Energy 160, ESG, Net zero, Gas power, and Electric vehicles

Economics is the study of proper allocation of scarce or limited resources given unlimited wants. So that shortages of commodities and high, unstable prices can be avoided. Now energy shortages are experienced in some countries as reflected in their high prices -- natgas and coal in Europe to avoid blackouts, near empty shelves in some US groceries. Political science, political narratives prevail over real economics. 

A. ESG, Net Zero fiction

ESG = Extreme Shortages Guaranteed!
By Ronald Stein. Jan 17, 2022
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/01/18/esg-extreme-shortages-guaranteed/

Experts Are Warning That Empty Shelves And Food Shortages Are Going To Continue For Many Weeks To Come
January 17, 2022 by Michael Snyder
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/experts-are-warning-that-empty-shelves-and-food-shortages-are-going-to-continue-for-many-weeks-to-come/

The Cost of Net Zero Electrification of the U.S.A.
Ken Gregory, P. Eng., Jan. 12, 2022
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/01/12/the-cost-of-net-zero-electrification-of-the-u-s-a-blog-post/

The review of the Tanton report found 10 major problems. Here I summarize only five of the problems.

1. The battery storage costs are far too low and do not account for seasonal, daily and hourly changes of S+W output.

2. Nuclear, hydro, biomass, geothermal and waste heat sources do not need to be replaces. Accepting these sources causes the fraction of power generation that should be replaced to be reduced from 90% to 60% which is the fossil fuel portion for 2020.

3. The S+W average capacity factor should be reduced from 33% to 28%.

4. Natural gas used in buildings was double counted as that volume was also included in natural gas used for power generation.

5. Costs for converting off-road vehicles (e.g., tractors) to electricity are excluded.

The Cost of Net Zero Electrification of the U.S.A. (22 pages)
By: Ken Gregory, P.Eng.  December 20, 2021
https://blog.friendsofscience.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Cost-of-Net-Zero-Electrification-of-the-USA-1.pdf

The total cost of electrification without fossil fuels is estimated at US$386 trillion and US$433 trillion using the 2019 and 2020 energy production profiles, respectively. Since the weather and consequently the battery storage costs are so variable, the actual battery storage costs would be higher than estimated here to provide a reasonable amount of contingency battery reserve. The cost of US$433 trillion is equivalent to over 20 times the US 2019 GDP. It would cost every adult (18 year and over) a total of US$1.7 million!

Cost of Electrification: A State-by-State Analysis and Results (34 pages)
Thomas Tanton, President, T2 and Associates
October 2020
https://eelegal.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/LCOE2-for-posting-9.17.2020.pdf 

Energy and Environmental Review: January 31, 2022
By John Droz, Jr. -- January 31, 2022
https://www.masterresource.org/alliance-for-wise-energy-decisions/energy-and-environmental-review-01-31-2022/

Greed Energy Economics:

*** Report: Cost of onshore wind has been rising for 20 years

*** Some Cost of Renewable Electricity Web pages

Net Zero Watch pours scorn on Tony Blair Institute claims about ‘cheap’ onshore wind

Revisiting the Keystone XL Pipeline and Joe Biden’s False Promise of ‘Green Jobs’

Activists, progressives say NY needs to spend $15B in climate fight

College symposium on climate change should look at costs of putting big solar, wind energy in rural NY

More Focus On The Impossible Costs Of A Fully Wind/Solar/Battery Energy System
Francis Menton  February 01, 2022
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2022-1-31-more-focus-on-the-impossible-costs-of-a-fully-windsolarbattery-energy-system

How Much Do The Climate Crusaders Plan To Increase Your Costs Of Electricity? -- Part III
Francis Menton  November 29, 2018
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2018-11-29-how-much-do-the-climate-crusaders-plan-to-increase-your-costs-of-electricity-part-iii?rq=andrews

Global Coal Consumption Reaches New Record High In 2021…China, India Consuming Two Thirds
By P Gosselin on 23. January 2022
https://notrickszone.com/2022/01/23/global-coal-conmsumption-reaches-a-new-record-high-in-2021-china-india-cosuming-two-thirds/

Green Wrecking Ball: Germany Clearing “Undisturbed” 1000-Year Old Forest, Make Way For Massive Wind Park
By P Gosselin on 4. February 2022
https://notrickszone.com/2022/02/04/green-wrecking-ball-germany-clearing-1000-year-old-forest-to-make-way-for-massive-wind-park/

B. Gas power

Gas gap in Europe drives U.S. LNG exports to record high 
By Reuters. By Marcy de Luna and Nina Chestney  Updated: 06/01/2022
https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/01/06/usa-lng-exports

Can the US find enough natural gas sources to neutralize Russia’s energy leverage over Europe?
Amy Myers Jaffe, Research professor, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University
January 31, 2022 1.01pm GMT
https://theconversation.com/can-the-us-find-enough-natural-gas-sources-to-neutralize-russias-energy-leverage-over-europe-175824

Fossil fuels account for more than 70% of Europe's energy supply, with a growing share coming from natural gas

U.S. sellers have been able to supply more gas to Europe by diverting export cargoes, rather than by selling gas that would otherwise have been used domestically. In my view, if U.S. natural gas prices rise in the coming weeks, winter weather is likely to be a bigger driver than LNG exports.

Explainer: Could more LNG supplies get to Europe in the event of a crisis?
By Scott Disavino  January 26, 2022  6:31 AM GMT+8
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/could-more-lng-supplies-get-europe-event-crisis-2022-01-25/

Gas reserves in Russia will last more than 100 years — Miller
Chairman of the Gazprom Board of Directors Alexei Miller noted that Russian gas reserves are the largest in the world
17 SEP 2021, 19:37
https://tass.com/economy/1339019#:~:text=MOSCOW,%20September%2017.%20%2F%20TASS,of%20the%20International%20Business%20Congress.

Natural Gas is a Bridge to Nowhere
by Paul Hockenos  07 Jan 2021
https://energytransition.org/2021/01/23585/

UK Gas Production Could Plunge 75% By 2030
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 28, 2022, 10:00 AM CST
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/UK-Gas-Production-Could-Plunge-75-By-2030.html

Biden Blows Up Yet Another Gas Pipeline
Clarice Feldman • 30 Jan, 2022 •
https://the-pipeline.org/9983-2/

Take seven-billion-dollar Eastern Mediterranean Gas Pipeline. In August of 2020 I reported how the Greeks, Cypriots, and Israelis  had coordinated plans for a 1,200-mile undersea pipeline connecting Israeli and Cypriot gas fields to Greece and then to Europe.

President Trump  supported the pipeline. But President Biden, in a “non -paper” (an unofficial communication), has notified the Greek government that we are no longer supporting the project, allegedly because it posed a security threat to the region. Except, of course, when Russia wanted waivers to build Nord Stream 2,  a non-green gas pipeline to Europe, it had no such qualms.

Natural Gas as a ‘Bridge Fuel’: Back to the 1980s/90s
By Robert Bradley Jr. -- February 2, 2022
https://www.masterresource.org/enronken-lay/natural-gas-bridge-fuel-1980s-1990s/

Dwindling French Gas Stockpiles Stoke Fears Of Winter Blackouts
TYLER DURDEN   FRIDAY, FEB 04, 2022 - 05:45 AM
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/dwindling-french-gas-stockpiles-stoke-fears-winter-blackouts

C. E-vehicles

2021: The Year the Electric Vehicle Batteries Burned
Eric Worrall.  Jan 2, 2022
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/01/02/2021-the-year-the-electric-vehicle-batteries-burned/

The Real Brake on America’s Electric-Vehicle Revolution
Capital is pouring into U.S. EV and battery plants, but not into the foundations of a domestic battery industry, leaving the supply chain uncomfortably dependent on China
Stephen Wilmot. Jan. 28, 2022 5:30 am ET
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-real-brake-on-americas-electric-vehicle-revolution-11643365805
------------------

See also:
Energy 157, Blackout-friendly RE, Europe experience and lessons for the PH, December 18, 2021
Energy 158, Europe rolling blackout, Germany's anti-nuke anti-coal policy, December 25, 2021
Energy 159, US coal, gas, oil production vs solar, February 03, 2022.

BWorld 526, Economic stagnation, de-industrialization, and lockdown in the Philippines

* My column in BusinessWorld, January 27, 2022.
----------

The Philippines’ GDP growth of 5.6% in 2021 looks good considering that we experienced a deep contraction of -9.6% in 2020. But is this growth really good?

The quick answer is “No.” We look at actual values of production of goods and services, not just percentage changes, and data from the excel file of the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) show that 2021 GDP numbers are more comparable with 2018 than 2019 levels.

One, GDP size in 2021 of P18.5 trillion is way below the 2019 level of P19.5 trillion, and slightly higher than the 2018 level of P18.3 trillion. That is nearly three years of production backwardness despite the Philippine population expanding by about 4.5 million people in those three years.

Two, household consumption, which comprises about 73% of total GDP, has expanded only by P206 billion from 2018 to 2021. Consumer confidence remains weak and muted.

Three, government consumption, which comprise about 13% of GDP, has expanded by P638 billion or three times the GDP level. Government was giving out more subsidies, paying in full the salaries, allowances, and bonuses of government personnel while joblessness in the private sector is high.

Four, capital formation or investments, which comprise about 25% of GDP, has declined big time, by nearly P1 trillion. Many businesses went bankrupt, many planned investments did not push through.

Five, imports of goods and services declined big time at nearly P4.5 trillion.

Six, in the GDP by supply or industry contributions, agriculture and fishery, which comprise about 10% of GDP, has flat output from 2018-2021.

Seven, considering the industry sector that comprises 30% of GDP, we have de-industrialized by P50 billion the past three years. While there was a modest increase in manufacturing output, construction output has declined by P145 billion.

Eight, the services sector that comprises the remaining 60% of GDP has increased by only P281 billion; banking, insurance and e-money services have increased by P351 billion.

The continued economic stagnation and business uncertainties were created by the government’s indefinite lockdown policy, exacerbated by its vaccine discrimination and segregation policy, a soft or implicit kind of mandatory vaccination.

Indefinite lockdown and vax discrimination do not work in reducing COVID-19 cases and deaths as shown by the record-high level of cases in late December to January 2022. Lockdowns and vax discrimination only work at reducing economic activities and people’s livelihood.

The IATF (Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases) should lift all lockdowns, or at least reduce the mobility Alert Levels 2 and 3 to Level 1. Starting Feb. 1, next week.
---------------

See also:
BWorld 523, Philippines’ monthly birth and death data show that indefinite lockdown and mass vaccination are wrong, January 20, 2022
BWorld 524, The transportation sector and the motorcycle taxi, February 01, 2022
BWorld 525, Major power companies, the Indonesia coal export ban, and the PCCI election, February 03, 2022.

Covid 68, Dictatorial mass vaccination of children 5-11 yo

Tomorrow, Feb. 7, the DOH and IATF will start their dictatorial mass vaccination of children who are 5-11 years old. 

Last night, the Concerned Doctors and Citizens of the Philippines (CDC Ph) held its weekly Huddle about this treacherous and risky plan of mass vaccination of minor children.

Mari is a veteran tv and broadcast personality for decades now. Doc Marivic is a Filipina-American physician based in Florida, USA. Atty Tanya is a Professor at UP Law and Ateneo Law.

Here is a recording of the Huddle last night:

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/107617331530041/videos/362099002408361/

Rumble: https://rumble.com/vu3wkd-cdc-ph-weekly-huddle-feb-5-2022-noli-me-tangere.html

Here are among the feedback and comments in the chat box:

A good post by Anthony shared by a friend:

This is the DOH Order:

Perhaps the most controversial, or the most dictatorial, part of the order is the last paragraph of Annex A (page 20 of 26):

The DOH and IATF have coordinated with DepEd and teachers in public and private schools will work to convince, some may even threaten, their pre-school and elementary students to be vaxxed. When young minds have been convinced already to be vaxxed and some parents do not want this, then DSWD and local governments will take over and overrule the parents.

Imagine a 5, 6 or 7 yo child can go to DSWD or Brgy center and say "I want to be vaxxed, that's what our teacher has been telling us in class 5 days a week but my parents won’t allow me", and DSWD can vax the child.

This situation arises when a supposedly private, decentralized service like healthcare has become centralized nationalized and politicized. Individual doctors can be reprimanded even threatened earlier with withrawal of license simply bec the doctor has used Ivermectin to his/her patients. Healthcare is mainly a patient-physician trust. Now govt mandate segregate subjugate has entered the 5-11 yo territory, even non-sick, no symptom children for 2 yrs lockdown will be vaxxed. If parents refuse, government will push its way.
---------

Alliance of Dabawenyos for Freedom and Informed Choice (AFFIC)
Feb. 3, 2022

Our position appeared in the Philippine Daily Inquirer today calling to STOP THE VAxxINATION ROLLOUT FOR CHILDREN!

We, at AFFIC are immensely grateful to doctors, lawyers, parents, professionals and all concerned citizens who participated in the recently concluded webinar entitled : “Mga Bata : Dabat Bang Pabakunahan Laban sa Covid? A conversation with doctors and lawyers” last February 2 who contributed to its huge success. More and more people are clamoring to STOP THE COVID VAxxINATION ROLLOUT FOR CHILDREN!

Consistent with our mission of advancing children’s protection in the face of Covid 19, we, the Alliance of Filipinos for Freedom and Informed Choice,  stand that the vaccination of our children against Covid 19 does not meet the established principle of first ensuring that no harm is done. It is a grave act  of child rights violation because vaccinating children for Covid-19 exposes them to risks that far outweigh the hoped-for benefit, especially given that children have an extremely low risk from this disease. There is absolutely no justification to hurry the vaccination and put children in harm’s way at this time.  

We call on the parents, teachers, and all adults in child-caring roles to be more discerning and courageous in resisting the rush to vaccinate our  children against Covid 19. As carers of our children, we are also duty-bound to protect our children at all cost. Let us not forget that the pharmaceutical  industry is not legally and medically liable for any adverse vaccination effect, so who’s left to stand for our children? Let us not waive and relinquish our  accountability over our children’s lives. Let us read on and listen to more sound and holistic science! Let us be open to wait for more time and never allow  social pressure to get in the way of seeing and ensuring our children’s best interest to live a naturally healthy life.  

Each young life matters.  

#resisttherush.  #safertowait.  #handsoffourchildren
#stopthevaccinerollout.  #upholdRA11525.  #quashmandatoryvaccination

Related infographics:

-----------

More reports here:

1. "Kawalan ng pananagutan ng gobyerno, isa sa mga inirereklamo ng mga magulang na tutol sa bakunahan ng mga bata"
24 Oras, GMA,  Feb 4, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsBy1SMYxSA

2. 4 NCR MAYORS: 'No parents' consent, no jabs for children'
By Arlie O. Calalo, Catherine S. Valente and Red Mendoza.  February 6, 2022
https://www.manilatimes.net/2022/02/05/news/4-ncr-mayors-to-enforce-no-parents-consent-no-vaccination-for-kids/1831904

3. 37,927 Deaths and 3,392,632 Injuries Following COVID Shots in European Database as Young People Continue to Die
by Brian Shilhavy. Editor, Health Impact News   January 19, 2022

https://healthimpactnews.com/2022/37927-deaths-and-3392632-injuries-following-covid-shots-in-european-database-as-young-people-continue-to-die/

https://www.adrreports.eu/en/index.html

Here is the summary data through January 15, 2022.

Total reactions for the mRNA vaccine Tozinameran (code BNT162b2,Comirnaty) from BioNTech/ Pfizer: 17,054 deaths and 1,624,526 injuries to 15/01/2022

• 45,865   Blood and lymphatic system disorders incl. 238 deaths
• 53,606   Cardiac disorders incl. 2,459 deaths
• 500        Congenital, familial and genetic disorders incl. 52 deaths
• 21,641   Ear and labyrinth disorders incl. 11 deaths
• 1,727     Endocrine disorders incl. 5 deaths
• 24,752   Eye disorders incl. 38 deaths
• 128,813 Gastrointestinal disorders incl. 673 deaths
• 403,800 General disorders and administration site conditions incl. 4,871 deaths
• 1,855     Hepatobiliary disorders incl. 85 deaths
• 17,690   Immune system disorders incl. 88 deaths
• 71,334   Infections and infestations incl. 1,829 deaths
• 31,663   Injury, poisoning and procedural complications incl. 321 deaths
• 40,469   Investigations incl. 492 deaths
• 10,933   Metabolism and nutrition disorders incl. 271 deaths
• 193,866 Musculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders incl. 209 deaths
• 1,534     Neoplasms benign, malignant and unspecified (incl cysts and polyps) incl. 144 deaths
• 266,754 Nervous system disorders incl. 1,807 deaths
• 2,384     Pregnancy, puerperium and perinatal conditions incl. 72 deaths
• 241        Product issues incl. 3 deaths
• 29,339   Psychiatric disorders incl. 198 deaths
• 5,857     Renal and urinary disorders incl. 261 deaths
• 63,007   Reproductive system and breast disorders incl. 7 deaths
• 69,276   Respiratory, thoracic and mediastinal disorders incl. 1,833 deaths
• 74,806   Skin and subcutaneous tissue disorders incl. 140 deaths
• 3,643     Social circumstances incl. 22 deaths
• 18,264   Surgical and medical procedures incl. 185 deaths
• 40,907   Vascular disorders incl. 740 deaths
  

See also:
Covid 65, CDC Ph Statement on MMDA lockdown of unvaxxed, New all-time high cases, January 08, 2022
Covid 66, CDC Ph Press Statement on SP Sotto and PAO Chief Acosta defense of unvaccinated people, January 20, 2022
Covid 67, CDC Ph Press con on Government Covid response, February 02, 2022.

Mining 63, Consumer applications of mineral products

I like this infographics from WUWT. 

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/02/01/biden-maladministration-now-cancelling-mining-leases/

The author, David Middleton, observed that "production of the 'copper, nickel, cobalt and platinum group metals' required for wind turbines, EV batteries and all of the other Unicorns they believe can replace fossil fuels."

Another good infographic,

https://roboticsandautomationnews.com/2018/07/07/infographic-the-mined-minerals-inside-the-devices-you-use-every-day/18132/

As an old adage says, "If you can't plant-harvest it, you have to mine it."

----------------

See also:
Mining 60, High metal prices -- cobalt, lithium, copper, tin,... March 18, 2021
Mining 61, PH lifting mining ban via EO 130, April 20, 2021
Mining 62, Open pit mining should continue and expand, January 09, 2022.

BWorld 525, Major power companies, the Indonesia coal export ban, and the PCCI election

* My column in BusinessWorld, Jan. 24, 2022.
------------

Most power generation companies (gencos) — those that own big power plants and ensure we have 24/7 electricity except when there are major technical problems or natural calamities — also suffered major declines in revenues and net income in 2020’s lockdown and pandemic.

TOP ENERGY COMPANIES

I checked the BusinessWorld Top 1,000 Corporations report, and saw that the biggest energy companies in the Philippines are Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) with P266 billion gross revenue in 2020 (ranked #1 in the Top 1,000), followed by the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) with P49.25B (ranked #36). But for this piece, I focus on gencos. I will tackle the distribution utilities (DUs) like Meralco, retail electricity suppliers, and NGCP in a future column.

The biggest gencos in the country are owned by San Miguel Corp. (SMC), followed by the Lopez Group/First Gen, then the Aboitiz Group. Some companies here did not have data for 2019 so I just extrapolated the numbers from the percent change in the 2020 data.

One notable trend is the big net income in 2020 of two SMC companies despite a decline in gross revenues and the COVID-19 lockdown. The same for two First Gen companies. The Ayala power company saw a big net income in 2020. These may be windfall income from high and expensive feed-in tariff (FIT) as these two conglomerates have big wind farms that are FIT-recipients.

Two companies of the Aboitiz group experienced net losses and low net income, with TeaM companies suffering a huge drop in net income (see Table).

INDONESIA’S TEMPORARY COAL EXPORT BAN

Meanwhile, notice these recent articles and stories in BusinessWorld:

1. “Power struggles” by Romeo Bernardo, Opinion page (Jan. 23),

2. “Indonesia assures PHL on coal supply” (Jan. 23),

3. “ERC assures power will be sufficient during election” (Jan. 23),

4. “Spot market trading resumes for Visayas grid except Bohol” (Jan. 19),

5. “Diversified power needed in response to unpredictable coal supply — PCCI” (Jan. 18).

All these reports except #4 are related. In his Opinion piece, Romy observed that, “Indonesia supplies over 95% of the Philippine’s coal imports. Coal-based plants, which comprise 44% of the power sector’s dependable capacity in 2020 and close to 60% of power generation, rely mainly on Indonesian coal… the closest alternative, Australian coal, costs more because of the higher quality, and is not even a perfect substitute, i.e., the plants were not designed to run on it.”

Partly because of this, scenarios of yellow-red alerts during the May election and vote validations are being considered, and this will have some political implications.

Good thing that Indonesia will prioritize the Philippines when it resumes its coal exports, according to Department of Trade and Industry Secretary Ramon Lopez. Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy perhaps over-reacted when state power firm Perusahaan Listrik Negara announced “critically low” coal inventory held by domestic power plants, raising the risk of power outages.

This column showed that Indonesia still has a high coal Reserves/Production (R/P) ratio in 2020 of 62 years, meaning that if we assume its coal production (domestic use + exports) will continue yearly, the estimated coal reserves will run out or be depleted in 62 years. For other countries, the coal R/P ratio in 2020 are: Vietnam, 69 years; India, 145 years; Australia, 315 years; and the US, 514 years. See https://www.bworldonline.com/europes-blackout-economics-and-the-philippines-path-to-brownouts/ (Dec. 27, 2021).

VISAYAS BLACKOUT DUE TO TYPHOON AND MERALCO SUPPORT

Report number 4 is related to Typhoon Rai (local name: Odette) which on Dec. 16 last year hit northern Mindanao and many Visayan islands and provinces — southern Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, Negros, even southern Iloilo. The Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) in the Visayas was suspended for one month due to power oversupply as demand was curtailed by knocked out distribution posts and cables.

Bohol and Cebu were particularly badly hit, and Meralco sent dozens of engineers, linemen, and support personnel, also vehicles, heavy equipment, and gensets for power restoration efforts in some parts of the province. See “Cebu coops extol Meralco for assisting the province” (Tribune, Jan. 6).

While there is an oversupply of power in Cebu, Bohol is power deficit because it relies mainly on geothermal power “imported” from Leyte plus its own diesel gensets run by NPC. Bohol should have its own coal plants like its neighbor Cebu to be more self-reliant in power generation.

PCCI ENERGY POSITION, RECENT ELECTION

Report #5 quotes new Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) President George Barcelon as saying that PCCI highlights the need for more transmission lines and the upgrading of existing facilities, adding that “While variable renewable energy resources could be rapidly deployed in certain areas, coal is still critical to fuel the country’s economy because it is the most stable source of energy.” Good observation.

