Tuesday, August 04, 2020

Covid 17, Hard lockdown Europe vs no lockdown Sweden, any difference in death trend?

Six European countries were heavily affected by Covid-19 or Wuhan virus: Belgium, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden and UK. As of August 03, 2020, they have 460+ or higher deaths per million population (DPMP). Russia and Germany also have high cases but their DPMP are low, only 98 and 110, respectively.

Of the six countries mentioned, five have heavy lockdown policies while Sweden has no lockdown. Below are the charts of daily deaths of the six countries from March to August 03. Data from 

Question 1: Can you guess which of them is Sweden?


You got or guessed Sweden?

The answer is #6, the last.

The countries from #1 to #6 and their respective DPMP are: Belgium 850, UK 680, Spain 609, Italy 582, France 464, Sweden 568.

Question 2: Any difference in trend with the five high-lockdown countries with no-lockdown Sweden?

None. They all have similar trend of declining, low deaths, even zero on some days, in recent weeks.

Two lessons we can derive from the above data. 

One, lockdowns did NOT help in containing the spread of the virus. What helped was protecting the oldies and immuno-compromised people because they have the weakest immune system in the population to withstand the virus.

Two, herd immunity threshold (HIT) may have been attained already in Europe, Sweden in particular.

The Philippines (only 19 DPMP) should stop this continuing and indefinite lockdown policy, started March 16, ECQ-GCQ, MECQ August 4-18. These lockdowns are "guided by science" kuno. In my estimate, it's 50% political science, 30% military science, 20% medical science.

Update: European Mortality Monitoring (MOMO), until July 2020.

The six countries again:

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