Monday, February 04, 2019

Energy 120, US-Russia rivalry in oil-gas dominance

Russia's top exports are fossil fuels - oil gas, coal. Not steel or arms and bombs. These fuels constitute nearly 50% of total exports, $360 B in 2017. So Russia interest is to have a US President who is a softie if not implicit anti-fossil fuels to help "save the planet" like former US President Obama, so that it's main business won't be imperilled. During the campaign period in 2015-16, Trump was explicitly pro fossil fuels, promised to unlock huge US oil and gas reserves. This alone should make him a non-friend of Russia. HR Clinton should fit as a good friend of Russia if elected President as she's also a "planet saviour" like Mr. Obama. Now US President Trump is slowly or hastily limping Russia oil-gas interests.

Some Russia exports data, 2017.

Top exports, $ billion
Top 10 export corps, $ Bill
1. Crude oil 93.3
2. Processed petroleum oils        58.2
3. Coal, solid fuels from coal        13.5
4. Iron/non-alloy steel products (semi-finished)                6
5. Wheat              5.8
6. Aluminum (unwrought)           5.5
7. Petroleum gases         4.7
8. Diamonds (unmounted/unset) 4.7     
9. Sawn wood    4
10. Refined copper, unwrought alloys    3.6
1. Sberbank (regional bank): 470.9
2. Gazprom (oil, gas): 316.8
3. Rosneft (oil, gas): 214.2
4. LukOil (oil, gas): 92
5. Surgutneftegas (oil, gas): 74.5
6. Transneft (oil services, equipment): 50.5
7. Novatek (oil, gas): 18.9
8. Norilsk Nickel (diversified metals, mining): 16.6
9. Uralkali (specialized chemicals): 9
10. Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel (iron, steel): 7.9

And the NYT, Clinton News Network (CNN), Wapo, etc have successfully fooled many people of Russia-Russia drama why their dearly beloved HRC lost. From only 8.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) US oil output in end-2016 (Obama period), now it's 11.9 or almost 12 mbpd, Russia and OPEC are unhappy.

About 6 years from now, US oil output is projected to be 2x the current one, up to 24 mbpd. So world oil prices will stabilize at low levels -- exactly what Russia and OPEC hate, and exactly what Trump wants.

See also:
Energy 117, Cheap oil and Trump, November 23, 2018 

No comments: