Saturday, April 11, 2020

Covid 5, Co-mortality of Covid + existing diseases, Philippines

Last week April 4. I posted this in my fb wall:

Am still curious -- how many of PH virus deaths are due to pure infection vs already sick with something like mild pneumonia, cancer, diabetes, hypertension, etc then they got infection only lately? Like people who will die anyway for some diseases but are now counted as Covid deaths?

I ask that because I read the Italy Health Minister saying only about 12% of Covid deaths are due to virus infection. The rest, 88% are already sick with something and when they die, they are counted as Covid deaths. One reason why Italy deaths are highest in the world.

While many of my friends agreed with me for asking that question, a few friends turned to insults. Like this:

Josef: Where are you going with this Noy? That since the deaths are not that high lets all just go back to our normal lives and risk infecting each other, because those who will be compromised by the virus will die anyway of pre-existing conditions? That this is being blown out of proportions as to stop the world economy, when we should just treat this like any other disease? Am I correct?
... And probably the reason why doctors and medical country reports on the covid virus statistics do not have an answer to your question is because their doctors are not heartless enough to say "oh, this covid positive has diabetes, and will die of it anyway down the line, maybe 10 or 15 years from now, so lets just put his cause of death as diabetes, not covid". Only you are heartless enough to ask that question. This is so sick, I thought that even you would not think of this.

We have a long debate after that. Suffice to say that this numbers-mediocre lawyer friend just produced kilometric emotional sentences and produce zero numbers when I was exactly looking for numbers. Pathetic mind.

The main reason why I asked that question, my "agenda" for posting this -- what are the mathematical, science basis for these so many prohibitions and bawal? Prohibited/bawal to work, do business, run or take public transpo including tricycles and jeepneys, going out in a group, alcohol, etc. Many of these bawal are plain dictatorship.

Then a friend who appreciates numbers and data gave me this link,!/vizhome/COVID-19CasesandDeathsinthePhilippines/Dashboard?publish=yes

Now if co-mortality factors are included, out of 247 total Covid deaths:
(a) Covid with diabetes, 76 deaths
(b) Covid with hypertension, 103 deaths
(c) Covid with diabetes + hypertension, 52 deaths.

So taking (b) for instance, of the 247 deaths, only 134 died due to Covid infection without hypertension. But some of these 134 may have diabetes, cancer, influenza, pneumonia, previous stroke, etc.

The possibility of exaggerated cases and deaths from China virus is still high. Then governments create many draconian measures based on faulty data.

See also:
Covid reflections, Part 2, March 11, 2020 
Covid Reflections 3, Economic hysteria getting worse, March 26, 2020 

Covid Reflections 4, Global deaths from previous pandemics, April 04, 2020.

No comments: