Climate stupidity 16: Rising CO2 and cooling world

The planet is plunging in a cooling period, yet many groups and governments, including the UN and other multilaterals call for more environmental and energy regulations to "save the planet from man-made warming and climate change."

Joe Bastardi, a known meteorologist, produced a good paper recently posted in NoTricksZone, Joe Bastardi Calls Manmade CO2 Global Warming “An Obvious Fraud”. Joe showed the correlation between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and global temperatures. Then he showed these 2 graphs.

Over the past century, global temperature deviation or anomaly has an up-down-up-down cycle while CO2 concentration remains rising. Little or no correlation between CO2 and global temperature.

Even more damning is the past 15 years' temperature, flat to declining, while CO2 keeps on its upward trend. To continue blaming CO2 as the cause of global warming is simply not true. Now that global temperatures are slowly declining, they also blame CO2 for causing "man-made climate change".

Two weeks ago, I gave a talk in my club, the Rotary Club of Taguig Fort Bonifacio. My paper was entitled Warming Racket and Climate Reality, And Why Rotarians Should not Believe the AGW Fiction. I urge readers to check that powerpoint presentation, 43 slides. I showed there many graphs, charts and satellite pictures, from air/tropospheric temperature to land surface to sea surface temperatures, the sea ice extent in both Arctic and Antarctica, and so on.

These were my concluding points. I just reiterated what I have been saying in the past.

Ok, for leaders and supporters of the big climate alarmist groups -- Greenpeace, World Wildlife Fund, Oxfam -- my challenge to you and other alarmist groups to a public debate on climate, remains open. I have been saying to a number of people that I have talked to, that ALL warming leaders in this country are cowards when challenge to a public debate on climate. I hope you can disprove me on this.

Group picture after my talk. Standing, 3rd and 4th from left, are club Past President Niel Antonio and current Club President Norlan de Leon. Beside me is my wife Ella. Beside her is Me-Ann, Norlan's wife.

On the week that I gave that talk, global cooling hit many continents and countries around the world. In South America, here is one news report, South America Gripped By Brutal Winter, July 26, 2011

In southern Peru, temperatures in the higher elevations of the Andes fell to -23°C. Since the beginning of last week 112 people have died of hypothermia and flu.

In Argentina the lowest temperatures in 10 years were measured – the temperature dropped to -14°C. At least 33 people died, some froze to death and some from poisonous gases emitted from faulty heaters.

In the tropical regions of Bolivia where temperatures rarely fall below 20°C (68°F), the temperature hovered near 0°C. At least four people died because of the cold. Two homeless persons died in Uruguay. Thousands of cattle froze in the fields in Paraguay and Brazil....

In Africa, here is one news report, Marooned in the snow, S. Africa, July 26, 2011

SHAIN GERMANER and Botho Molosankwe

In buses, trucks, cars and homes thousands of people have been stuck in small towns or on roadsides today as heavy snowfall caused a number of major routes across the country to be closed.

And three truck drivers were marooned for hours in their overturned vehicles this morning as emergency workers attempted to plough through kilometres of snow to rescue them....

In Europe, Germany’s 2011 Summer Will Be On August 2 From 1:30 PM Until 3:30 PM, July 29, 2011.

Germany over the last weeks has been gripped by unusually cool and wet weather, and so many are wondering whatever happened to summer. The forecast for the days ahead according to the English-language The Local doesn’t look good either as rain and cool with temperatures stuck in the 60s remaining the rule....

In Asia, here is one report in South Korea, where 39 people died from heavy flooding, Heavy flooding in S. Korea, NYT, July 27, 2011.

Also that week, a separate typhoon named "Juaning", the local name of a tropical storm that already has an international name, has killed around 52 people in the Philippines, mostly from drowning or landslides.

Finally, this video is cool and quite comprehensive, 16 minutes long.

The warming racket is crumbling fast as mother Earth insists that it has no fever, that it is in fact shivering at times as it enters the global cooling period.
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See also,
Part 14, AGW fiction and cooling reality, July 3, 2011
Part 15, Fight among alarmists over climate money, July 12, 2011

Fiscal irresponsibility 15: Philippine government budget 2012

The House of Representatives of the Philippines is now on its second week of budget hearing for the 2012 budget. The public is assured of another round of fiscally irresponsible spending, of expenditures larger than revenues, then government borrows like crazy to finance the budget deficit -- this year, next year and more years to come.

My sister's auditing firm, Alas, Oplas and Co. CPAs, has a good economics and finance blog. I shall use the tables there but I will have a different interpretation of those numbers. The primary source of data is the Department of Budget and Management's Budget of Expenditures and Sources of Financing 2012.

Here are the various macro economic assumptions when the DBM, DOF, NEDA, Bangko Sentral (BSP) and other agencies prepared the budget. Note the wide range of the Peso/$ exchange rate for 2011 and 2012, from P42 to P45 to a $. They are anticipating wide swings in the exchange rate this year and the next.

Note also the wide range in the LIBOR, from 0.5 to 1.5 percent. When they prepared the budget until late last month, the deep uncertainty in the US debt ceiling debate was still on, and the rating downgrade of US debt from AAA to AA with negative outlook, was not yet factored in. These developments plus the continuing debt crisis in a number of European economies will have upward impact on global interest rates.

Fiscal irresponsibility of the Philippine government continues. From one administration to the next, including the current one. The rise in the budget remains higher than revenues, resulting in seemingly endless budget deficit each year.

The national government's budget was P1.47 T in 2010, P1.64 T this year, and P1.82 T in 2012. The projected budget/GDP ratio should be around 16.5 percent, excluding budget by local government units (LGUs). If their combined budgets are included, this ratio may go up to around 20 percent of GDP.

A high interest payment as a result of high public debt remains one of the biggest items in the budget, along with salaries of several million government personnel. P294.2 B last year, P357.1 B this year, and P333.1 B next year, or an average of P328 B per year in 2010-2012.

There is something suspicious in the flat or even decline in the budget of other departments and agencies outside the main Executive branch. If the total budget has increased but certain agencies suffered some spending cuts or stayed at similar level, and interest payment will have a slight decline next year, where will the money go?

There is a "magic" appearance of huge items like the “Personnel benefit funds” and “Retirement benefit funds” in the 2011 and 2012 budgets; they were zero in the 2010 budget. So a huge amount for personnel salaries, bonuses and retirement was somehow detached from regular agency budgets. Possibly to make some of them look kawawa or pitiful and hence, must not suffer budget cuts in Congress. This should be another proof that the bulk of the budget is for paying the salaries, perks and benefits of more than four million government personnel, from local to national agencies.

