EFN Asia 65, Asian cafe on climate change, Conference 2015

I forgot to post this earlier, my talking points when I hosted one of the "Asian Café" on climate change, EFN Asia Conference 2015 in Bhutan.

I don't have any picture during the small group discussion, here with FNF Regional Director for E and SE Asia, Siggi Herzog, and SWS' Mahar Mangahas.

------------

Asian Cafe, Questions to be tackled:

1. How does climate change (CC) manifest itself affecting people, economies and happiness?

2. What does current evidence and projections say about the future?

3. What are some existing successful responses to ensure resilience and adapt to changes, particularly from economic development point of view?

Introduction: the Philippines

(a) The Philippines is the 12^th biggest country in the world in terms of population size, 101 million people, July 2015.

(b) Archipelago, 7,100+ islands and islets.

Lots of active and inactive volcanoes. And earthquakes too, average of around 3 EQs a day, though mostly too mild to be felt only by seismographs, or they happen under the sea.

(c) Capital is Metro Manila, composed of 17 cities, with estimated population of almost 13 million. During weekdays, this bloats to around 16 million as students and workers from neighboring provinces and cities flock to the big city.

1. How does CC manifest itself affecting people and economies and happiness?

After experiencing some huge storms and very wet conditions in recent years due to the last La Nina, we currently experience a big El Nino that affects the Philippines and other countries in the tropics. So we expect drought conditions in the dry months of December-May. But it is not the “Godzilla” of El Nino as reported in many papers, rather comparable to the other big El Nino in 1997-98.

  

In a global survey on the Question,

“Which of these issues is the most important for [COUNTRY] today? (HEALTH CARE/ EDUCATION/CRIME/ THE ENVIRONMENT/ IMMIGRATION/ THE ECONOMY/ TERRORISM/ POVERTY/ NONE OFTHESE/ CAN’T CHOOSE)”

Percent selecting and rank of environment (2010),

Source: TOM W. SMITH, NORC/University of Chicago. “Global Environmental Change across

Countries and Time, 1993-2010”, Presented at the 2013 Research Session of the ISSP Meeting, Santiago, Chile, April 28 to May 1, 2013. Published by the Social Weather Station (SWS), Manila.

So public awareness of climate change is low compared to “gut issues” like healthcare, economy.

2. What does current evidence and projections say about the future?

Current evidence and projections say that we are entering the global cooling phase, after the global warming phase of the last century. CC is natural (nature-made, not man-made), it is cyclical (warming-cooling-warming-cooling).

Source: Dr. Roy Spencer, Senate EPW Hearing: “Climate Change: It’s Happened Before”, July 19th 2013.

3. What are some existing successful responses to ensure resilience and adapt to changes?

Focus on energy, the Philippines is putting up more coal power plants as we have the 2^nd highest electricity prices in Asia next to Japan, because of insufficient power supply and various taxes and charges imposed on electricity. These new coal plants will help expand electricity supply and help reduce electricity prices.

Many big Asian economies rely heavily on coal and natural gas for their electricity needs. In particular, these countries have more than 90% of their total electricity coming from  fossil fuel sources: Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Kazakhstan and Bangladesh.

Electricity production and sources in selected Asian economies, 2012

	Electr. Prodn. (Bill. kWh)	Sources of electricity (% of total)					Fossil fuel % (1+2+3)
		Coal (1)	Nat. gas (2)	Oil  (3)	Hydro (4)	Others (5)
Indonesia	195.9	48.7	23.2	16.7	6.5	4.9	88.6
Thailand	166.6	20.0	70.3	1.5	5.3	3.0	91.8
Malaysia	134.4	41.5	46.6	4.5	6.7	0.7	92.6
Philippines	72.9	38.8	26.9	5.8	14.1	14.4	71.5
Singapore	46.9	--	84.3	13.0	--	3.0	97.3
China	4,994.1	75.8	1.7	0.1	17.5	4.9	77.6
Japan	1,034.3	29.3	38.4	17.5	8.1	6.7	85.2
S. Korea	534.6	44.8	20.9	4.0	1.4	28.9	69.7
Taiwan	250.3	49.9	25.4	3.1	3.4	18.2	78.4
Hong Kong	38.8	70.3	27.3	2.1	--	0.2	99.7
India	1,127.6	71.1	8.3	2.0	11.2	7.4	81.4
Pakistan	96.1	0.1	28.2	35.9	31.1	4.7	64.2
Kazakhstan	91.2	76.1	14.7	0.8	8.4	--	91.6
Bangladesh	49.0	1.8	85.1	11.5	1.6	--	98.4
Bhutan	6.8	--	--	--	--	--	--

Source: International Energy Agency; ADB, Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2015.

-------------

See also:
EFN Asia 62, Program for Conference 2016, Manila, November 20, 2016 
EFN Asia 63, Day 1 of Conference 2016, November 26, 2016 
EFN Asia 64, Day 2 of Conference 2016, February 16, 2017

Business 360-34, Hydropower in Asia

* This  is my article in Business 360, a magazine published monthly in Kathmandu, Nepal, February 2016 issue.
--------------

Hydropower in Asia

Asia being mostly tropical, the potentials of hydro power is big, in mainland Asia in general, and in mountainous countries in particular. Dams of hydro power plants not only serve as storage for electricity production, they also impound huge amount of flash flood that can inundate low-lying areas of a country near the rivers.

The biggest producers of hydro power in Asia in terms of high percentage of hydro dependence are Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar and Vietnam.

I was lucky to visit Nepal and Bhutan in winter months of 2015.  January in Nepal and November in Bhutan. Electricity supply in both countries are very different. While parts of Kathmandu can experience 14 hours or more of black outs or power outages daily in January, the situation is very different in Bhutan as they do not experience black outs during winter.

One reason why this is so is that  Bhutan has only 0.7 million people while Nepal has nearly 28 million people and hence, demand for  electricity is much larger in Nepal than  in Bhutan.

In terms of actual hydro power production, the biggest producers are China, India, and S. Korea. Bhutan and Nepal are not included in this list below.

To help address the severe lack of electricity in Nepal during the winter season  and hence,  reduce the need for generator sets, other factors, the following are suggested.

One, expand the capacities of existing hydro power plants by dredging heavily-silted dams, by improving and  modernizing the turbines.

Two, allow private players to build dams and produce hydro electricity. Government resources will always be insufficient to build such huge structures, but government can facilitate the acquisition of right of  way (ROW) like houses and other  structures that stand on the roads or water reservoir. These must be relocated elsewhere.

Three, encourage multiple use of water in  dams to generate additional revenues. Like fishing and water sports.

Having cheaper and huge, stable energy supply has become more common among many Asian countries now. It is a good development and it should continue.

Governments must give more leeway to market players to flourish and expand, to introduce more innovation. This means reducing the number of bureaucracies, taxes  and  permits. Which will attract more traders and businessmen to do business in the country.

--------------- 

See also:

Business 360 17: Electricity and GDP Growth, April 15, 2014

Business 360 21: Cheap Oil and Nepal, February 20, 2015

Business 360 23: Electricity and Development, March 07, 2015

Business 360-29, Low oil prices and energy development in South Asia, October 25, 2015

Business 360-32, Energy independence in Asia, December 24, 2015

Business 360-33, Cheap energy now and in the future, January 28, 2016

Energy 57, Tony la Vina's anti-coal alarmism, February 06, 2016

Energy 58, Sen. Loren Legarda and renewables, February 27, 2016
Energy 59, Cheap oil and the OFWs, March 07, 2016

Energy 60, PH solar companies, PagIBIG loan for solar, March 12, 2016

EFN Asia 55, Presentation by Tom Palmer in Bhutan 2015

Among the theoretical presentations during the EFN Asia Conference 2015 in Bhutan was made by Tom Palmer of Atlas. Reposting some slides and other discussions, in italics, below.

Happiness and Satisfaction.

Happiness, if understood as joy or contentment, it may be present today and gone tomorrow.

Life satisfaction, on the other hand, seems both more stable and easier to compare across cultures.

“The poor man's son, whom heaven in its anger has visited with ambition, when he begins to look around him, admires the condition of the rich.. ... He thinks if he had attained all these, he would sit still contentedly, and be quiet, enjoying himself in the thought of the happiness and tranquillity of his situation. He is enchanted with the distant idea of this felicity. …. To obtain the conveniencies which these afford, he submits in the first year, nay in the first month of his application, to more fatigue of body and more uneasiness of mind than he could have suffered through the whole of his life from the want of them. … With the most unrelenting industry he labours night and day to acquire talents superior to all his competitors. … he makes his court to all mankind; he serves those whom he hates, and is obsequious to those whom he despises." -- Adam Smith, The Theory of Moral Sentiments

There are some problems with their analysis

• The distinction focuses on broad participation and constraints on power, but constraints need not be participatory, e.g.:

– Independent judiciary

– Independent central bank

– Division of powers, federalism, etc.

• Political institutions can be extractive and broad based at the same time

• The biggest logical problem they miss is that extractive is not the contrary of inclusive; exclusive is the contrary of inclusive

• And the biggest concrete problem they miss is populist cronyism

• Populism promises mass predation on the middle classes, “plutocrats,” or economic minorities

• And inevitably – Results in cronyism and empowered elites

The damage of extractive regimes can be undone, however, with a program of inclusive economic growth

• Democratic and broadbased reforms that make clear promises of shared prosperity can succeed

• Inclusive politically because they are broadbased and pluralistic, &

• Inclusive economically because they “allow and encourage participation by the great mass of people in economic activities” 

Inclusive Growth Requires Economic Freedom and Limited, Effective Government.

--------------

See also:
EFN Asia 51, Draft program, Day 1 of Conference 2015, November 05, 2015 
EFN Asia 52, The 5 fishbowls of economic freedom in Asia, November 20, 2015 
EFN Asia 53, Successful Conference 2015 has ended, November 25, 2015 
EFN Asia 54, On Hong Kong and China, free trade and CEPA, January 27, 2016 

FNF forum with Tom Palmer, July 15, July 23, 2010
UP Forum with Tom Palmer, July 15, July 23, 2010

BWorld 28, Economic freedom in Asia

* This is my article in BusinessWorld last November 25, 2015.

Humanity’s material progress and cultural development is made possible largely due to the freedom of people to initiate innovations that did not exist before and their freedom to buy and sell extra output and services produced by themselves and other people.

In short, economic freedom and freedom to trade are among the cornerstones of human progress. Remove this freedom and innovation and ingenuity will largely be curtailed and human misery and underdevelopment will result.

These are other related issues were tackled in the two-day Economic Freedom Network Asia (EFN Asia) Conferences 2015, here at Taj Tashi hotel in Thimpu, capital city of Bhutan. The event’s theme is “Economic freedom as a way to happiness” and the main sponsors are EFN Asia, QED Group, and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom (FNF).

QED is a private, independent think tank and consulting firm based in Thimphu while FNF is a German political foundation tasked to help conduct economic and political education around the globe about the merits of classical liberalism, lean state, and increased market competition.

EFN Asia was born in 1998 during a conference in Manila discussing how more economic freedom and less government interventions could have anticipated and minimized the financial turmoil that occurred during the “Asian financial crisis” of 1997-1998. Since then, EFN Asia conferences are held yearly in different big cities in the region.

How is economic freedom measured and quantified? Which countries are the most free and least free in economic innovation? What are the implications of such scoring and ranking in economic freedom of countries and economies?

These and related questions are answered by the Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) annual reports, produced by Fraser Institute in Canada, in partnership with FNF (Germany).

The EFW is measured by getting the scores (0 to 10, zero is totally unfree and 10 is full economic freedom) of countries covered on five areas: (1) Size of government, (2) Legal system and property rights, (3) Sound money, (4) Freedom to trade internationally, and (5) Regulation.

As a result, countries with big governments and high taxes get low scores in area (1); countries with highly corrupt legal systems and unstable property rights protection will get low scores in area (2); countries that have high inflation rates and make it difficult for their citizens to own and use other currencies will get low scores in area (3); countries that have low import tariffs, have few non-tariff barriers will get high scores in area (4); and countries with less restrictions and regulations in credit, hiring of labor and few business permits and compliance costs will get high scores in area (5).

The composite score for the five areas covered is generated and countries are ranked from highest to lowest. For Asia, here are some results. (See table)

For many years now, Hong Kong and Singapore are recognized as the two freest economies in the world. They have small and few taxes, their governments enforce the rule of law, and protect property rights. Since they have low or zero import tariff, it is easy and less costly for their exporters and importers to buy and sell goods abroad, and so on. Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea try to follow these policies set by the two freest economies.

The Philippines has been ranking modestly in the 60th to 70th positions in the three years above. It gets high scores in area (1) as it does not have too many transfers and subsidies, have few government enterprises. But the Philippines gets low score in area (2) with scores of only 3 to 4 in sub-areas Judicial independence and impartial courts, other sub-areas.

That presents a big challenge for the Philippine government (and other Asian governments too) and civil society organizations -- nongovernment organizations, media, academe, professional organizations, church groups, and so on: Control or minimize corruption and bribery by having rule of law: the law applies equally; no one is exempted and no one can grant an exemption to penalties set by the laws.

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the head of Minimal Government Thinkers, Inc., and a Fellow of the South East Asia Network for Development (SEANET). Both think tanks are members of EFN Asia.

-----------

See also:
BWorld 24, Traffic and Newton's 3 laws of motion, November 12, 2015 
BWorld 25, Feed in tariff means expensive electricity, November 14, 2015 
BWorld 26, IPRI 2015 in APEC economies, November 19, 2015 

BWorld 27, The rich getting richer, the poor getting middle class, November 21, 2015

EFN Asia 52, The 5 fishbowls of economic freedom in Asia, November 20, 2015 

EFN Asia 53, Successful Conference 2015 has ended, November 25, 2015