Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Asian stocks and the virus, Part 3

From the GDP growth in Q1 2020 below, an updated data for Asia that includes the Philippines here:

No/Light lockdowns: Vietnam 3.8%, Indonesia 3.0%, Taiwan 1.5%, S. Korea 1.3%.

Hard lockdowns: Hong Kong -8.9%, China -6.8%, Singapore -2.2%, Philippines -0.2%.

There. More/hard lockdowns do not really lead to lower deaths per million population, only lead to economic contraction. And now President Duterte and the IATF announced today an extension of the "modified" ECQ for Metro Manila and two provinces, Laguna and Cebu.

I checked the stockmarkets in AsPac today. The PSE remains the worst performing, both year to date (Ytd, Jan. 01 to May 12, 2020) and the past 52 weeks.


I looked back at my last review of the regional stockmarket, last March 16, PSE was the 2nd worst performing then, next to Thailand.

The extension of M.Manila lockdown from the original target of April 15 to April 30 was wrong. Extension to May 15 was also wrong. And now extension to May 31 is even wrong.

I posted these random thoughts tonight in my fb wall:

The dictatorship minded have won again, applause. 2 1/2 months of "bawal-bawal" prohibitions until May 31. GDP contraction, what's that for them? They are saving "hundreds of thousands of lives" in PH, a fictional figure taken from bolang kristal.

Meanwhile, 5 days ago Mr. Original lockdown Salceda expressed favoring the easing of the ECQ rather than its extension. Too late, Mr Congressman. The dictatorship-minded have enjoyed the great powers they have now. Next time, be careful what you wish for. You might get it and too late to cancel or discontinue.

Bawal-bawal is pera-pera, money-money. Madami bawal, madaming huli, madaming pakiusap, pera pera. In an open economy, income source is decentralized, people earn from many sources, little opportunity for corruption and robbery in government.

In ECQ de subsidy, many people's income is centralized, SAP cash and helicopter money from the government, which presents big opportunity for corruption and robbery. If people think that the virus has suddenly transformed the corrupt into angels, then good luck.

See also:
Asian stocks and the virus, March 02, 2020 
Asian stocks and the virus, Part 2, March 13, 2020.

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