Government and Taxes

Friday, September 17, 2021

BWorld 505, ADB’s kill coal plan, government corporations, and power transmission

* My column in BusinessWorld, Sept. 13, 2021.

The past two weeks, these stories in BusinessWorld caught my attention: “ADB studying feasibility of acquiring, retiring coal plants in PHL” (Aug. 30), “DoF to support shift to low-carbon energy production” (Aug. 31), “ADB urged to rule out investment in fossil fuel” (Sept. 2), “Gov’t think tank backs stimulus to be directed to ‘green recovery’” (Sept. 2).

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is planning to acquire coal power plants in the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia, and retire them early, to be replaced by renewables like biomass, solar, and wind. This a joint lobby by European countries and four private finance institutions — Prudential UK, Citi, HSBC and BlackRock.

How much will they spend for this? They will be spending $16 billion to $29 billion for half of Indonesia’s coal capacity, $9 billion to $17 billion for Vietnam’s, and $5 billion to $9 billion for the Philippines’.

The Department of Finance (DoF), the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), and many environmental NGOs jumped in to support the ADB plan. These institutions and groups are blind to certain facts so they made that irrational proposal.

One, they repeatedly bully smaller Asian economies like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia but not China and India. For instance, the combined coal consumption of these three countries in 2019 was 6.21 exajoules (1 EJ = 277.78 terawatt-hours), which was only 33.4% of India’s and 7.6% of China’s coal consumption.

Two, the coal consumption of these five Asian countries contributed to their huge expansion. They relied on cheap, stable coal power, and their 2019 consumption is 3.7 times to 24 times their 1990 coal consumption.

Three, by way of contrast, three large European countries — Germany, Italy, and the UK — shrank their coal consumption in 2019 to only 0.1 to 0.5 times their 1990 level, and their GDP expansion was only 1.7 times to 2.4 times in 2019 what it had been in 1990.

Four, in comparison also with two other European countries, Poland and Turkey, that keep their coal consumption high, their GDP expansion was 3.7 times to 9.6 times from 1990 to 2019 (see Table 1).

The ADB plan, when finally implemented, will not happen right away, of course. It will take several years. But ADB and its partners will appear hypocritical about their pronouncements on economic recovery. How can countries have sustained economic recovery when there are frequent blackouts, with the big manufacturing plants, hotels, and malls running their own gensets? At night, more blackouts mean more road accidents, more rapes, murders, and other crimes.

Last week, this column discussed the 2022 budget and huge borrowings (https://www.bworldonline.com/budget-2022-borrowings-and-octa/, Sept. 6). We follow this up with the huge budgetary subsidy of many government corporations — they are supposed to contribute to the national treasury but are seeking high taxpayers’ subsidies instead. For instance, the Social Security System (SSS) and the Land Bank of the Philippines (LBP) got subsidies of P51 billion and P38 billion in 2020.

The subsidy to Department of Energy (DoE) corporations are nearly six times the budget of the DoE itself. Many losing and failing private electric cooperatives are being subsidized by taxpayers via the higher budget allotted to the National Electrification Administration (see Table 2).

The Power Sector Assets and Liabilities Management Corp., better known as PSALM, is supposed to bring more billions to the Treasury via the privatization of the remaining government-owned power plants, but instead, PSALM will seek P16 billion this year and next year. Why?

The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) is very strict in regulating the competitive power generation sector, but is lax when it comes to huge monopoly power transmission. There are many transmission issues, newly commissioned power plants that are not sufficiently connected to the grid, and yet the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) hardly gets a strict warning or regulations from the ERC.

The Philippines has huge outstanding public debt — P7.73 trillion in 2019, P9.80 trillion in 2020, P11.73 trillion in 2021, P13.4 trillion in 2022. How to reduce this and avoid large-scale tax hikes in the coming years?

One alternative is to have large-scale privatization of many government corporations. Candidates are those listed above, and others with huge total assets (2022 levels): the National Transmission Corp. (TransCo), P324.86 billion; the Development Bank of the Philippines (DBP), P1.16 trillion; and the Government Service Insurance System (GSIS), P1.607 trillion.
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See also:
BWorld 502, My whole family got COVID, August 29, 2021
BWorld 503, Ten trends in fossil fuel taxation and power generation, September 07, 2021
BWorld 504, Budget 2022, borrowings, and OCTA, September 10, 2021.

Saturday, September 11, 2021

Covid 55, Vax injuries, some testimonies and news reports

At the Concerned Doctors and Citizens of the Philippines (CDC Ph) Huddle last Sept. 24, these comments were posted that night:

Belinda T. Toledo · 1:10:58
My cousin died of high blood/heart attack 6 days after his 1st dose of vaccine. Then pag swab sa kanya positive daw po sa covid and need na i cremate.

Belinda T. Toledo · 1:15:49
He's against vaccine din po kaya lang need daw sa work kaya napilitan. At dahil may waiver before magpa vaccine paano tayo makakapagreklamo. Sino ang dapat managot?

