Sunday, November 03, 2024

Tobacco Taxation 3, Maldives' smoking and vaping ban

My previous papers on this subject can be considered as Tobacco Taxation 1 and 2:


Last October 15, Dr Mohamed Muizzu (@MMuizzu), President of the Republic of Maldives, President of Peoples' National Congress (PNC) | PPM-PNC Coalition Leader – Maldives, tweeted this:


This is weird. If the real goal is "tobacco free society" then they should have just prohibited smoking outright. But they just raised the cigarette (a) import tax from 3 Rufiyaa (R) to R8, and (b) advalorem tax by 50%. This implies a partial cigarette ban.

A day before that, President Muizzu tweeted this, then reposted the reaction of WHO:



So it's partial cigarettes prohibition, and total vapes prohibition. How feasible or realistic is Maldives' President in aiming for this?

I created this table, I chose comparable countries with Maldives -- below 1 million in population, per capita income not less than $13,000. Then I checked their cigarette smoking prevalence. See the result.


Rich Europeans that are usually woke and have strict health regulations and high tobacco-alcohol taxes like Luxembourg, Iceland, Malta and Cyprus, their smoking prevalence is not far from Maldives', Cyprus even has higher smoking prevalence than Maldives. 

These countries may have aimed for zero-tobacco or very-low-tobacco-use society but they never succeeded. People smoking, vaping is no different from people doing sky diving, rock climbing, fast downhill cycling, sedentary and couch potato, drinking and partying, etc. -- they do what gives them pleasure without causing harm on other people.

And assuming that higher tobacco tax rates will bring more revenues to government while reducing smoking incidence -- people may be going for disappointment. In the case of the Philippines for instance, as tobacco tax rate increases, government tobacco tax revenues decline. The chart is from my column last June.


Why this is happening -- because many smokers shifted to smuggled and illicit tobacco that are cheap, prices are just 1/4 to 1/2 of legal tobacco. Others have shifted to vape and smuggling incidence here is also high.

Perhaps Maldives' President should reconsider his new policy. People will keep smoking, drinking, vaping, fast downhill cycling, etc. because it gives them pleasure somehow, without harming other people. If legal products are restricted and prohibited, then illegal, illicit products will simply fill in the vacuum, and government loses regulation capacity with regards to tax revenues and product quality monitoring.

Prohibitions will not work. High taxation supposedly to discourage certain actions and hobbies will not work. Respecting individual freedom and actions that do not harm others will work.

BWorld 743, Interest rate cuts and credit ratings upgrade

Interest rate cuts and credit ratings upgrade

September 24, 2024 | 12:02 am


My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2024/09/24/623268/interest-rate-cuts-and-credit-ratings-upgrade/ 


Among the important events that happened over the last few weeks was the big interest rate cuts in the US and Canada, with the Philippines, Indonesia and few other countries following with smaller interest rate cuts.

 

In Asia, the Philippines had, until the second quarter this year, the highest interest rate set by monetary authorities or central banks at 6.5%. Despite this policy, which was supposedly to control high inflation, the Philippines endured the highest inflation rate in the ASEAN-6 in 2023 at 6%, and the second highest in the region from January to July 2024 at 3.7%, next to Vietnam’s 4.1%.

 

So it was good that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) finally realized that its high interest rate policy should be reversed even if at a piecemeal rate.

 

Meanwhile, Japan raised its interest rate from -0.1% to 0.25% (see Table 1).

 


I bumped into the president of Meralco PowerGen Corp. (MGen), also the former president of Aboitiz Power Corp., Manny Rubio. He has a bright finance mind because two big conglomerates have trusted him. I asked Manny about the huge recent US Fed rate cut and its microeconomic impact to households, he replied that “Broadly it signals that the government is less worried now about controlling inflation and is now prepared to shift to an expansionary policy. For companies with substantial funding requirements to support their capex plans and new projects, this would mean a substantial reduction in their funding costs. Such savings would allow energy companies to complete new generation capacities and distribution facilities more cheaply which would eventually reduce the cost of electricity for the consumers.”

 

In a Viber message, Budget Secretary Amenah F. Pangandaman welcomed the interest rate cuts of the US Fed and BSP, saying, “this will have significant reduction in our interest payment which is now a significant share of our total annual budget. And this will eventually lead to efficient budget allocation to sectors that need more funding and help expand our economy.”

 

Secretary Pangandaman’s concern is correct because the amount of our interest payments has been rising fast, from P361 billion in 2019 to P429 billion in 2021, P503 billion in 2022, P628 billion in 2023, and P457 billion already in January-July 2024 alone. If this trend continues, then the full year 2024 interest payment will rise to P783 billion. Or a doubling of our interest payment in just five years from 2019 to 2024.

 

ROADMAP TO CREDIT RATINGS


There were a number of recent pieces in BusinessWorld on the subject of credit ratings:  “Recto says Philippines still on track to achieve ‘A’ credit rating” (June 10), “Philippines needs 6-7% growth to achieve ‘A’ credit rating — Recto” (Aug. 14), “R&I upgrades PHL credit rating to ‘A-’” (Aug. 15), “Public-finance roadmap to help elevate PHL to ‘A’ credit rating — Budget dep’t” (Sept. 17), “Philippine credit rating upgrade possible if GDP grows faster than expected” (Sept. 18). There was also yesterday’s column, Introspective, entitled “Philippine sovereign credit rating: An ‘A’ rating, how soon?” (Sept. 23) by Alex Escucha.

 

My column has also discussed this subject previously: “Declining borrowings and improving credit ratings” (June 18), “Fast growth towards better credit ratings” (Aug. 13), “MUP pension reform and ‘A’ credit ratings” (Aug. 20).

 

Finance Secretary Ralph G. Recto and Budget Secretary Pangandaman’s desire for the Philippines to attain a credit rating of “A” is understandable. An “A” means our capacity to service our loan obligations is high, so the cost of borrowing, both public and corporate, will be lower. And financing important projects like infrastructure will entail lower costs. 

 

Currently, the Philippines has credit rating of BBB+ “stable” under S&P, Baa2 “stable” under Moody’s, and BBB “stable” under Fitch. Then there are the ratings of BBB+ “positive” from R&I, and A- “stable” from the Japan Credit Rating Agency (JCR). An A- from the JCR is good but it is the Big Three — S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch — that matter most.

 

One thing I notice though is that high credit ratings can also lead to the problem of a “moral hazard” in economics. Since the cost of borrowing is low due to high ratings, there is a tendency by governments to over-spend and over-borrow. So, the high ratings do not lead to less public debt and lower Debt/GDP ratios, the reverse can happen. This is happening in the G7 industrial countries and other countries around the world.

 

For example, there is Canada which has had a high AAA “stable” rating for decades and its Debt/GDP ratio kept rising, from 76% in 2003 to 107% in 2023. The US, the UK, France, Japan, and Italy all suffered declines in ratings over the past two decades but still at high A levels, except Italy (see Table 2).

 


An upgrade in ratings to “A” is important. But more important is how we can control our spending, deficit, and borrowings in years where there are no economic or finance crises, like 2022 to the present. We should have a budget surplus, not a deficit; we should reduce, not increase, our public debt stock; and we should reduce, not maintain, our Debt/GDP ratio.

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Climate 111, More oil consumption and declining frequency of storms

“Earth Day” was invented in April 1974 or 50 years and 7 months ago. It was invented to call for human attention vs “environmental damage” by oil and other fossil fuels, among other concerns.

In 1974, total world oil consumption was 55.3 million barrels per day (mbpd).

In 2007 when Al Gore and UN IPCC won the “Nobel Peace Prize” for their fight against “man-made” global warming and CC mainly caused by oil and fossil fuels, world oil use was 73.7 mbpd.

In 2023, it’s 100.2 mbpd. The world is not reducing oil demand despite all the climate scare mongering by the UN, Al Gore, Bloomberg, Greta, Obama, etc. The world keeps using more oil. And begging for more oil, and gas, and coal, and nuclear.

