Climate Tricks 66, Ignoring the implications of worsening cosmic rays situation

For those who keep believing that global warming and climate change is anthropogenic or man-made, who believe that they can "fight" GW and CC via more government, more UN, more carbon taxes, more renewables cronyism, more climate bureaucracies, more global climate meetings, please widen your mind. Natural or nature-made GW and CC is factual than CO2-is-pollutant-evil drama.

https://www.thegwpf.com/content/uploads/2018/03/SvensmarkLondon2018.pdf

More galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), more cloud cover, more cooling of the planet. Conversely, less GCRs, less clouds, more warming of the planet.

More stories here:

(1) https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/03/05/the-worsening-cosmic-ray-situation/

The Worsening Cosmic Ray Situation

MARCH 5, 2018 / DR.TONY PHILLIPS

March 5, 2018: Cosmic rays are bad–and they’re getting worse.

That’s the conclusion of a new paper just published in the research journal Space Weather. The authors, led by Prof. Nathan Schwadron of the University of New Hampshire, show that radiation from deep space is dangerous and intensifying faster than previously expected….

(2) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017SW001803

Update on the worsening particle radiation environment observed by CRaTER and implications for future human deep‐space exploration*

N. A. Schwadron  F. Rahmanifard  J. Wilson  A. P. Jordan  H. E. Spence  C. J. Joyce  J. B. Blake A. W. Case  W. de Wet  W. M. Farrell  J. C. Kasper  M. D. Looper  N. Lugaz  L. Mays  ... See all authors

First published: 22 February 2018

Abstract

Over the last decade, the solar wind has exhibited low densities and magnetic field strengths, representing anomalous states that have never been observed during the space age. As discussed by Schwadron et al. (2014a), the cycle 23–24 solar activity led to the longest solar minimum in more than 80 years and continued into the “mini” solar maximum of cycle 24. During this weak activity, we observed galactic cosmic ray fluxes that exceeded the levels observed throughout the space age, and we observed small solar energetic particle events. Here, we provide an update to the Schwadron et al (2014a) observations from the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO)….

(3) https://link.springer.com/article/10.3103/S1062873817020411?

Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences: Physics

February 2017, Volume 81, Issue 2, pp 252–254 | Cite as

Cosmic rays, solar activity, and changes in the Earth’s climate

Authors: Y. I. StozhkovEmail authorG. A. BazilevskayaV. S. MakhmutovN. S. SvirzhevskyA. K. SvirzhevskayaV. I. LogachevV. P. Okhlopkov

Proceedings of the 34th All-Russian Conference on Cosmic Rays

First Online: 08 March 2017

Abstract

One of the most important problems facing humanity, global climate change, is discussed. The roles of cosmic ray fluxes and solar activity in this process are analyzed. Although several mechanisms explaining global climate change have been proposed, none of them are firmly grounded. At the United Nations summit in Paris at the end of 2015, it was decided that greenhouse gases are responsible for the global warming of our planet. However, the authors of this work believe the question of what causes global changes in the Earth’s climate remains open, and will obviously be solved once and for all in the next 10–15 years.

(4) https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonconstable/2018/03/13/how-the-suns-activity-could-auger-an-economic-change/#3b7cca5734dc

MAR 13, 2018 @ 09:11 AM

How Activity On The Sun Could Change The Economy

Simon Constable , CONTRIBUTOR

The question is whether we will enter another grand solar minimum just like the Maunder minimum which if history is a guide would mean a period of much colder weather winters and summers. More than a few experts with whom I speak regularly believe that we shall enter such a grand minimum along with the resulting bone-chilling weather.

If that happens, then there will be profound influences on the economy, including possible crop failures and rising energy use for home and workplace heating. Or in other words, expect bigger bills for food and energy. After a period in which the supply of both has been increasingly abundant then this change will likely come as a shock to many people and likely the broader global economy as well.

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See also:
Climate Tricks 63, The search for huge climate money in COP 23, November 26, 2017 
Climate Tricks 64, Bitter cold and snow are caused by AGW, January 06, 2018 
Climate Tricks 65, "Last chance" to save the planet stories, 1992-2018, March 16, 2018

Mining 56, Presentation at Mining PH Conference 2017

Last month during the Mining Philippines Conference 2017, I was one of 6 panel discussants in one focus group discussion.

First I discussed the recent rants vs. open pit mining by ex-DENR Sec. Gina Lopez and why many of her points are wrong or non-sensical at the least. Then I discussed other issues about soil degradation, the coming global cooling and the need for more water catchments like mined-out open pits, then briefly about mining taxes.

Some open pits have become eco-tourism attractions.

My conclusions:

(2) Mined out or decommissioned open pit mines should as much as possible be left as is, not covered with soil then reforested. Multiple purposes: (a) as man-made dam and lake to catch excess water and flash flood, (b) reduce flooding downstream during heavy rains, (c) use the lake water for fishery, irrigation, hydro-power, even possible drinking water source someday, (d) or simply for eco-tourism.

(3) Current mining taxation (incl. royalties, regulatory fees, mandatory contributions) are high and plentiful. Any tax hike like raising mining excise tax from 2% to 10% should be compensated by a cut or abolition of other taxes and fees.

The 16-slides presentation is available here.
Meanwhile, some photos during our panel discussion that afternoon.

Photo credits: Mining Philippines (COMP) fb page.
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See also: 

Mining 53, Cobalt mining for electric cars, August 10, 2017 

Mining 54, Ralph Abainza on water table and Gina Lopez, September 30, 2017 

Mining 55, Kaleidoscope forum by UP MINERS, October 01, 2017

Climate Tricks 61, Hysteria and tantrums over Trump's withrawal from Paris Agreement

Finally, US President Donald Trump has officially dumped the Paris Agreement of 2015. He declared yesterday,

“We will cease honoring all non-binding agreements”, and “will stop contributing to the green climate fund”.

“The bottom line is that the Paris Accord is very unfair to the United States”.

“This agreement is less about climate and more about other countries getting a financial advantage over the United States”.

“The agreement is a massive redistribution of United States wealth to other countries.”

“Compliance with the terms of the Paris accord… could cost America as much as 2.7 million lost jobs by 2025.”

“India makes its participation contingent on receiving billions and billions of dollars in foreign aid.”

“We need all forms of available American energy or our country will be at grave risk of brown-outs and black-outs.”

“Withdrawing is in economic interest and won’t matter much to the climate.”

“We will be environmentally friendly, but we’re not going to put our businesses out of work… We’re going to grow rapidly.”

“Foreign leaders in Europe, Asia, & across the world should not have more to say w/ respect to the US economy than our own citizens.”

“It is time to exit the Paris Accord and time to pursue a new deal which protects the environment, our companies, our citizens.”
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The agreement funds a UN Climate Slush Fund underwritten by American taxpayers

• President Obama committed $3 billion to the Green Climate Fund – which is about 30 percent of the initial funding – without authorization from Congress
• With $20 trillion in debt, the U.S. taxpayers should not be paying to subsidize other countries’ energy

The deal also accomplishes LITTLE for the climate

• According to researchers at MIT, if all member nations met their obligations, the impact on the climate would be The impacts have been estimated to be likely to reduce global temperature rise by less than .2 degrees Celsius in 2100.

When I checked the US stockmarkets yesterday... Did the investors cheer Trump's decision?


I am actually an agnostic about President Trump's policies in many sectors but when it comes to climate and energy policies, I support him. Planet Earth has experienced climate change many times since it was born some 4.6 billion years ago. How can the UN and governments fight something that naturally occurs?

The higher the climate alarmism, the higher the climate extortion becomes. $100 billion/year starting 2020 on top of promised foreign aid to developing. Many governments of developed countries are angry at Trump's decision because they promised a lot, they raised expectations a lot, even if they do not have such big money or cannot squeeze more taxes from their people to give away. They only expected that US taxpayers will shoulder a big portion of such climate extortion. 

Now the annual huge parties and junkets involving thousands of "planet saviours" aka annual UNFCCC meetings will be pared down. No more $ hundreds of millions a year of US taxpayers' money to bankroll their huge parties and junkets.

As expected, lefties' and alarmists' heads blew and hysteria, angst and tantrums were flying anywhere. See a short compilation of such hysteria at WUWT,The craziest reactions to Trump pulling out of the #ParisAgreement

When I posted this subject in my fb wall, one alarmist stranger Cesar Cifra unloaded a series of personal attacks.

This Cifra is a friend of my friend and fellow UPSE alumni Romy Bernardo. I asked for data (like below, last 4,000 years global temp.) and this Cifra responded with ad hominems, what a lousy and low-life mind.

http://www.greenworldtrust.org.uk/Science/Images/Main/Warm_periods.jpg

Anyway, this Trump decision is a big blow to the climate alarmism and global ecological socialism movement. A big blow to the UN and many governments whose revised purpose of existence is to tax-tax-tax their citizens as much as possible to "fight climate change" even if CC has been happening naturally, cyclically, for the past 4.6 B years.
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See also:
Climate Tricks 58, Inability to disprove past global warming precedents, December 16, 2016
Climate Tricks 59, Trump's climate advisor to reverse US government alarmism, January 20, 2017 
Climate Tricks 60, Alarmism by the socialists and global ecological central planners, January 28, 2017

Energy 95, Al Gore's $15-T carbon tax racket

According to the bible of Al Gore, the UN and other groups/individuals, we should be guilty that we are riding cars, jeepneys, buses, motorcycles, airplanes, boats, other machines that use fossil fuels. We should be riding only cows, horses, bicycles, skateboards other things that do not use fossil fuel. We should be guilty that we have 24/7 electricity mainly from base load coal and natgas power plants. Thus, we should send them more money via carbon tax so that they can "save the planet." Nice but not-so-brilliant global robbery scheme.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/a-fools-errand-al-gores-15-trillion-carbon-tax/article/2622479

The purpose of a carbon tax is to make cheaper energy, cheaper transpo, cheaper manufacturing, become expensive. National governments, the UN and Al Gore will get the extra money, trillions of $ of money and they will "save the planet". http://www.carbontax.net.au/category/what-is-the-carbon-tax/

Al Gore, Obama, di Caprio, Richard Branson, etc., they hate fossil-fuel-guzzling airplanes a lot. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/04/20/want-a-green-pass-you-fly-your-own-private-jet-heres-how/

Meanwhile, the WB, IMF, ADB, DOF, etc already made a chorus that petroleum is a "public bad" because our use of cars, buses, boats, motorcycles, airplanes are bad for the environment, so they are raising the excise tax of petrol products by P6/liter across the board. Some legislators are not satisfied with this, they want additional tax on petrol products, coal power plants, etc. to get more money to "save the planet." http://www.philstar.com/science-and-environment/2016/11/10/1642091/carbon-tax-eyed-philippine-polluters

People who are "non-polluters" are those who have zero demand for fossil fuels like petroleum and coal power plants. Like those who live in the caves, those who only ride horses, carabaos, bicycles or just walk/run only. For their trips to far away provinces and countries, they ride flying witches like manananggals that do not use fossil fuels.

The ecological socialists partner with "cap-carbon" capitalists for a multi-trillion dollars robbery of energy consumers. New racket indeed, but it is bound to fail. People hate more expensive energy, more government/UN taxation.

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See also:

Energy 92, Asia retains big coal use, April 07, 2017 

Energy 93, Coal imports in East Asia, April 10, 2017 

Energy 94, Developing Asia's love affair with coal, May 07, 2017 
Al Gore politics in Manila, June 10, 2010 Weekend fun 3: Al Gore cartoons (A), December 04, 2010

EFN Asia 65, Asian cafe on climate change, Conference 2015

I forgot to post this earlier, my talking points when I hosted one of the "Asian Café" on climate change, EFN Asia Conference 2015 in Bhutan.

I don't have any picture during the small group discussion, here with FNF Regional Director for E and SE Asia, Siggi Herzog, and SWS' Mahar Mangahas.

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Asian Cafe, Questions to be tackled:

1. How does climate change (CC) manifest itself affecting people, economies and happiness?

2. What does current evidence and projections say about the future?

3. What are some existing successful responses to ensure resilience and adapt to changes, particularly from economic development point of view?

Introduction: the Philippines

(a) The Philippines is the 12^th biggest country in the world in terms of population size, 101 million people, July 2015.

(b) Archipelago, 7,100+ islands and islets.

Lots of active and inactive volcanoes. And earthquakes too, average of around 3 EQs a day, though mostly too mild to be felt only by seismographs, or they happen under the sea.

(c) Capital is Metro Manila, composed of 17 cities, with estimated population of almost 13 million. During weekdays, this bloats to around 16 million as students and workers from neighboring provinces and cities flock to the big city.

1. How does CC manifest itself affecting people and economies and happiness?

After experiencing some huge storms and very wet conditions in recent years due to the last La Nina, we currently experience a big El Nino that affects the Philippines and other countries in the tropics. So we expect drought conditions in the dry months of December-May. But it is not the “Godzilla” of El Nino as reported in many papers, rather comparable to the other big El Nino in 1997-98.

  

In a global survey on the Question,

“Which of these issues is the most important for [COUNTRY] today? (HEALTH CARE/ EDUCATION/CRIME/ THE ENVIRONMENT/ IMMIGRATION/ THE ECONOMY/ TERRORISM/ POVERTY/ NONE OFTHESE/ CAN’T CHOOSE)”

Percent selecting and rank of environment (2010),

Source: TOM W. SMITH, NORC/University of Chicago. “Global Environmental Change across

Countries and Time, 1993-2010”, Presented at the 2013 Research Session of the ISSP Meeting, Santiago, Chile, April 28 to May 1, 2013. Published by the Social Weather Station (SWS), Manila.

So public awareness of climate change is low compared to “gut issues” like healthcare, economy.

2. What does current evidence and projections say about the future?

Current evidence and projections say that we are entering the global cooling phase, after the global warming phase of the last century. CC is natural (nature-made, not man-made), it is cyclical (warming-cooling-warming-cooling).

Source: Dr. Roy Spencer, Senate EPW Hearing: “Climate Change: It’s Happened Before”, July 19th 2013.

3. What are some existing successful responses to ensure resilience and adapt to changes?

Focus on energy, the Philippines is putting up more coal power plants as we have the 2^nd highest electricity prices in Asia next to Japan, because of insufficient power supply and various taxes and charges imposed on electricity. These new coal plants will help expand electricity supply and help reduce electricity prices.

Many big Asian economies rely heavily on coal and natural gas for their electricity needs. In particular, these countries have more than 90% of their total electricity coming from  fossil fuel sources: Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Kazakhstan and Bangladesh.

Electricity production and sources in selected Asian economies, 2012

	Electr. Prodn. (Bill. kWh)	Sources of electricity (% of total)					Fossil fuel % (1+2+3)
		Coal (1)	Nat. gas (2)	Oil  (3)	Hydro (4)	Others (5)
Indonesia	195.9	48.7	23.2	16.7	6.5	4.9	88.6
Thailand	166.6	20.0	70.3	1.5	5.3	3.0	91.8
Malaysia	134.4	41.5	46.6	4.5	6.7	0.7	92.6
Philippines	72.9	38.8	26.9	5.8	14.1	14.4	71.5
Singapore	46.9	--	84.3	13.0	--	3.0	97.3
China	4,994.1	75.8	1.7	0.1	17.5	4.9	77.6
Japan	1,034.3	29.3	38.4	17.5	8.1	6.7	85.2
S. Korea	534.6	44.8	20.9	4.0	1.4	28.9	69.7
Taiwan	250.3	49.9	25.4	3.1	3.4	18.2	78.4
Hong Kong	38.8	70.3	27.3	2.1	--	0.2	99.7
India	1,127.6	71.1	8.3	2.0	11.2	7.4	81.4
Pakistan	96.1	0.1	28.2	35.9	31.1	4.7	64.2
Kazakhstan	91.2	76.1	14.7	0.8	8.4	--	91.6
Bangladesh	49.0	1.8	85.1	11.5	1.6	--	98.4
Bhutan	6.8	--	--	--	--	--	--

Source: International Energy Agency; ADB, Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2015.

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See also:
EFN Asia 62, Program for Conference 2016, Manila, November 20, 2016 
EFN Asia 63, Day 1 of Conference 2016, November 26, 2016 
EFN Asia 64, Day 2 of Conference 2016, February 16, 2017