Hazel Che · 1:15:41
Ano po brand ng vaxx?

Belinda T. Toledo · 1:16:27
Hazel Che astra po.

AL Mary · 1:16:43
Sorry for your loss po..
Same sa biyenan ng kapatid namin..1 month after ng bakulam...2 beses inatake...nung pangatlong atake hindi na kinaya..pero wala naman sakit sa puso un..79 years old

Julio Agosto · 0:00
halos lahat ng namatay post vax ay nagka-heart attack. Gaya ng pari sa Caloocan na fully baks na.

Tig Pasi-ugda · 1:07:25
Hello po. Need to ask. Is there compensation for a vaccine related injury po? How to avail? My friend developed facial spasm after receiving Pfizer jabs.. advise pls? Tenx u

CDC Ph announcement, sept 2, facebook:

Betong Hipolito
My condolences, i dont believe in vaccine because of the severe reaction i did took mine coz i need it for travel MODERNA Now im experiencing loss of memory litle by litle id rather die.

Doc Cathy, August 26:

My Dad's friend just died 12 days after getting Moderna.

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Meanwhile, these sites could be interesting:

Vaccine Side Effects Philippines
https://www.facebook.com/groups/356751085792569/permalink/399345088199835/

https://www.c19vaxreactions.com/

Finally, news reports from other parts of the world:

(1) We are Destroying the Lives of our Young with Experimental COVID Injections
by Brian Shilhavy Editor, Health Impact News August 14, 2021
https://healthimpactnews.com/2021/we-are-destroying-the-lives-of-our-young-with-experimental-covid-injections/

From age 12 to those in their 20s, formerly healthy young people are now dying and being permanently crippled by the COVID shots.
Sometimes cold words as text on a screen just don’t do justice to tragedies like these.

(2) Two Top Virologists’ Frightening Warnings About COVID Injections: Ignored by Government and Big Media
By Joel S. Hirschhorn Global Research, August 23, 2021
https://www.globalresearch.ca/two-top-virologists-frightening-warnings-about-covid-injections-ignored-government-big-media/5753731

Dr. Luc Montagnier, a French virologist and recipient of the 2008 Nobel Prize in Medicine for his discovery of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). He has a doctorate in medicine….

Montagnier refers to the mass vaccine program as an “unacceptable mistake” and are a “scientific error as well as a medical error.” His assertion is that “The history books will show that…it is the vaccination that is creating the variants.” In other words: “There are antibodies, created by the vaccine,” forcing the virus to “find another solution” or die. “This is where the variants are created. It is the variants that “are a production and result from the vaccination.”

Dr. Vanden Bossche. PhD degree in Virology from the University of Hohenheim, Germany. He held faculty appointments at universities in Belgium and Germany. He was at the German Center for Infection Research in Cologne as Head of the Vaccine Development Office….

He too has loudly called for a halt to mass-vaccination programs. He believes that if the jabs are not halted, they could lead to the evolution of stronger and stronger variants of the virus until a “supervirus” takes hold and wipes out huge numbers of people.

“Given the huge amount of immune escape that will be provoked by mass vaccination campaigns and flanking containment measures, it is difficult to imagine how human interventions would not cause the COVID-19 pandemic to turn into an incredible disaster for global and individual health.”

(3) Two Different Antibody-Dependent Enhancement (ADE) Risks for SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies
Darrell O. Ricke*
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7943455/

Summary

Given past data on multiple SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV vaccine efforts have failed due to ADE in animal models (75, 81), it is reasonable to hypothesize a similar ADE risk for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and vaccines. ADE risks may be associated with antibody level (which can wane over time after vaccination) and also if the antibodies are derived from prior exposures to other coronaviruses. In addition, ADE with mast cells likely plays a role in MIS-C for infants and possibly older MIS-C and MIS-A patients. While expanded trophism of SARS-CoV-2 represents a possible ADE risk in the subset of COVID-19 patients with disease progression beyond the mild disease stage.

(4) Vaccine voodoo
BY JAMES RICKARDS AUGUST 31, 2021
https://dailyreckoning.com/vaccine-voodoo/

Again, vaccination doesn’t stop infection. It doesn’t stop the spread. A fully vaccinated person can catch COVID and spread it to others. The unvaccinated have as much to fear in terms of catching the disease from the vaccinated as the other way around.

(5) Virus czar calls to begin readying for eventual 4th vaccine dose
Salman Zarka says COVID-19 is here to stay for and that next booster shot may be adjusted for variants: ‘This is our life from now on, in waves’
By TOI STAFF 4 September 2021, 6:38 pm
https://www.timesofisrael.com/virus-czar-calls-to-begin-readying-for-eventual-4th-vaccine-dose/

“And thinking about this and the waning of the vaccines and the antibodies, it seems every few months — it could be once a year or five or six months — we’ll need another shot.”

(6) Why Isn’t Anyone Talking About Natural Immunity?
Joanna Miller September 8, 2021
https://www.theorganicprepper.com/natural-immunity/

Our immune system is really sophisticated, and in healthy individuals, it works pretty well. Suppose some kind of pathogen makes it past the body’s innate defenses and begins infecting cells within the host. In that case, the host’s body will, in turn, start producing antibodies that will specifically attack the invading pathogen. The host body will continue producing antibodies until either the host dies or the invading cells die, and the patient’s body can return to normal.

The best part is, even after the active infection is over, the host’s body will retain the memory of the antibodies it produced during the infection. So if the formerly infected person reencounters the pathogen, the body will immediately have the antibodies to kill the pathogen. They rarely get sick again, and if they do, it’s generally very mild.

(7) Michael Yeadon -A Final Warning to Humanity From Former Pfizer Chief Scientist
By admin AUG 17, 2021
https://peoplesworldwar.com/michael-yeadon-a-final-warning-to-humanity/

(8) Whistleblower: I've seen more people die from COVID-19 vaccine than virus
'None of that is being talked about on the news. It doesn't fit their narrative'
By WND Staff August 17, 2021 at 7:59pm
https://www.wnd.com/2021/08/whistleblower-seen-people-die-covid-vaccine-virus/

(9) VAXXED Patients' Blood Examined, Horrific Findings Revealed by German Physicians!
Stew Peters Show Published August 18, 2021
https://rumble.com/vldaex-vaxxed-patients-blood-examined-horrific-findings-revealed-by-german-physici.html

(10) Universal vaccination vs targeted vaccination
Nadya Swart September 6, 2021
https://www.biznews.com/thought-leaders/2021/09/06/universal-vaccination

(11) The Covidian Cult (Part III)
CJ Hopkins September 2, 2021
https://consentfactory.org/2021/09/02/the-covidian-cult-part-iii/

(12) Bombshell Study: Vaccine Protection Against COVID Infection And Viral Load ‘Vanishes’ Within 6 Months
By Kenneth Richard on 3. September 2021
https://notrickszone.com/2021/09/03/bombshell-study-vaccine-protection-against-covid-infection-and-viral-load-vanishes-within-6-months/

(13) Reports of Rare Body Inflammation After COVID-19 Vaccinations Being Investigated by EU Watchdog
By Jack Phillips September 3, 2021
https://www.theepochtimes.com/reports-of-rare-body-inflammation-after-covid-19-vaccinations-being-investigated-by-eu-watchdog_3980529.html

Welcome to Clown World: Part 2 — Vaccine zealots
By Nick Hudson, PANDA

We should offer the vaccine to the 10 or 20% of the population who are in the vulnerable minority and who have not recovered from Covid, and desist from coercing anyone to submit to one. If the vaccines are even moderately effective, this would reduce Covid mortality to modest levels, while minimising potential harm through adverse events and through diversion of resources. This is standard good public health practice, and the way vaccines are designed to be used—targeted to gain maximal impact on the vulnerable within a wider health context. We should offer people options based on sound, established immunological and public health principles on vaccine use and deployment, and move on from this shameful mania.

(14) Repeated Exposure to Subinfectious Doses of SARS-CoV-2 May Promote T Cell Immunity and Protection against Severe COVID-19
Maria Laura De Angelis, Federica Francescangeli, Rachele Rossi, Alessandro Giuliani, Ruggero De Maria, Ann Zeuner
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34067349/

… T cells progressively developing upon natural exposure to low virus doses present in populated environments. As suggested by recent studies, low-dose viral particles entering the respiratory and intestinal tracts may be able to induce T cell memory in the absence of inflammation, potentially resulting in different degrees of immunization. In this scenario, non-pharmaceutical interventions would play a double role, one in the short term by reducing the detrimental spreading of SARS-CoV-2 particles, and one in the long term by allowing the development of a widespread (although heterogeneous and uncontrollable) form of immune protection.
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Friday, September 10, 2021

Energy 153, High natgas and coal prices

I am reposting these news reports, how the world, Europe especially, cannot really get out of fossil fuel dependence despite all the political pronouncements. Meanwhile, prices as of this writing.

Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany nears completion as natural gas trades at all-time highs

By Joe Wallace and James Marson Aug. 25, 2021 7:41 am ET
https://www.wsj.com/articles/gas-shortage-boosts-russias-sway-over-europes-energy-markets-11629891705

Europe is facing a natural-gas shortage just as Russia is completing a controversial pipeline to Germany, increasing President Vladimir Putin’s leverage over the continent’s energy flows...

Russia, Europe’s biggest gas supplier, has declined to book big additional flows through pipelines in Ukraine, which are running below full capacity.

Claim: As the world battles to slash carbon emissions, Australia considers paying dirty coal stations to stay open longer
Tim Nelson, Griffith University and Joel Gilmore, Griffith University
August 29, 2021
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/08/29/as-the-world-battles-to-slash-carbon-emissions-australia-considers-paying-dirty-coal-stations-to-stay-open-longer/

The Energy Security Board (ESB) provides advice to the nation’s energy ministers and comprises the heads of Australia’s major energy governing bodies.

Advice to the ministers on the electricity market redesign, released on Thursday, includes a recommendation for a mechanism formally known as the Physical Retailer Reliability Obligation (PRRO).

Britain forced to fire up coal plant amid record power prices and winter squeeze
Two coal facilities taken off standby as the amount of electricity coming from wind farms falls dramatically
By Rachel Millard and Olivia Rudgard, 6 September 2021 • 8:14pm
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/09/06/britain-forced-fire-coal-plant-amid-record-power-prices/

The UK has turned to a coal-fired power station to help boost its energy supply after global gas and power prices hit new highs and wind farms produced very low levels of electricity.

National Grid ESO, which balances Britain’s electricity supply and demand, asked EDF to fire up two units at its West Burton A power station in Lincolnshire. They had previously been on standby.

Europe’s High Energy Prices Are Just The Beginning
By Julianne Geiger - Sep 06, 2021, 3:30 PM CDT
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Europes-High-Energy-Prices-Are-Just-The-Beginning.html

And if Europe is still hoping that its own fossil fuels would prevent a winter price crunch for power, it would be wrong. According to Bloomberg, several production outages and declining gas fields have helped to send natural gas prices trading at a premium to crude oil.
Some estimates see retail consumers paying 20% more for utility bills.

Coal price surge gives Australia a new hope against China
China’s tough crackdown has brought Australia’s $149 billion iron ore industry to its knees – but hope has come in a new form.
Alex Turner-Cohen September 8, 2021 - 4:34PM
https://www.news.com.au/finance/markets/world-markets/coal-price-surge-gives-australia-a-new-hope-against-china/news-story/f4648c82731cbe8e232302e763ad7071

When markets closed on Monday, metallurgical or coking coal was selling for $274 a tonne, very near the all-time high of $299.33 a tonne in November 2016.
The $274 cost was below its close last Friday which was the highest price for coal since April 2017.
In the past year, coal has been up 170 per cent.

California's Top Grid Operator Asks Feds To Burn More Fossil Fuels To Avert Blackouts
BY TYLER DURDEN THURSDAY, SEP 09, 2021 - 09:00 PM
https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/californias-top-grid-operator-asks-feds-burn-more-fossil-fuels-avert-blackouts

CAISO wants the DoE to suspend air-pollution rules so it can use natural gas turbines as "back-up power generation and freeing up additional energy capacity to help alleviate electric demand on the electricity grid."

California declares energy emergency, seeks to avert blackouts by burning more fossil fuels
9 September 2021
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-09/california-seeks-to-avert-blackouts-by-burning-more-fossil-fuels

Furious Europeans Protest Electricity Hyperinflation: Lagarde Are You Watching?
BY TYLER DURDEN THURSDAY, SEP 09, 2021 - 10:25 AM https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/furious-europeans-protest-electricity-hyperinflation-christine-lagarde-are-you-watching

...Take Spain, with one-day ahead power prices at €152.32 per MWh... one-day ahead electricity prices in the UK just going hyperbolic... "power prices are now front-page story in Spain. A huge political problem."

Ireland freezes power exports to UK as energy costs rocket tenfold
10 September 2021
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/09/09/ireland-freezes-power-exports-uk-energy-costs-rocket-tenfold/

A toxic combination of low wind speeds and a severe squeeze on the supply of natural gas sent power costs jumping tenfold on the British mainland on Thursday to as much as £2,300 per megawatt-hour, a new record high.

Claim: Australia can Live the Renewable Energy Dream – All We Need is a Trillion Dollars of Government Loans
Eric Worrall September 8, 2021
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/09/07/claim-australia-can-live-the-renewable-energy-dream-all-we-need-is-a-trillion-dollars-of-government-loans/

The biggest issue which jumps out at me, the expenditure Saul proposes is not a one off. If everyone continues to replace their appliances every 10 years, we’re talking about an additional $1 trillion or $100,000 per household which will have to be part financed by additional government soft loans every 10 years.

Natural gas prices are rising and could be the most expensive in 13 years this winter
Patti Domm SEP 9 20213:59 PM EDT
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/09/natural-gas-prices-are-rising-and-could-be-the-most-expensive-in-13-years-this-winter.html

In the futures market, the natural gas contract for October rose above $5 per one million British thermal units, or mmBtus, for the first time since February, 2014. Besides electricity and heating demand, natural gas is an important feed stock and is used in the processing of chemicals, fertilizers, paper and glass, among other products.

China coal-fired power companies on the verge of bankruptcy petition Beijing to raise electricity prices
The Beijing Electric Power Industry Association has asked authorities for permission to raise electricity rates as coal prices skyrocket
Petition follows a letter last month from 11 coal-fired power companies within the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan power grid asking for relief
Luna Sun 5:30pm, 10 Sep, 2021
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3148291/china-coal-fired-power-companies-verge-bankruptcy-petition

Supply shortages have driven up coal prices in China and coal-fired power stations can only raise rates to accommodate increasing operational costs by as much as 10 per cent, with a large part of electricity prices fixed by the government.

But last year, the National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s top economic planning agency, prohibited all rate rises.
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BWorld 504, Budget 2022, borrowings, and OCTA

* My article in BusinessWorld, Sept. 6, 2021.

There are five important and unprecedented trends in the proposed National Government budget for 2022 that were not present in 2021 and previous years.

One, the budget will reach P5 trillion. When there is fiscal responsibility, this should also require P5 trillion of taxes, fees, and other revenues without resorting to new borrowings.

Two, allocations to local government units (LGUs) will reach P1.1 trillion. The Mandanas ruling affirmed by the Supreme Court and to be implemented in 2022 mandates that the internal revenue allotment (IRA) of LGUs should be based on total tax revenues of the National Government and not just collections by the Bureau of Internal Revenue.

Three, the budgets of some departments keep rising even if they should devolve more functions to the LGUs. These include the Departments of Education, Health, and Social Welfare and Development.

Four, outstanding public debt will reach P13.4 trillion. This is due to high borrowings of P2+ trillion a year since 2020 and big decline in revenues due to prolonged indefinite lockdown. Interest payments alone for the huge government borrowings were P532 billion in 2021 and P513 billion in 2022.

Five, government personnel services and pensions are to reach P1.4 trillion. From 2021, the Pension and Gratuity Fund were created separately from personnel services and these pensions, separation benefits have reached P232 billion in 2022. Government salaries, allowances and bonuses including non-essential bureaus continued despite many business closures (see Table 1).

One seemingly minor but noticeable trend in the budget is that while the Office of the President has P5 billion to P8 billion a year budget despite having control and jurisdiction over all Departments, the Office of the Vice-President only gets P0.6-P0.9 billion a year. This despite the fact that the Vice-President is the second highest official of the country.

On Monday, Sept. 6, the House Committee on Good Government and Public Accountability was to discuss House Resolution (HR) No. 2075, “Urging the House Committee on Good Government to Conduct an Inquiry, in Aid of Legislation, on the Qualifications, Research Methodologies, Partnerships, and Composition of OCTA Research Philippines.” The HR was authored by Representatives Bernadette Herrera Dy, Kristine Singson-Meehan, Sharon Garin, Stella Luz Quimbo, and Bong Suntay.

I received a formal invitation to be one of the speakers from the Committee Chairman, Representative Michael Edgar Aglipay. Since Dr. Benigno “Iggy” Agbayani was also invited and we are both members of the Concerned Doctors and Citizens of the Philippines (CDC PH), I informed Mr. Aglipay that I would not present and I sent my input and research to Doc Iggy and he will present our joint paper.

Among the data that Doc Iggy and I submitted to the Committee were the economic damage of indefinite, hard, “circuit breaker” lockdowns that OCTA has been advocating and are music to the ears of Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF) officials.

The actual GDP level, the flow of goods and services in a year or in a quarter — not just GDP percentage growth or contraction — are as follows:

The 2020 GDP level of P17.53 trillion was even lower than the 2018 level of P18.26 trillion, so three years of economic performance was erased. And this is only P351 billion higher than the 2017 level.

The first half 2021 GDP level of P8.89 trillion was even lower than the first half 2018 level of P8.94 trillion. And it was only P490 billion higher than the first half 2017 level (see Table 2).

OCTA has proposed “circuit breaker” hard lockdowns twice this year, on March 19 and July 27, both days with 7,000 cases each. Three weeks after March 19, there were 9,000 to 12,000 cases per day. Palpak sila OCTA and IATF (OCTA and IATF bungled) — their “circuit breaker 1” hard lockdown did not work and was based on false prediction.

In “circuit breaker 2” hard lockdown that OCTA announced on July 27 and implemented by the IATF in early August, the range of cases was 6,000 to 22,000 a day, an average of about 13,000 a day, twice the July 27 level of 7,000. Palpak na naman sila OCTA and IATF (OCTA and IATF bungled it again). More proof that hard lockdowns do not work and OCTA was using and announcing false predictions.

While OCTA may have good math models in computing the reproduction number R naught (R0) and related statistics, OCTA has a bad understanding about the virus. Viruses are not static and have properties of natural mutation into other variants.

OCTA and its followers in government should shut up about the false predictions and step back on hard lockdown policies. We have had lockdowns for 18 months straight already, have mass vaccination and vax discrimination policies, and still infection rates and daily cases are rising, not declining.
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See also:
BWorld 501, Growth and long-term energy supply, August 28, 2021
BWorld 502, My whole family got COVID, August 29, 2021
BWorld 503, Ten trends in fossil fuel taxation and power generation, September 07, 2021.

Pol Ideology 80, Capitalism reset, liberal democracy

The Philippines Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) will hold a webinar next week on capitalism reset.

Reset capitalism, hahaha, Who will reset it, the statists (state worshippers), the capitalists, or both?

Very likely, both. Bureaucrats and politicians who have little or zero experience running a business but think they can control these businesses via regulations, prohibitions, taxation. And "weakling capitalists" who cannot win in open field competition so they seek legislations, other government regulations to cripple their competitors and they become "winners" or "viable." Examples are so many RE companies.

The "reset capitalism" advocates very likely salivate to trim the riches of these rich Filipino families. From Philstar today,

In a country of 110 million people, we only have few $ billionaires, perhaps 30 or 40. Bad. Instead of demonizing rich families, we should aspire to have 200, 300 $ billionaires.

Organizer PIDS -- wala bang Reset PIDS? :-)

On Liberal Democracy.

I think this is a contradiction in terms. Liberal, liberalism, is to liberate the individual. Say the individual wants to smoke, drink, vape, do drugs, frequent sky jumping, steep rock climbing, fast downhill cycling, etc. Liberate the individual.

Democracy is the rule of the majority, the collective. If the collective will decide that they should eat even if they don't work, then society should follow, enact laws to implement this including high taxes for the minority, the rich and efficient, to finance this large-scale mass feeding program.

If we go back to Adam Smith's "Theory of Moral Sentiments", followed by "The Wealth of Nations", the man was talking more about liberalism, the individual, the entrepreneur, little about the collective, the group. The "invisible hand" is about the individual pursuing his/her individual interests like earning big to feed the family, and there is public welfare -- mass food production, more efficient food distribution, lower food prices due to more competition -- that is not part of the individuals' original intentions.

Modern economics and politics are highly corrupted. The individual should be heavily taxed, heavily bureaucratized, prohibited from doing many things that the state worshippers have deemed "public bads". No smoking/vaping/drinking here or there, or you can but tax is 3x, 10x the original price, not allowed to use this type of energy, RE only, and so on. Corrupt.

"Freedom is not an absolute right in itself - it must subscribe to the Common Good."

This statement is illiberal. In a free society, everything is allowed except when expressedly or categorically prohibited, like no murder, no abduction, no rape, no stealing, no arson, other acts that harm other people. In an unfree society, everything is not allowed unless people get government permits. Like you cannot build a house, repair your house, reoccupy your house after repair, etc unless you get permits.
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See also:
Pol Ideology 77, On monopolies, M&A's and virtual government, Nov. 27, 2019
Pol. Ideology 78, Milton Friedman and China, October 26, 2020
Pol. Ideology 79, Paul Krugman leftism, January 03, 2021.

Tuesday, September 07, 2021

Macroecon 12, August 2021 inflation rate highest since Dec. 2018

Today the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released the August 2021 inflation rate -- it's 4.9% -- highest since Dec 2018.

https://psa.gov.ph/statistics/survey/price/summary-inflation-report-consumer-price-index-2012100-august-2021

Malacanang, NEDA, IATF officials, knew this yesterday. Possible it's the main reason why they annnunced yesterday to relax the lockdown from MECQ to GCQ despite 22.4k cases yesterday. Things are worsening, not improving in the econ. Sustained lockdown means continued supply disruption as people mobility -- farmers, fisherfolks, manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers, etc -- remained restricted and politicized (My tractor caretaker told me that it's difficult to buy spare parts in other towns bec of various checkpoints). And prices go up.

Meanwhile, here is the forecast of 16 economists polled by BusinessWorld.

https://www.bworldonline.com/analysts-august-2021-inflation-rate-estimates/

As of today, four other East Asian countries have announced their August 2021 inflation rates. None of them have 4% or higher.

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate
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BWorld 503, Ten trends in fossil fuel taxation and power generation

* My column in BusinessWorld last August 30, 2021.

After food, air, and water, humanity’s second most useful commodities would be fossil fuels. From fishing and sea transport, farming and land transport, storage, air transport and electricity generation, their value and usefulness are beyond question.

Yet fossil fuels are also the most politicized, demonized, most taxed commodities for supposedly causing “environmental damage,” “carbon pollution,” and the “climate crisis.”

I checked revenue data for the P5.024 trillion proposed 2022 budget from the Department of Budget and Management (DBM), Budget of Expenditures and Sources of Financing (BESF) 2022. Seven trends can be inferred from the numbers (see Table 1).

One, excise tax from petroleum products collected by both the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) and Bureau of Customs (BoC) were huge at P97 billion/year in 2019-2020, and projected to rise further to P108.6 billion/year from 2021-2023.

Two, royalties from Malampaya gas are still big — P23.4 billion/year from 2018-2020 — but this is projected to decline to P15.4 billion/year from 2021-2023.

Three, coal royalties plus excise tax on coal was modest at P5.7 billion/year from 2018-2020 but expected to rise to P8.7 billion/year from 2021-2023.

Four, combined taxes plus non-tax/royalties from fossil fuels were huge at P112.5 billion/year from 2018-2020, and estimated to rise to P133.5 billion/year from 2021-2023.

Five, the share of revenues from fossil fuels constituted on average 3.8% of total revenues of the government from 2018-2020, and is seen to rise slightly to 4.1% of total revenues from 2021-2023.

Six, these revenues are on fossil fuel products only and do not include corporate income tax, VAT and non-tax (regulatory fees, fines, etc.) collection from companies that extract, refine, transport, and distribute fossil fuel products. Also, these do not include the personal income taxes of people working in these companies.

Seven, the huge taxes and royalties from fossil fuels were really meant to finance the various spending and bureaucracies, national and local, and have little or nothing to do with the narratives of fighting “carbon pollution/climate crisis.”

Meanwhile last week, the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) conducted its monthly media briefing and among the data presented was the power generation mix for the Luzon-Visayas grids until July 2021.

To give further context, I added the national power generation mix in 2020 and 2015, and the Feed-in Tariff Allowance (FiT-All) that was granted starting 2015. Three more trends in fossil fuel contribution to power generation mix cropped up (see Table 2).

So, eight, fossil fuel-based power plants — coal, natural gas and oil — remain the workhorses of the Philippines’ power generation to avoid blackouts. They contributed 74.5% of total electricity production in 2015, which rose to 78.8% in 2020, and 82.5% in May-July 2021.

Nine, the share of conventional renewables — geothermal and hydro — has been declining, from 23.9% of total power generation in 2015, to 17.7% in 2020, and 14.3% in May-July 2021.

Ten, the share of favored renewable energy (RE) — wind, solar, and biomass — hardly improved, from 1.5% of total power generation in 2015, to 3.6% in 2020, and 3.3% in May-July 2021.

Then consider these three recent reports in BusinessWorld: “TransCo proposes FiT-All rate of P0.3320/kWh” (Aug. 18), “RE preferences seen needed to ensure industry takes off” (Aug. 25), “DoE orders Napocor to resolve Mindoro power issues; improvements expected by end of September (Aug. 27).

Higher Fit-All is further proof that the renewables law of 2008 was meant to enrich mainly wind-solar developers whose FiT rates per kwh are nearly double the FiT rates for biomass and run-of-river hydro, make electricity more unstable and more expensive for consumers. And these RE backers want more preferences, more favoritism “to take off.”

And then there is the never-ending financial-technical problems of many provincial electric cooperatives (ECs). Last week the Philippine Rural Electric Cooperatives Assn., Inc. (PhilRECA) issued a statement defending the administrator of the National Electrification Administration (NEA) from corruption charges.

I am not privy to these allegations and counter-allegations, but that big ECs with multi-millions in assets remain under the political protection of a political body called NEA can raise political suspicions. The NEA has a budget of P12.9 billion in 2020, P2.5 billion in 2021, and a proposed budget of P1.8 billion in 2022. We have one-person corporations under the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and yet those huge ECs do not want more transparent rules of SEC to guide them and prefer the political cover by NEA. Not good. All these ECs should become corporations someday.
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See also:
BWorld 500, 10 trends in mortality 2020 in the Philippines, August 26, 2021
BWorld 501, Growth and long-term energy supply, August 28, 2021
BWorld 502, My whole family got COVID, August 29, 2021.

Covid 54, Boycott and discriminate Joey Concepcion businesses

I wrote this last August 30, 2021:

See these pronouncements from a trying hard government bureaucrat:

(1) Creating a transport bubble for the fully vaccinated
GO NEGOSYO PILIPINAS ANGAT LAHAT! - Joey Concepcion
August 19, 2021 | 12:00am
https://www.philstar.com/business/2021/08/19/2120936/creating-transport-bubble-fully-vaccinated

Yesterday, I met with Transportation Secretary Art Tugade to recommend the possible deployment of buses for fully-vaccinated individuals…. Currently, when fully-vaccinated individuals leave their homes, they commute alongside unvaccinated passengers, hence letting their guard down. With the regular buses, both the unvaccinated and the vaccinated are at risk to each other. We do not want a scenario wherein we just simply let the vaccinated individuals interact with those who are unvaccinated given the current threat from the Delta variant.

Again, we will not surpass this lockdown if unvaccinated individuals are given absolute liberty that they had during the pre-pandemic situation. They are the cause of increased transmissions and the best that we can do is to limit their mobility in the pandemic epicenter, which is Metro Manila. If we do not implement this, then there will be no way for us to prevent the spread of COVID-19, and lockdowns will just become a norm in our country.

(2) Metro buses only for the vaxxed? Palace adviser tackles idea with DOTr
Mariejo Ramos / 05:40 AM August 20, 2021
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1476142/metro-buses-only-for-the-vaxxed-palace-aide-tackles-idea-with-dotr

Concepcion, who heads food and beverage company RFM Corp., said most of the company’s factory workers had already been vaccinated, allowing it to achieve what he called “micro-herd immunity” in their workplace.

(3) Business leaders want mandatory vaccination for employees
By Jenina P. Ibañez August 19, 2021 | 12:33 am
https://www.bworldonline.com/business-leaders-want-mandatory-vaccination-for-employees/

Presidential Adviser for Entrepreneurship Jose Ma. “Joey” Concepcion III said that most companies are able to persuade their employees to avail of the vaccines.

“The private sector has its own ways of persuading their employees. (There is) inconvenience, especially if you pinpoint that there will be less mobility eventually for the unvaccinated,” he said, noting that he has spoken to DoLE about this issue.

“I think it’s required — if you really want to achieve herd immunity… everybody has to be vaccinated,” he added.

(4) Concepcion rallies support for greater mobility for vaccinated
Louella Desiderio August 24, 2021 | 12:00am
https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2021/08/24/2122145/concepcion-rallies-support-greater-mobility-vaccinated

“This proposal to allow the fully vaccinated to enter business establishments I think is a way forward, not only to bring down the level of quarantine we have today, but hopefully will end all lockdowns in the future which, as you all know, has created a very difficult environment for all of us trying to run our respective businesses,” he said.

“Once 50 percent of Metro Manila population has been fully vaccinated, considering limiting the mobility of the unvaccinated can be the safer option to open the economy and protect everyone,” he said.
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Really Joey, "the unvaccinated... are the cause of increased transmissions and the best that we can do is to limit their mobility"?

Wow, great crystal ball you consulted there. If your data is correct, explain this? More vaccination, more Covid transmission and cases, three very industrialized countries?

Now Joey because you are the #1 campaigner lobbyist for discrimination in this country, then you should be the #1 recipient of citizen discrimination too.

People, let us discriminate and BOYCOTT all of Joey Concepcion businesses. I got this meme from a friend, not sure if this is complete.

I know this is not a good situation, respeto na lang, Joey, walang pilitan. Not all people should be given vax due to their existing comorbidities, allergies, age, pregnancy, etc. There are also people who believe more in God-created natural immunity and not man/government/pharma-created artificial immunity.

Wala na lang pilitan, Joey. Your citizen discrimination proposal will create more economic hardships to the unvaxxed. A boycott RFM and your other businesses will also create economic pain to your workers and stockholders. Learn to respect na lang, ok? Learn to shut up too.

IATF, DOH, OP, Congress -- you should never never entertain the idea of vax discrimination among the people. Otherwise you must accept taxpayers discrimination too. Unvaxxed and discriminated citizens should stop paying taxes (personal income, VAT, gasoline and electricity taxes,...) that pay for the salaries, travels, allowances, offices, perks of government people who will discriminate against them.

Thank you.

Bienvenido "Nonoy" Oplas, Jr.
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Follow up, September 4, 2021:

SeeSee recent pronouncements from a new Malacanang bureaucrat while running several businesses:

(1) Attaining fully vaccinated homes, workplaces — key to fully protected Phl
GO NEGOSYO PILIPINAS ANGAT LAHAT! - Joey Concepcion
September 2, 2021 | 12:00am
https://www.philstar.com/business/2021/09/02/2124158/attaining-fully-vaccinated-homes-workplaces-key-fully-protected-phl

"bakuna bubble encourages families and companies to try, at the very least, to achieve micro-herd immunity at their levels. Our homes are where micro-herd immunity should start. For example, my own bubble is my family: my wife, my children, and our kasambahays, as well as our extended family members. That bubble should aim to achieve 100 percent full vaccination...

"the unvaccinated may still be allowed entry to malls and other areas, but not in high-risk establishments where it is inevitable, for instance, to take off our masks, like in restaurants, spa, and gyms."

(2) Concepcion eyes pilot testing of ‘bakuna bubble’
Louella Desiderio September 3, 2021 | 12:00am
https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2021/09/03/2124530/concepcion-eyes-pilot-testing-bakuna-bubble

Under the proposed bubble, vaccinated individuals would be required to show their vaccine card, while the unvaccinated would have to present a negative antigen or RT-PCR (reverse transcription - polymerase chain reaction) test before entering high-risk establishments such as restaurants, salons, coffee shops and gyms….

“The presence of the Delta variant has changed the game, but the key objectives of vaccines – preventing hospitalization, deaths and transmission – remain the same. Those fully vaccinated have a slimmer chance of contracting severe infections and that is for certain,” he added.
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"Vaccines to prevent hospitalization, deaths and transmission" -- Joey, what crystal ball did you consult to make that statement? Even WHO Country Director for the PH would say you are not telling the truth.

You persist in your irrational discrimination policy between the vaxxed and unvaxxed people in the Philippines. Being the #1 lobbyist of discrimination, you and your companies should be the #1 target for discrimination and boycott by the people. No discrimination means that you must demand negative antigen or RT-PCR test to both vaxxed and unvaxxed people. There are many vaxxed people who are intelligent enough to disavow discrimination.

Step back, Joey. Take a deep breath, learn to shut up, perhaps at least one or two days, and read other studies that are beyond your comfort zone.

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