And yet the world is not plunging into horrible "unprecedented, unequivocal global warming," or "storms getting more frequent, getting stronger." An update from Dr. Ryan Made website tracking the number of storms worldwide from 1971 to Sept. 2024 shows a declining number of storms, both strong and average hurricanes.

https://climatlas.com/tropical/

The  latest data on El Nino-La Nina cycle also shows Nino region 3.4 going into La NiƱa with temperature anomaly or variation of -0.61 C as of last Monday, Oct. 28. A triple-dip La Nina in 2020-2022, global cooling. Then big and hot El Nino mid-2023-early 2024. And now it’s back to La Nina and there are rains and floods every week in many places in the PH alone.

The narrative “more oil, more fossil fuel consumption = more warming” (ie, more drought, more sea level rise,…) is not happening. Or "more fossil fuels = more storms, stronger storms" is not happening. The climate crusaders like Bloomberg been lying for decades. But they continue because… money. Trillions dollars money via carbon trading, subsidies to RE, etc. 

See this article by Mike Bloomberg himself:

The end of greenwashing is in sight
By Michael R. Bloomberg, May 30, 2024

"As a result, the market for carbon credits is much smaller — and far less productive — than it should be....
This is a market failure we can fix, and we should treat it like any other market failure....
A similar remedy is needed for carbon credits, because transparency does for markets what spinach does for Popeye. The story of Bloomberg is a testament to that..."

There. Mike Bloomberg himself is corrupt, advance climate scare mongering because his company will directly benefit via carbon market trading, among others. That is why practically all Bloomberg opinions and analysis on climate are on climate scare mongering. We should be scared of less rain and more rain, be scared of no flood and more flood, be scared of less cold and more cold, be scared of less dogs and more dogs. Whatever weather, whatever climate phase, we should be scared. And we should turn to the UN, and Bloomberg.

Trump ended US engagement with UN climate climate in 2017, all the woke minds including Bloomberg, their heads exploded. Walang raket pera pera under Trump. So Bloomberg people, from Mike himself down the line, must invent all scare mongering stories about Trump. Just make sure he does not go back to the white house and end climate climate racket, among others.
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BWorld 742, The Atimonan coal project, energy transition, and the ERC

The Atimonan coal project, energy transition, and the ERC

September 19, 2024 | 12:03 am


My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2024/09/19/622417/the-atimonan-coal-project-energy-transition-and-the-erc/ 


One of the important recent developments in the Philippines power sector was the renewed plan by Meralco PowerGen. Corp. (MGen) to proceed with the Atimonan coal power project in Quezon province.

 

Here are some reports in BusinessWorld that show the evolution in the plans of the Atimonan project through the years: “Atimonan folk to critics of power plant project: Don’t block progress” (July 21, 2017), “Cusi defends CEPNS given to Atimonan coal power plant” (Oct. 4, 2018), “Meralco willing to undergo competitive selection process to allow Atimonan construction to start” (May 29, 2019), “Groups want MGen coal plant project’s ECC declared expired” (Oct. 19, 2020), “From coal to gas, MGen readies Atimonan plant’s conversion” (Aug. 2, 2023), “Meralco seeks to proceed with Atimonan power project” (Sept. 10, 2024).

 

This move towards coal by MGen is good and brilliant. Coal power is among the important work horses of the industrialized countries in the west and the new economic dragons in East Asia that helped in their fast economic growth and improved well-being of their people.

 

Developed countries like Australia, the US, the UK, Germany, Australia, Canada, and Japan have higher coal power generation per capita than three decades ago. The Philippines’ coal generation per capita remains small until today (see the table).

 

 

THE ENERGY TRANSITION


The constant pressure — if not bullying — by various groups who say that the Philippines should retire its coal plants early and shut them down is based on the fanatical belief that decarbonization and degrowth is good for our people. This is wrong.

 

The endless push for “energy transition” is misplaced. Coal, gas, and nuclear remain the most reliable, safe, and competitively priced energy sources that developing countries like the Philippines need.

 

At the Asia Power Forum in Singapore on Sept. 12, Aboitiz Power Corp. Chief Corporate Services Officer Carlos Aboitiz made a good presentation entitled “The energy transition: A perspective from Emerging Asia.”

 

According to the press statement they issued, Mr. Aboitiz said that “Energy is produced only if it is consumed… At the end of the energy value chain are individuals and the institutions that produce the hallmarks of modern society… Often, we hear pronouncements that renewables are cheaper than their fossil fuel counterparts… Unfortunately, the math doesn’t add up. Today’s math is based on incomplete accounting, using the levelized cost of electricity or LCOE as opposed to accounting for the intermittency and lack of resource[s] in solar and wind during different times of the day and year.”

 

He is correct. The LCOE is computed only when an energy source like solar or wind is running. When it is not running like when the sun is not shining and the wind is not blowing, a backup source (usually a gas or oil plant) must run and its cost must be included in the computation and the total cost per kWh in a day goes up.

 

THE TEMPEST AT THE ERC


Another important development in the energy sector was the order handed down on Sept. 5 by the Ombudsman to suspend Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) Chairperson Monalisa Dimalanta for six months.

 

Among the recent reports in BusinessWorld about this development were: “Business groups urge quick resolution after suspension of ERC’s Dimalanta” (Sept. 9), “ERC chair exploring options after six-month suspension” (Sept. 9), “Dimalanta case resolution seen as critical to making progress on power projects” (Sept. 15).

 

Among the big business and professional organizations in the Philippines that issued statements of concern about the Ombudsman’s ruling were: the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Philippine Exporters Confederation, and the Employers Confederation of the Philippines. These groups issued a joint statement saying, “This decision along with other recent decisions by the Judiciary puts at risk the trust, independence and authority of the ERC… We advocate for a swift and transparent resolution of the suspension to restore the integrity of the ERC and its Commission.”

 

Said the Management Association of the Philippines: “The country needs a fully functional ERC, led by a competent and dedicated Chair like Chair Dimalanta who has demonstrated not only integrity and dedication, but also innovativeness and courage to make bold and prompt decisions.”

 

Said the Makati Business Club: “We believe that the six-month suspension order issued by the Ombudsman not only affects investor perception but also affects the certainty of the Philippine business environment given the critical role of power in business and investments.”

 

Said the Philippine Independent Power Producers Association, Inc.: “We generators hope that this matter will be resolved soonest since the suspension of our ERC chairperson affects the whole industry… The industry cannot afford a commission without its chair. We hope that all stakeholders unite in its support to the ERC chair.”

 

Said the Retail Electricity Suppliers Association of the Philippines: “The retail electricity suppliers are already facing complex issues on energy security, it is even more crucial that the Commission remains stable and effective to ensure continuous access to sustainable and reliable power solutions.”

 

The petitioner, the National Association of Electricity Consumers for Reforms, Inc. (NASECORE), gravely misrepresented what constitutes consumer interest.

 

NASECORE does not represent me as an electricity consumer myself. My concern as a consumer is having more choices. Whether I should consume 1,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) or 600 kWh or 250 kWh per month depending on my needs and household budget, I want an electricity supply that is available when I need it, with no blackouts. I do not want my choices to be limited to using either candles or a diesel genset because of blackouts and an insufficient power supply.

 

Political drama in the energy sector is not among my concerns, so as I see it, NASECORE and its leadership are just pursuing their own personal and political agendas.

 

The Ombudsman should have had the wisdom to not be easily swayed by the arguments of this so-called consumer organization. But it failed to use that wisdom.

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MidEast Africa 14, Trump and the Abraham Accords

Among Trump's records in his 4-years term 2017-2020, the most important for me was his "No new US war" policy. That is why even among the Republican Party, many dislike him. Like the Cheney father-daughter, Lindsey Graham, McConnel, etc are horrified.

The Abraham Accords, Israel peace pact with Arab countries initiated and facilitated by Trump started with "low hanging fruits" or those Arab countries with no direct conflict with Israel like the Israel-UAE, Israel-Bahrain, Israel-Morocco, Israel-Sudan. Build confidence, show to other Arab countries that such peace pact can be serious. Israel-Saudi, Israel-Syria, Israel-Palestine, Israel-Lebanon, etc, will take decades of confidence building. Under Biden-Harris, the Accords were technically discontinued. And UAE has become cautious of Israel again. 

(source of photo: Arab Center)

Trump's other peace initiatives other than the Abraham Accords was his engagement with N. Korea leader Kim Jung Un (KJU). The Trump-KJU meeting in Singapore in 2018 was a success, KJU developed some confidence to trust a US leader. Trump's National Security Adviser, John Bolton came for the Trump-KJU 2nd meeting in Vietnam, and things turned bad. I think Bolton sabotaged the talks because he wanted war, not peace with N. Korea. Anyway Trump fired Bolton.

With respect to wars abroad, the difference between Republican President George Bush Sr. and Democrat President Bill Clinton, the difference between Republican Pres. George Bush Jr. and Democrat Pres. Barrack Obama was... nothing, zero. Same war freak policy, endless wars abroad is beautiful, regime change abroad for certain leaders who do not follow the CIA and Pentagon diktat is beautiful.

Trump's No new US war policy angered both the mainstream Republicans and Democrats, the mainstream media like NYT, CNN, WaPo, Bloomberg, etc. Trump is evil, Trump is Hitler, because he has no new war for 4 years, horrible. If he wins again on Tuesday, no new US war for 4 years, 2025-2029. Horrible for them.
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Monday, October 28, 2024

BWorld 741, Sectoral parochialism in health and the declining population net increase

Sectoral parochialism in health and the declining population net increase

September 17, 2024 | 12:01 am

 

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2024/09/17/621858/sectoral-parochialism-in-health-and-the-declining-population-net-increase/

 

Three recent items in the Opinion Section of this paper have discussed using the idle funds of the Philippine Health Insurance Corp. (PhilHealth) to fund some unprogrammed appropriations in the 2024 budget.

 

These were the Sept. 11 Thinking Beyond Politics column, “Making public money work for the people: Idleness of funds is idleness in service,” by Victor “Dindo” Manhit, a Letter to the Editor by Department of Budget and Management (DBM) Undersecretary Goddes Hope O. Libiran which came out on Sept. 13, and the Sept. 16 Yellow Pad column, “Current demographic trends do not justify reduction of PhilHealth premiums,” by Charl Andrew Bautista, Elma Laguna and Michael Abrigo.

 

The Manhit article supports the move by the Department of Finance (DoF) and Secretary Ralph G. Recto, noting, for example “an initial remittance of P20 billion from PhilHealth was used to settle P27.5 billion in unpaid COVID-19 allowances for frontliners, covering 5.04 million claims. Is this not a good thing?” Good position there, Dindo.

 

The DBM letter was in response to four claims made in the Sept. 9 Yellow Pad column, “Patronage politics has caused the loss of health insurance coverage for millions of Filipinos,” by Juan Antonio Perez III which the DBM said was “in the interest of accuracy and balanced views to avoid unnecessary alarm to the public, perpetuated by false, fear-mongering, and misleading news reports such as this.” Good correction there, Ms. Libiran.

 

The Yellow Pad piece by Bautista, Laguna, and Abrigo suggests that to “maximize the benefits of the increased premium collections” they should, among others, “Invest the surplus in expanding PhilHealth packages” in order to “improve cost coverage to prevent catastrophic health expenditures for individuals and families,” and “prepare for the eventual population aging.”

 

A common practice of advocates of what I call “sectoral parochialism” is to argue that their favorite sector is so important that whatever budget is given to it by DBM and Congress will never be enough and must be increased significantly. Thus, the P90 billion in excess PhilHealth funds should not be used for other sectors. Instead, whenever possible, it should be increased, doubled, quadrupled, or higher.

 

The DoF, DBM, and the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), which comprise the government’s economic team, see the overall picture of all agencies and all possible sources of funds (taxation, regulatory fees, and borrowings). Since the Philippines’ public debt is already high — the annual borrowings and interest payment keep rising even without an economic or finance crisis — the economic team will tap other domestic sources and avoid additional borrowing whenever possible. The economic team is correct in doing this. And the lobbyists and advocates of “sectoral parochialism” dislike them, even attack them and produce “false, fear-mongering, and misleading news,” like the opponents of reallocating PhilHealth’s excess funds to unprogrammed appropriations.

 

From 2022 to 2024, during which time there has been no economic or health crisis, and no more lockdowns, some expenditures like temporary subsidies should have been cut in order to have a fiscal surplus, in order to reduce borrowings and reduce interest payments. But this did not happen and is not happening.

 

From 2022 to 2024, we still had an average deficit of P3 billion to P4.4 billion/day, our interest payments alone were P1.4 billion to P2.2 billion/day — principal amortization not included yet in that number. New net borrowings were P5.4 billion to P6.4 billion/day. And even when interest rates were hiked, like 6% for T-bills and 6.7% for T-bonds, government kept on borrowing (see Table 1).

 


Secretary Recto, Secretary Amenah Pangandaman, Secretary Arsenio Balisacan, please proceed with tapping any domestic revenues you can and avoid new borrowing whenever possible. Fiscal realism should prevail over sectoral parochialism.

 

On the Philippines’ changing demographics as discussed by the Bautista, Laguna, and Abrigo in their column, here are some statistics from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) which they did not mention: rising deaths, declining births, and the declining population net increase.

 

In 2020, when hundreds of new COVID-19 cases were reported daily and a severe lockdown was imposed by the government, there were no excess deaths over those reported in 2019. But in 2021, when mandatory vaccination was imposed (otherwise it was the mandatory to present costly PCR-tests taken every two weeks at the individual’s cost), deaths increased from 1,682/day in 2020 to 2,410/day in 2021 then 1,862/day in 2022.

 

The average number of births declined, from 4,188/day in 2020 to 3,739 in 2021, and 3,776/day in 2023. The population net increase (births minus deaths) also declined significantly, from 2,506/day in 2020 to only 1,329 in 2021, and 1,960/day in 2023 (see Table 2). And we are seeing this ugly declining trend in population expansion.

 


The Philippines may have spent some P200+ billion on COVID-19 vaccines plus transport, storage, and other logistics in 2021-2022 alone, in both government (national and local) and corporate procurement.

 

Health is first and foremost a personal and parental responsibility, only secondarily is it a government responsibility. This is so whether dealing with communicable/infectious or non-communicable/non-infectious diseases. When people say that it is OK for the poor to buy alcohol, tobacco, fatty food, then say that it is not OK for the poor to contribute to their own health insurance even at a minimal amount, then we have a problem.

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Philstar 6, Energy security, consumer choice and the ERC

Energy security, consumer choice and the ERC

ENERGY, INFRA AND ECONOMICS 

Bienvenido Oplas Jr. - The Philippine Star 

September 12, 2024 | 12:00am

https://www.philstar.com/business/2024/09/12/2384521/energy-security-consumer-choice-and-erc

 


Energy and power security means ample supply of electricity with no blackout, there is consistent expansion of power supply to meet rising demand yearly. Choice is the main interest of consumers, a product or service can be expensive but if it gives the consumers satisfaction then it is worth the money. And the main purpose of a regulator like the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) is to protect consumers and ensure they have more choices.

 

With these brief definitions, we now discuss three important recent development in the Philippines power sector.

 

Cheap electricity via CSP

 

The Competitive selection process (CSP) by private distribution utilities (DUs) like Meralco and electric cooperatives is among the important provisions of the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA) of 2001 (RA 9136).

 

The latest need of Meralco for 600 MW baseload (ie, running 24/7) capacity resulted in really competitive prices for the consumers. The winners announced during the bid opening last August 27 were SMC’s Masinloc Power for 500MW at P5.60/kwh and Aboitiz Power’s GNPD for 100MW at P5.74/kwh, and both are coal plants.

 

These are indeed cheap electricity for two reasons. One, these are way below Meralco’s reserved price for levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) at P7.26/kwh. Two, they are lower even in prices contracted several years ago.

