Sunday, July 14, 2019

China Watch 37, US is winning the trade-IPR conflict with China

As of last Friday, US' DJIA was at all-time high at 27,332, Nasdaq and S&P 500 also all-time high. In the past 3 years, DJIA is +50%, Nasdaq +65%; China's Shanghai is -2%, Shenzhen -22%. 

In Nov. 4 2016, days before the US Presidential elections, Shanghai was +5%, Shenzhen was +4%.
Conclusion -- Trump is good for the US, bad for China.

Many Trump-haters will be unhappy with this fact, they argue that Trump is bad for the US economy, bad for US agri and stocks, that he should have not "started the trade war" with their (silently beloved) China. But investors on both countries speak louder than these haters. Investors speak with their money and investments, not just with saliva.

Related to the SCS or WPS territorial conflict, Trump will prevail over Xi Jinping. Frequently sending his battle ships in the area, inviting Australia, UK, Japan to do the same, is an outright statement that the area is international waters, not China waters. They are on the side of the weaker SE Asia countries.

On the lesser known US vs OPEC+Russia oil war, Trump also wins. OPEC+Russia want oil to be in $70 a barrel or higher, they jointly cut their output by 1.2 million barrels per day (mbpd), extended till March 2020. But US oil output is rising, only 8.8 mbpd end Obama period, this week 12.3 mbpd. Trump and US want cheaper oil, OPEC+Russia want expensive oil. Duterte too via TRAIN law.

Some US academics like Martin Jacques will be unhappy with that chart too. He keeps spreading the fake news that "US is now a declining power. The Soviet Union failed: China is the antithesis of failure."

I have personally heard him say that in Jeju, S. Korea forum last May 30, and he repeats that in his articles. He's anti-US, pro-communist China. Which is the obvious loser in the ongoing trade/IPR conflict with the US. Loser guy.

A good lesson here -- if you are a US ally, you will likely benefit from its current trade/IPR conflict with China. Like Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar, other ASEAN countries. A number of companies which are leaving or already left China are now in Vietnam, Myanmar, Malaysia.

If President Duterte continues with his a__ licking of the Beijing govt, Trump might find a way to tell US consumers to minimize buying from PH.

Meanwhile In China, Beijing Is Losing Control Of The Economy
by Tyler Durden  Sat, 07/13/2019 - 15:15

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