My friend and fellow UPSE alumnus Bob Herrera-Lim co-wrote a new paper,
The Broad Trends Shaping Asia
By Tobias Harris, Bob Herrera-Lim & Gabriel Wildau
https://www.teneo.com/vision-book/2021/the-broad-trends-shaping-asia/
1. "U.S. fostered efforts... that emphasized free
markets..."
I don't think this is the case in 8 yrs of Obama-Biden, especially in
healthcare and energy, big government roles there under almost single-payer HC and
anti-coal regulations by EPA, anti oil-gas fracking in many federal lands.
2. "Washington’s excessive focus on the Middle East
and the global war on terror."
Trump tried to stop this, pull out all US
troops from MidEast and Afghanistan but he's restricted by defense-arms
industry mafia, others in the deep state.
3. "Trump’s... steel and aluminum tariffs..."
We should review again tariff
rates of countries before Trump. CN, EU, even JP have mean tariff rates that are
2-3x higher than US.
As I argued before, Trump challenged G7 countries in June 2018 to have "mutually zero tariff, zero subsidies trade" and they all got angry. When they were confronted with "mutually high tariff" they also got angry.
https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/8g74f2/eu_tariffs_v_us_tariffs/
4. "withdrawal of some troops from South Korea..."
Not only in S. Korea but also in
Germany, the base of US defense operations for Europe and Africa. Consistent
with Trump policy to stop "endless wars" and many people got angry at
him. They love endless wars.
5. "Most countries want the U.S. to continue to
serve as a check against rising Chinese influence, both economically and
militarily."
This is Trump strategy. Pull out of MidEast esp Iraq and
Syria, get out of Afghanistan entirely, even Germany, and focus its military in
SCS/WPS and Taiwan. Why, US has little business in Afghanistan or Syria Iraq.
But it has thousands of container ships that pass through the SCS and being
bullied by CN Navy is not good for their business. Explicit military defense of
Taiwan is also good policy. Not sure if Biden will make the same policy on
Taiwan.
Most of Bob’s paper I agree.
TDS (Trump derangement syndrome) people might argue that Trump sending aircraft carriers and battleships in SCS, explicit defense of TW, is the same as keeping US troops in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, etc. No, far out. In SCS, they are thousands of trips of US cargo ships delivering exports and imports yearly passing by SCS, and CN Navy can harass them as passing on "CN waters." This can be considered as CN initiating a military confrontation, sending battle ships vs ordinary cargo ships. The US Navy telling the CN Navy that this is international waters, not CN waters, their cargo ships can freely go there and if CN warships would harass those commercial ships, US Navy and Air Force will defend their cargo ships.
In Taiwan, there are thousands of US companies and banks
there. No invasion of TW, no problem. CN invasion of TW, US shd defend TW and
its companies there.
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See also:
China Watch 37, US is winning the trade-IPR conflict with China, July 14, 2019
China Watch 38, China Army to attack HK protesters? August 13, 2019
China Watch 39, Martin Jacques as CN propagandist, Sept. 12, 2019.
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