On another note, my friend and fellow BusinessWorld columnist Andrew Masigan, in his Philippine Star column, wrote a scathing attack on the PCCI election held on Dec. 3 where Mr. Barcelon was elected as the organization’s new President for 2022-2023. He wrote, “It’s a shame that such an embarrassing row has besmirched the reputation of the prestigious PCCI. It just proves that the organization needs new blood to re-institute professionalism and greater participation among members.” (“Dirty politics mars the PCCI,” Andrew J. Masigan, Philippine Star, Jan. 19).

I understand the need to have young blood in the PCCI leadership, but whatever reforms in the election procedures and other rules should have been discussed, agreed on, and instituted early in the two-year term (2020-2021) of the past President and not rushed at the last few months of his term. So the result of the election should be respected. When proposed late reforms like banning a past President from running again for the same position are not agreed on early on, then the ban should not apply.

PCCI is the biggest business organization in the country. Its leadership position on energy realism and not alarmism is important because its advise to the government has strong weight and value.
---------------

See also:
BWorld 522, Top 10 economic news of 2021, January 09, 2022
BWorld 523, Philippines’ monthly birth and death data show that indefinite lockdown and mass vaccination are wrong, January 20, 2022
BWorld 524, The transportation sector and the motorcycle taxi, February 01, 2022.

Energy 159, US coal, gas, oil production vs solar

I like this article by David Middleton:

U.S. to shutter 14.9 GW of coal-fired & add 46.1 GW of utility scale solar PV in 2022
David Middleton. January 12, 2022.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/01/12/us-to-shutter-14-9-gw-of-coal-fired-and-add-46-1-gw-of-utility-scale-solar-pv-in-2022/

Nuclear power plants generally have a 95% theoretical capacity factor and nearly 100% utilization rates. Therefore, their realized capacity factors are usually >90%. 

The theoretical capacity factor of coal-fired power plants is about 85%. The realized capacity factor is variable and tied to the price of natural gas. The higher natural gas prices go, the greater the utilization rate of coal-fired power plants.

Source:  https://www.powermag.com/electric-power-generation-coal-is-currently-a-vital-component/

Utility scale solar PV power plants achieve an average capacity factor of 25%.

Source: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=39832

The theoretical output of 14.9 GW of coal-fired capacity is greater than the average achieved capacity factor of solar PV. And the actual output of solar PV is generally the maximum achievable output.

    Cap. Factor GW     GWh/yr

Coal 85%         14.9       110,945

Solar PV 25%         46.1         99,747

When you replace dependable, 24/7/365 base load with this:

You get a “duck curve“…

------------

See US crude oil production, in million barrels per day (mbpd):

3rd week Jan. 2013, end of Obama 1st term, 6.99

3rd week Jan 2017, end of Obama 2nd term, 8.96

Jan 2018, Trump 1st year, 9.92

Jan. 2019, Trump 2nd year, 11.9

Jan. 2020, Trump 3rd year, 13.00

(and world oil prices were low, US became a major oil and gas exporter under Trump)
Lockdowns started March 2020, low oil demand, reduced supply.

Jan. 2021, Trump 4th & last year, 11.0

Jan 2022, Biden 1st year, 11.5.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

US gasoline prices been rising, especially since Jan. 2021 when Biden came to the White House.

Natgas prices too. Basic supply-demand. Biden restricts oil-gas supply while demand increases. The killing of Keystone pipeline that will bring Canada oil sands to the US cheaper for refinery. The cancellation of fracking for oil-gas in federal lands. 

Among the reasons why US inflation last December, 7.0%, at 39-years high, since 1982.

Other good articles:

1. Oil and gas discoveries are at the lowest level since 1946
By Michael J. Coren  December 28, 2021
https://qz.com/2107452/oil-and-gas-discoveries-are-at-the-lowest-level-since-1946/

The oil and gas industry is on track to discover just 4.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) by the end of 2021, its worst performance in 75 years, according to the research firm Rystad Energy.

2. German Household Electricity Prices Reach New Record High In 2021…Share Of Green Electricity Falls!

By P Gosselin on 11. January 2022

https://notrickszone.com/2022/01/11/german-household-electricity-prices-reach-new-record-high-in-2021-share-of-green-electricity-falls/

3. Why Democrats Make Energy Expensive (And Dirty)
Michael Shellenberger. Jan. 11, 2022
https://michaelshellenberger.substack.com/p/why-democrats-make-energy-expensive

4. Europe’s energy calamity offers a global teaching moment – do not try this at home
Terry Etam  December 18, 2021 
https://publicenergynumberone.com/2021/12/18/europes-energy-calamity-offers-a-global-teaching-moment-do-not-try-this-at-home/

5. Fossil Fuel Generation Outpaces Renewables in 2021 – IEA
Paul Homewood  Jan. 14, 2022
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2022/01/14/fossil-fuel-generation-outpaces-renewables-in-2021-iea/

6. ENERGY CRISIS Families are “rationing fuel or turning off fridge freezers” due to soaring energy prices – how to get help
Marc SHOFFMAN. 16:27, 13 Jan 2022
https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/17313864/families-rationing-due-to-soaring-energy-get-help/

7. How green policies are fuelling the energy crisis
We have swapped abundant and reliable sources of energy for intermittent renewables.
ROB LYONS.  9th January 2022
https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/01/09/how-green-policies-are-fuelling-the-energy-crisis/

8. Energy industry blames Biden’s oil-and-gas crackdown for higher
Valerie Richardson - Wednesday, January 12, 2022
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/jan/12/energy-industry-blames-bidens-oil-and-gas-crackdow/
--------------

See also:
Energy 156, More on Europe going back to coal and gas, October 14, 2021 
Energy 157, Blackout-friendly RE, Europe experience and lessons for the PH, December 18, 2021
Energy 158, Europe rolling blackout, Germany's anti-nuke anti-coal policy, December 25, 2021.

Covid 67, CDC Ph Press con on Government Covid response

This afternoon, I was one of five speakers in the Concerned Doctors and Citizens of the Philippines (CDC Ph) press conference. The four other speakers were Dr. Homer Lim, CDC Ph President; Dr. Benigno "Iggy" Agbayani Jr., Past President of CDC Ph; Atty. Tanya Lat, Professor at UP Law, Ateneo Law; and George Barcelon, President of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI). Program hosts were Mari Kaimo, Eli Abella and Francis Abraham, moderator for the media QnA was Dean Bernales.

-----------------

See also:
Covid 64, All-time high new Covid cases in high-vax countries, December 30, 2021
Covid 65, CDC Ph Statement on MMDA lockdown of unvaxxed, New all-time high cases, January 08, 2022
Covid 66, CDC Ph Press Statement on SP Sotto and PAO Chief Acosta defense of unvaccinated people, January 20, 2022.

BWorld 524, The transportation sector and the motorcycle taxi

* My article in BusinessWorld, January 17, 2022. 

The transportation sector — air, water, and land — is among the sectors which have been most adversely affected by the pandemic scare and government lockdowns. While overall GDP in 2020 contracted -9.6%, the transportation and storage industry contracted -31%.

In the first three quarters of 2021, while overall GDP grew 5.1%, the transportation and storage sector grew 6.6% and land transport in particular grew 8.9%, and it comprised 50% of total production of services of the sector (Table 1).

LAND TRANSPORTATION IN TOP 1,000 CORPORATIONS

I checked the performance of land transport companies that belong to the BusinessWorld Top 1,000 corporations, and saw that the numbers are interesting.

First, only one bus company, only one provider of public utility (PU) cars, and two rail companies managed to land in the Top 1,000. And second, trains that move big number of passengers suffered a big decline in gross revenue and net income in 2020. The same could be said of the bus company due to the prolonged lockdown, while the PU car company Grab Philippines managed to grow in net income (Table 2).

This implies that during the pandemic and lockdown, people have avoided mass transportation trains and buses and have used more private vehicles, or have ridden PU cars and motorcycles. The mandatory social distancing and fear of being physically close to strangers in public transport while keeping their cost of mobility low means that demand for private, cheaper transport will stay or increase. Motorcycle taxis would be the fastest and cheapest mode of transportation for poor people who do not have private vehicles, or, even if they can afford to buy a motorcycle, are scared to drive one.

MOTORCYCLE TAXI DUOPOLY

Currently, a motorcycle taxi (MCT) duopoly — comprised of Joyride and Angkas — was appointed and authorized by the government via the MCT Technical Working Group (MCT TWG) composed of the Department of Transportation, the Land Transportation Office, the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board, the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority, the Philippine National Police, and the Inter-Agency Council for Traffic or I-ACT. There is no law from Congress yet that authorizes MCT so these agencies in the Executive branch arrogated legislative power upon themselves.

Technically there are three players (Joyride, Angkas, and Move It) authorized by the TWG which also excluded a fourth player, Grab, for no clear reason, in the pilot project to study MCT. But Move It is too small so it partnered with Grab which has millions of subscribers, potential drivers, and passengers. Since the TWG has killed the Move It-Grab partnership and Move It is back to being an insignificant player, it is a de facto duopoly.

The supply of MCT is not enough so a fourth black-market MCT — “habal-habal” or unregistered MCT — appeared to fill the supply gap, and there are thousands of them nationwide especially in Davao City and the rest of Mindanao. See these reports in BusinessWorld:

1. “Panel admits two more firms for extended motorcycle taxi trials” (Dec. 20, 2019)

2. “Grab ‘seriously considering’ motorcycle taxi business anew” (Oct. 29, 2020)

3. “Davao City to legalize, regulate motorcycle taxis” (May 9, 2021)

4. “Grab PHL, MOVE IT partner for motorcycle taxi hailing services” (Sept. 23, 2021).

The Move It-Grab partnership was allowed by the TWG to operate on Sept. 23 last year, then disallowed by Oct. 1. Perhaps that one week proved to be too successful and popular with many new drivers and passengers.

By Dec. 10, the TWG officially and permanently terminated the Grab-Move It collaboration. It recognized that the partnership had generated jobs and served the public, but still decided to stop the partnership. The TWG added that new players can come in only if the bill in Congress legalizing MCT becomes a law.

As of November 2020, the duopoly has 10,400 riders (6,400 from Angkas, 4,000 from Joyride) even if the TWG has authorized 46,713 MCT in February 2020. This means tens of thousands of units have been filled up by illegal MCT while the TWG has restricted and continues to restrict new legal MCT players. See this column’s article, https://www.bworldonline.com/tax-pressure-and-motorcycle-taxis/ (Dec. 13, 2021).

HOUSE COMMITTEE REPORT (CR) NO. 1364

On Dec. 6, 2021, the House of Representatives Committee on Transportation reported out CR No. 1364 and filed as House Bill (HB) 10571, “An Act Regulating the Operation of Motorcycles-for-hire,” substituting dozens of earlier bills allowing and regulating MCT. The bill has about 50 legislator-authors and was submitted by Congressman Edgar Mary S. Sarmiento, Chairperson of the House Committee on Transportation.

The new bill has many good provisions. It recognizes Motorcycles-For-Hire as Common Carriers via a transportation network company (TNC) or Online E-Commerce platform provider (OEPP) under Section 5; it sets the Standards and Specifications of Motorcycles (Section 7) and Qualifications of Drivers (Section 10); it allows their franchising and set the franchise requirements (Sections 8 and 9). It also sets Accreditation Requirements of TNCs and OEPPs (Section 11) and so on.

In short, the new HB 10571 sets the formal and permanent recognition of MCTs, regardless of the number of players, in very transparent ways, unlike the non-transparency of the TWG that anointed only a duopoly.

MORE BIG PLAYERS NEEDED

Many agencies in government have the habit of scuttling new and big but transparent players and keep certain sectors of the economy to be served by a few small but bureaucracy-favored players.

Consider the following lists:

• In the Financial Times story “Asia-Pacific High-Growth Companies 2021,” it said many companies from Singapore (Carro, SCI Commerce,…), Indonesia (Kioson, Dana Brata), Malaysia (Carsome, SupplyCart), Thailand (SkillLane) were in the Top 100, there were none from the Philippines.

• In the UN Conference on Trade and Development report “Top 100 non-financial multinational enterprises (MNEs) from developing and transition economies 2019,” several companies from Malaysia (Petronas, Genting) and Singapore (Trafigura, Wilmar) made the list, while there were none from the Philippines.

• The Deloitte report “Technology Fast 500 Asia Pacific 2020 Ranking” was dominated by companies from China, India, Japan, Australia, and South Korea, with eight companies from the ASEAN making it to the list like Malaysia’s ARB Berhad, Indonesia’s PT Tokopedia, Singapore’s Blue Wireless PTE. Not one came from the Philippines.

MORE COMPETITION NEEDED

The TWG is wrong and acted against public interest in anointing a duopoly, Joyride and Angkas, to operate without legislation while waiting for the final legislation. It deprived thousands of aspiring MCT drivers from joining legal players with the right to earn income. It deprived thousands of passengers additional choice and options.

The TWG can correct these pitfalls by allowing more players while waiting for Congress to pass HB 10571 into a law since there is already a counterpart Senate bill.

Congress should hasten the legislation of MCT, allow more players and more competition. It is campaign season already, the current legislators can expect more votes from tens of thousands of potential new drivers, and perhaps millions of potential passengers if they are given more choices in getting cheap and fast public mobility.
----------------

See also:
BWorld 521, Europe’s blackout economics and the Philippines’ path to brownouts, December 31, 2021 
BWorld 522, Top 10 economic news of 2021, January 09, 2022
BWorld 523, Philippines’ monthly birth and death data show that indefinite lockdown and mass vaccination are wrong, January 20, 2022.