Showing posts with label investments. Show all posts
Showing posts with label investments. Show all posts

Saturday, November 12, 2016

Capital liberalization and stockmarket growth in Asia

The ADB released its "Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2016" report nearly two weeks ago. I found these data interesting. These tables are cropped, I removed other countries and years to focus on these important economies in the region.

This is a good summary why the PH and TH, CN, JP and NZ, were among the best performing economies in stock market until last year. 

Another group of economies have maintained their high levels of stocks capitalization but in terms of growth and % share of GDP, they performed badly: SK, TW, ID, MY, SG and AU.



In terms of growth rates, overall there was fast recovery in 2010 for many economies after the global financial turmoil of 2008-09, then they tanked somehow. The PH and TH stocks' double-digit growth however, were sustained until 2013.


On interest rates, PH T-bill rates declined significantly, from almost 10% in 2000 to only 1.7% in 2015. Lending rates were also down, only 5+% for many economies.


These data show that capital liberalization pays off. Even in period of global financial squeezes, it is not wise for governments and central bankers to resort to capital controls because this will further squeeze and scare those investments that are still in the economy or planning to enter the economy. Capital dips and recoveries, investments up and down, are 100% part of the DNA of capital. Allow and protect, respect them. Soon they will come and stay for the long haul.
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See also: 

Monday, December 28, 2015

Investment Lib. 3, Free mobility of capital complements free trade

The benefits of free trade and trade liberalization, unilateral or bilateral or multilateral, is maximized if it is coupled with investments liberalization. Allow freer movement of goods and commodities, then allow freer movement of capital and labor, entrepreneurs and workers, employers and employees.

Vietnam (and China) is a good examples of this. It is socialist, true; the Communist Party is a political monopoly, but it allows freer trade of goods and freer mobility of capital. See these news reports for instance.

1. The lifting of ownership limit in Vietnam is not absolute of course, but still a good development overall.

"The announcement gave few other details, although it said industries such as banking that are covered by separate rules would keep ownership limits at 30 per cent."

2. "The city is extremely business-friendly. I asked a local man who works for an American company how hard it is for foreigners to invest and go into business in Hanoi. “The Vietnamese government makes it easy,” he says. “Just present them with a business plan, tell them what you want to do, and you’re good to go.” The same goes for small businesses. All you have to do, he says, “is rent the space, pay the taxes, and that’s it.”

3. "Foreign investors of a number of high-tech investment projects in Vietnam have decided to increase the investment capital and expand their production activities to timely grab the opportunities that FTAs create when they come into effect.

LG Group is another case. Its initial investment capital was $300 million to build a factory in Hai Phong. However, it then decided to increase the capital to $1.5 billion. Samsung in its export-oriented investment strategy announced its increase in investment capital by $3 billion in November 2014.

Since members of the TPP do not include China, India and Thailand, who are the direct competitors of Vietnam in the textile industry, Vietnam will have price related competitive advantage over these countries due to tax preferential treatment that TPP countries grant to Vietnam. It is expected that with the TPP, Vietnam’s textile export turnover will reach $30 billion in 2020 and $55 billion in 2030." http://www.thanhniennews.com/.../why-vietnam-is-the-most...

4. "Indonesia is now offering a tax reduction of between 10 and 100 percent for up to 15 years to firms investing a minimum of Rp 1 trillion ($71.5 million) in certain industries, the finance ministry said in a statement on its website on Monday.

The tax break can be extended for an additional five years if companies obtain permission from the finance minister. Previously, the tax break was up to 10 years and if companies qualified, they could obtain 100 percent relief.

The ministry said “pioneering” industries are those that “have wide relevance, give added value and high externality, introduce new technology and have strategic value for the national economy.”

They include maritime transport, telecommunications, downstream metal production and agricultural processing. The new incentives went into effect on Aug. 16." http://www.globalexpandia.com/.../indonesia-extends-tax.../

5. "openness to trade almost always results in high attractiveness to foreign investments and all the opportunities they bring -- technological, financial, managerial, and market access. Clear examples are HK, Singapore and Chile. Also the socialist economies China and Vietnam that allowed certain degrees of economic freedom and the market system." 
http://www.bworldonline.com/weekender/content.php?id=112142


Other studies:

1. OECD paper in 1999, "Open Markets Matter: The Benefits of Trade and Investment Liberalisation", 12 pages. http://www.oecd.org/trade/benefitlib/1948792.pdf

2. ERIA (Economic Research Institute for the ASEAN) paper in 2008, "Investment Liberalization and Facilitation: Contribution to the ASEAN Economic Community Blueprint", 15 pages.
http://www.eria.org/.../pdf/PDF%20No.1-2/No.1-2-part2-7.pdf

3. Another papper from ERIA , April 2015 by Dr. Pons Intal, "AEC Blueprint Implementation
Performance and Challenges: Investment Liberalization", 27 pages.
http://www.eria.org/ERIA-DP-2015-32.pdf

4. The major concerns of foreign investors in many countries.
A presentation by Dr. Rafaelita Fita Aldaba, 2012, "INVESTMENT FACILITATION AND LIBERALIZATION IN THE AEC: CHALLENGES FOR THE PHILIPPINES",
http://aric.adb.org/.../Investment%20Facilitation%20and...

Until 2012, the US was a major source of FDIs in the ASEAN. By 2013, capital from the US declined significantly. Investments from Japan, intra-ASEAN, UK and Netherlands are big. Data from ASEAN Investment Report 2013-2014, http://www.asean.org/.../asean-unctad-launches-asean...

"According to the World Bank, Vietnam already attracted 8.9 Billion in FDI in 2013 and is moving to relax its foreign ownership rules. Vietnam’s Prime Minister, Nguyen Tan Dung recently, signed a decree lifting their 49% foreign ownership limit on publicly listed companies. Once the decree becomes effective later this year, 100% foreign ownership in most public companies will be allowed except for some sectors covered by specific laws or related to national security. The move will make Vietnam among the most open to investment in the region, positioning it to be even more attractive to foreign investments.

The limits set by the country’s constitution on foreign equity in real estate and in key industries has set-up a half-open and restrictive business environment that has frustrated the influx of much needed FDI. PNoy and his many allies in both Houses of Congress still has the remainder of the 16th Congress to make one final push for economic reforms that will go beyond myopic political cycles." -- Prof. Dindo Manhit, ADR Institute, http://sparkbyadri.com/
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See also:
Investment liberalization,  trends and lessons, July 26, 2015
Investment liberalization 2, G7 and East Asia economies, August 06, 2015

Thursday, December 19, 2013

Fat Free Econ 50: Growth, Bubbles and the PH Economy

* This is my article yesterday in interaksyon.com
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MANILA - A few weeks ago, an article from forbes.com written by contributor Jesse Colombo, “Here’s why the Philippines’ economic miracle is really a bubble in disguise,” went viral in the social media. One may not agree with the analysis and conclusion but many data presented were useful.

The Philippines’ recent strong economic performance -- like the 7.4 percent GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2013 -- is it a miracle or a bubble in disguise, as Mr. Colombo and a few others would put it?

Chart 1. Quarterly GDP growth, 1st quarter 2009 to 2nd quarter 2013.

Source: Colombo article

An “economic bubble” simply means the value of something is a lot higher than what it should normally be, thus its price is not anchored on its real earning capacity – what we call macro fundamentals.
People should recognize that capitalism, innovation and competition is about bubbles inflating and popping in an endless cycle. For some companies, it is the cycle of expansion and contraction, with some going through a phase of bankruptcy, temporary or permanent. Capitalism without huge rewards is like religion without heaven, and capitalism without bankruptcy is like religion without sin. Innovation and competition always result in some bubbles.

To disprove Colombo’s conclusion -- that the country’s fast economic growth was a “miracle” or a “bubble in disguise” -- three data sets are outlined below, using the very same charts he cited in his article. In a sense, this is analyzing the same set of data from a different perspective.

Data A: Interest rates declining.

Both short term and 10-year bond rates are coming down. This means that there is more confidence in the long-term growth potential of the economy, even with bubbles and instabilities factored in. 

Chart 2. 10-year bond rate, unprecedented 3.61 percent. (US is 2.79 percent).

Source: Colombo article

Chart 3. Benchmark interest rates are at all-time low.

Source: Colombo article

Chart 4. Consumer loans to individuals and companies also declining.

 Source: Colombo article

The above charts show that the supply of money -- whether coming from within or from abroad -- keeps rising. In economic jargon, the supply curve is shifting to the right, resulting in lower interest rates. Graphically, this can be portrayed as follows: