Wednesday, February 24, 2021

UPSEAA Lecture 9, Andrew Masigan on PH and VN

A good lecture this afternoon by my friend and fellow BusinessWorld columnist, Andrew Masigan.

Andrew and I would occasionally exchange notes on some economic issues. We would be guests together in some programs of One News Cignal TV in 2019, we had a drink last year.

Andrew gave a half hour, 29 slides presentation at nearly 70 people, many high caliber business leaders and consultants in the audience including some non-UPSE alumni invited by UPSEAA President Jeffrey Ng. Below are some of the important data that Andrew shared, I screen shot them into one table.

The above numbers show:

1. FDI intake, VN 2x of PH.
2. Merchandise X, VN nearly 4x of PH.
3. Services X, PH more than 2x of VN.
4. GDP size, I think VN will overtake PH around 2023
(per capita GDP, VN already overtook PH in 2020).
5. Industrial estates, PH still under endless rural land redistribution (AR) terrorism, VN has none.
6. Raw materials supply, implying VN domestic inv more dynamic than PH in developing such raw materials.
7. Cost to export, border compliance, PH 1.5x than VN.
8. Cost to export, documentary compliance, VN nearly 3x of PH.
9. Household electricity cost, PH nearly 2x of VN.
10. Industrial electricity cost, PH 1.5x of VN.
11. CIT, PH to catch up VN's 20% by 2027.
12. VAT, PH > VN and all others in E Asia.

On #4, IMF projections as of October 2020, PH projected GDP contraction in 2020 was -8.3%, actual is -9.5%. VN projected GDP growth was 1.6%, actual is 2.8%. Even at 1.6% VN growth and -8.3% PH contraction, VN already overtook the PH in 2020 in per capita income, $3,498 vs $3,373.
At actual 2.8% VN growth and -9.5% PH contraction, VN per capita income last yr would be around $3,600 vs PH's $3,300. 

One reason why #9 and #10 happened, VN has more realistic energy policies like not too gung-ho with intermittent, unstable and expensive solar-wind. See table below, from my column yesterday.

From the QnA and Comments at the chat box, it was a great lecture, lots of praises from the audience. Kudos, my friend, great lecture. And good decision, President Jeff, to get him as resource speaker.

See also:
UPSEAA lecture 5, Iggy Sison and Del Monte pineapple farming, March 01, 2020 
UPSEAA Lecture 6, Ferdie Constantino and SMC infra, August 28, 2020 
UPSEAA Lecture 7, Dr. Butch Arroyo, October 17, 2020 
Dr. Iggy Agbayani's UPSEAA lecture 8 , November 04, 2020.

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