 

I checked the prices of Meralco contracted prices in 2018 where the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) rebased the consumer price index (CPI) at 2018 = 100. The CPI in August 2024 was 122.5. So to convert previous prices to August 2024 prices to consider the effect of inflation, the formula is: (Price Aug. 2024 = Price Aug. 2018 x 1.225).

 

Here are the prices in 2018 of coal plants contracted with Meralco and their converted prices to August 2024 respectively, in pesos per kwh: Masinloc Power, P10.72 to P13.13; San Miguel Energy (Sual plant), P6.61 to P8.10; Therma Luzon, P6.08 to P7.45; Quezon Power, P5.52 to P6.76.

 

Two lessons here: CSP works for the consumers, gives them cheap electricity despite rise in overall inflation; and coal plants continue to be innovative and efficient leading to lower prices.

 

Atimonan coal plant may proceed

 

One good news recently is the possible proceeding of Meralco PowerGen Corp. (MGen) Atimonan power project in Quezon province. It is a huge, 1,200-MW ultra-supercritical, hence a highly efficient low emission (HELE) coal plant with environmental compliance certificate already issued in 2015.

 

Currently our power generation increase is only about 6 terawatt-hours (TWH) per year,  Vietnam has about 14-15 TWH/year. The 6 TWH reflects frequent yellow-red alerts. To remove these plus considering the projected 6 percent GDP growth yearly, we need at least 8 TWH/year going to 10 TWH/year.

 

The Atimonan plant alone when it starts operating and assuming a 90 percent capacity factor, its projected power generation will be (1,200 MW) x (24 hours/day) x (365 days/year) x 0.90 = 9.46 TWH/year). This will be a big attraction for businesses to enter the Philippines as the regular threats of blackout can be eliminated.

 

Coal power is an important energy source for many Asians and industrial countries. Here are the coal power generation of countries in 2023 in TWH: China 5,754, India 1,471, US 738, Japan 304, Indonesia 217, S. Korea 203, Vietnam 130, Germany 128, Australia 126, Taiwan 119, Malaysia 81, Philippines 74. Data from Energy Institute, Statistical Review of World Energy 2024.

 

Ombudsman suspension of ERC Chairperson

 

Ombudsman Samuel Martinez issued an order dated Aug. 20, 2024 suspending for six months ERC Chairperson Monalisa Dimalanta for “Grave Misconduct, Grave Abuse of Authority, Gross Neglect of Duty and Conduct Prejudicial to the Best Interest of the Service.” The complainant is Mr. Petronilo Ilagan, president of so-called consumer group,  National Association of Electricity Consumers for Reforms, Inc. (NASECORE).

 

I am not a lawyer but after reading the six-page order, my quick reactions were  – where is  “Grave Misconduct,”  where is “Grave Abuse of Authority” there? The ERC is a collegial body, there are other commissioners who decide and vote on decisions, why single out the chairperson only?  And NASECORE represents me as an electricity consumer? When and why, considering that I have a different definition of consumer interest?

 

Four reputable business organizations issued brief but rational statements on this issue.

 

A joint statement last Sept. 9 by the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI), Philippine Exporters Confederation (PhilExport) and the Employers Confederation of the Philippines (ECOP) expressed concern that the six-month suspension order “may lead to disruption in the workings of ERC, which may impact consumers, businesses and producers alike. This decision along with other recent decisions by the Judiciary puts at risk the trust, independence and authority of the ERC… We advocate for a swift and transparent resolution of the suspension to restore the integrity of the ERC and its Commission.”

 

Then the Retail Electricity Suppliers Association of the Philippines (RESA) also expressed deep concern that the suspension order “could not only disrupt and further delay the implementation of the Commission’s  rules and policies, which heavily relies on the chairperson’s leadership… The retail electricity suppliers are already facing complex issues on energy  security, it is even more crucial that the Commission remains stable and effective to ensure  continuous access to sustainable and reliable power solutions.“

 

The above three topics were also reported in The Philippine STAR: “San Miguel, AboitizPower units frontrunners for Meralco CSP” (Aug. 28), “Meralco seeks DOE nod on Atimonan coal plant” (Sept. 10), “ERC chief exploring legal options amid six-month suspension” (Sept. 10).