Here is the total debt service spending, interest payment + principal amortization, from 2010 to 2012. Note the difference in figure in interest payment this year. It should be P357 B this year, but listed only as P321.6 B in this table. I do not know the explanation for this. Perhaps a typographical error on the part of DBM, or some realignment of items.

Nonetheless, the figures show that the ratio between interest payment and principal amortization looks like 3:4 or 4:5, which is a big number for interest payment. If government borrows more each year partly to pay maturing old debts, and paying huge amount in interest, why continue with this practice? Why continue the fiscal irresponsibility? Because the politicians and government bureaucrats themselves are irresponsible?

Finally, this table is a bit disturbing. The national government debt stock is rising by around P400 B each year: P4.21 T by end-2009, P4.64 T by end-2010, P5.05 T by the end of this year, and P5.52 T by the end of 2012.

The government's quick and shallow explanation for this would be that while the absolute amount may be big and getting bigger, but compared to GDP that is also getting bigger each year, the relative share of debt/GDP will stabilize, if not slightly declining.

I say that this is a shallow explanation because a rise in GDP, which is mainly a result of the toil and hard work of people in the economy, mostly from workers and entrepreneurs in the private sector, should not be used as justification for the government to continue its irresponsibility and stupidity in further hiking public indebtedness. Each peso, each dollar of government debt, will have to be paid by the current and future taxpayers. Many of the politicians and bureaucrats who contracted those new loans will be long retired or dead when those debts would mature and will require ever higher interest payment.

BIG governments, whether socialist or democratic/republican/nationalist/populist capitalist, are dangerous. Their main goal is to expand the state and its various coercion. A collateral damage of such continued state expansion and coercion, is the decline in individual freedom. Soon, people will pay more taxes to pay for the wastes and robbery of the past governments, and spend little for the private education, healthcare, housing, clothing, travel, etc. of their kids and family.

Responsible parenthood cannot be legislated, Part 5

These are my twitter notes on the Reproductive Health (RH) and Responsible Parenthood (RP) bill between July 20 to 29, 2011. My debate actually with some of the guys mentioned here.

@cesdrilon @risahontiveros Rename RH bill into "RH Liberalization Act of 2011." No? Not liberalization? Then call it "RH Minimization Act".

@pinoygossipboy @PawieSharpei Social & pol. planning, econ & ecological planning, rural & urban planning, soon fam planning by d state, wow.

@indayevarona @ruffybiazon Educ, healthcare, housing, AR, credit , irrig. for the poor, now CCT for the poor, soon condoms for the poor.

@seclaudio @newsbreak_ph RH bill says govt responsib bigger than parental responsib, bit.ly/q2RTYF. State cant substit parental respon

@I_amHolo @risahontiveros I counted 12 sections of RH bill that explicitly say spend-spend-spend and imply tax-tax-tax, bit.ly/kcYcfN

@risahontiveros @newsbreak_ph @seclaudio No Risa, RH bill says tax-tax-tax bec govt will spend-spend-spend for population control policies

@newsbreak_ph @seclaudio See 2 charts fr The Economist mag,bit.ly/rmY4ff. Parental decision will prevail over govt fam. planning

@jonasbagas China spent big time on popn control, see bad result, projectns from UN, bit.ly/rmY4ff. Wholl take care of oldies, robots?

@risahontiveros @newsbreak_ph @RepLuzIlagan Taxpayers shd fund free educ, healthcare, housng, AR, credit, CCT, condoms, pills for d poor wow

@risahontiveros @newsbreak_ph @RepLuzIlagan Too many planners. They want more money fr our pockets so they can plan d family of other people

@newsbreak_ph Thnx. Here, bit.ly/rmY4ff China spent big time on popn control, bad result. Who'll take care of oldies, robots, commies?

@meGEMSON @newsbreak_ph "tama na pagiging makasarili" -- sige, kunin nyo lahat pera namin, panggastos sa popn control policies nyo. hooray!

@pmella @risahontiveros @newsbreak_ph @RepLuzIlagan Yes, free cars, yachts for d poor, provided they shd take free condoms, pills & ligation

@Jimparedes When d poor work hard to feed their fam, govt shd not impose too many bureaucracies, taxes, fees, fines & penalties vs d poor.

@newsbreak_ph Govt imposes many taxes & bureaucracies for d industrious. When people become poor, more taxes to control population of d poor

@seclaudio CBCP lobbied for religious educ in pub sch? Equally horrible. I criticize RH bill w/ zero reference to CBCP. My pts purely econ.

@seclaudio Had a looong debate in fb re RH bill w/ econ arguments,bit.ly/pnsxbS. ProRH have zero ans on costs of the bill. U have it?

@senmiriam If you can provide numbers re cost of RH bill, great. Most if not all pro-RH have zero ans to it, see bit.ly/pnsxbS, thanks

@seclaudio At P300 B per yr ave budget deficit, where do u stop proposing new spending when old spending proven ineffective & corrupted?

@seclaudio "spending massively for social services as prelude to econ take-off" Really, even if money wasted or stolen? moral hazards prob?

@seclaudio "This money can be raised several ways" Govt can easily find money? Then why borrow P300B/yr on ave? Pub debt near P5 trillion.

@seclaudio "deficit per se not bad" Why is govt sounding off new taxes soon to finance deficit? Endless borrowing to finance def is wrong.

@seclaudio Educ, health, housing, agri, pub works, MRT/jeep fuel subsidy for d poor, now CCT for d poor, soon condoms & ligation for d poor.

@seclaudio If we encourage more personal & household responsibility in running people's lives, then most "govt responsib" unnecessary.

@tweetnirizal @sagadasun Responsible parenthood cannot be legislated, bit.ly/pnsxbS. Been asking d cost of #RHBILL, got zero reply.

@SagadaSun @tweetnirizal Pathetic to consider d poor as baggage to be fed, clothed, shelterd. People are workers, entrepreneurs, taxpayers.

@SagadaSun @tweetnirizal More dangerous is fiscal irresponsib. US govt debt crisis now. RP govt deficit P300B/yr on ave. More debt for RH?

@SagadaSun @richard_cairo @tweetnirizal My critique of #RHBILLis mainly econ, zero religious reason,, see 2 charts, bit.ly/rmY4ff.

@SagadaSun @tweetnirizal Sex Ed, gender equality, etc shd be electives, not mandatory. Studnts good at sex subjectss but idiot in sci & math

@SagadaSun Good to hear you're miniarchist too, cheers. Reduce d role of d state, reduce central planning, incl planning d households.

@SagadaSun #RHBILL is central planning in popn. How many condoms & pills to buy, how many midwives to hire, how many maternity hosp to build

@SagadaSun Optimum popn size to be dictated by d state? If a household will exceed that "optimum" size, d state will penalize it?

@SagadaSun "no GOVT MONOPOLY on Sex Ed or RH", good. Keep that way, don' create new monopoly, new central planning, new taxes to financ them

@SagadaSun D state will determine what's "microecon efficiency at the family level"? Thats central, top to bottom planning.

@SagadaSun When d poor want to work hard to feed fam., state shd not impose endless bureaucracies, taxes, fees & fines that penalize d poor

@SagadaSun "you shouldn't make more babies than you can reasonably feed. govt can impose this" Thats central planning. Impose & control.

@SagadaSun How d state penalize d poor who want to stand on their own and not rely on state & politicians patronage, bit.ly/nYzIaJ

@SagadaSun I have a feeling #RHBILL to become a law. UN, WB, ADB, USAID, Congress, etc. money poured on that bill. Its a BIG govt project

@SagadaSun The State declares: whether u support #RHBILL or not, you pay lots of taxes for its implementation. That's "free choice"?

@SagadaSun "argument that big pharma interests are behind the RHBILL" where did this come from? I mentioned zero about Pharma.

@SagadaSun Central planning: State centralizes buying pills, injectibles, maternity lab eqpt, hiring new midwives, new sex ed teachers, etc

@SagadaSun "Isn't it Catholic Church that is guilty of "central planning"" I have zero sympathy for Cath church position on RH.

@SagadaSun "congruence bet "central planning" argument against RHBILL & Catholic Church practice!" I have zero sympathy for Church argument

@SagadaSun "Govt will sell condoms, pills and IUDS" Nope. Govt does not sell those, it gives out free, by confiscating our mo

@SagadaSun "Private Hospitals be banned from buying lab eqpt?" They can, they'll charge patients, they wont get fr our pockets by force, tax

@SagadaSun "same choice bet private & public sch for our children" No. Even if u send kids to priv sch, u still pay for pub sch, u pay twice

@SagadaSun I say for d 3rd time. I have zero, even neg. sympathy for church position on RH, why keep mentioning it in your debate w/ me?

@SagadaSun "Why arent 100% of patients in free govt hosp?" Bec people see wastes & bad serv in govt hosp, they pay extra to go to priv hosp.

@SagadaSun Then show why #RHBILL isnt central planning, zero need to mention church. I argue RH is central planning proj in popn by BIG govt

SagadaSun "govt doing Central Planning of Hosp" Yes, some central planning in health. Those who over-drink, over-smoke, we pay in govt hosp

@SagadaSun Central planning is social engg. Those who over-drink, over-eat, over-fight, dont take care of their body, will be treated.
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In my debate with the pro-RH groups, there are three things that I notice.

1. You ask them how much the bill will cost, initial year and succeeding years, you will get two types of reply. One is silence, no answer; and two is a rhetorical answer like "No one was asking how much it would cost when provisions for free elementary and high school education were included in it. How much are teen pregnancies, abortions and deaths of pregnant women costing us?" See Part 4, July 21, 2011.

2. You keep asking more questions, they answer how arrogant or insensitive the Catholic Church is. Even if you argue that your stand on the bill has zero reference, zero sympathy, for the Church position, they still think you are a mindless supporter of the church dogma.

3. And if you question this bill as another central planning project by the state, they will not dispel such argument, and lash back again at the church as a model of central planning. Maybe if they hate Bill Gates or Henry Sy or the Ayalas, they will also mention these guys as "model of central planning." They have difficulty focusing on the issue at hand and resort to diversionary arguments.

See also Part 3, May 22, 2011,

Fiscal irresponsibility 14: Debt crisis and government failure

(This is my article yesterday in the lobbyist.biz with original title, Debt Crisis and Government Failure)

A debt crisis is a situation where a debtor – a person, corporation, government, or other entities – is in a situation where it may not be able to pay its obligations to its creditor/s despite earlier promises or contract of paying on time, or on a renegotiated payment period.

Government failure is inability of government to provide or supply what it has vowed to the citizens. The more functions or welfare that government promises to the people, the bigger the danger of government failure. Among the most important functions of government is the promulgation of the rule of law.

When government borrows like crazy with a promise to its creditors that it will pay on time, then says that it may not be able to fulfill such obligation, that it may default some of its debt payment, then government is saying that it may throw out the rule of law on its debt contract.

The debt crisis of the US federal government was solved temporarily last August 2 when the US Congress enacted another law raising for the nth time the government’s debt limit. Thus, the debt uncertainty was “solved” temprarily by having more debt. Thus, the debt crisis of 2011 was only postponed into the future, maybe until next year, or next 2-3 years.

Now the US government got a big slap with a credit downgrade. For the first time, its AAA rating by S&P was downgraded to AA+ with a negative outlook, meaning another downgrade in the coming months and years is highly possible.

Low credit rating means lower possibility of that debtor that it can fulfill its debt contract on time and at the stipulated terms. Thus, higher risk for its creditors. So creditors will demand higher interest rate to reflect the possible danger in the future of the debt contract to be reneged or renegotiated.

I doubt that the US government, and many European governments for that matter, will realize their self-inflicted government failure, then blame market failure somehow for the mess. But the lesson is actually very clear and simple: If you live beyond your means, if you spend much higher than your income or revenue, then resort to endless borrowing to finance the funding gap, the natural resort is 100% predictable: ever higher debt.

A modest person or government would recognize the folly of such unsustainable lifestyle, and would solve such debt by cutting spending and/or raising income, not by more borrowing. A lower credit rating in fact should be a good opportunity, a good rationale, for the heavily indebted person or government, to cut its less important spending as there is higher penalty for more borrowing.

The US government has trillions of $ of assets and properties to sell if they really wish to solve that endless debt problem. Privatization of some of those assets is a good solution as the government can continue many of its projects and welfare programs, pay many of its debts and soon reduce the interest payment burden, without resorting to more taxation of the citizens.

But for many governments, rich and poor alike, more borrowing, even more taxation, is the usual solution. Today’s politicians who get today’s borrowings will not be around when those debts will fall due in the future. This is one moral hazards problem in government that largely explains why the debt problem tends to worsen rather than mitigate.

In short, hypocrisy is much larger than sincerity.
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See also:
Part 11, US debt default talks, July 18, 2011
Part 12, More on US debt default, July 28, 2011

Twitter Notes, July 2011 (d)

Below are my twitter notes from July 15-25, 2011. My tweets related to the Reproductive Health (RH) bill on that period are not included here, I will make a separate discussion paper about them.
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@philoquotes "Fury itself supplies arms ~ Virgil" True. Anger may not need arms. Brute force and irrational mind are enough to cause damage

philo_quotes Philosophers quotes by Noysky
Peace is not an absence of war,it is a virtue,a state of mind,a disposition for benevolence,confidence,justice ~ Spinozahttp://bit.ly/philq

TehminaZaman Tehmina Zaman by Noysky
If you don't like something change it; if you can't change it, change the way you think about it. ~Mary Engelbreit

@philoquotes "Silence is a true friend who never betrays ~ Confucius" True. In many cases, silence is golden, and motor mouth is hell.

