Climate Tricks 46, More alarmism --> more climate money expectation --> more disappointment

The main irony of climate alarmism is this. 

1. Top climate activists and UN officials paint very scary, very alarming scenario 100 years away,

2. People and climate activists from developing countries demand more climate money, hundreds of $ billions per year of money (ie, more alarmism, more climate extortion), 

3. Officials from rich countries, their economies already saddled in heavy public debts, resist the huge climate money blackmail,

4. More disappointment, even anger, with deadlocks.

This is repeated yearly in all the past Conference of Parties (COP) meetings by member-governments of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC).

Take this story for instance last December 04, 2015:

“PARIS, France - Angry developing nations warned Thursday that increasingly tense UN talks aimed at averting catastrophic climate change would fail unless a bitter feud over hundreds of billions of dollars was resolved.

Negotiators from 195 nations are haggling in Paris over a planned universal accord to slash greenhouse-gas emissions that trap the Sun's heat, warming Earth's surface and oceans and disrupting its delicate climate system.”

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/world/12/04/15/un-climate-talks-turn-hostile-over-money

Some stories at the end of the COP 21 meeting, December  11, 2015:

"Britain and other rich countries face demands for $3.5 trillion (£2.3 trillion) in payments to developing nations to secure a deal in Paris to curb global warming. Developing countries have added a clause to the latest draft of the text under which they would be paid the “full costs” of meeting plans to cut emissions." http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/environment/article4637269.ece

"The night saw an ugly brawl as US Secretary Of State John Kerry threatened that developed countries would walk out of the agreement if they were asked to commit to differentiation or financial obligations. “You can take the US out of this. Take the developed world out of this. Remember, the Earth has a problem. What will you do with the problem on your own?” he told ministers from other countries during a closed-door negotiation on the second revised draft of the Paris agreement." 

ISSUES THAT HAVE DELAYED AGREEMENT

Should developed countries have a legal obligation to pay for climate change

Should developing countries, that do not have historical responsibility for emissions, also contribute to the fund

Should burden-sharing be based on current economic capabilities or a combination of historical emissions and current economic capabilities

Should the actions of developing countries be linked to the provision of finance and technology or should they be treated at par with developed countries going forward

Should there be a periodic review of delivery of finance and technology by developed world or not

Should the long-term goal be to keep global temperature rise below 1.5 degree by the turn of the century or should it be somewhere between 1.5 degree and 2 degrees

Should poor and vulnerable countries continue to hold the right to file for damages against permanent loss caused to them because of climate change.

http://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/us-threatens-to-walk-out-of-paris-pact-over-financial-obligations-115121100913_1.html

"Reacting to second version of the draft, Adriano Campolina, ActionAid Chief Executive, said, "In the closing hours of the Paris talks we have been presented with a draft deal that denies the world justice.

"By including a clause for no future claim of compensation and liability, the US has ensured people suffering from the disastrous impacts of climate change will never be able to seek the justice owed to them." http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/.../50136956.cms... 

So here are some of the ironies and hypocrisy of climate alarmism movement.

Irony/hypocrisy 1: more alarmism, more extortion for climate money, more anger and disappointent.

Irony/hypocrisy 2: more hatred of fossil fuel, more use of fossil fuel with thousands of airplane flights to reach Paris from tens of thousands of climate negotiators + hangers on.

Irony/hypocrisy 3: many planet saviours hate nuclear power, then they go to France, enjoy uninterrupted electricity while France is the #1 nuke-dependent country in the planet. In 2013, 76% of its total electricity output came from nuke.

Greenpeace irony/hypocrisy very clear. They oppose nuke power, declaring, "End the nuclear age" http://www.greenpeace.org/internati.../en/campaigns/nuclear/

And they are in France, the #1 nuke-dependent country in the planet. The 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th nuke-dependent countries are Ukraine, Sweden, S. Korea and the US, 2012 data. 

Source: International Energy Agency (IEA), 2014 Key World Energy Statistics.

The planet is fine, it does not need self-proclaimed "planet saviours" and just undergoing the old and tested climate cycle of warming-cooling-warming-cooling, endlessly, with or without humans and their SUVs. 

The planet's inhabitants though need to be spared and saved from those climate charlatans whose goal in spreading climate alarmism is more government, more global ecological and energy central planning. Alarmism now simply digs its own contradictions and problems. 

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See also:

Climate Tricks 42, SDGs and Jeffrey Sachs, oil and warming planet, August 05, 2015 

Climate tricks 43, Interview at Sonshine Radio, DZAR 1026, August 08, 2015 

Climate Tricks 44, Scary predictions in 2009, August 11, 2015 

Climate Tricks 45, On "vanishing" snow and "Godzilla" El Nino, November 13, 2015 

BWorld 29, Paris COP's emission cut targets vs. energy needs, December 06, 2015

Fat-Free Econ 7: Why We Need Nuclear Power Plants

(This is my article today in TV5's news portal,
http://www.interaksyon.com/article/29808/fat-free-economics-brownouts-expensive-electricity-and-nuclear-power)

To have no electricity for whatever reason – failure in power generation, transmission and distribution – is terrible. Thus, various sources of electricity, renewable or otherwise, fossil fuel or otherwise, should be explored.

Last week, a "Power Summit" in Davao highlighted the supply constraints in Mindanao. Among the alternative power sources that were proposed by some sectors was nuclear energy.

Many of the sources of public fear about nuclear power are more fiction than reality. These include: (1) nuclear power is highly dangerous to human lives, resulting in thousands of deaths in case of a meltdown; and (2) many countries around the world shun nuclear power because of the high risks involved.

On the first fear, nuclear power actually has the least casualties compared with all other energy sources. Death or contamination from nuclear plants is lower than death from road accidents or from smoking-reIated diseases.

The worst accident was in Chernobyl, Russia in 1986. After that, no major nuclear accident occurred. Even the Three Mile Island accident in the US produced zero casualties. The Fukushima accident last year after the huge earthquake-tsunami in Japan resulted in very few, if any, casualties.

The second fear has no basis. Asia’s biggest economies - China, Japan, India and South Korea have nuclear power reactors. As of April 2012, the number of reactors operable, reactors under construction, planned reactors, and proposed reactors of these countries are 15, 26, 51 and 129, respectively, for China; 2, 7, 16 and 40 for India; 51, 2, 10 and 5 for Japan; and 23, 3, 6, and 0 for South Korea.

Our neighbors Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia have two or more proposed reactors and would have these ready soon. And this could be a shocker for some people: petroleum giant Saudi Arabia is proposing 16 nuclear reactors.

One fear about reviving nuclear power in the Philippines is securing those reactors from terrorists. But should a nuclear plant be built in Mindanao, it should be in relatively safer places like Davao or Misamis Oriental, obviously not Basilan, Cotabato or Sulu. I also think that it is standard operating procedure that the walls of any nuclear reactor are super-strong. Not even bazooka or tank shells can penetrate them.

We need to explore more power sources, especially those that do not need taxpayers’ subsidies to make them affordable. Let more power plants from more companies come in and let the players compete with each other in producing stable, more affordable electricity.
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Meanwhile, here are the two tables that were not accommodated in the article due to space constraints:

Table 2. Nuclear Reactors as of April 2012, Selected Countries

source: World Nuclear Association,  http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/reactors.html
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See also:
Fat-Free Econ 1: Macroeconomics for Micro Concerns, March 08, 2012
Fat-Free Econ 3: Mining and Environmentalism, March 15, 2012
Fat-Free Econ 4: Unemployment, Good and Bad News, March 22, 2012
Fat-Free Econ 5: Property Rights and Policy Lefts, April 04, 2012
Fat-Free Econ 6: Foreign Aid and Tricycles, April 14, 2012

Earthquake 2: Japan Tsunami and Economic Preparedness

8pm, 11 March 2011. It's now more than 7 hours since the 8.9 magnitude earthquake occurred north-east of Japan today. The epicenter is less than a hundred kms. from Sendai and around 400 kms. NE of Tokyo, in the Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures.

Strong earthquakes that occur in the ocean do not cause immediate damage to houses, buildings and other human structures. Rather, they cause high and strong waves or "tsunami" that sweep nearby coastal areas, and all the human civilization erected there. Depending on the magnitude of the earthquake, but really strong ones can cause tsunami that can travel several hundred, up to 800, kms per hour.

The views on tv were scary. Thousands of houses, boats, cars, buses, small buildings and structures were swept away mercilessly by the strong waves. One wonders that if there was no quick warning to evacuate the coastal areas, several thousand people must have drowned, injured and died

Airports and their runways are usually elevated at least 2 or 3 meters above sea level. But the tsunami this afternoon was estimated to reach up to 33 feet or 10 meters high at the epicenter. By the time the waves reached the shoreline, perhaps they were still at 6 meters high. Thus, even the Sendai Airport was swamped with seawater.

Another chilling view of swept and drowned cars.

One wonders also, what if the tsunami occurred in the evening, how could people quickly pack up and evacuate when they were already in bed. Or what if it was raining so that the rainwater and flash flood would mix up with the seawater.

Some 400 kms. south of the epicenter, Tokyo area, the tremors have caused some oil refineries to burn, affecting their storage tanks. Here are some natural gas tanks that got burned.

All nuclear power plants near the affected areas were also shut down. The quick and efficient mitigation measures done by the people, corporations and government definitely reduced the casualties and other potential damages.

People were told to leave their buildings in Tokyo, in case there are strong after shocks. All trains were suspended in Tokyo too.

A friend of mine who lives there said that the telecom lines were overloaded. Some mobile phones could not be reached. The landlines and internet were ok though.

One of the few buildings that got partially burned during the tremors in Tokyo. Could be caused by damaged electrical wires or other factors.

Other pictures showed collapse parking lots, collapsed ceilings of still standing buildings, and so on.

A few hours after the tsunami, all Asian stockmarkets were down. The uncertainty was on the extent of damage to the economy of Japan, especially for listed companies with manufacturing plants in and around Sendai area, the work stoppages as a result of the shutdown of the trains, Tokyo-Narita airport, nuclear power plants and other structures.

Also the adverse effects on insurance companies and banks in Japan to deal with the huge damage to properties and people. But such downfall in Asian stockmarkets should be short-lived and temporary. It was not a structural economic-political problem. It was a natural calamity problem.

Within an hour of tsunami hitting Sendai, tsunami warnings have been raised in a number of countries near Japan including the Philippines. As I write this, I read that the warning has been raised to 50 countries and territories already, all the way up to North and South America, which are several thousands of kilometers away.

Tsunami warning was raised also in the western coasts of the Philippines, the waves were expected about 3 to 5 hours after the earthquake happened. Luckily, there were no reports of disastrous effects in the north-western provinces of the country.

Today's 8.9-magnitude quake in Japan was comparable to the 9.0-magnitude earthquake that struck the Banda Aceh area of Indonesia last December 2004. The tsunami that happened after it has killed about 250,000 people in 14 countries, mostly in Indonesia, and washed away entire coastal communities. But casualty in Japan was estimated at only around 15 people. Ok, I will revise this later when more updated figures of casualties will be reported.

What explains for the huge discrepancy in human casualty for similar earthquake magnitude in Japan and Indonesia?

Others will point to disaster preparedness by their respective governments and communities as the main explanation. Could be. But the more apparent reason is economic preparedness. Developed Japan has more sturdy houses and structures than less developed Indonesia, India and others affected by the 2004 tsunami. Developed capitalist Japan has more advanced telecommunications facilities to inform people -- among family members, friends, relatives, company employees, etc. -- to evacuate quick.

Earthquakes, tsunami, volcanic eruption, will be with us forever. They happened in the past, they happen today, and they will happen tomorrow and the next millions of years hence.

We can only hope that the Earth sciences of geology, seismology and related fields will keep improving in order to allow us to better understand and better prepare for the impending natural geological movements.

And more importantly, let us hope that the geological sciences will not be corrupted by politics, governments and the UN as what happened to the climate sciences. Even if tectonic movements, volcanic eruptions and other geological degassing also emit CO2 into the atmosphere.
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UPDATE

11.50pm, 11 March. New casualty reports say that "hundreds" have died with 300 bodies recovered in Sendai alone. The pictures and stories are becoming more gloomy.

One story, Tsunami hits Japan after massive quake just now reported "A passenger train with an unknown number of people aboard was missing in one coastal area, police told Kyodo. And a ship carrying 100 people was swept away, Japanese media reported, quoting police in Miyagi. It is not clear what happened to the vessel."

Weird scene. Small airplanes, cars and debris mixed up. In pictures above, boats + cars + debris mixed up.

Here in the Philippines, the waves reached the NW parts of the country at 6pm. First wave reported at 60 cms (2 feet). The 2nd, 3rd and 4th waves came at around 20 minutes internal from each other. No casualties here, luckily.

The extent of fires -- houses and buildings after the earthquake -- in the cities of Natori, Yamada, and other northern parts aside from Sendai, were bad.

Japan is a developed economy. Its severely affected cities should be able to recover soon. Its government, despite its heavy public debt, is expected to pour additional resources to rebuild damaged infrastructures. But it is Japan's private sector and innovative culture that will rebuild the damaged places.