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Sunday, October 27, 2024

BWorld 740, Airport modernization and fiscal savings from NAIA privatization

Airport modernization and fiscal savings from NAIA privatization

September 12, 2024 | 12:03 am

 

My Cup Of Liberty

By Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr.

https://www.bworldonline.com/opinion/2024/09/12/620854/airport-modernization-and-fiscal-savings-from-naia-privatization/

 

This Saturday, Sept. 14, the New NAIA Infra Corp. (NNIC) will take over the upgrading, modernization, operation, and maintenance of the Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA). The members of NNIC are San Miguel Holdings Corp., RMM Asian Logistics, Inc., RLW Aviation Development, Inc., and the Incheon International Airport Corp.

 

The estimated project cost (as of approval) is P170.6 billion. The main goals of this privatization scheme are to increase airport capacity from 35 million passengers per annum (mppa) to 62 mppa; to increase air traffic movements (ATMs) from 40-42 per hour to 48 ATMs per hour; to deliver internationally benchmarked Minimum Performance Standards and Specifications (MPSS); and to improve passengers and airlines experience and retail options. In the process, it should help improve the Philippines’ attractiveness as a tourism, investment, and trade destination.

 

The concession period is 15 years, from 2024 to 2039, extendable for another 10 years so long as the NNIC is able to fulfill its obligations or at least not be in flagrant violation of the Concession Agreement on the 8th anniversary of the signing date.

 

This is a beautiful scheme. On the government side, lots of work was done by the Department of Transportation (DoTr) which focused on infrastructure and regulatory aspects. But equally important work was contributed by the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Center, headed by Executive Director Cynthia C. Hernandez.

 

They facilitated and complemented the work of DoTr, plus ensured the delivery of internationally benchmarked MPSS. They facilitated and monitored the implementation of the signed concession agreement between the parties, helped mobilize private sector resources and expertise for the modernization and capacity expansion of NAIA, spearheaded the project’s feasibility and financial structuring (such as defining the terms of concession periods, revenue sharing, and financial models) and coordinated the project through various stages — including the submission to the Investment Coordination Committee, obtaining National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Board approval, overseeing the competitive bidding process, and interacting with reviewing bodies such as the Office of the Government Corporate Counsel and the Office of the Solicitor General.

 

 

The economic team — NEDA as mother agency of the PPP Center, and Finance and Budget departments — also contributed via policy guidance, fiscal incentives, and related policies.

 

The PPP Center shepherded the DoTr and MIAA through the PPP process, especially with recent policy changes, so that the processes were in line with the then Build Operate Transfer (BOT) Law and its Implementing Rules and Regulations (IRR). Since the procurement process commenced in August 2023, the bidding rules followed were in accordance with the BOT Law and the Revised 2022 IRR. Note that the NAIA PPP Project’s Concession Agreement already implements the new PPP Code as its governing law.

 

I was wondering if this scheme is unique in the Philippines. The PPP Center clarified that the modality of NNIC is consistent with many other international airports that operate under similar PPP models. Examples include the London Heathrow Airport and Sydney Airport where private companies took on airport operation, management, modernization and maintenance responsibilities, sharing revenues with the government.

 

The government’s share from this scheme is substantial, starting with an upfront P30-billion payment to the government, a P2 billion annual guaranteed payment, and a share from gross revenues (see Table 1).

 


I am interested in public finance, and how taxpayers and even non-users of the airport can benefit via the unburdening from more borrowings. I computed the savings by the government both in principal and interest payments, from 2024 to 2028. My estimate is that there will be P158 billion in savings from the principal (as this amount will not be borrowed), plus P9.8 billion from foregone interest payments because we will not borrow this amount (see Table 2).

 


Congratulations, DoTr, PPP Center, NEDA, Department of Finance and Department of Budget and Management. Thank you, SMC and other members of the NNIC.

 

As there is more modernization of the Philippines, there will be more growth and job creation, and sustained high growth. Little by little, project by project, we should stay on track in this direction.

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