Sunday, October 27, 2024

BWorld 740, Airport modernization and fiscal savings from NAIA privatization

Airport modernization and fiscal savings from NAIA privatization

September 12, 2024 | 12:03 am

 

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2024/09/12/620854/airport-modernization-and-fiscal-savings-from-naia-privatization/

 

This Saturday, Sept. 14, the New NAIA Infra Corp. (NNIC) will take over the upgrading, modernization, operation, and maintenance of the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA). The members of NNIC are San Miguel Holdings Corp., RMM Asian Logistics, Inc., RLW Aviation Development, Inc., and the Incheon International Airport Corp.

 

The estimated project cost (as of approval) is P170.6 billion. The main goals of this privatization scheme are to increase airport capacity from 35 million passengers per annum (mppa) to 62 mppa; to increase air traffic movements (ATMs) from 40-42 per hour to 48 ATMs per hour; to deliver internationally benchmarked Minimum Performance Standards and Specifications (MPSS); and to improve passengers and airlines experience and retail options. In the process, it should help improve the Philippines’ attractiveness as a tourism, investment, and trade destination.

 

The concession period is 15 years, from 2024 to 2039, extendable for another 10 years so long as the NNIC is able to fulfill its obligations or at least not be in flagrant violation of the Concession Agreement on the 8th anniversary of the signing date.

 

This is a beautiful scheme. On the government side, lots of work was done by the Department of Transportation (DoTr) which focused on infrastructure and regulatory aspects. But equally important work was contributed by the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Center, headed by Executive Director Cynthia C. Hernandez.

 

They facilitated and complemented the work of DoTr, plus ensured the delivery of internationally benchmarked MPSS. They facilitated and monitored the implementation of the signed concession agreement between the parties, helped mobilize private sector resources and expertise for the modernization and capacity expansion of NAIA, spearheaded the project’s feasibility and financial structuring (such as defining the terms of concession periods, revenue sharing, and financial models) and coordinated the project through various stages — including the submission to the Investment Coordination Committee, obtaining National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Board approval, overseeing the competitive bidding process, and interacting with reviewing bodies such as the Office of the Government Corporate Counsel and the Office of the Solicitor General.

 

 

The economic team — NEDA as mother agency of the PPP Center, and Finance and Budget departments — also contributed via policy guidance, fiscal incentives, and related policies.

 

The PPP Center shepherded the DoTr and MIAA through the PPP process, especially with recent policy changes, so that the processes were in line with the then Build Operate Transfer (BOT) Law and its Implementing Rules and Regulations (IRR). Since the procurement process commenced in August 2023, the bidding rules followed were in accordance with the BOT Law and the Revised 2022 IRR. Note that the NAIA PPP Project’s Concession Agreement already implements the new PPP Code as its governing law.

 

I was wondering if this scheme is unique in the Philippines. The PPP Center clarified that the modality of NNIC is consistent with many other international airports that operate under similar PPP models. Examples include the London Heathrow Airport and Sydney Airport where private companies took on airport operation, management, modernization and maintenance responsibilities, sharing revenues with the government.

 

The government’s share from this scheme is substantial, starting with an upfront P30-billion payment to the government, a P2 billion annual guaranteed payment, and a share from gross revenues (see Table 1).

 


I am interested in public finance, and how taxpayers and even non-users of the airport can benefit via the unburdening from more borrowings. I computed the savings by the government both in principal and interest payments, from 2024 to 2028. My estimate is that there will be P158 billion in savings from the principal (as this amount will not be borrowed), plus P9.8 billion from foregone interest payments because we will not borrow this amount (see Table 2).

 


Congratulations, DoTr, PPP Center, NEDA, Department of Finance and Department of Budget and Management. Thank you, SMC and other members of the NNIC.

 

As there is more modernization of the Philippines, there will be more growth and job creation, and sustained high growth. Little by little, project by project, we should stay on track in this direction.

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Ukraine war 8, Rise in Europe defense spending; Mideast war

See the spike in Europe defense spending since 2022.



 

Exactly what Raytheon, Lockheed, Northrop, Boeing etc wanted.

 

China and India could be laughing at them that signed a border peace deal with each other last Oct. 23 at the BRICS Summit in Russia. Peace, no border war with neighbor. While EU is involved with prolonged proxy war with neighbor Russia. Many EU cannot even produce their own oil and gas, they want to produce more battle tanks.


NATO was created to counter USSR and Warsaw pact. In 1991, both USSR and Warsaw pact have ceased, they were disbanded. But NATO never disbanded, expanded instead. Right at Russia border with Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania as NATO members.

 

Like US invasion of Iraq to secure its oil and gas, US invasion and occupation of oil-gas rich regions of Syria, the US' Blackrock and other big companies may be salivating at huge oil-gas-coal-metals reserves of Russia. A regime change project in Russia is designed but they are failures so far


MidEast war

 

Under Biden-Harris, there are big wars – Ukraine-Russia, Israel vs Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iran; Red Sea became a mini battle ground, etc. And big war preparations vs China over Taiwan. Halfway around the globe just to have a new war.

 

The Yom kippur war in 1973 was bad, practically all Arab countries in the Mideast+ N.Africa joined in the anti Israel war. Then the Lebanon Israel war in 1982. Nonetheless no regional war after that, until the US invaded Iraq in 2003. This greatly destabilized the Mideast again because  the US is a big invader occupier. Then US invasion of Syria in 2014.


From 2017-2020, no new US war anywhere in the world under Trump. He wanted to pull out US troops in Syria, Iraq, stop endless wars and occupations, regime change abroad. But deep state operatives always have ways to continue the occupation. So Trump went for easy Israel peace path, the Abraham Accords. Israel at formal peace arrangements with UAE, Bahrain, Jordan. Other Arab countries under negotiations, then his term ended.

 

Biden in the WH, new wars just sprout around the world incl the ongoing war Israel vs Palestine Lebanon Houthis/Yemen Syria.

 

If one seeks war even implicitly, one will get it. There should be explicit, categorical, openly stated of No New War policy. 

 

The US military industrial complex, better yet the MICMATT (military, industrial, Congress, media, academe, think tanks) is corrupt.


Invade occupy Vietnam for 1+decade, to protect democracy?

Invade Grenada, Somalia etc. Invade Afghanistan, Iraq for 2 decades, to protect democracy?

Invade Syria for 1 decade now, to protect democracy?

Regime change in Libya, in Ukraine 2014, to protect democracy?

Proxy war in Ukraine, proxy war in Israel, to protect democracy?

Planning a big war in Taiwan, to protect democracy?

 

They better stay in US soil, get super rich and buy all the oil-gas-metals from abroad that they want because they have plenty of money.

Meanwhile, the war rent seekers in the PH demand a P2 trillion proposed AFP procurement on top of regular AFP annual budget. It was not proposed during 2017-2020. It just props out under  Biden administration.

If Trump wins next month, the US "war" with CN will be over trade and investment, war over IPR enforcement. Not war with missiles and bombs. And China is scared over this kind of war
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BWorld 739, PhilHealth’s dependence on the alcohol-tobacco tax, the Philippines Phillips curve

PhilHealth’s dependence on the alcohol-tobacco tax, the Philippines Phillips curve

September 10, 2024 | 12:02 am


My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2024/09/10/620204/philhealths-dependence-on-the-alcohol-tobacco-tax-the-philippines-phillips-curve/ 


The use of the excess and idle funds of the Philippine Health Insurance Corp. or PhilHealth continue to be discussed in the country.

 

See these five recent reports in BusinessWorld: “DoF: Tapping GOCC funds keeps inflation from new taxes in check” (Sept. 5); “PhilHealth urged to increase benefits, suspend rate hike” (Sept. 8, a call by the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry or PCCI); “Junk PhilHealth petition, SC told” (Sept. 8, a call by the Office of the Solicitor General); “PHL government urged to impose new taxes to fund health programs for poor” (Sept. 8, a call by the Action for Economic Reforms or AER); and “Patronage politics has caused the loss of health insurance coverage for millions of Filipinos” (Sept. 9, a “Yellow Pad” column by Juan Antonio Perez III).

 

Last week, in this column (“Sectoral parochialism vs fiscal realism, the case of the PhilHealth idle funds,” Sept. 5), I wrote that “the health sector has shown itself as being addicted to the gambling fund, the alcohol and tobacco tax fund, while at the same time lambasting alcohol and tobacco products. This is double talk and lacking intellectual honesty.”

 

Let us look at PhilHealth’s dependence on “sin tax” revenues. In 2021, total excise tax collection was P317.67 billion, of which 84% came from alcohol and tobacco taxes alone. In 2023, the total excise tax collection was P293 billion, of which 83% came from alcohol and tobacco taxes. A big portion of this goes to PhilHealth as the government’s subsidy for non-paying PhilHealth members like indigents and senior citizens.

 

Recently, tobacco tax revenues declined significantly, from P176 billion in 2021, to P160 billion in 2022, and only P135 billion in 2023. This is a direct result of higher tobacco tax rates, from P50/pack in 2021, to P55/pack in 2022, P60/pack in 2023, and P63/pack in 2024. Legal tobacco has become more expensive and illicit or smuggled tobacco has become more attractive with its retail price only around P45/pack vs legal tobacco’s cheapest at around P110/pack.

  

Alcohol tax revenue shows a consistent increase, mainly because it is more difficult, as it is bulkier, to produce and sell illicit or smuggled beer, gin, or brandy, than illicit tobacco.  I think actual tobacco tax revenues in 2024 will decline further to only around P120 billion. Why?

 

The actual excise tax collections (there is no breakdown by products) from January-July this year was only P167.48 billion, which is lower than the P174.68 billion collected in January-July 2023, which was in turn lower than the P180.46 billion collected in January-July 2022.

 

So, with the significant decline in tobacco tax and overall excise tax revenues in 2023, the projected budget for PhilHealth would decline from P100 billion in 2023 to P61 billion in 2024, and P74 billion in 2025 (see table).

 

 

Again, the Department of Finance (DoF) is correct in tapping the excess PhilHealth funds to finance certain projects under the unfunded appropriations. Not only because it avoids having to borrow anew and pay high interest payments, but also because it means the health sector from high dependence on alcohol and tobacco taxes while labeling the same as “sin, harmful, unhealthy” products.

 

The NGOs that double down on their lobbying for even higher tobacco tax rates are wrong and they seem to be the unintended big allies of the smugglers, terror organizations, and criminal gangs that are in the business of illicit tobacco. Because as legal tobacco becomes more expensive with higher taxes, cheap illegal tobacco becomes more attractive and more profitable for these criminal gangs and their protectors in government. The DoF’s tax revenue for each pack of illicit products sold on the market is zero. 

 

Mr. Perez made several allegations against the DBM in his column, like “For 2025, DBM (the Department of Budget and Management) must explain why it has recommended a reduction of indirect contributors from 25,229,037 to 14,157,910.”

 

In a Facebook post by the DBM on Sept. 7, they said that the “DBM recommended the coverage of 21.1 million beneficiaries and it was Congress (that) reduced the recommended budget of [PhilHealth] in the FY 2024 GAA [General Appropriations Act] to P61.5 billion… The revised number of target beneficiaries of 10,626,874 (exclusive of PAMANA) came from the [PhilHealth] itself, not from DBM, given their reduced budget level in the FY 2024 GAA.”

 

So the claim that the DBM recommended 14.2 million beneficiaries was an error since the DBM actually recommended 21.1 million beneficiaries. See also this report in Philippine Star, “DBM debunks ‘fake news’ claiming 30 million Filipinos to lose PhilHealth coverage” (Sept. 8).

