Showing posts with label Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. Show all posts

Sunday, July 01, 2012

Fat-Free Econ 15: IMF and Freedom From Debt

* This is my article today in TV5's news portal,
http://www.interaksyon.com/article/36217/fat-free-economics-imf-and-freedom-from-debt
---------

To clamor for freedom from debt, one must clamor for freedom from borrowing first. Debt is nothing but the accumulation of past wastes, inefficiencies and profligacy. If the use of past debt was useful, then the debtor – a person, a corporation, or a government – should be able to pay off those debts later while sustaining its productive momentum. Or at least the debt stock should just be a small portion of its overall wealth. But if the use of past debt was unproductive, then the debtor will have an ever-rising pile of obligations.

Recently, the IMF has mobilized funds from emerging markets to pool some $456 billion to help debt-distressed European Union economies. The Philippine government through the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas contributed $1 billion to the IMF crisis fund. That fund will not directly come from tax money; rather, it will come from BSP’s international reserves, which are mainly foreign investments denominated in foreign currencies and are parked at the BSP. Still, the BSP move to contribute to the Eurozone bailout fund is wrong, and here are the reasons why:

One, those debt-ridden EU governments are not exactly resource poor. They have lots of state-owned corporations and financial institutions, as well as huge assets (military camps, parks, etc.) that can be privatized to raise domestic revenues to deal partially with their current spending requirements and debt obligations, instead of relying on endless taxation and borrowings.

Two, the bailout will create more moral hazard problems for those indebted countries. If they see that a bailout is forthcoming, why would they institute more austerity and subsidy reduction programs? Why privatize, which can hurt their chance at reelection? Instead, they made limited austerity measures, then issued some warnings that their debt problem can "spiral to the global economy” unless the world will send them more money.

If those European governments could not stabilize themselves when their public debt-to-GDP ratio was only at 60 percent or less, what makes us think that they can stabilize themselves at 110 percent or more? Spain, Italy and France for instance, have been in deficit spending for more than 30 years straight, three plus decades of living beyond their means. The PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) would need possibly one trillion dollars or more of bailout money, and there is no guarantee that such rescue money will be fully paid.

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Fiscal Irresponsibility 26: On the $1 B Philippine Loan to the IMF

Yesterday, I posted this in my facebook wall.
The $1B PH loan to the IMF for Eurozone reserve fund won't come from tax money but from BSP's international reserves. It is within BSP's mandate and resources to do so. Still, I don't support helping to bail out fiscally irresponsible governments with more loans when those governments have lots of state-owned enterprises, financial instns and assets that can be privatized to raise domestic revenues, instead of endless taxation and borrowings.
I was happy to see some serious exchanges and comments from some friends, below. I am posting these comments without asking the permission of these guys for two reasons. One, my fb wall is a public wall anyway, and  two, many of the points raised here are no-nonsense ideas and would greatly help educate the public on the merits and demerits of this recent move by the central bank/BSP.
--------

Malou Tiquia I just totally do not agree to it...

Butch Arroyo But if you were the BSP what else would you do with the $s? BSP evidently doesn't want to sell the $s to the local economy and make the PHP stronger. So it has to push out the $s. But everything else out there they could put it into is either risky (and wouldn't be allowed to count towards "international reserves"), or safe but very low-yielding. A loan to IMF might be the highest-yielding of the alternatives that are acceptable for designation as international reserves.

The European bailouts are painful and costly result of policy mistakes of the EU in not enforcing the fiscal and public debt requirements of the original Maastricht agreement. I agree that those governments (the borrower govts for sure, but also the Germans, who weakened fiscal discipline in the EU by themselves violating the fiscal pact) deserve the wrath of their constituents. But until they get voted out they are (unfortunately) still the democratically elected leaders of these countries. If the leaders of the center countries (FRA, GER) still favor a bail out of the problem governments rather than allowing an exodus from the monetary union, the IMF will probably have to go along, since the only other countries who could vote it down-- US, UK, and, Japan-- probably support preservation of the monetary union.
From PH perspective, as long as the bailout lenders retain seniority, $1B to IMF is probably a small portfolio risk for the BSP.

Nonoy Oplas Thanks Butch. If I were the BSP, I will use some of my $77 B gross international reserves (GIR) to buy and hoard more gold plus other precious metals. My beef is that by pooling rising amount of bail out money, it will create moral hazards problem for those indebted countries. They have many govt-owned corporations, financial institutions, national parks, military camps and other assets, things that can be privatized to raise local revenues to deal with their spending requirements and debt obligations. I have not encountered much literature that those governments are taking this measure. Rather, they made limited or bogus austerity then issue some warnings that their debt problem can "spiral to the global economy unless the world will send them more money."

By not participating in the creation of more moral hazards problem with that IMF bailout money, the PH government is sending a signal both to itself and the rest of the world, that it is time to really look inwards, there are several options and solutions that can be internally generated, aside from endless borrowings and issuing a blackmail of global fiscal crisis unless they are given more bailout money.

Jules Calagui It is high time that we create a Sovereign Wealth Fund. We can set aside $20 B to start one and still left with over 6 months of GIR to cover 7 months of imports.

Benson Te The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is a creation of the Philippine Congress REPUBLIC ACT No. 7653 and hence every exposure it does exposes Philippine taxpayers.

To give you an example, the liabilities of the old central bank (central bank ng Pilipinas, according to Malcolm Cook valued at over 300 billion were shifted to the newly created, off-budget Central Bank Board of Liquidators. In short, the liabilities of the old central bank was passed on the taxpayers.

FYI

Giovanni Rodriguez Agree with you Noy, the financial crisis in Europe and the world is the culmination of a failed experiment - fiat money !

Todd Foster So a country who still has many scratching out subsistence levels of living is loaning to a country, so it's residents can better afford their new "right" of do-overs on their vacations, if they got the sniffles on vacation #1? That's just plain evil.

Malou Tiquia Butch Arroyo, I really do not agree with your "small portfolio risk for BSP line. Point of the matter is we need the money here and not to support a failed system worldwide. Bail outs have proven to be not the right thing to do and really the Phils as lender is just a stunt to project the "breakout nations" status. Why not use the $ locally? BSP has to be creative, instead of FER what Jules Calagui posted is something worth considering. With SWF, it maximizes long term return, with foreign exchange reserves serving short term currency stabilization and liquidity management. There is a way to go than serve the ends of IMF. The world is in search of a new economic order and IMF has been part and parcel of failure of nations to handle responsibly fiscal and monetary policies. I fully share Nonoy Oplas' position here. Its time to go back to the drawing boards and bailouts are not the way to go! That's IMHO.

Casey Phyle The only thing that could possibly justify the Phils lending $1B to save Europe is the hope of not losing an important export market. But that is a vain hope, as lending to people who owe more than they can ever pay back is not the smartest thing to do. Borrowing more only makes their hole deeper. Some say it was intended like that by the money power who, on the way to NWO or One World, wants to force its will on the nations. So far that appears successful. The Philippines should not tie its raft too tightly to a sinking ship that will probably go down this year. On the other hand, the Philippines have been the recipient of western aid for long enough and have improved their situation at least this far. Now that they have a little cash on the side they probably thought it was only right to reciprocate and show some solidarity. Difficult to judge. That 1B would have stayed with the CB anyway and never gone to the people. Now the Phils will have a marker from IMF/Europe for $1B, with gold at $1600/oz.

Saturday, April 21, 2012

Inequality 11: Banks, Filipino Savings and the BSP

(Note: this is my article today in the online magazine,
http://www.thelobbyist.biz/perspectives/less-gorvernment/1300-banks-filipino-savings-and-the-bsp)

Majority of Filipinos, especially those in rural areas, would rather put their savings in kind than in cash. They invest in farm animals, tricycles, tractors, house and lot, but not in formal financial institutions like bank savings, life insurance and the stockmarket. Certain banking regulations and bureaucracies have something to do with it.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)’s first Consumer Finance Survey (CFS) was released yesterday, Filipino households ‘unbanked’ -- BSP. Among the findings were:

1. Only two out of ten families maintain deposit accounts;
2. In Metro Manila, less than 1 percent had investments in stocks, mutual funds, fixed income securities. Outside the region, the percentage is negligible.
3. Only four percent of households have credit cards.

In the same news report, BSP Deputy Governor Nestor Espenilla Jr. made this proposal,

“Bottom line, people should be saving if they can. And saving in banks is a better option for an individual than keeping money under the mattress,” he said.
“Money saved in banks also help the economy when these are recycled through loans to productive activities.”

I think Mr. Espenilla and other central bank officials do not understand the savings and investment preferences of many Filipinos. Here are some factors why I say so, and why many Filipinos are not enthusiastic in putting their savings in the banks.

One, the “five-six” (one borrows P5 and pay P6 at the end of the month, or an interest rate of 20 percent per month, really high) and other informal lenders are more adventurous, more borrower-friendly than banks. The poor stall owners (tinderos and tinderas) in public markets would borrow at high interest rate with these informal lenders as these” guys go to the tinderos in their tindahan and stalls, the banks do not. The banks want the tinderas to leave their stalls and go to them.

Two, the informal lenders do not rely much on paper work, no credit application form to submit, no collaterals required, they rely more on word-of-mouth information about the new borrowers, while the banks require all forms of paper work + pictures + IDs issued by the government+ collateral papers + a co-borrower name and signatures + other requirements.

Three, the informal lenders are anywhere, even in far-flung barangays and sitios, they may even be neighbors of the borrowers in the barrios, while banks are located in the city or municipal center.

And four, the “five-six” guys bear the risk of being held up by gangs and street criminals while doing the rounds as they collect daily, not monthly, endure the heat and rain, dust and pollution, while the bankers are in air-conditioned rooms, protected against dust/pollution/heat.

In short, the informal lenders endure high risks, high administrative costs for high returns, while the banks want low risk, low administrative costs but high returns.

The poor’s savings and investments are usually not in cash or in piggy bank, but in kind: cows, pigs, goats or other farm animals, a tricycle, a tractor, a rice thresher. There is probably higher liquidity here compared to bank deposits. If an emergency arises in the family, they can sell those farm animals any day as meat buyers are looking around seven days a week. Banks are close two days a week so if an emergency arises on a weekend or a holiday, people cannot get their money.

Interest income from bank savings is also very low, usually two to four percent per year, then the government will remove 20 percent of whatever small interest revenue as a withholding tax.

The BSP or the central planners of monetary policy, money printing and bank regulations, they are busy issuing regulations left and right to the banks, penalizing and even closing those who cannot deal with the regulations like minimum capitalization.

One thing going against the BSP as a political institution, is that it can be headed by political appointees with little or zero background in banking, usually former Cabinet Secretaries of the outgoing administration. For instance, among the Monetary Board members are former Secretaries Toting Bunye and Peter Favila of the previous Gloria Arroyo administration.

From now up to early 2016, many key supporters of the current PNoy Aquino administration, especially Cabinet Secretaries ending their term by mid-2016, will be lining up to become "board members" of the BSP even if they have little or zero background in banking and monetary policy. Huge pay, giant perks, zero risk of bankruptcy, what else can one ask for.

So with these risk averse but highly paid monetary bureaucrats issuing new regulations to banks and other financial institutions, one can see a disconnect in their worldview with the players on the ground. It is good that the five-six guys and other informal lenders are outside the powers of the BSP. Otherwise, those motorcycle-riding lenders will be riding ADB-funded e-trikes,
--------

See also:
Inequality 1: Rich Getting Richer is Good, August 29, 2009
Inequality 2: To Each According to his Needs... September 01, 2010
Inequality 3: Freedom, Free Market and Inequality, February 14, 2011
Inequality 4: Why Inequality is Good, May 10, 2011
Inequality 8: On Sustainable Inclusive Growth, June 23, 2011
Inequality 9: CMFR Forum on Inclusive Growth, September 22, 2011
Inequality 10: On Urban Congestion, January 05, 2011