Friday, April 30, 2021

Macroecon 2, Modest growth in Q1 2021, some Asian countries

As of today, four East Asian countries have reported their First Quarter 2021 GDP. Singapore and S. Korea have modest growth, China has very fast recovery bordering on being dishonest.

The US reported yesterday its Q1 GDP, a 0.4% growth. Its Q1 to Q4 2020 GDP change were 0.3%, -9.0%, -2.8%, -2.4%, respectively. 

The Philippines will report its Q1 GDP on May 11. I think it's in the -3% to -5%. Its Q1 to Q4 2020 GDP contraction were -0.7%, -16.9%, -11.4%, -8.3%, respectively.

The PH indefinite lockdown is ugly even in the fiscal sector.  

1. Revenues keep falling, 2020 to Q1 2021, esp March.

2. Expenditures keep rising, 2020 to Q1 2021, esp March.

3. Deficit 2020 is 2x of 2019, 2021 looks going to P1 trillion + again.

4. Financing or new borrowings 2020 P2.5 trillion, nearly 3x of 2019; Q1 2021 nearly half of full year 2020 already.

5. Taxes, fees, fines, penalties, by 2022 and beyond will rise through the roof.

6. Household Consumption and private Investments heavily crippled, only govt is expanding.

Salaries, allowances, bonuses, etc in govt are given 100% despite the huge jobs and income losses in the private sector.

Source: Bureau of Treasury, DOF.

Meanwhile, many doctors said "the extended MECQ is good/welcome development". I posted this in our UPSEAA  group: 

With due respect to doctors, when their advise like "MECQ is welcome devt" becomes econ policy, the implications are bad. MECQ means closure of all restos which have no open air section. The physician economists decide which businesses can open and which ones shd go bankrupt. The physician economists say that the estimated P14.7B per week of wage and income losses are good and welcome devt so long as their sectoral advice is followed. The physician economists argued in early March 2020 "2 weeks lang" lockdown. The 2 weeks became 58 weeks and then another 2 weeks in May 2021. Which can become another 2 or 12 months.

See also: 
The corruption in poverty, climate and virus over-spending, December 26, 2020 
High ICOR and build-build-build, January 15, 2021 
The Constitution and FDIs, February 16, 2021 
Macroecon 1, Household debt to GDP ratio, March 23, 2021.

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