 

THE PHILIPPINES’ PHILLIPS CURVE

 

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) last week released the inflation rate for August, and it was low at only 3.3%. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for July increased to 4.7%.

 

One concept in Economics that relates to the jobs market and consumer prices is the Phillips Curve, developed by New Zealand economist William Phillips. It states that inflation and unemployment have an inverse relationship, that higher inflation is associated with lower unemployment and vice versa.

 

The curve itself is downward sloping. I plotted the Philippines’ inflation rate and unemployment rate from 1990-2023, or over 34 years. It seems that the inverse relationship between the two is confirmed in 24 out of the 34 years. The 10 years that were exceptions were 1991, 1998, and 2000 when both inflation and unemployment were going up, and 1992, 1993, 1999, 2006, 2007, 2015, and 2024 when both inflation and unemployment were going down (see the chart).

 

 

In cases where policies to produce low unemployment can lead to higher inflation, I would prefer to see this. So long as people have jobs, or they can shift from low-paying to higher-paying jobs, they can adjust to higher consumer prices.
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My girls' birthday notes, poem from a friend

Three days ago I became older another year. My two girls wrote me short letters, and a friend in "Oplas Perspectives" viber group wrote me a poem. I love them all, am reposting them here. Thank you, mga anak, thank you Dan.
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October 24

Happy birthday dad, thank you for taking care of me and Ate Elle and always trying to do what's best for us, you're very committed to the things that you wish to achieve and I admire that. I always remember you as the always goofy and laughing dad who loves to make jokes and have fun at parties and for helping me all these years.

 

-- Bien Mary (14 yo)

 

Dear papa,

 

I just want to thank you for being my dad, it may not always be obvious but I genuinely appreciate everything you have done for us. I appreciate the times you put the effort to drive me and Bien to the places we need to go to even if you are tired. I appreciate the times when you buy us snacks after a long day. I appreciate that even at the end of the day we are both still your little princesses. It is through the little things that you do that show how much you care about us and I love you for that. 

 

I will do my best to become a capable adult once I graduate college so that I can learn to stand on my own and become the person you knew I could become. You are a very smart and capable person who has taught me so many important lessons throughout my life. You inspire me to become a better version of myself day by day. I hope you continue to enjoy your life despite the stresses of work. I know it can be very tough but both me and Bien love you very much!

 

-- Elle Marie (18 yo)

 

October 25


A poem for Noy Oplas

 

A mastermind, a wordsmith, and a guiding light,

Noy Oplas, a polymath, shining bright.

From UP's hallowed halls, to perspectives grand,

Economics, philosophy, and politics, at his command.

 

With Marxist, Keynesian, and Trotskyist insight,

He navigates the complexities, of day and night.

Trumpism's twists and turns, he astutely decodes,

Unraveling mysteries, with expertise abodes.

 

Energy expert, health analyst, and speaker sought,

His wisdom echoes, in every economic thought.

Advocating peace, growth, and governance lean,

A visionary leader, for a brighter scene.

 

But beyond the realms, of intellect and fame,

Lies a heart that beats, for love and family's name.

A devoted father, with a gentle hand,

Guiding his loved ones, through life's shifting sand.

 

Music's melodies, of yesterday's charm,

Bring solace to his soul, dispelling alarm.

And beer's rich flavors, a connoisseur's delight,

Savoring moments, in the evening's warm light.

 

Here's to you, Noy Oplas, on your special day,

May wisdom, love, and joy, forever find their way.

May your perspectives, continue to inspire,

And your heart remain, full of love and fire.

 

Happy birthday, Noy! May your year ahead,

Be filled with knowledge, laughter, and love unsaid.

 

-- Dan Agustin

Saturday, October 26, 2024

BWorld 738, Sectoral parochialism vs fiscal realism, the case of the PhilHealth idle funds

Sectoral parochialism vs fiscal realism, the case of the PhilHealth idle funds

September 5, 2024 | 12:02 am

 

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2024/09/05/618289/sectoral-parochialism-vs-fiscal-realism-the-case-of-the-philhealth-idle-funds/

 

Sectoral parochialism is a limited outlook focused only on the favorite sector of certain groups of people. Only their sector is very important, the others are less important. Hence, more public resources should be poured into their sector and less funding be given to the others as much as possible.

 

Fiscal realism is having a broader outlook on the overall economic and social sectors of a country with a realistic view that fiscal resources are limited while public wants are unlimited. Thus, based on Constitutional provisions or dominant values of the people in a particular period, fiscal resources are reallocated accordingly.

 

I made up these definitions myself as I realized there are no existing definitions when I checked the search engines like Google, Bing and Yahoo.

 

So sectoral parochialism is present in all sectors and sub-sectors of the economy. Those in the education sector, police, and local governments sector, defense and military sector, social welfare sector, health sector, agriculture sector, and so on will argue that their sectors must get more of the budget every single year.

 

Department and agency’s annual budget preparation get inputs from local government units through the various regional development councils. Civil society organizations (CSO) and non-government organizations (NGO) input are also considered. For instance, there is a big NGO network called the Alternative Budget Initiative (ABI) with sectoral clusters. The Department of Health (DoH) holds an “Annual Consultative Meeting with CSOs on Budget Proposal” and this is participated by Health cluster NGOs and held usually in early February of each year.

 

Since it is nearly impossible that people will not insert their biases and sectoral or political interests when given the chance to propose budget spending, then it is safe to assume that there is “LGUs pork” by elected mayors and governors, and “NGOs pork” by self-appointed people’s representative CSOs. These leaders may not accept the term but that is part of the annual process of budget preparations before the proposed budget is submitted to Congress by late July to mid-August.

 

In a sense, Congress (the House and Senate) come in late with budget insertions or “Congressional pork,” but they do make the ultimate decision over which of the projects and programs funding submitted by agencies will be retained, increased, or cut.

 

PHILHEALTH IDLE FUNDS


A number of columnists continue to criticize the Department of Finance (DoF) for its decision to tap the P90 billion in so-called idle or excess funds of the Philippine Health Insurance Corp. (PhilHealth) to fund some unprogrammed appropriations like foreign-assisted projects, government infrastructure, and social programs, payment of personnel benefits, etc.

 

The usual arguments against this move by the DoF and the economic team (including the Department of Budget and Management and the National Economic and Development Authority) are the following:

 

1. If those projects are indeed vital and crucial for economic growth, Congress should have prioritized them and included them among the programmed appropriations with regular funding and not put them among the unprogrammed appropriations with unprogrammed funding.

 

2. The integrity of our social health insurance should be protected so its funding should not be diminished and used for other sectors. (This is the standard sectoral parochialism argument.)

 

3. Instead of including more of Congress’ pork projects in programmed appropriations that bump off funding for some important programs, the DoF should call out the legislators instead for diverting PhilHealth funds for unprogrammed appropriations.

 

4. PhilHealth’s excess funds will qualify only as “idle” funds once we have already achieved universal healthcare (UHC) in the country, implying 100% health insurance coverage and, by extension, having out-of-pocket expenditures (OOPE) for healthcare reduced to the minimum if not eliminated.

 

As discussed in this column last week, “PhilHealth’s idle funds and health spending in Asia” (Aug. 27), the four points and related arguments have become predictable, repetitive, and unconvincing. And here are the reasons why.

 

On point one, even excluding the unprogrammed appropriations, excluding Congressional pork, the programmed budget deficit as submitted to Congress is already big — it was P1.50 trillion in 2023 and P1.36 trillion in 2024 — because of sectoral parochialism plus LGU pork and NGO pork.

 

On point two, members’ contributions (from P106 billion to P158 billion from 2021 to 2023) will not be used elsewhere, they will go to members’ benefit claims (from P85 billion to P153 billion in 2021 to 2023). It is the money from gamblers and bettors (portions of the remittances from the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp. or PAGCOR and the Philippine Charity Sweepstakes Office or PCSO), plus money from drinkers and smokers of legal products (portions of the alcohol and tobacco tax revenues), which average around P80 billion/year over the same period, that are being tapped for the unprogrammed appropriations.

 

On point three, LGU pork, NGO pork, and Congressional pork have become realities in our annual budget. It is difficult to quantify how much the pork for each of these three groups is because they are embedded in each agency and department. And it is not good to single out one while giving the other pork a pass.

 

On point four, 100% UHC coverage is a pipedream, an illusion that even very rich countries like Singapore and Japan cannot attain until today. For instance, in 2021, OOPE per capita in Singapore was $893 in current or nominal values and $1,429 in purchasing power parity (PPP) values, which are already 10 times and 6.5 times larger than Philippines. Yet Singapore has a UHC service coverage index (SCI) of only 89, same as South Korea, never 100% (see the table).

 


Even in theory, UHC will never happen. Even if the UHC budget is P1 trillion or P2 trillion/year out of the P6-trillion total budget, it will not be enough. Why?

Because whenever a service is free, demand will always be larger than supply, 100%. Just a mild fever and some people will demand hospital confinement — anyway, the UHC fund has a trillion pesos. A patient that has recovered after two- or three-days confinement will demand to stay for several days more, anyway it is at zero cost to them. And hospitals, physicians and other professionals will accommodate this kind of patient and raise their fees — the UHC fund is in the trillions of pesos anyway.

 

What forced UHC and health socialism will achieve is not 100% coverage but 100% fiscal collapse. The government debt stock to fund very costly UHC will keep rising to the stratosphere and debt servicing for principal plus interest will be at the lower layer troposphere.

 

With the persistent opposition to the reallocation of PhilHealth’s “idle funds” for other sectors even for a single year, the health sector has shown itself as being addicted to the gambling fund, the alcohol and tobacco tax fund, while at the same time lambasting alcohol and tobacco products. This is double talk and lacking intellectual honesty.

 

I think the public health advocates and lobbyists should thank the DoF because it is helping them to wean themselves away from addiction of gambling tax, alcohol and tobacco tax money.

 

Finally, we should go back to assuming more personal responsibility in running our own lives. Healthcare, education, food are first and foremost a personal and parental responsibility, secondarily a government responsibility. And fiscal realism should prevail over sectoral parochialism.

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Fiscal Irresponsibility 37, On the $14 billion/day increase in US public debt

See the latest data on US public debt. This October alone, weeks before the Presidential elections, average increase of $14.3 billion/day.


https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny


US fiscal and monetary leaders always argue that the US will never default on its debt because the US government can always print more dollars to pay its obligations, the US debt is denominated in its own currency.

Maybe, but maybe not. They may have civil war someday. In fiscal year 2023-24 that ended last Sept 30 2024, US interest payment alone was $882 B, larger than defense spending, first time. As interest payment eats bigger share of the budget, social security and health spending will suffer, people will rebel.
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BWorld 737, The Meralco CSP, cheap coal, and the Amcham forum

The Meralco CSP, cheap coal, and the Amcham forum

September 3, 2024 | 12:02 am


My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2024/09/03/617538/the-meralco-csp-cheap-coal-and-the-amcham-forum/ 


Last week, on Aug. 27, Meralco opened the bid documents given by six bidders for its 600-MW competitive selection process (CSP) for baseload capacity. The winners were SMC’s Masinloc Power for 500 MW and Aboitiz Power’s GNPD for 100 MW with all-in rates of P5.60/kWh and P5.74/kWh, respectively. Both are coal plants, and they can again deliver cheap electricity below Meralco’s reserved price for levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) set at P7.26/kWh. The consumers win, they are protected from higher prices by other bidders.

 

Jose Ronald Valles, Meralco Senior Vice-President and Regulatory Management Head, said in a press statement that “The main objective of the CSP, which is to secure the least cost supply for our customers, has been achieved. We hope that there will be no further delays as we work towards immediate signing of the PSAs (power supply agreements) resulting from the 600-MW CSP. We trust that ERC (Energy Regulatory Commission) evaluation and approval will also be swift so customers can enjoy these very low rates upon scheduled delivery date in August 2025.”

 

I hope there will be no temporary restraining order (TRO) from any court, an ugly business strategy resorted to by losing companies who cannot provide cheap energy to the consumers. BusinessWorld reported on the concluded CSP for 600 MW and the forthcoming 400 MW: “Meralco: SMC, Aboitiz units offer lowest rates for 600-MW supply” (Aug. 28), and “Six firms eye Meralco’s 400-MW contract” (Aug. 30).

 

Some left-leaning groups made noise as usual. Bayan Muna leader Carlos Zarate, for example, criticized the outcome of the Meralco CSP because “dirty coal wins.” These people have poor comprehension of energy economics, for three reasons.

 

First, a CSP is about price selection (the lowest), not climate or environmental selection, not imported vs domestic gas selection. Secondly, cheaper electricity is pro-people and pro-consumer, and real NGOs should praise it. Only fake NGOs will attack it. And third, the dirtiest energy is not coal but candles, kerosene torch, and diesel gensets for lighting, and animal dung or firewood for cooking.

 

Countries with high coal consumption tend to have lower inflation than countries with declining coal use. The clearest examples are Asian countries, like China whose coal generation went from 3,234 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2010 to 5,754 TWh in 2023, and whose average inflation rate of 3% in 2006-2014 went down to 1.7% in 2015-2023. India, Indonesia, Vietnam, and other Asian nations exhibited the same trend.

 

In contrast, the G7 industrial, decarbonization- and net zero-obsessed countries have had a decline in coal use and rising inflation rates over the same period. Outside the G7, Russia, South Africa, and Australia also showed the same trend as the Asian nations (see the table).

 


There are many other factors why the inflation rate is rising or falling in certain countries and the energy technology being used is only one of them. But the use of cheap, reliable, and higher energy dense coal (and gas and nuclear power) than intermittent renewables is an important factor that contributes to lower inflation.

The result of the Meralco CSP for 600-MW baseload is consistent with the desire of most Filipinos who look at high inflation as their number one concern — also consistent with a global trend that high coal-using countries have declining consumer prices.

 

Last week I attended the American Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines (AmCham) 7th Annual Energy Forum held at Marriott Manila with the theme, “Powering an Efficient and Progressive Future in the Philippine Energy Industry.” The keynote speakers were Senators Mark Villar and Sherwin Gatchalian (who gave a virtual speech), Congressman Mark Cojuangco, ERC Chairperson Monalisa Dimalanta, and the President of the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) Richard Nethercott.

 

Among the familiar faces I saw there were Eleonore C. Rupprecht and Guy Boileau, Counsellors and Trade Commissioners of the Canadian Embassy. The embassy organized the Philippines Nuclear Trade Mission to Canada last March of which I was one of the participants, along with Ms. Dimalanta, Energy and Science officials, local media and local energy companies.

 

In the morning panel session, “Energy Supply Mix: Updates, Challenges, and Opportunities on the Non-renewable Energy Sector in the Philippines,” I liked the position on energy security stated by Don Paulino, Chief Engineering and Projects Officer of AboitizPower Thermal Group. He said that while they aim for 50% of their portfolio to be renewable, they also “want a stable, affordable, and sustainable baseload, which can support the intermittency of our renewable sector, that our current baseload is running efficiently so that we can have stable power whilst waiting for the newer technologies. We’ve seen it in the grid, if a large power plant trips, you can see the spike in prices.”

 

The Executive Director of the Philippine Nuclear Research Institute (PNRI), Dr. Caloy Arcilla, was also on the same panel and he correctly pointed out the need for nuclear power to be in the country’s energy mix because it is cheap, stable, and safe. Mr. Cojuangco in his speech argued for large nuclear plants with a capacity of 16,000 MW by 2045.

 

In the afternoon panel session on renewable energy and energy efficiency, I like the point made by Meralco Chief Operating Officer Ronnie Aperocho who said that they are going to nuclear energy to help strengthen the country’s energy security. On the speakers pushing for offshore wind, I do not believe that this energy source can deliver cheap electricity without heavy subsidies — aside from spoiling the beauty of the open sea with those tall industrial wind towers.

 

Meanwhile, the ERC issued the “Omnibus Rules on Consumer Choice Programs in the Retail Electricity Market” on Aug. 14. The rules include a limitation for retail electricity suppliers (RES) to contract only up to 50% of their power needs from affiliate generation companies (gencos). I think this is wrong because RES customers constitute a competitive market, not a captive market.  Customers are better protected when the RES is genco-owned because it does not rely on outside purchased power and can withstand price spikes and still serve their customers.
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Free Trade 73, Trade diversion as consequence of zero or high tariffs

One big mistake by many economic analysts is that they think trade and investments are static. A big economy raises import tariffs and they think that world trade will be adversely affected. Like this article, https://asiatimes.com/2024/10/trump-win-potential-puts-asia-on-a-tariff-ied-edge/.

 

No. To be affected only will be companies in China exporting to the US. Companies in CN exporting to PH, TH, VN, SG etc won't be affected.

 

Trade diversion will likely happen and it'll be in favor of other countries. Like a CN company exporting laptops to US at $500 each. Plus long distance shipping plus high tariffs and sell low vol due to higher price.

 

That company would better export the same laptop to ASEAN countries, sell at $480 due to shorter shipping cost, low tariffs, and sell high volume due to lower price. Then consumers in ASEAN, etc will be better off with higher competition, higher volume of laptops in the market.

 

Trade is never static. Trade will flow less in countries with high tariff and non tariff barriers. Trade will flow more to countries with low trade barriers.

 

The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) that Trump killed it in his 1st week in office in January 2017 by making the US leave the partnership. The other countries were hoping that they could have easier access to US markets via TPP, they didn't pursue the TPP on their own despite all the praises they heaped on it. So it seems that Trump was correct in leaving the TPP.

 

Trade diversion, US buying from PH exports would rather buy VN or MY exports because they are members of TPP. I think Dr. Clarete of UPSE made a study about the threats of "trade diversion" that's why there were PH business lobby at the US embassy to invite the PH.

 

if TPP was indeed a good trade arrangement, the remaining members should have implemented it among themselves minus the US. But since most if not all of them want bigger access to US markets as primary motive, then the motivation was no longer there.


Comparing the Regional Comprehensive Econ. Partnership (RCEP) vs TPP,

1. RCEP has all 10 ASEAN countries as members, TPP only four -- VN, MY, SG, Brunei

2. RCEP has no Mexico, Chile and Canada, TPP has those 3.

3. RCEP has CN and KR, TPP no.

RCEP and TPP are 2 different alliances with few common countries

 

One of the funniest episodes in the G7 summit on June 2018, while people were attacking Trump as protectionist, he challenged all the 6 other leaders to -- zero tariff, zero barrier, zero (export) subsidy. https://funwithgovernment.blogspot.com/2018/06/free-trade-66-trumps-proposal-of-zero.html

 

The never Trumpers said he was just bluffing. Then the other 6 leaders, Presidents or Prime Ministers of UK, Germany, France, Italy, Canada, Japan, should have called his bluff. But they were all scared -- if not hypocrites -- in abandoning their own protectionism.

 

A month after the G7 summit were "non-protectionist" G7 leaders were scared of abolishing protectionism via zero tariff, EU leaders went to the US. Trump reiterated his challenge -- zero tariff, zero export subsidy US-EU. The German and other EU automakers said yes, ecstatic of zero tariff bet the two. 

https://funwithgovernment.blogspot.com/2018/07/free-trade-67-us-eu-zero-tariff-zero.html.

 

Nonetheless, this didn't happen. EU bureaucrats too insecure to abandon all forms of trade regulations and protectionism, which can make many EU bureaucrats irrelevant and useless

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