Saturday, August 08, 2020

BWorld 447, Nuclear energy and PSA death statistics

 * My article in BusinessWorld, August 05, 2020.

Despite the incoherent rants against the country’s water, telecom, and electricity companies by President Rodrigo Duterte in his State of the Nation Address (SONA) 2020 last week, one good thing in his speech was the absence of reference to climate alarm and the need for more mandates, more subsidies to renewables which would mean more expensive electricity.

Recently, public attention has temporarily shifted from coal-bashing to entertaining nuclear energy including the possible revival of the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP). See these recent stories in BusinessWorld:

1. “Clean-energy bloc faults SONA for failing to address coal reduction, quarantine power bills” (July 29)

2. “Duterte signs EO authorizing nuclear energy study” (July 30)

3. “Renewables industry touts ‘untapped’ potential, superior safety vs nuclear” (July 31)

4. “DoE studying small nuclear plants for remote areas” (Aug. 3)

5. “Nuclear power plants seen unlikely to be operational by end of Duterte’s term” (Aug. 3)

For people who oppose fossil fuels (coal, gas, oil) and yet are scared of intermittent, unstable, weather-dependent solar-wind and other variable renewables, nuclear power would be the compromise for them. Many rich and developed countries in the world continue to use nuclear power. France remains the most nuclear-dependent country in the world with 72% of their total electricity generation in 2019 coming from nuclear, followed by Ukraine (54%) and Belgium (47%). For renewables, the Philippines’ 13.1% share to total is largely from geothermal and hydro as wind-solar combined contribute only about 2.5% of total (see the table).

Energy Secretary Alfonso Cusi’s proposal to have small nuclear plants for remote areas and islands is commendable and wise. Island-provinces like Basilan, Batanes, Camiguin, Catanduanes, Marinduque, Romblon, Siquijor, Sulu, Tawi-tawi, are good candidates to have small, modular nuclear power plants. Even big island-provinces like Palawan, Masbate and Mindoro.

Currently these island-provinces are dependent on big gensets running on diesel (more costly, more polluting) then pass the higher cost via Universal Charge for Missionary Electrification (UC-ME) at P0.156/kWh charged to all electricity customers nationwide. By having small nuclear plants with cheap, stable, 24/7 electricity, these provinces can attract more businesses especially in tourism and agri-business, create more jobs, and that burdensome UC-ME subsidy can finally be abolished and this will help bring down overall electricity cost nationwide.

For the main islands of the country, coal and indigenous gas will remain competitively priced. Global coal prices have been low recently, only about $55/ton from late April to July 2020 versus $70-$110/ton from September 2016 to March 2020. Global gas prices have also been low recently, but liquefied natural gas (LNG) can be costly overall because of the higher cost of storage for liquids (unlike storage for solids like coal) plus the additional cost for re-gasification before the gas power plants can produce electricity.

Meanwhile, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) has updated the death statistics for full year 2019 and preliminary January-June 2020 (https://psa.gov.ph/vital-statistics/id/162811).

The surprising thing from the numbers is that there are significantly less deaths in 2020 especially in the lockdown months from March to June, compared with similar months in 2016-2019. The average deaths per day for January-June are as follows: 1,560 in 2016; 1,573 in 2017; 1,608 in 2018; 1,717 in 2019; and 1,425 in 2020.

The feared “more deaths in 2020 due to COVID-19” compared to previous years so far is wrong and did not happen. Possible explanations are: 1.) under-reporting of deaths in May-June 2020 which will be reported later; 2.) fewer fatal accidents, especially involving motorcycles, less stabbings/shooting in bars due to the community quarantines and curfew; and, 3.) people are more health conscious now, wash hands more frequently, avoid “unhealthy” food and drinks, and so on.

But reasons Nos. 2 and 3 are not justifications for the continuing, indefinite lockdown. The business shutdowns, millions of job losses, economic contraction, high public borrowings, and high taxes later are dangerous and can lead to more poverty-related illnesses and deaths.
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See also:
BWorld 444, Economic hardships worse than virus risks, July 25, 2020 
BWorld 445, Virtue signaling in energy, August 02, 2020 
BWorld 446, More water and investments, less political whims, August 07, 2020.

