A friend, Ateneo de Manila's Economics Professor, Ser Pena-Reyes, posted this chart from Rappler in his fb wall yesterday. I like it.
My immediate reaction -- see in the Expenditures side, Q3 2016 vs Q3 2017, Household consumption is declining this year while Government consumption is rising fast. The Du30 government is spending big time this year, funded by lots of borrowings, to be followed by tax-tax-tax in 2018 and
beyond. Magaleeeng.
Another economist friend, Jun Neri, BPI's chief economist, posted their chart analysis of the Q3 growth, their version on the spending side. Jun said "It
factors in the weight of each sector. Notice how Net Exports (X - M) helped compensate for the
slowdown in HFCE (household consumption)." Good chart, Jun/BPI.
Ser made another chart, below, on the demand side of the GDP growth. Ser noted that "HFCE, GFCE, and capital formation appear to be the main drivers of the
deceleration—an observation that raises some concern regarding growth
sustainability. There is a need to accelerate capital formation in particular,
if we are to shift from consumption-led to investment-led growth."
Growthwise, the slow growth in year 1 of PNoy Aquino government was momentum
from the lousy Gloria Arroyo economy. Likewise, the fast growth in year 1 of the Du30 administration is momentum
from PNoy fast growth era. Besides, while PNoy budget deficit was around P300 B/yr or less, Du30
deficit in year 1, this year, is p600B+. No crisis year yet it borrowed heavily, hence
the high jump in Government consumption growth.
Fiscal responsibility means in financial turmoil or crisis years, government borrows big
time to help propel an economy then have fiscal surplus in non crisis years to pay
some debt. This administration displays big time fiscal irresponsibility of spend-spend-spend, ramp up the deficit and borrowings in non crisis, already fast growth period.
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