Climate Tricks 9: Ignore Skepticism, Flat-lining Temps

Here are some updates on the climate front. The trick of the warmists is to ignore literatures that are skeptical of their claims, like the flat-lining, or even declining, global temperatures.
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(1) From NTZ,

Watershed Conference…German Coalition Government FDP Party To Hold FIRST EVER Skeptical Conference

By P Gosselin on 11. Juni 2012

Hell must have frozen over!

Climate science skepticism in Germany now has spread from a few once marginalized groups over to the junior member of Germany’s coalition CDU-FDP government, the Free Democrats Party (FDP). Hat tip: Ökowatch.

Coalition government FDP party invitation questions climate dogma – announces skeptical climate and energy conference.

The FDP is holding a skeptic conference at the end of this month. This is the first time any political party in Germany holds a “skeptic” conference, and thus marks a watershed event in Germany when it comes to climate science skepticism. Make no mistake – it’s a clear signal....

(2) From ICECAP, Joe D'Aleo, 
Records and Extremes -- Updated


Looking back over the last century, you can explain global temperatures by ENSO and volcanism and the ocean multidecadal cycles that favor a particular ENSO state. Here is the plot since 1979 of all data sets with ENSO and volcanism indicated.

El Ninos bring a short term warming, La Ninas a dip in global temperatures. The warmn mode of
the Pacific from 1977 to 1998, led to a net warming. Major volcanoes produce a cooling as we
saw in the early 1980s and early 1990s, lack of volcanism (like we have seen since the middle
1990s) means more solar radiation at the surface and enhanced warming.



(3) From Dr. Roy Spencer,
UAH Global Temperature Update for May 2012: +0.29°C
June 4th, 2012

The global Average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for May 2012 (+0.29 °C) changed little from April (+0.30 °C), with some warming to near-average temperatures in the tropics being balanced by a little cooling in the Southern Hemisphere (click on the image for the full-size version):

Climate Tricks 4: Don't Use Air Temp. Data, Don't Mention the Sun

To continue propagating climate alarmism, end-of-the-world-unless-you-follow-us doomsday scenario, alarmists use several tricks. Here are some of them.

One, not using air and tropospheric temperature data, and using only land surface temperature -- those that are gathered by thermometer stations in airports, weather forecasting agencies' offices, etc. Then cherry-pick those stations that report warming trend while ignore those stations that report flat lining or cooling trends.

Two, not factoring in natural factors that can affect the planet's climate and weather, like the Sun, galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), water vapor and clouds, volcanoes and geological degassing, other natural greenhouse gases (GHGs), the oceans and multi-decadal oscillations. It's all caused by more human CO2 emissions.

Three, trumpeting "ocean acidification", "rising sea level", "extreme storms/typhoons", etc. without showing enough graphs and data, and as if there were no super-strong storms and typhoons in the past.

Four, not taking the global data and satellite pictures of Arctic and Antarctica ice, just take photos of  broken icebergs and show these as "proof" of ever-melting polar ice towards "ice-free Arctic/Antarctica" in the next few years.

There are many other tricks, dozens of them, used by the alarmists to further advance their end goal: more UN and country governments' environmental regulations, carbon and energy taxation, more subsidies to crony power sources, more or expanded climate bureaucracies, more global climate meetings and junkets.

I am posting below four articles and data sets that debunk those four tricks by the alarmists. This is a bit long, so you may get your favorite snacks while reading :-)
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(1) Air and tropospheric temperature

From Dr. Roy Spencer, http://www.drroyspencer.com/

UAH Global Temperature Update for February 2012: -0.12 deg. C

March 2nd, 2012

The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly cooled a little more in February, 2012, again not unexpected for the current La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean (click on the image for the full-size version):

The 3rd order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.

Here are the monthly stats:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2011 1 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372
2011 2 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348
2011 3 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342
2011 4 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229
2011 5 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043
2011 6 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233
2011 7 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204
2011 8 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155
2011 9 +0.289 +0.304 +0.274 +0.178
2011 10 +0.116 +0.169 +0.062 -0.054
2011 11 +0.123 +0.075 +0.170 +0.024
2011 12 +0.126 +0.197 +0.055 +0.041
2012 01 -0.090 -0.057 -0.123 -0.138
2012 02 -0.116 -0.014 -0.217 -0.281

Climate Tricks 1: 4.5 Billion People to Die This Year

Starting this year, I am changing the thread title from "Climate Stupidity" to "Climate Tricks". Some friends suggested that the former sounds too brutal and combative. I agree, somehow, so I will mellow down, will use the latter. After all, AGW has become scary and threatening due to various tricks used by the proponents of that hypothesis, like the "hockey stick" graph of global temperature as tricked by Prof. Michael Mann of Penn State U. And that is why it's also called "Mann-made warming."

This headline from The Canadian made just four years ago is really scary. Some 4.5 billion of us in this planet could die this year because of global warming. Anthony Watts of WUWT made this blog entry two days ago:

Be careful today and tonight, billions may die

Posted on December 31, 2011 by Anthony Watts

UPDATE: January 1st, 2012 – still here, no reports of mass deaths at the last minute. – Anthony

Global warming may go on a last minute rampage. Maybe best to just stay at home and lock your doors, bar your windows, and turn your air conditioner on. If you live near the coast, head for high ground. Deaths due to drinking and  driving will be nothing compared to this.

This story appeared in The Canadian January 8th, 2007, it’s been a countdown example of stupidity ever since. Unbelievably, it is still on their website. Note today’s date....

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/12/31/be-careful-today-and-tonight-billions-may-die/#more-53941

Now, aren't you scared?

Also four years ago, Al Gore boldly predicted of an ice-free Arctic by 2014. Steven Goddard posted,

The 2007 Nobel Peace Prize
January 3, 2012

The Nobel Peace Prize winner in 2007 was of course sex poodle Al Gore and theHimalayas gone by 2035 IPCC. In his acceptance speech, Al Gore compared his brave work (lying to children for a fast buck) to that of fighting the Nazis. He predicted an ice-free Arctic by 2014.

We, the human species, are confronting a planetary emergency – a threat to the survival of our civilization that is gathering ominous and destructive potential even as we gather here. But there is hopeful news as well: we have the ability to solve this crisis and avoid the worst – though not all – of its consequences, if we act boldly, decisively and quickly.

However, despite a growing number of honorable exceptions, too many of the world’s leaders are still best described in the words Winston Churchill applied to those who ignored Adolf Hitler’s threat: “They go on in strange paradox, decided only to be undecided, resolved to be irresolute, adamant for drift, solid for fluidity, all powerful to be impotent.”

Last September 21, as the Northern Hemisphere tilted away from the sun, scientists reported with unprecedented distress that the North Polar ice cap is “falling off a cliff.” One ….  new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years.

Al Gore

Ok, here is the sea ice extent in the Arctic as of yesterday, January 2, 2012. Graph is from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Center for Ocean and Ice. The lowest level in 2011 was about 4.2 million sq. kms. of ice sometime in late September. The highest level was about 11.2 million sq. kms. of ice sometime in early March 2011.

The satellite picture as of two days ago, January 1, 2012, is from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Anything so scary and threatening about the Arctic ice? Hard data says No, while Al Gore and the UN -- IPCC, FCCC, WMO, UNEP, etc. -- say Yes.

Meanwhile, here's the end-December 2011 global air and tropospheric temperature anomaly, from Dr. Roy Spencer of UAH, http://www.drroyspencer.com/

UAH Global Temperature Update for Dec. 2011: +0.13 deg. C

January 3rd, 2012

The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for December, 2011 remained about the same November, +0.13 deg. C (click on the image for the full-size version):

The 3rd order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.

Here are the monthly stats for 2010 and 2011:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2010 1 +0.542 +0.675 +0.410 +0.635
2010 2 +0.510 +0.553 +0.466 +0.759
2010 3 +0.554 +0.665 +0.443 +0.721
2010 4 +0.400 +0.606 +0.193 +0.633
2010 5 +0.454 +0.642 +0.265 +0.706
2010 6 +0.385 +0.482 +0.287 +0.485
2010 7 +0.419 +0.558 +0.280 +0.370
2010 8 +0.441 +0.579 +0.304 +0.321
2010 9 +0.477 +0.410 +0.545 +0.237
2010 10 +0.306 +0.257 +0.356 +0.106
2010 11 +0.273 +0.372 +0.173 -0.117
2010 12 +0.181 +0.217 +0.145 -0.222
2011 1 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372
2011 2 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348
2011 3 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342
2011 4 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229
2011 5 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043
2011 6 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233
2011 7 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204
2011 8 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155
2011 9 +0.289 +0.304 +0.274 +0.178
2011 10 +0.116 +0.169 +0.062 -0.054
2011 11 +0.123 +0.075 +0.170 +0.024
2011 12 +0.127 +0.197 +0.057 +0.043

Finally, there will be a symposium on geology and climate (alarmism) on Friday in UP.

“Your Daily Dose of Earth Science” Symposium

January 5, 2012
Audio-Visual Room, National Institute of Geological Sciences (NIGS)
University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City

0905 Welcome Remarks
Dean Jose Maria Balmaceda, UP College of Science

0920 Keynote Address
Secretary Mario G. Montejo, Department of Science and Technology

1000 Climate Change after Durban
Dean Antonio G. M. La Viña (Dean, Ateneo School of Government)

1030 Renewable Energy Outlook
Dir. Mario C. Marasigan (Director IV, Renewable Energy Management Bureau, Department of Energy)

1100 Trends in Geosciences Education in the Philippines
Dr. Graciano P. Yumul Jr.
(Undersecretary for Research and Development, Department of Science & Technology)

1130 Promoting a Culture of Safety, Health, Environmental Protection and Social Development (SHES) in the Mining Industry
Engr. Louie R. Sarmiento (President, Philippine Mine Safety and Environment Association)

1330 Geology and the Management of Our Water Resources
Dr. Carlos Primo C. David (Professor, UP National Institute of Geological Sciences)

1400 Geology - Main Tool in Mineral Discoveries
Mr. Hernulfo B. Ruelo & Mr. Ciceron A. Angeles Jr. (Consultants)

1430 Can Nuclear Waste be Disposed of Safely?
Dr. Carlo A. Arcilla (Director, UP National Institute of Geological Sciences)

1530 Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study
Dr. Renato U. Solidum Jr. (Director, Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology)

1600 The National Geohazards Mapping & Assessment Program of the Mines & Geosciences Bureau-Department of Environment & Natural Resources
Dr. Karlo L. Queaño (Supervising Science Research Specialist, Mines & Geosciences Bureau)