Showing posts with label SONA 2015. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SONA 2015. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

BWorld 13, SONA's liberalism, five years after

* This is my article yesterday in BusinessWorld's Special 27th Anniversary Report, coinciding with President Aquino's 6th and last State of the Nation Address (SONA).
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PRESIDENT Benigno S. C. Aquino III will deliver his 6th and last State of the Nation Address (SONA) today, and it is a relatively safe guess that its general outline will be a report of achievements over the past five years and what the administration intends to achieve in its final 11 months.

Reviewing the past five SONAs, 2010 to 2014, it appears that in his first SONA in 2010, the President wanted to affirm the liberal ideals of a limited and clean government, dynamic market, and principled civil society. The President is from the Liberal Party, not from a nationalist or socialist party and somehow, those ideals should be reflected in his policy formulations.

The succeeding SONA from 2012 to 2014 focused more on the various welfare and subsidy programs of the administration, especially the implementation of the conditional cash transfer program. Liberalism in theory is not focused on heavy state welfare and political populism as these are the realm of socialism and conservatism. Liberalism is about having rule of law, government as enabler, judge, and policeman of the people’s three basic rights and freedom -- right to private property, right to life against aggressors, and right to liberty against dictators and bullies.

Public-private partnerships (PPPs) were among the salient pronouncements and promises of the President’s first SONA 2010. In particular:

1. Expressways: “Some… want to build an expressway from Manila that will pass through Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, until the end of Cagayan Valley, without the government having to spend a single peso.”

2. National defense. “Some... will rent the Navy headquarters on Roxas Boulevard and the Naval Station in Fort Bonifacio. They will take care of the funding necessary to transfer the Navy Headquarters to Camp Aguinaldo. Immediately, we will be given $100 million.”

3. Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT): “Projects will undergo quick and efficient processes…. a process that used to take as short as a year and as long as a decade will now only take six months.”

4. Business registration: “The never-ending horror story of registering business names, which used to take a minimum of four to eight hours depending on the day, will be cut down drastically to fifteen minutes. What used to be a check list of 36 documents will be shortened to a list of six, and the old eight-page application form will be whittled down to one page.”

Among the bills that Mr. Aquino sought from Congress were the Antitrust Law (“No monopolies, no cartels that kill competition”) and Whistleblower’s Bill “to eradicate the prevalent culture of fear and silence that has hounded our system. From 2009 to 2010 alone, cases which involved the participation of witnesses under the Witness Protection Program resulted in a ninety-five percent conviction.”

The four items above are consistent with liberalism, of lesser government intervention and more private enterprises involvement and dynamism. Also the two (and more) legislative measures.

After five years, from July 2010 to July 2015, were those four (and more) plans and promises fulfilled? Were those legislative proposals enacted into laws?

This writer interviewed Communications Secretary Herminio B. Coloma, Jr. of the Presidential Communications Operations Office about some of those issues. In particular, about #4, the business bureaucracies. Mr. Coloma said that after SONA 2010, “DTI buckled down to work immediately to simplify business registration procedures. The Philippine Economic Zone Authority also introduced minimum procedures in business registrations.”

The World Bank has been producing an important study, the Doing Business (DB) annual reports, on how easy or difficult it is to do business in different countries. Here is a summary on the Philippines. The fourth column is not part of the report, it is only added here for a comparison of positive changes or improvements, and reduction in bureaucracies; a negative figure means deterioration or increase in bureaucracies. (See chart) 


So it is true, after five years, the Philippines’ overall global ranking in “Ease of Doing Business” has improved by 49 notches. In particular, to start a new business, there is a reduction of 18 days and to get construction permits, there is a reduction of 109 days, after five years. These are good improvements.

Mr. Coloma also mentioned the Civil Service Commission’s (CSC) Citizen’s Satisfaction Center Seal of Excellence, wherein government offices are rated by the public through a Report Card Survey.

Apparently, Item #s 1 and 2 in SONA 2010, the expressway to Cagayan Valley and rental of Navy HQ in Roxas Boulevard, did not take off.

Item #3 on BOT seems to be on track as there are plenty of big PPP projects that are on-stream or being implemented. These include the North-South Railway Project, NLEx-SLEx Connector Road, and NAIA Development. PPP projects for approval include LRT Lines 4 and 6, and the Batangas-Manila (BatMan) 1 natural gas pipeline project.

The proposed Whistleblower’s Law is still pending in Congress, and it is hoped that it will become law before the end of Mr. Aquino’s term and of the current Congress.

We also asked Mr. Coloma why Mr. Aquino doesn’t seem too enthusiastic in the moves to amend the Constitution and remove economic restrictions like the prohibition or limitation of foreign investments in certain sectors and sub-sectors of the economy.

Mr. Coloma said “the President has adopted a hands-off stance so far, [is] not against it but reasonably open to it.” He added that the President is just being careful because Congress might interpret it differently and this might lead to a comprehensive amendment of the charter, not just the economic provisions.

Looking up to SONA 2015, what would be the outlook for the Palace in the next 11 months?

Mr. Coloma expressed the hope that certain priority bills would become law, like the Rationalization of Fiscal Incentives, the Tax Incentives Management and Transparency Act, and others. He also pointed out the continuing need for good governance, transparency, and institutional moorings.

It should be noted that there is more emphasis on “good governance” by the Palace as the political heat leading to the 2016 presidential election rises. The liberal ideals of limited government and, by extension, “less governance” has been muted.

The political opposition and militant civil society do not show any interest in limited government. On the contrary, they show voracious appetite for further expansion of government, provided that they are the ones occupying high government positions.

Between a liberal government with muted aspiration for more market competition and a political opposition with expressed desire for a more welfarist, more populist and interventionist government, the public have a choice.

If they wish to see a more dynamic, more competitive private enterprise, they should call for less governance. If they wish to try a welfarist, interventionist government system, the case of Greece and its huge debt and fiscally unstable economy should be a gentle reminder of the danger of this option.
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Friday, August 01, 2014

Fat Free Econ 55: The President's 5th SONA and Market-Oriented Reforms

* This is my article yesterday in interaksyon.com.
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Overall, the President's State of the Nation Address (SONA) was good. More statesman-like, less combative. He mentioned several liberal and free market-leaning policies, which is good and consistent with his party affiliation. But there was also an overall hangover belief that government can do and will do almost everything for the people.

Some liberal and free market reforms that the President mentioned in his address are the following:

1. More airline competition as a result of ICAO, European Union (EU) and US Federal Aviation Authority (FAA) upgrade of Philippine aviation security. Thus, more flights between Manila on the one hand, and Europe and the US on the other can be expected

2. More labor conciliation via Department of Labor’s Single entry Approach (SEnA), resulting in less strikes and industrial conflict, which will help attract investors.

3. More competition and less monopolization in Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) project contracts after the removal of letter of intent in public works bidding.

4. More competition in PPP projects like the Mactan-Cebu International Airport (MCIA) and NAIA Expressway. Winning bidders paid government a premium amounting to P14 billion and P11 billion, respectively.

5. Various infrastructure projects that will be undertaken by private developers at little or no cost to the government, such as (a) Tarlac-Pangasinan-La Union Expressway (TPLEX), (b) Metro Manila Skyway 3, (c) Kaliwa Dam, (d)  Laguna Lakeshore Expressway Dike, (e) LRT South and East extensions, (f) Busuanga Airport, and so on.

The President though made this opening statement which set the tone for the rest of his address: "It is as if you are watching two hundred TV channels at the same time. You need to understand not just what is unfolding before you—you also need to know what happened before, and where it could all lead.… you must have a response for every question, suggestion, and criticism—and you must have all the answers even before the questions are asked."

This is not so comfortable to hear because the President or the government is implying that they are playing God who knows everything and can provide answers to everything. It can be an invitation to central planning. I have no intention of attacking the President but would rather that he mentioned in his SONA, or in future speeches, things like the following.

1. More jobs were created by the private sector as the government has reduced business taxes and bureaucracies and other difficult/complicated requirements.

2. The projected power crisis starting next year can be addressed by DOE and other agencies stepping back from too many requirements and allowing more private power developers to come in with minimum restrictions and permits to submit.

3. Rice prices can go down by (a) deregulating rice importation and allowing more competition among legitimate importers and (b) reducing or removing the rice import tax of around 40 percent (previously 50 percent). The President mentioned that even rice importation, which should have been left to the private sector in a competitive environment, must remain: "This February, the NFA Council approved the importation of an additional 800,000 metric tons, in fulfilment of our buffer stocking requirement… This July as well, we approved the immediate importation of 500,000 metric tons of rice through open bidding. The NFA also has the standby authority to import an additional 500,000 metric tons to prepare for the effects of calamities on harvests and rice prices."

Government monopoly or full control of rice importation is so 80s or even early 90s, before the World Trade Organization (WTO) was created in 1996. We are stuck in a Jurassic philosophy that government must continue its rice importation monopoly. The protected groups in the government, both at NFA-DA and their accredited private importers, are the beneficiaries of this faulty policy. Rice should be as cheap as possible. If cheap rice should come from Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia or India, so be it. Government should reduce or abolish the high import tax and abolish the NFA monopoly. The NFA can continue as a regulator but not as player and proprietor at the same time.

4. No need for a supplemental budget for 2014 to evade the DAP controversy. Additional budget request looks questionable. The total budget in 2013 was P1.88 trillion. This year, it is P2.41 trillion (P 1.61 trillion new appropriations + P 0.80 trillion automatic appropriation), or P530 B higher than last year's budget. This is not enough? Half a trillion peso increase in just one year and not yet enough?

Table 1. Outstanding Debt, Interest Payment and Total Expenditures (in billion pesos)


Sources: (1) Bureau of Treasury (BTr), http://www.treasury.gov.ph/statdata/yearly/yr_outstandingdebt.pdf.  
* DBM, General Appropriations Act (GAA) 2014  http://www.dbm.gov.ph/wp-content/uploads/GAA/GAA2014/Summary.pdf
** New appropriations P1,608.503 billion + automatic appropriations P796.029 billion.

It is true that the government’s interest payment burden has been declining. However, a P353-billion interest payment this year is no laughing matter. The public is angry at the reported P10 billion Janet Napoles plunder in over 10 years or so, but is indifferent to the P353 billion interest payment in just one year -- a big transfer of money from average taxpayers to rich institutions like private banks and bondholders, as well as huge government financial institutions like the SSS and GSIS.

5. Expanding the AFP’s pool of battle ships, navy cutters, jet fighters, combat choppers and other armaments, the huge resources to finance them should not come largely or entirely from additional taxes or huge borrowings, but from long-term lease or privatization of certain AFP/DND assets and properties.

6. Reforming the Bureau of Customs (BOC) and appointing officials who have more integrity is a good move. But as the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) comes closer (more than one year to go) plus various bilateral and regional free trade agreements, the power of BOC to collect high import taxes and impose non-tariff measures that effectively discourage more international trade should be limited and restricted.

7. Extension of the no-timetable Agrarian Reform (AR) program or forced redistribution of certain private lands does not encourage early and big investments in agri-business and corporate farming. A Congressional bill of extended notice of coverage -- effectively an extended AR program -- should not prosper.

The President is a Liberal, not a socialist like Bayan Muna or Akbayan, nor a populist like the other political parties. Let us expect more liberal and market-oriented policies from him and his team in his remaining year.
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