1998 and 837 in 2018 while Singapore’s was 0 in 1998 and 163 in 2018 or slightly higher than the Philippines. And the anti-coal groups and people in the Philippines say that ours is already high and scary that we should stop building new coal plants and retire soon existing ones? Lousy and idiotic argument.

Three, there is clear correlation between growth in cheap energy coal consumption and growth in GDP, at least for the countries covered above. Australia, Japan, and South Korea decelerated coal use from 2006 to 2018 and they also experienced growth deceleration. Malaysia, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, and the Philippines retained their high coal use and they also retained their high GDP growth.

While most anti-coal groups are watermelon (green outside, red inside) activists, some are outrightly pushing for their natural gas business. Demonize coal, prevent the construction of more coal plants so that the big distribution utilities and electric cooperatives will be forced to buy from their soon imported and more expensive LNG power to prevent massive blackouts in the country due to insufficient power supply.

Again, climate change is cyclical and natural, the warming-cooling cycle having been going on since planet Earth was born some 4.6 billion years ago. This is nature-made global warming and global cooling, not man-made or anthropogenic. The deceptive and dishonest “man-made” Climate Change narrative is part of global and national corruption to justify endless and rising oil/carbon taxes, renewables subsidies, climate loans, climate bureaucracies, and junkets.

We need more energy security to sustain fast economic growth and job creation. Cheap, stable and reliable energy that is dispatchable on demand, requires less land per MW of power generation. It is not dependent on the weather and requiring huge tracts of land that can otherwise be used for more food production and forest protection.
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Hong Kong umbrella movement, 5 years ago

Another memories popped up on my fb feeds, our friends from the Lion Rock Institute (LRI) in Hong Kong toured us at the Admiralty to see the ongoing road occupation by thousands of people in the "Umbrella movement." This was after the LRI Reading Club Salon, and before the Economic Freedom Network (EFN) Asia Conference 2014.

From left: me, Armin Reinartz, Ken Schoolland, Jadranko Brkik, Barun Mitra, Wan Saiful Wan Jan. Thanks for the photos, Jad.


Ken, Barun, me, Narwin Espiritu.





I brought my family there, stayed in my hotel room. While I was in the conference, my wife toured the two girls, including the protest area. Elle and Bien were 9 and 5 years old then.


Monday, November 04, 2019

BWorld 378, IPRI 2019 and banning brand

* My column in BusinessWorld on October 18, 2019.


“Man… had still in himself the great foundation of property… when invention and arts had improved the conveniences of life, was perfectly his own, and did not belong in common to others.”

— John Locke, Second Treatise on Government (1690)

About two centuries before the concept of intellectual property rights (IPR) was formally articulated and legislated in many countries, the great British classical liberal thinker John Locke has already argued that such inventions and arts are private property and not societal, collective, or communal property.

I used that quote when I presented my paper during the global launching of the “International Property Rights Index (IPRI) 2019 Report” at the Fairmont Hotel in Makati on Oct. 16.

IPRI is an annual study and published by the Property Rights Alliance (PRA, Washington DC) in partnership with close to a hundred independent and market-oriented think tanks worldwide.

During the formal launch, PRA Executive Director Lorenzo Montanari discussed the philosophy behind IPRI and its annual reports. He said that private property rights are human rights.
  
IPRI 2019 author Dr. Sary Levy-Carciente, an academic economist from the Universidad Central de Venezuela and a Fulbright Visiting Scholar at Boston University, Center of Polymer Studies, discussed the components, sub-components and data sources of IPRI. The results of IPRI 2019 covering 129 countries, vs IPRI 2018 covering 125 countries can be seen in the table.

  
The Philippines’ performance in 2019 over 2018 can be summarized as: (1.) an improvement in overall IPRI rank, 67th/129 vs 70th/125, also in overall score, 5.31 vs 5.22; (2.) an improvement in PPR rank, 60th/129 vs 63rd/125, score is the same; (3.) an improvement in IPR rank, 58th vs 62nd; and, (4.) a deterioration in LPE, 102nd/129 vs 95th/125, although score has barely changed. Meaning other countries simply improved significantly in LPE compared with the Philippines.

The keynote speaker before the launch was Department of Trade and Industry Secretary Ramon M. Lopez. Mr. Lopez recognized the improvement in the Philippines’ overall ranking and noted improvements in their mandates like the rising number of IPR registrations like utility models, patents, and trademarks. He also noted that the Ease of Doing Business and Anti-Red Tape laws were created only last year and this year, hence the gains are not yet fully captured in IPRI 2019 results. So we can expect an improvement in the Philippines’ ranking in IPRI 2020 and 2021. Good point, Mr. Lopez.

IPRI 2019 has several cases studies, including my paper, “Banning Brand — Economic and Consumer Impact of Plain Packaging.”

It is surprising that while the original target of banning branding on packaging and using plain packaging instead — using largely graphic warnings, bland and non-colorful marks with no brands but with the names in very small type — was tobacco, recent moves and proposals are to extend banning branding among basic consumer items — candies, crisps, sweets, high sugar drinks, soda, and even chocolates. The new goal is to fight obesity and non-communicable diseases by demonizing major brands and companies that produce these goods, and these proposals are more pronounced in UK.

I showed a critique to these moves in UK by Ron Cregan, founder of Endangered Species. He wrote:

“Simplifying the design, construction and manufacturing of consumer packaging effectively lowers, and even removes, the barriers to entry for counterfeiters. Without this complexity, plain packaging allows criminal gangs to copy and reproduce authentic and legitimate products with relative ease.”

Banning brands is ineffective at achieving policy goals, It damages the IPR environment, and cedes market share to criminal syndicates that prefer to remain anonymous rather than earn a reputation.

IPRs like trademarks and brands should be protected — for consumer choices, for investment protection, even for government taxation and battling criminality and terrorism — and not prohibited.

There were three reactors to my presentation. Director General of the Intellectual Property Office of the Philippines Josephine Santiago, FEF Fellow and trade lawyer Kristine Alcantara, and vice-chair of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s IPR committee, Dmitri Roleda.

After the launch, Lorenzo and Dr. Carciente also visited some government offices like the office of Senator Koko Pimentel, the Chairman of the Philippine Competition Commission Arsenio Balisacan, and the Chairman of the Optical Media Board Anselmo Adriano.

It is important that the sanctity of private property, physical and intellectual property, should be upheld always. Inventors, composers, writers, artists who produce original and innovative products and services should be rewarded with such recognition.
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5 years ago in Hong Kong with LRI and Cathy

These two photos popped up in my fb feeds today, Memories 5 years ago, November 4, 2014. That day, the Lion Rock Institute held its Reading Club Salon 2014 at a hotel (I forget its name now) in Hong Kong.

Standing from left: Lawrence Pak, Nick Sallnow-Smith, Kellie Wong, Fred McMahon, Barun Mitra, Brett Smith, Peter Wong, Nic Koehl, Jadranco Brkik, Xingyuan Feng.
Sitting from left: _____, Ken Schoolland, Bill Stacey, Shoulong Mao, me.


Then that evening, we were treated to a welcoming dinner by Catherine Barr Windels, then President of The Policy Workshop (NYC).  We have a full day meeting seminar the next day about IPR, health and innovation, same hotel. Time flies fast, now I don't see (from right) Xingyuan Feng, Shoulong Mao, and Barun Mitra. And now HK is no longer as peaceful.


I saw Wan Saiful Wan Jan (next to me) and Cathy last September 2017 in NYC. And I saw Kim Byung-Il (between Wan and Cathy) in Jeju Forum May of this year. Thanks again Cathy, for that wonderful evening and forum the next day.

Another photo from Xingyuan that day. Xingyuan, Shoulong, me and Peter Wong.


Sunday, November 03, 2019

BWorld 377, Property rights and transportation bureaucracy

* My column in BusinessWorld on October 15, 2019.


“In all countries where there is tolerable security, every man with common understanding will endeavour to employ whatever stock he can command, in procuring either present enjoyment or future profit.”

— Adam Smith,
The Wealth of Nations (1776), Book II, Chapter 1, “Of the division of stock”

The father of market economics was referring to private property rights protection and how people will use such property to either expand current consumption or future investments. Otherwise, if there is rampant disrespect for private property and investments, “where men are continually afraid of the violence of their superiors… they conceal a great part of their stock,” Smith added.

Among the perplexing things that continue until now is the government confiscating private property (buses, aircon vans, taxi, jeepney, private cars, motorcycles, etc.) and having these impounded by various agencies like Land Transportation Office, Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board, and Metropolitan Manila Development Authority in far away places. Corporate and individual owners of these vehicles must pay a big fine and a big towing fee before they can get their vehicles, while the vehicles may suffer some physical and mechanical damage in the process of towing and impounding.

If one passes by Ayala and Buendia Avenues in Makati, other commercial areas like Ortigas, Eastwood, BGC, and Cubao, among the regular daily sights are long lines of people, tens of thousands of passengers, queuing for a ride in buses, jeepneys, and aircon vans. There is huge insufficiency in the number of these vehicles daily, in the morning and afternoon till evening. The inconvenience has prompted many people have to drive their own cars or motorcycles, which contribute to more traffic congestion.

So why is the government confiscating and impounding private property like these vehicles when these are what the public and commuters need, which further cause inconvenience in public transportation?
  
Sure the owners of these vehicles have faults and may not have followed certain government regulations, but the regulations themselves are often very strict and costly, very bureaucratic and time consuming, they were designed to force some players to violate them, and that is where more government harassment and possible extortion comes in.

Then there is the problem with rails. The Philippines has among the most underdeveloped rail system in Asia (see Table 1).


The government should simply privatize the LRT, MRT and Philippine National Railways (PNR). After many decades, there is no significant improvement and modernization despite the huge increase in potential and actual passengers. The private sector has the financial and technical muscles to modernize these things without the need for additional taxes and subsidies, like the P6 billion a year annual subsidy to MRT alone in Edsa (see Table 2).



In addition, the Pasig River ferry needs to be privatized too. After many years of existence, the project does not appear attractive to the public.

The transportation bureaucracy, the many agencies, national and local governments, converge to penalize private sector initiatives like buses, TNVS and aircon vans with lots of restrictions, penalties, and impounding. Government needs to step back and focus on its main purpose — protect the people’s right to life, liberty, and private property. It should get out being in the business running trains and ferries.

Meanwhile, the global launching of the International Property Rights Index (IPRI) 2019 will be done tomorrow morning, Oct. 16, at Fairmont Hotel in Makati. The important speakers will be Department of Trade and Industry Secretary Ramon Lopez as Keynote Speaker, Dr. Sary Levy-Carciente, an academic economist from Venezuela to discuss the results of IPRI 2019, Lorenzo Montanari, Executive Director of the Property Rights Alliance (PRA, Washington DC), and former Department of Finance Secretary and now Chairman of the Foundation for Economic Freedom, Roberto de Ocampo as Closing Speaker. Famous TV host and trade lawyer Tony Abad will be the program emcee.
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Climate Tricks 87, 'Man-made' CC causes less storms and more storms

The usual argument by climate alarmism movement is that less rain or more rain, less flood or more flood, less storms or more storms, they are all "proof" of man-made climate change (CC). So regardless of the weather and climate, we should keep sending more money to the UN, governments, big international NGOs, etc. and they will "fight" CC. Scam.

No trend of "worsening" storms, hurricanes, typhoons. Either declining trend or a simple natural cycle of more storms followed by less storms and so on.

Four charts below about Tropical cyclone (TC) accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), from Dr. Ryan Maue, https://policlimate.com/tropical/.

1. Global Hurricane Frequency (all & major) -- 12-month running sums. The top time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached at least hurricane-force (maximum lifetime wind speed exceeds 64-knots). The bottom time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached major hurricane strength (96-knots+). Adapted from Maue (2011) GRL.


2. Last 4-decades of Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 24 month running sums. Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months for the Northern Hemisphere (bottom line/gray boxes) and the entire global (top line/blue boxes). The area in between represents the Southern Hemisphere total ACE.


Last 4-decades of Global Tropical Storm and Hurricane frequency -- 12-month running sums. The top time series is the number of TCs that reach at least tropical storm strength (maximum lifetime wind speed exceeds 34-knots). The bottom time series is the number of hurricane strength (64-knots+) TCs.


Last 4-decades of Global Tropical Storm and Hurricane Accumulated Cyclone Energy -- Annual totals. The Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season occurs from July-June each calendar year. The graph is constructed such that SH annual value for July 2014 - July 2015 is positioned in 2015.

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