Drug Price Control 50, Wallace, Clarete and LKI

I discovered just recently some of the articles on drug price dictatorship under Executive Order (EO) 104 signed by President Duterte last February 17, 2020.

In the first three articles by Peter Wallace (Wallace Business Forum) and Dr. Ramon Clarete (my former graduate teacher at UP School of Economics), they write with sense and wisdom. The fourth article shows why Laban Konsyumer Inc. (LKI) is a confused group. Consumers want more choices, more options, not less choices as a result of products pulled out due to state-controlled pricing of certain companies while leaving other companies' pricing untouched.

(Photo from BWorld)
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(1) No COVID-19 vaccine 
By: Peter Wallace - 05:04 AM May 28, 2020 
https://opinion.inquirer.net/130211/no-covid-19-vaccine

… The cure and vaccine for COVID-19 will be an essential drug people must have. But under EO 104, because it is an essential drug, it will fall under price control. If the government excludes these COVID-19 cures and vaccines from the controlled list, what argument will it use? The medicines for diabetes and heart ailments, respiratory illnesses, and cancers are just as essential as COVID-19 cures, even more so as an estimated 300,000 deaths occur in the country per year as a result of these illnesses, versus 904 so far for COVID-19.

Their prices will be reduced by EO 104. So COVID-19 vaccines and cures must be, too. That will result in the suppliers of these COVID-19 drugs, where demand will outstrip supply, prioritizing other markets where they can be sure of recouping the huge cost of research. The Philippines will not get the expected relief from COVID-19.

It’s the case with many of the drugs on the list whose prices will be reduced: Suppliers will rethink delivery to the Philippines. And when other new ones are discovered—for cancer, for instance—EO 104 will result in the Philippines being last on the list to supply, if at all. You’ll have to travel overseas to get the drugs you need. But overseas travel is not a particularly enticing thought at the moment, and will not even be allowed for many months yet.

A disturbing side note on this is that EO 104 introduces price cuts at the wholesale level (MDWP) as well as at retail (MDRP). Why? The only concern of the DOH should be what the patient pays. Even stranger, some wholesale prices are cut, but the retail price isn’t. Wasn’t the whole point of EO 104 to help the patient? Take the price of Fluticasone (an anti-asthma drug) at P85 per pill; under the executive order, the reduced MDWP price will be P59.02, while MDRP will be 85. The net effect is zero reduction in retail price, while pharmacies benefit from a margin of 44 percent, significantly higher than the 10-15 percent they generally enjoy.

This is a very strange regulation that will do more harm than good. It’s a populist stance whose goal (lower prices) could be achieved in better ways. The DOH should meet with the manufacturers for pooled procurement and other ways that are mutually agreeable to achieve the same price reductions, without loss to the companies but with benefit to the patients. But it has declined to do so.

EO 104 should be canceled so we still get the essential drugs sick people need, and be on the list for COVID-19 vaccines and cures.

(2) Unrealistic expectation 
By: Peter Wallace - 05:05 AM June 18, 2020 
https://opinion.inquirer.net/130893/unrealistic-expectation

… But vaccines are unlike cures; a cure is given to one sick person in the hope it will make them well. If there are side effects, they affect only that one person. Vaccines are given to millions of healthy individuals, so if there are side effects they can make many of those healthy people sick. Consequently, testing must be far more rigorous. …

There may be cures found in a relatively short time, and that will certainly help to flatten the curve of deaths, if not of sickness. Eli Lilly & Co. is talking about a drug available this year. Dexamethasone, a commonly available steroid, has also been found to cure some patients. But cures don’t give the protection necessary to get the world back to (a new) normal way of life. And if the price of the drug is halved, will we get the cure or the vaccine?

The Philippines has an ill-considered executive order (EO 104) issued by the Department of Health that halves the price of essential medicines. A COVID-19 cure and vaccine are essential medicines, so their price will have to be drastically cut, too. They can’t be considered any more important than medicines for the heart or diabetes, which have had their prices slashed. So those for COVID-19 must be, too. With that, will the manufacturers put the Philippines high on the list of early recipients?

EO 104 needs to be talked through with the industry because there are other, more acceptable ways to get prices down. Already, we are not getting new drugs because of this.

Maybe the First World will step in to supply the Third World with a vaccine for free, but surely that will be after they’ve supplied their own populace and paid the producers for it. With many countries clamoring for the drug, can we risk being low on the list?

