Climate changes from warming to cooling to warming to
cooling, in endless natural and cyclical pattern. A period of global warming
for decades is followed by a period of global cooling, which also lasts for
decades. So global warming has precedents, it is not “unprecedented.”
There was global warming in the past when there was not
even a single car or coal power plant. This chart shows that modern warm period
that peaked in the last century was not exceptional or scary.
Energy policies in many countries have been heavily
distorted by governments to fight “man-made” or anthropogenic global warming
and climate change.
But how can governments, the United Nations and various
environmental groups fight something that naturally occurs, like day and night,
like wet-dry or winter-spring-summer-fall seasons, like El Niño-La Niña cycles?
This will be my main argument when I present my paper at
the Energy Policy Development Program (EPDP) Conference 2016, with the theme
“Toward Inclusive and Sustainable Energy Development” that would be held at New
World Hotel in Makati City, Jan. 12-13, 2016.
The recent extreme or severe flooding and drought that
people say as proof of “man-made” warming and climate change is not true. As
shown in the above figure, the Little Ice Age from 1200s to 1700s showed severe
cooling and flooding, brutal winter for decades and centuries.
In the Philippines, many instances of severe flooding
killed thousands of Filipinos many decades ago, which is similar to these
reports at the turn of the last 2 centuries.
Unfortunately, the Philippines still suffers from some
form of “energy poverty” compared to many of its neighbors in the region. Even
new comer and socialist Vietnam has electricity consumption per capita 2x that
of Philippines.
Moreover, the Philippines has the second highest
electricity prices in Asia, next to Japan. So succeeding policy measures should
be geared towards reducing the price and expanding power supply, and inventing
new schemes that will further raise the price should be the least priority of
the government.
To fight energy poverty and high electricity prices in
the Philippines, the following are proposed, among many others.
One, take advantage of low prices of fossil fuels like
oil, natural gas and coal, to expand power generation.
As noted in a previous paper in this column, “Paris COP:
Emission cut commitment vs energy needs” last Nov. 26, 2015, these countries
have more than 90% dependence on fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, oil) as of
2012: Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. Indonesia has 89% dependence.
Vietnam has only 50%+ dependence because 44% of its
electricity is from hydro. South Korea and Taiwan have high to modest use of
nuclear power.
Two, reduce government bureaucracies, both national and
local, in the energy sector. A base-load power plant would require nearly 200
permits and signatures to be constructed. This has become a disease in
government, that no one should move or start anything unless they get the
bureaucrats’ signatures.
Three, the Renewable Energy (RE) Act of 2008 (RA 9513)
should be drastically revised.
In particular, the provisions on feed in tariff (FIT)
which means guaranteed higher price, and renewable portfolio standards (RPS)
which means guaranteed minimum percentage of renewables, should be removed.
FIT’s introductory price that was passed on to the
consumers in the Philippines from February to December 2015 was only P0.04/kWh.
That was not sufficient because there have been many wind and solar plants that
came on stream, based on calculations by some players. So consumers must be
prepared to pay something like P0.13 to P0.20/kWh sometime this year.
Energy precedes development.
We cannot have strong and sustainable growth and job
creation if there is not enough electricity for the people and their
businesses, and if electricity prices remain high and continue to rise further.
Bienvenido Oplas, Jr. is the head of Minimal Government
Thinkers, and a Fellow of the South East Asia Network for Development (SEANET).
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See also:
BWorld 34, Solar power and supply instability, December 24, 2015
BWorld 35, Inter-island shipping and the PPA, Coast Guard, December 25, 2015
BWorld 37, World rule of law index and the Philippines, January 11, 2016