The IATF needs to do three things: 1) Think of ways to be an early recipient of the vaccine. 2) Plan on when to relax controls based on having a cure maybe in a year or so, but not having a vaccine in enough quantity for two or more years. 3) Put EO 104 on hold, or better cancel it as it has no part to play in a free market economy.

If it turns out to be better than this, we’re ahead. But if we plan on a quick vaccine solution, we could be consigning many Filipinos to an early death.

(3) Let’s talk about drugs
July 26, 2020 | 5:58 pm
Introspective    By Ramon Clarete
https://www.bworldonline.com/lets-talk-about-drugs/

… Price controls would, however, bring more problems than benefits to patients. Like price controls imposed on other consumer items, which politicians are prone to price cap such as housing and food items, in the long run E.O. 104 would dry up the supply of medicines and drugs, reduce our country’s access to innovative pharmaceutical products, and would ultimately undermine the overall quality and integrity of the local pharmaceutical market…

When supply gets scarce, black markets of medicines start to co-exist with formal markets. Patients start to search for suppliers of the medicines they need. The added search costs effectively raise access costs of patients to medicines and drugs.

Even the rich among us, who could import medicines abroad in desperation would likewise have added access costs. No formal private businesses, Filipino or multi-national, would import drugs and medicines because of price controls. If they cannot pass on to the market the real costs of these products, they would not be supplying these items….

Secondly, price caps would undermine: the quality of the medicines and drugs sold locally. When the local market of price-capped pharmaceutical products gets to co-exist with black markets of badly needed drugs and medicines, the Food and Drug Administration would be unable to guarantee pharmaceutical quality….

Thirdly, all of the innovative medicines are manufactured abroad. Innovators price their medicines and drugs higher because they are recouping their investments in developing these innovative medicines and drugs. International and our national intellectual property laws do allow them to have a monopoly of selling the innovative drugs for about 21 years, for them to recover their R&D costs….

Fourthly, EO 104 may have disastrous effects on the supply chain of drugs and medicines. In the supply chain are giant retailers (or perhaps just one with more than half of the local retail market) of pharmaceutical products. Suppliers know that, and take care they would not incur the ire of these large retailers. With retail prices capped, it is expected that big retailers would just pass on to suppliers the burden of price controls by telling suppliers to price their products at wholesale prices set by the large retailers….

Fifth, delivery delays of medicines would also occur. There are two major supply chain distributors linking the suppliers to the hospitals and other health care institutions, and pharmaceutical retailers. Both are experienced in the distribution of medicines and drugs. Because of them, the private sector led-supply chain is relatively efficient.

Their revenues are proportionate to the wholesale prices of suppliers. With lower wholesale prices, distributors’ revenues fall and with distribution costs remaining the same, their net incomes get squeezed. I talked to the CEO of one of these distributors. In the price cap in 2009, his company lost about P10 billion. The price cap then was less than 10% of the scale of EO 104.

With expected larger losses, these distribution companies would have to re-think their business model. One possibility is they may carve off their businesses to focus on outlets where they can make money — another reason why access to medicines may shrink because of price controls….

Secretary Duque, let’s attend to this now, before these long-term negative effects (effects one through three) and the contemporaneous destructive effects on the supply chain of medicines and drugs in the country (effects four and five) of EO 104 become irreversible.

(4) Consumer group vows to help guard lower medicine prices 
By Kris Crismundo  June 3, 2020, 5:12 pm 
https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1104793

Laban Konsyumer Inc. (LKI) has vowed to help the government in monitoring retail prices of drugs and medicines as Executive Order 104 regulating their prices took effect Tuesday….

Dimagiba lauded President Rodrigo Duterte and Health Secretary Francisco Duque III for continuing the implementation of the EO 104 amid calls to withdraw the policy….
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See also:
Drug Price Control 47, Article in August 2010, June 01, 2020
Drug Price Control 48, DOH orientation on MWP, MRP, June 30, 2020 
Drug Price Control 49, The FEF statement, July 24, 2020.

Friday, August 07, 2020

Interview at BusinessWorld Live, One News

This morning I was interviewed by Jester de los Santos, host of "BusinessWorld Live TV" in One News, Cignal TV, about the Philippine economy as a result of the deep GDP contraction of -16.5% in the second quarter (Q2) of 2020.

The interview here about 13 minutes, https://www.facebook.com/ONENewsPH/videos/295847451649688/go to -15 to -2 minutes mark. Also available in https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxK0BJUQ60g.

Some screen shots of the points I made.
The numbers.
More screenshots...

Thanks Jes for the opportunity to discuss these issues in your program.
Thanks also to Madz Lacson of One News for inviting me.

See also: 
Live interviews at ONE News, election day, May 19, 2019 
Interview with ABS-CBN on huge public debt, July 25, 2020 
Agenda One News, Part 5, July 28, 2020.

The PH's Q2 2020 GDP meltdown

The Philippines experienced technically an economic meltdown in the second quarter (Q2) this year with a -16.5% GDP contraction, the lowest since 1981. The country is also in a recession having a two consecutive quarterly contraction -- along with SG, HK, and many EU countries. 

The virus did not cause this. All countries have their own share of virus infections. It was the PH government's hard lockdown policies that started in March 16 up to the present. See 
Covid 16, Philippines having the strictest lockdown policies in the world (July 28, 2020). 

In Europe, notice also that no-lockdown Sweden has (a) escaped contraction in Q1, and (b) lowest contraction in Q2 compared to its hard-lockdown neighbors.

Here's the PH's GDP quarterly performance, data from the PH Statistics Authority (PSA).


The endless, indefinite lockdown should stop. Mr. President, open up the economy.

We can learn from Sweden -- no lockdown, only the oldies and immuno-compromised people were protected and quarantined, the healthy and young can go out anytime. Shops and schools, restaurants and bars, churches are open; trains and buses go. Social distancing is limited to 50 people max in a gathering.

BWorld 446, More water and investments, less political whims

* My column in BusinessWorld last July 30, 2020.

During President Rodrigo Duterte’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) 2020 last Monday, he lashed out again at the Lopezes and other conglomerates and companies:

1.) Telecom: “… if you are not ready to improve …I might just as well close all of you and we revert back to the line telephone at kukunin ko ‘yan, i-expropriate ko sa gobyerno (and I will get them, I will expropriate that for the government).”

2.) Innovator pharma: “…Executive Order No. 104, which imposed ceilings on the retail prices of at least 133 drugs and medicines…”

3.) Water concessionaires: “… I would insist that you pay the billions and billions that you collected. For example, water treatment. O, nandiyan sa kontrata (It is in the contract). It’s in the billing, they are being collected since 1997. Ilang bilyon na nga wala ni isa (How many billion and there is not even one), not even a faucet was built for a water treatment facility.”

4.) Electricity: “This is the oligarchy that controls the Philippines by… taking control of the water and the electricity and power.”

These four sectors alone would involve tens of billions of dollars of private investments, local and foreign, to put up and maintain. By threatening them with government expropriation and imposing price controls, the President is sending a message to the international investment community that he can arbitrarily change rules midway at anytime and penalize certain businesses.

Two pieces of investment data here. Foreign direct investments (FDI) inward stocks to reflect yearly inflows minus outflows over time, data from the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) World Investment Report (WIR). And stock market capitalization, data from the World Federation of Exchanges (WFE). Until today, the Philippines is the least attractive to FDIs and portfolio investments among major economies in the Asia-Pacific (see the table).


On a per capita basis, the Philippines has the lowest in FDI inward stock and third lowest in stock market capitalization. This is not something to brag about and the President should be aware of the implications of his whimsical pronouncements.

The Maynilad and Manila Water concessions in particular — the President has demonized them since December 2019 and arbitrarily canceled the contract extension from 2022 to 2037. The privatization of Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System (MWSS) in 1997 into two areas was due to an admission by the government that it did not have the financial and technical resources to significantly improve water supply delivery to the people of Metro Manila and nearby cities.

Of the estimated eight million customers in 1997, only 26% had 24-hours water supply, and non-revenue water (NRW) due to leaks and theft was 62%. By 2019, water customers had doubled to 16.5 million and 96% of them have 24-hours water supply, NRW has declined to only 19%, meaning higher water pressure for consumers. Plus 100% sanitation coverage and over 50 new wastewater treatment plants which brought waste water coverage from almost zero to 30% of the metropolis. The capital expenditures (capex) to make these drastic improvements should be at least P300 billion.

And more investments will be needed because of two big challenges: rising urbanization and customer base, and stricter environmental regulations. The new Department of Environment and Natural Resources standards for biological nutrient removal are more stringent than the European Community standards. The estimated costs to comply with these new standards is around 30% on both capex and operating expenses.

And why should the contract extension to 2037 proceed, and not be arbitrarily canceled and abrogated?

Because in the last rate rebasing exercise by the MWSS Regulatory Office, the required combined capex of both concessionaires to complete the targeted water and sewerage systems by 2037 would amount to over P465 billion. The Clean Water Act plus the Supreme Court Mandamus have jointly raised the requirement from 50% to 100% sewerage coverage.

Government is now borrowing left and right to re-stimulate the economy. It is not prudent to borrow even more if it will re-nationalize the water sector in the metropolis and do the huge capex. And why should taxpayers from northern and southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, pay for the continued water supply improvement of people in Metro Manila?

President Duterte should respect the rule of law, respect the sanctity of contracts even by the previous administrations because future administrations are also obliged to honor and respect the contracts that his administration has entered into during its term.
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See also:
BWorld 443, Vaccine to avert more IPD, pneumonia deaths, July 19, 2020 
BWorld 444, Economic hardships worse than virus risks, July 25, 2020 
BWorld 445, Virtue signaling in energy, August 02, 2020.

Tuesday, August 04, 2020

Covid 17, Hard lockdown Europe vs no lockdown Sweden, any difference in death trend?

Six European countries were heavily affected by Covid-19 or Wuhan virus: Belgium, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden and UK. As of August 03, 2020, they have 460+ or higher deaths per million population (DPMP). Russia and Germany also have high cases but their DPMP are low, only 98 and 110, respectively.

Of the six countries mentioned, five have heavy lockdown policies while Sweden has no lockdown. Below are the charts of daily deaths of the six countries from March to August 03. Data from 

Question 1: Can you guess which of them is Sweden?

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....
....

You got or guessed Sweden?

The answer is #6, the last.

The countries from #1 to #6 and their respective DPMP are: Belgium 850, UK 680, Spain 609, Italy 582, France 464, Sweden 568.

Question 2: Any difference in trend with the five high-lockdown countries with no-lockdown Sweden?

None. They all have similar trend of declining, low deaths, even zero on some days, in recent weeks.

Two lessons we can derive from the above data. 

One, lockdowns did NOT help in containing the spread of the virus. What helped was protecting the oldies and immuno-compromised people because they have the weakest immune system in the population to withstand the virus.

Two, herd immunity threshold (HIT) may have been attained already in Europe, Sweden in particular.

The Philippines (only 19 DPMP) should stop this continuing and indefinite lockdown policy, started March 16, ECQ-GCQ, MECQ August 4-18. These lockdowns are "guided by science" kuno. In my estimate, it's 50% political science, 30% military science, 20% medical science.
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Update: European Mortality Monitoring (MOMO), until July 2020.


The six countries again:

Sunday, August 02, 2020

BWorld 445, Virtue signaling in energy

* My column in BusinessWorld, July 22, 2020.


Virtue signaling is the process and habit of taking a conspicuous but generally unproductive action supposedly to advance a good cause but actually to show off the “moral supremacy” of the person or group  compared to the rest of the population.

In the energy sector, it is the habit of some people and groups to tell others that they are anti-environment and anti-planet if they do not demonize fossil fuels, especially oil and coal, and embrace variable renewables like wind and solar.

While this behavior may be understandable in industrialized and rich economies which have ample power capacity, this behavior is counter-productive for poor economies with thin power capacity. The Philippines is a classic example of this and yet it is constantly and endlessly bombarded by many virtue-signaling groups and multilaterals that it must “decarbonize” as soon as possible.

Let us review some hard data. Some definitions and conversion factors: One Exajoule (EJ) = 23.88 million tons oil equivalent (mtoe), or 277.78 tera-watt hours (TWH). And one Gigajoule (GJ) = 23.88 kilos oil equivalent (koe), or = 277.78 kwh.

Of the countries and economies listed in the table on a per capita or per person basis, the Philippines has the smallest CO2 emissions, the smallest primary energy consumption (PEC), and among the smallest coal consumption. PEC includes all energy use from power and electricity to transportation, household and commercial cooking (see the table).

So what is the point in endlessly bombarding the Philippines public and government energy officials to hasten decarbonisation and quitting oil-coal usage, and push the country towards more energy poverty and economic underdevelopment?

Take these two stories in BusinessWorld of lobbying by groups for more decarbonisation:

1. “Renewables board studying changes in power contracting rules” (July 14, NREB planning to target 35% share of renewables to total power needs by 2030).

2. “Asia-Pacific must set loftier electrification goals — ADB expert” (July 20, talking primarily about solar).

I have also read and heard in some public lectures some officials of a big gas power company here demonizing oil-coal for their high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of CO2, without admitting that gas as fossil fuel is also a significant GHG emitter of methane. Even anti-coal campaigner Greenpeace also turned anti-gas, arguing that gas has high methane emission.

Meanwhile, I attended the Market Participants Update (MPU) organized by the Independent Electricity Market Operator Philippines (IEMOP) on July 3. The market participants are the various private players in the sector, the 279 members of the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) like the transmission system operator, generating companies (gencos), distribution utilities, and electric cooperatives. Plus 1,581 participants of the Retail Competition and Open Access (RCOA) like retail electricity suppliers (RES) and contestable customers.

WESM and RCOA are two of the most beautiful provisions of the EPIRA law of 2001 that directly benefit electricity consumers. WESM ensures fierce competition among gencos and RCOA ensures competition in electricity retail and distribution. And that is why the EPIRA law should not be junked or tinkered with as proposed by some groups that irrationally advocate re-nationalization and state re-monopolization of the power sector.

I requested updated data from the IEMOP and here are some interesting trends in the Luzon-Visayas grids as a result of ECQ-GCQ policies.

One, the average electricity demand from April-June 2020 has changed by an average of -1,578 MW or -14.7% over April-June 2019. I see this figure as an indicator of a -10% to -12% GDP contraction by second quarter 2020.

Two, average prices (ESSP) over the same quarters have changed or declined by P5.59/kwh.

Three, for July 1-20, 2020 vs July 1-20, 2019, the decline in electricity average demand has tapered to -366 MW or -3.5% while prices (LWAP) have declined by P2.64/kwh.

The main lesson here is that if people want cheaper electricity and stable power supply, we should strengthen the spot market system, expand WESM to Mindanao soon, maintain the “energy-agnostic” policy of Secretary Alfonso Cusi and not promote energy favoritism and cronyism for variable renewables.
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See also:

Saturday, August 01, 2020

PSA updated data on PH death statistics

Kudos to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) for updating the country's death statistics until June 2020. PSA Chief, the National Statistician and Civil Registrar General, is Dr. Dennis Mapa (BS Stat, MA Econ, MS Stat, PhD Econ, all from UP Diliman). Dennis is a friend and the last two weeks I was bugging him when they will release the updated PSA vital stats (births, deaths, marriages, etc). The death stats especially because of this persistent hysteria over the Wuhan virus -- that there are more diseases and deaths now because of the pandemic.

I often use PSA data in my BWorld column (GDP, inflation, employment, trade, deaths, etc.), Dennis sees it and he's very kind to update me on the death stats. Yesterday morning he pm me quickly after the numbers have been posted in their website. I thanked him for the heads up.

Now the data. Is the general assumption and belief that there are more deaths this year than in recent years, true?

Bad news for the pandemic hysteria movement and the hysterics, the answer is No. At least from these 2020 preliminary data below. The columns on variation or deviation from 2020 I just added and not in the PSA official excel file.


I also told Dennis that I'm interested on the (1) causes and (2) demographics of death stats, among others. He said that such breakdown will follow soon. Thanks bro.

As I argued in my some of my column on the Covid/Wuhan virus subject, people count only Covid cases and deaths but not hunger- and poverty-related sickness and deaths because of the indefinite, no timetable lockdowns. Metro Manila has been on GCQ (I call it General Colonel Quarantine) since about mid-May until at least August 15.

ALL the scary and hysteric scenarios of the pro-lockdown indefinitely "while cases remain high" groups are wrong. No massive deaths by tens or hundreds of thousands, no overwhelming of the country's healthcare system. There is only overwhelming alarm, panic and hysteria.

We should have ended this indefinite lockdown. Since end-April or May.