AncientProverbs Motivational Quotes by Noysky
I ask not for a lighter burden, but for broader shoulders. -Jewish proverb

@GreatestQuotes "What keeps me going is goals - Mahummad Ali". Cool. Forward looking always. Look behind, sides, watch danger, move forward.

@philo_quotes "Each of us bears his own Hell ~ Virgil" True. But each of us can also decide when to shrink or dispose such hell.

"The greatest wealth is to live content with little. ~ Plato". True. Live within our means. Almost all govts live byond their means, hi debt

Zen_Moments Zen Moments by Noysky
The rigid and inflexible will surely fail, while the soft and flowing will prevail. ~ Lao Tzu http://dld.bz/uAv5

@dost_pagasa Since you didnt reply to my question why temp data not available in ur website, I wrote an article about u, bit.ly/o7MwZD

@ruffybiazon Shd govts keep a zoo? Why not leave that to priv firms? Those firms pay taxes anyway, some taxes to feed very poor, not animals

Montberte Steve Cushing by Noysky
capital punishment - 1 income tax 2 what your congressman does to you after he's elected

Zen_Moments Zen Moments by Noysky
Holding on to anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned. ~ Buddha

Montberte Steve Cushing by Noysky
cold war - the nightly battle between man and wife to secure and hold all the blankets

The US govt should NOT even entertain debt default as an option. It should shrink its size & spending instead, bit.ly/rufjKl

philo_quotes Philosophers quotes by Noysky
He is a wise man who does not grieve for the things which he has not, but rejoices for those which he has. ~ Epictetus http://bit.ly/philq

@Montberte Include also d Pres. or PM, Senators, Governors, Mayors, non-elected bureaucrats. The raise taxes, mandatory fees, spending.

Most NGOs and acad research instns are corrupted by foreign aid money. They don't question big & intrusive govt, only "bad" governance.

@ruffybiazon Bigger challenge to both mil & civilian estab, is to respect d rule of law, not rule of men. Both are violators of rule of law

@maria_ressa the bigger d mil. & spying activities, the more attractive to hackers. Pentagon will learn to hire less soldiers, more IT spies

Zen_Moments Zen Moments by Noysky
Though a man go out to battle a thousand times against a thousand men, if he conquers himself he is the greater conqueror. ~ Dhammapada

GreatestQuotes Great Minds Quotes by Noysky
"The bad news is time flies. The good news is you're the pilot." - Michael Althsuler

Montberte Steve Cushing by Noysky
Even a fish can escape being caught, if it keeps it's mouth shut. #stevec

philo_quotes Philosophers quotes by Noysky
We do not know what we want and yet we are responsible for what we are - that is the fact. ~ Sartre http://bit.ly/philq

Quotes4Writers Quotes4Writers by Noysky
"Listening to both sides of a story will convince you that there is more to a story than both sides." Frank Tyger

Jimparedes Jim by Noysky
It's a beautiful day.. Why? because I said so. It's great to know you have power and to use it as it should be used.

@ruffybiazon @indayevarona If politicians can politicize educ, commod pricing, fare- and wage-setting, impossible not to politicize soldiers

philo_quotes Philosophers quotes by Noysky
If you are lonely when you're alone, you are in bad company. ~ Sartre http://bit.ly/philq

@ruffybiazon @mitosmagsaysay Military as a pol. instn. is politicized since its creation. Heavier politics since Martial Law in '72.


@TgGuingona "5% of STL proceeds goes to PNP" that may just be "legal" proceeds. If there are llegal proceeds (extortion), could be higher

@TgGuingona "May kakayahan ba COA o PNP na malaman (saan napunta pera)? COA, PNP: We do not know." So many screts, non-transparency in govt

@indayevarona Congress and PNP now "poor" instns that must receive charity fund from PCSO? So many hypocrisies in govt.

@TgGuingona PNP getting monday from annual appro, from PCSO, where else, PAGCOR, LGUs,..? is PNP a poor body that needs charity fund?

WhoIsMikeGordon Mike Gordon by Noysky
If you wish to grow thinner, diminish your dinner. H S Leigh

wansaiful Wan Saiful Wan Jan by Noysky
RT @IDEASMalaysia: We are the 18th best new think tank in the world. Come join us and help make a difference http://bit.ly/iz9O6R

GreatestQuotes Great Minds Quotes by Noysky
"When the grass looks greener on the other side of the fence, it may be that they take better care of it there." - Cecil Selig

philo_quotes Philosophers quotes by Noysky
Princes and governments are far more dangerous than other elements within society. ~ Machiavelli http://bit.ly/philq

@indayevarona Privatize PCSO. Wrong for govt to fool the public they can get rich in sweepstakes & gambling, & get more money from the poor.

@maria_ressa "From bin Laden to Facebook" Terrorism is too private, fb is too public. There is a big "jump" bet the two.

Quotes4Writers Quotes4Writers by Noysky
"When I quote others I do so in order to express my own ideas more clearly." Michel de Montaigne

IPNLondon IPN by Noysky
@ipnlondon competition rules amended - Writers can enter both #Bastiat and #Hoiles Prizes bit.ly/oNLIwl #journalist #tcot #tlot

Zen_Moments Zen Moments by Noysky
There's no reason to be the richest man in the cemetery. You can't do any business from there. ~ Colonel Sanders

@gpph Greenpeace & other warming racket groups refuse to see warming-cooling-warming-cooling cycles in the ocean,wattsupwiththat.com/reference-page…

Quotes4Writers Quotes4Writers by Noysky
My life has no purpose, no direction, no aim, no meaning, and yet I'm happy. I can't figure it out. What am I doing right? —Charles M Schulz

@marykissel Carbon cap & tax in Australia is good reminder that socialism has good entry point at environmentalism. Gillard will pay dearly

@GoYoLarrazabal Plenty of clouds, cool or even rains. Cloudless, hot. Weather or climate is mostly determined by the vol of clouds in d sky

bibekdebroy Bibek Debroy by Noysky
Pondering a question. Why are Ministers who become friends more approachable than friends who become Ministers?

acopatunru Aco Patunru by Noysky
One of the important propositions in trade is Rybczynski Theorem. Hard to spell, yes. But no one changed it for convenience's sake.

@acopatunru And the Heckscher-Ohlin theorem in trade, also hard to spell. Or did I misspell it too? :-)

@philo_quotes "All wealth is the product of labor ~ John Locke" True. Capital is accumulated surplus of labor w/c improves labor productiv

Oprah_World Oprah Quotes by Noysky
I don't believe in failure. It is not failure if you enjoyed the process. -Oprah

@mitosmagsaysay "Traffic is so bad", MMDA busy catching smokers, coding cars, removing sexy billboards, instead of buildg more interchanges.

@vamush @mitosmagsaysay If people expect free educ, healthcare, housing for all, they're asking for socialism. Govt will get all from us too

@charievilla @AJEnglish Debt crisis by Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, US, UK, etc. Fiscal irresponsib will only lead to debt crisis soon.

@teddycasino @gmanews NEPA not an "economists group", Its a protectionist lobby & non-Econ academcs. PNoy is fr liberal, not socialist party

marykissel Mary Kissel by Noysky
Your taxpayer $ at work: U.N. considers creating climate-change peacekeeping force http://bit.ly/qnxlH9 | Guardian

Karen_DaviLa Karen Davila by Noysky
Over 300 govt agencies & LGUS have not remitted GSIS contributions of their employees. Caloocan Mayor Recom Echeverri not only one.

@Karen_DaviLa Ampatuan overnight at Heart Center, another instance of the rule of men, not rule of law. Courts r disobeyed in simple orders.

@marykissel US, EU, etc that finance big d UN, in deep public debt problems. And d UN wants more tax money for fictitious war on clim change

@Karen_DaviLa Go Harry. Give Ampatuans and lawyers more hell. Disobeying court order of "out-patient only" already ground for Court penalty.

@philoquotes "Freedom is what you do with what's been done to you ~ Sartre" Wrong. That is rule of men and vengeance, not rule of law.

NathanielMccabe Nathaniel Mccabe by Noysky
Courage is what it takes to stand up and speak; courage is also what it takes to sit down and listen. - Winston Churchill

@Jimparedes Politics & govt is the art of coercion & often, deception. So, many want socialism & authoritarianism, they can coerce anytime

@raissawriter But Bunye was rewarded with high paying Monetary Board member for shutting his mouth on Gloria-Garci scandal.

@philo_quotes "The greater the difficulty, the greater the glory - Cicero" True. High risk, high returns. Risktaking shd be properly rewardd

@Zen_Moments "Sometimes your only available transportation is a leap of faith ~ M. Shepherd" Cool & true. Faith guided by facts and reason.

@Rochbpu "I found there was only one way to look thin: hang out with fat people" But via osmosis, some fat molecules might move to you :-),

@GreatestQuotes "Anticipate the difficult by managing the easy - Lao Tsu" Cool. Managing d easy can give us insight how to deal w/ difficult

@kristin_09 I think Mla Polo Club, Golf club, want Manny Paquiao in. But they dont like the sight of too many bodyguards roaming around.

@cesdrilon Yes, Heart Center officials shd realize that patient Ampatuan is accused of massacre. He shd be in jail w/ dextrose, not in HC

Montberte Steve Cushing by Noysky
98% of the time I am right. Why worry about the other 3%. #stevec

@philoquotes "The firm, the enduring, the simple, and the modest are near to virtue ~ Confucius" Cool. Humility, simple lives and happiness.

@philoquotes "Freedom is the right to live as we wish ~ Epictetus" True, provided we don't trample on others' freedom or be a burden to them

@Rochbpu "What is the thinnest book in the world? - 'What Men Know About Women'" LOL. May not even a book, maybe a pamphlet, or a flyer :-)

@funnyoneliners "I'm not afraid of hard work. You can tell by the way I fight it." LOL. Simplifying d otherwise complicated hard work itself

@Oprah_World "Luck is a matter of preparation meeting opportunity. -Oprah" Cool. Opportunity also looks for those who are prepared.

@maria_ressa Internet allows more citizen journalism. Many prof'l journalists, media owners jealous. Their control of info flow is broken.

Could Breivik & fellow murderers love d welfare sys but hate migrants to enjoy & be entitled to such system? Welfare sys is very expensive.

Montberte Steve Cushing by Noysky
If your wife wants to learn to drive, don't stand in her way. -- Stan Levenson

Rochbpu Michael Repko by Noysky
The qualities that most attract a woman to a man are usually the same ones she can't stand years later.

Politics have no relation to morals ~ Machiavelli. Possibly explains why many NGO leaders, media pple as corrupt as politicians they attack

@piacayetano I hope PNoy will talk as liberal leader, not as socialist or populist-nationalist leader, bit.ly/oOmQ5V

@Karen_DaviLa NFA, almost all govt corps are milking cow by pols in power & d bureaucracy. Privatize them, pay pub debt, save int. payment

@ruffybiazon "drastically reduce unemployment w/in a year's time" Cut business bureaucracies. From 47 diff taxes & fees per year to only 7.

@cesdrilon More liberal agenda, less govt, less bureaucracy, free market, less subsidies for the lazy

@Karen_DaviLa Educ, health, housing, agri, pub works for d poor on-going, then CCT for d poor, soon condoms & ligation for d poor.

@RPeconfreedom Yes, the Renewable Energy law is a big racket & energy robbery by the RE firms. One of the man-made warming rackets.

Endure the present, and watch for better things ~ Virgil. Yes, hope, perseverance, ambition, goal. A realistic dream can become reality.

I had therefore to remove knowledge, in order to make room for belief ~ Kant. This describes the man-made warming belief.

Personal beauty is a greater recommendation than any letter of reference ~ Aristotle. Right, but it shd be accompanied by brains too :-)

@Jimparedes Yes, Filipinos shd learn to trust themselves, not politicians and govt. State reliance over self-reliance is formula for disastr

@dollyannec @WilsonLeeFlores SONA at 4pm, rains before that accodg to PAGASA tweet. So people will have SONA bath,bit.ly/oOmQ5V

@hermanncalero @piacayetano April 2011 labor force data: unempl 7.2%, underempl 19.4% or 26.6% of LF either jobless or underempl. Hi figures

AngAlvin Alvin P. Ang by Noysky
Winning 001: Positively contented people are discontented with the status quo, they desire growth for everyone. #quotes
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See also Twitter Notes July 2011, Part c,
Part b, and Part a.

Party List 4: Why it Should be Abolished

Last August 18, 2009, I wrote this:

Abolish the Party-list system

Here's another reason why the Party-list system should be abolished. Cockers and cockfight gamblers think their staff are marginalized, so they should be in Congress too, to represent their marginalized staff?

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20090818-220812/Cockers-enter-party-list-contest

The Commission on Elections (COMELEC) said that so far, 264 party-list groups are seeking accreditation. So many "marginalized" sectors and sub-sectors in Philippine society.

If there are so many marginalized sectors and groups in the country, then the geography-based (congressional district) Congressmen and women are a total failure. They have not addressed the various needs of the marginalized groups in their respective districts.

So either the district-based or party-list system should be abolished. It is not wise to keep both.
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Then on April 03, 2010, I wrote a longer discussion about the subject.

Party-list as a Marginal Concept

It is nice to take long vacation during the Holy Week. But politics and political campaigns would always dent an otherwise peaceful vacation. Among the noisy campaigners nationwide are the party-list groups wanting to represent you and me, on top of elected national and local politicians who want to serve and represent you and me.

The Constitution created the party-list representation in the House of Representatives, because the framers of the Constitution doubted that district-based Congressmen and women will truly fulfill their work of representing the various sectors in their geographical legislative district. Thus, up to 20 percent of the House are reserved for the party-list groups to represent the “marginalized sectors”.

This philosophy is wrong. And here are the reasons why.

One, there are no marginalized sectors, only marginalized individuals. Women are not a marginalized sector. The country had two women Presidents already, a number of Senators and House members are women. Men/males are also a sector, and there are plenty of poor and marginalized men. Youth is not a marginalized sector. Many dynamic legislators and local government executives are young. Workers are not a marginalized sector. The high-paid bank managers, corporate executives and mid-level officials are technically employees and hired wage workers too.

Farmers are not marginalized sector. Among the richest businessmen and women in the country and elsewhere also consider themselves as “part-time farmers” while others are full-time agri-businessmen. Senior citizens are not a marginalized sector. At least one past President of the country was already a senior citizen when he was elected. Indigenous people are not marginalized sectors. Among the most powerful local government leaders (Governors and Mayors) are from indigenous groups who wield political and administrative power over the non-indigenous people who are living in their localities.

There are rich and poor men, women and youth, successful and unlucky workers and farmers, powerful and marginalized senior citizens and indigenous people. The concept of a “marginalized sector” is simply wrong.

Two, party-list system has corrupted the consciousness of many private individuals. We often complain of "too much politics" in our lives, and now we have more private individuals, not belonging to big and traditional political parties, who suddenly become instant national politicians. There are more aspiring politicians now, more welfarists. Instead of more people saying "less politics, less taxes", we now have more people saying "more politics, retain or raise taxes, more subsidies.”

As practiced too, every election period, more and more groups are applying for accreditation as a party-list representing sometimes contrived sector as marginalized. For instance, the group of cockfighters, showbiz and media people, religious groups, electric cooperatives, regional dialects, and so on. In the 2007 elections, about 200 groups applied for accreditation, 93 were accredited. This coming May 2010 elections, more than 350 applied, 187 groups were finally accredited. The increasing number of groups applying and accredited for party-list, does this imply increasing irrelevance of the current and past legislators who failed to improve the lot of so many marginalized individuals in the country?

Because of the stiff competition among party list groups, many of them have acronyms that start with letter A, even AA, to attract voters’ early attention as the party-list are arranged alphabetically and voters have to choose only 1 out of 187. Somehow there is opportunism here. The groups abandoned the first letter of the "marginalized sectors" they want to represent; ie., not W for workers or women, not Y for youth, not S for senior citizens, not I for indigenous people, etc.

Three, the party-list system expands the already bloated bureaucracy in the legislature that necessarily needs to be sustained by more taxes and fees from private citizens. Perhaps this explains why none of those party-list groups and representatives in all congress since their creation in the 1987 constitution, ever advocated the slashing of taxes, if not the abolition of certain taxes.

What many party-list groups and their nominees or reps are after, among others, is a slice in the big pie of the annual budget that congress appropriates to various government agencies and bureaucracies. They want their own pie to distribute as goodies to their political supporters. Plus the usual power to create or expand existing national government agencies and bureaucracies, the power to grant or disallow, franchises to certain private businesses, and so on.

To conclude, the party-list system is a marginal concept. And if there are no marginalized sectors, only marginalized individuals, there is no logic to create a party-list for a non-existent sector. And even assuming for the sake of argument, there are indeed marginalized sectors and they are to be represented by the party-list groups, who are the district-based congressmen/women representing? If we say they only represent themselves and their rich friends, then we better abolish the district-based legislators and only have party-list groups, but we should not have both.

Unfortunately, the party-list system is in the constitution; like the Senate and other constitutional bodies. Whether we like them or not, we have to part with our hard-earned money to sustain those bureaucracies. The only way to abolish them is via constitutional change. But changing the charter even for this purpose is also a gamble. Because it is possible that instead of abolishing the party-list system, we may end up having wordings like the party-list system should constitute “up to 40 percent” of the lower House, versus the current 20 percent.

A friend asked me once, “will you still vote for a party-list?” The temptation is there. Out of 187 accredited groups, there should be at least one that represents the less government, more individual responsibility group. So far, I have not heard or read such group yet. And to simply stick to my belief that the party-list system is wrong in both theory and practice, I will not vote for any.

An example of an opportunist party-list, ABROAD. Joining the funeral of former President Cory Aquino last August 5, 2009, or 9 months before the May 2010 elections.

Today, August 4, 2011, I affirm my earlier arguments above and reiterate that the Party-list system is a mistake, it has encouraged not political maturity but political opportunism and corruption. It has created more hypocrisy than sincerity in public discourses on economic development.

The party-list system therefore, should be abolished. In the next round of Constitutional amendment.

I wish to defend this position in a public debate. So if you know of any group, institute or NGO that organizes a forum on this subject, I wish to participate.
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See also:
Party List 1: Opportunism, 2001 Elections, November 28, 2005
Party List 2: Opportunism, 2004 Elections, December 12, 2005
Party List 3: Marginal Parties Should Aspire to Become Big, January 12, 2006


Political Ideology 1: Liberalism, democratism & authoritarianism, January 04, 2009
Political Ideology 3: Liberalism and social opportunity, July 29, 2010
Political Ideology 5: Liberalism and the squatters, May 17, 2011

Fiscal irresponsibility 13: Obama on debt limit, 2006

Nice video here. Who said that " raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure" in 2006?

"The fact that we are here today to debate raising America's debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can't pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government's reckless fiscal policies...

Increasing America's debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that "the buck stops here." Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better."

- Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), March 20, 2006
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Meanwhile, here's another good graph, posted by my favorite climatologist who has a knack in economics too, Dr. Roy Spencer, in his blog post, The Debt Crisis: Compromise is Not an Option.

Dr. Spencer wrote,
... Unfortunately, just like the family that could not rein in its spending, so much of our population has become dependent on government handouts (which means, taking from those taxpayers who help keep our economy going) that it will be difficult for politicians to do what needs to be done to put us back on a path toward prosperity.

We must reduce wasteful spending, and we must reduce the governmental tax and regulatory burdens on businesses which are keeping those businesses from growing. Politicians must make tough decisions that will save the country without regard for whether they will be re-elected or not.

The problem cannot be fixed by “taxing the rich more” because (1) there is not nearly enough money there to fix the problem, and even more importantly, (2) unless there is at least some incentive for people to financially benefit in proportion to their good ideas, there is no motivation to take the risks involved in bringing new and better products and services to market. After all, most of those attempts fail, and people who want more of what “the rich” have, are not willing to share in the failures of those who tried and failed.

Living within one's means. Modesty in lifestyle. Humility to recognize the unsustainability of the spending spree. These things are lacking in many governments, poor and rich alike.

BIG governments, whether socialist or democratic (or republican) simply create big problems than solutions.

China Watch 15: FTA, ASEAN and UNCLOS

I posted China Watch 14: More on the SCS/WPS Noise in my facebook wall last July 11, then it attracted a healthy exchange from a few friends, most notably from Aiken Tafgar and Doods de los Reyes. The exchange actually expanded to other topics like economic policies; I removed that part, retained the discussions related to foreign policy and the Spratlys issue. I am posting this exchange -- in its raw form, unedited for capitalization, etc. -- with their permission.
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Aiken: Noy, if ever...i believe, this case will be tried first through the ASEAN-China dispute settlement mechanism, which is an agreement under the FTA. it will be long and costly for ASEAN, not to mention stalling the targets of the agreement. and magulo eto; viet nam, malaysia, brunei, phil, china all claiming to spratlys. i don't think international orgs will automatically assume the responsibility of resolving this issue because these countries have an existing FTA which has an agreement on dispute settlement mechanism. also, international orgs are handling too many cases where china is involved; china is causing them so much resources wasted on cases

But on second thought, hinde ata covered ng dispute settlement agreement ang geographic concerns or law of the sea, which is really handled by UN. or there must be a vague part of the agreement to cover that. masayang issue eto sa ASEAN, hehe!

Doods: I think China will push for a joint exploration agreement without clearly establishing which nation has sovereignty, they won't allow themselves to be dragged to the UN because they know that under the law of the sea they may be seen to be in the wrong. In the meantime, they will continue to build and strengthen their military presence while simultaneously giving lip service to pronouncing their willingness to settle the dispute in an amicable manner.

Nonoy: Hi Ken. I also doubt the Asean-China FTA dispute settlement body can resolve it because it is a strictly legal issue covered by the UNCLOS. ASEAN is a HUGE exports market for China, also a HUGE import sources. I really doubt that China will use force to settle this dispute, especially in areas too far south like the Kalayaan and Pag-asa islands which are very close to Palawan and RP.

Aiken: noy, goods (including SPS) and services disputes should be resolved by the FTA; the dispute settlement mechanism covers all the agreement's Annexes kasi. If parties signed a dispute settlement agreement, that must be accessed, 1st, before resorting to an international dispute settlement body, accdg to wto lawyers. But this geographic and LOS concerns, I doubt if this is covered by the FTA. On the other hand, UN may choose to withdraw itself from this issue, as well. It seems that UNCLOS doesn't settle geographic disputes. China will continue military intimidation in Spratlys until it achieves its goals. It's better for ASEAN-China FTA to use its Investment Agreement (signed in 2009) or those who claim on Spratlys can come up with a subregional investment cooperation. the first issue there is profit sharing. based on cost of investment and geographic rights? pwede! but who will determine geographic rights? hopefully, ASEAN will be able to form an arbitration panel to settle this part para masimulan ang investments sa Spratlys. sayang naman ang spratlys if underutlized!

Doods: like i said, China won't allow the dispute to go to the UN. http://globalnation.inquirer.net/5776/china-rejects-philippine-proposal-on-spratlys

Nonoy: China govt, being a communist govt, is a dictator. It puts guns on the heads of its people to support it or otherwise... The same dictatorial policy by the China govt will be imposed on other countries. So RP govt can negotiate with it on a bilateral level, but there is nothing to stop us from pursuing multilateral talks -- at ASEAN+6, APEC, UN, etc. Keep pressuring China at the international and multilateral level. That's why I argued that we hire more top caliber martime lawyers and diplomats, but never use tax money to procure more miitary armaments for Spratlys bec its useless. China would be happy to see a poor and highly indebted RP govt borrow more to buy token warships, then China will sink them anytime they want. But China will be hurting if pressured at the intl and multilateral diplomatic talks.

Doods: China is a bully, and that is worrisome. It throws its weight around instead of being diplomatic and negotiating. They have massive resources at their disposal, have built up their military arsenal and basically holds other countries by the throat because of their buying power and manufacturing facilities. They have no concept of honor, only face. Basically, they are not cowed by anything, even the UN. This is not some small country the international community can slap a trade embargo on.

Nonoy: But many if not all BIG governments are bully. China, the US, UK, France, etc. The US just enters militarily any country it does not like, like Afghanistan and Iraq. UK, France, Spain, Japan, just colonized many countries in the past. We have to live with a world with many bullies, we only learn how to deal with them, find out their soft part. For me, their soft part is not arms for arms, but international diplomacy and really hard research on intl law.

Aiken: ‎@doods and Nonoy Oplas, in the 1st place, it's even unsure if UNCLOS will be relevant to this issue because it has no provision on territorial sovereignty disputes, and China, actually, didn't accept certain procedures in UNCLOS (disputes concerning maritime boundary delimitation, military activities and historic bays or titles), which is its right evoked under Article 298 of UNCLOS (Beckham, 2010). here's the link http://cil.nus.edu.sg/wp/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/Beckman-ILA-Taiwan-May-2011-UNCLOS-DS-and-SCS-1-June-pdf.pdf.

Aiken: I believe, China is open for investment cooperation but profit sharing has to be based largely on cost of investment rather than territorial rights defined in UNCLOS because that's the only way China wins the game. China bullies because diplomacy will not achieve its goals. Even, law and maritime experts will not win this game for Philippines, Nonoy Oplas! Phil has to level down its expectations of asserting its rights under UNCLOS provisions. So long as we get some income benefits and market access to services (seafarers, professionals, etc.) from Spratlys, we should give in nalang, otherwise, we could be liquidated by China. And once the bratty bully china naman finds the negotiations slow moving, it will increase aggression in Spratlys or just continue with its exploration there. And the world will not rally against China for Phil.

Doods: Historically, the US has never "invaded" any country but rather "liberates" it. As for the "expand the empire" mindset of the past, that no longer generally applies ever since the entire world has been mapped and tagged and the UN came into being to keep the world from blowing itself up.

Doods: ‎@Aiken: I believe a joint exploration pact (which is what China is proposing) could be the best scenario. The Philippines does not have the capability to explore and harness the natural resources that the Spratlys are said to contain without a foreign partner. It would be nice to establish once and for all who really owns Spratlys, but what if the international ruling is that China has greater rights than us, the UNCLOS notwithstanding? We will be left on the outside looking in and no economic benefit to us, plus we will have to dedicate more security forces to make sure that China does not encroach further into our waters. China and the Philippines has historically been good economic partners and I'm hopeful that a fair agreement can be arrived at.

Aiken: Doods, no fair agreement will be arrived at because China will, by any means, win the game. the fact that China resorts to military aggression in Spratlys sends a message that it recognizes the overlapping claim with Phil. any arbitral body created to mediate here will determine territorial rights based on UNCLOS. but still, Phil will benefit from any agreement arrived at so long as we get access for our services and some rents on areas with overlapping claims. alternatively, since Phil has investment treaty with the US, i think, that can be used now to develop Spratlys and have US as ally against China's military aggression. China wouldn't also want an outright war with the US involved as it is a major trade partner. the problem with Phil is that it's not being resourceful and forward-looking. Had it been, massive foreign investments could have poured into Spratlys before China did this, and China would have had difficulty in intimidating us. But in any case (US or CHina as investment partner), Phil is down the drain; US will give us the same negotiation treatment as China would; US wouldn't give us more than what's available in the market for us. I'd prefer US as partner over China, though.

‎Noy, you should do a paper on Spratlys conflict, using game theory approach, detailing possible negotiation scenarios (US, China). remember the nobel prize piece on game theory approach to conflict? i'd like to write a paper now (katuwaan lang), but still swamped with many pending papers.

Doods: Aiken yes, I know China has the tendency to seek more while giving up only crumbs. but again i'm hopeful that given our neighbor status and good relationship with China our ambassadors can wrangle a good deal for us. I'm not really that excited about the US as a partner, though the MDT may prove to be useful in making sure that China toes the line in any agreement we arrive at with them.

Aiken: ‎@doods, i don't believe we have a good diplomatic relationship with china after hostage taking and drugs issues. the reason i like US over China is because the latter has no care on diplomatic relations. MDT should only come along with the investment cooperation as spillover benefits. tapping US as military ally purpose alone, in this case, will not benefit Phil much. it will be just like the issue of south K and the crazy north K.

Doods: the hostage taking incident is literally so last year. regarding the drug issue, China will continue to apprehend and convict, perhaps execute drug couriers whether they are Filipino nationals or not.China always thinks long term, centuries even.

Aiken: hostage taking was the 1st dent. on drugs, i know...and our govt shouldn't have negotiated there, what a waste and another stupid dent. despite those, china has no care on diplomatic relations...reason enough for preference of alternative powers. and this world, i believe, shouldn't be ruled by a bully! for me, china is distasteful! no matter how economically powerful it is, it remains distasteful in any angle -- diplomatic relations, products, government, etc...all distasteful!

Doods: i agree that China's diplomatic policies leave a lot to be desired. still, it's remarkable that a country such as China was able to emerge from a closed nation into a superpower that is even beginning to venture into space! if China were to help us start and build up our manufacturing facilities so that we can manufacture most of the stuff we currently have to import, we could see lots of progress in our country plus provide the employment opportunities that we sorely lack. The US would rather we continue to buy their products (most of which are now manufactured in China) rather than see us manufacture our own. just my two cents. :)

Aiken: Tafgar ‎@doods, i believe China will NOT help us become a manufacturing-driven economy. we'll be competing with China, then, and china will lose its market access here if we locally produce what we are, now, importing. on top of that, i believe we have edge on services, which china finds unnecessary, given it's manufacturing-driven economy. US, by the way, has been shifting some manufacturing from china to viet nam because of the latter's better quality. if i remember well, china had a history of rising to power, beginning from its ancient empire. with such enormous population and area, it has to evolve into cheap manufacturing, otherwise, its people will die. undeniably, china's rise to power is unintentional; the drive of the economy is to give billions of people temporary jobs so they can eat! china is a bitter economic power! same can be said for US and EU after the crisis, but the latter, in many respects, appear respectable. they bring technology to their partners; they spread knowledge. china is incapable of this and has no respect for IPR. if china rules the world, spell chaos :)

Nonoy: About the hostage taking, it's true that China got angry with Pinas. One consolation by PNoy was the boycott of RP diplomatic community of the Nobel Peace prize awarding to the Chinese dissident, Liu Xiaobo in Oslo as China waged a formal protest and urged countries to boycott the awarding.

The hawks in the china military would wish to knock down and sink any fighter plane or battle ship that will attempt to take on china militarily. They've done that to the Viets before, they sunk at least 2 Viet battle ships in the 80s I think. That's why a military solution to the Spratlys issue is the most expensive yet the most ineffective way to deal with those hawks. It's really diplomacy, officially and unofficially, say via the Fil-Chinese business community to possibly do back channel talks with their mainland business buddies who have influence with the top offiicials of the CCP.

Aiken: ‎in a way bayad tayo sa China since Pnoy boycotted the nobel event. but that was bad international publicity for us. and yes, military solution should be opted out. we'll lose resources, we'll lose in the war and we'll just pass the burden of war to the next generations. so long as we get our minimal expectations (jobs, rents, shares) from any investment cooperation in Spratlys, we should give it a go to either China or US. pero malabo na pumasok US at this point. too late, i guess.

Doods: i didn't like the fact that PNoy skipped the Nobel event just to appease a giant. in a way, we are no longer free with our political will because we as a nation have to show outward support for another country's political ideals to gain their favor.

Nonoy: About the Nobel Peace prize for achinese dissident, both China and RP govt are OA. Nobel is a private foundation, it is not an event by the Norwegian govt. So what if a private foundation like Nobel will give an award, say war freak award or peace award to somebody? China being a dictatorial communist govt, over-reacted. And PNoy being "we're ashamed of the hostage taking incident" tried to appease a foreign dictator with its own lousy boycott of the awarding. Kumbaga eh, parehong OA nagsama.

Doods: China, not US, may now be the world's leading superpower http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/07/15/america-or-china-the-world-has-already-decided-whos-no-1/

Aiken: ‎@doods, oh yes. we all know that even before the series of recessions hit US and EU. china is unstoppable. china joined every economic cooperation i've reviewed. and we know that those cooperation have silent political/security motives. i would understand losing some political will along the way because we have to play this global political economy. in fact, in general, some FTAs exist to ensure numbers in international politics. those ftas are usually trade diverting rather than trade creating (which means partners don't get the most out of it; partners are forced to source out products from their fta partners even if there are other countries that produce the same products at better quality and price).
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See also:
China Watch 1: World's Largest Economies, Population, 2005, April 20, 2006
China Watch 2: China's Tourism, May 17, 2006
China Watch 3: World's Largest Traders, 2004, June 03, 2006
China Watch 4: Chinese Nationalism, Tibet, April 23, 2008
China Watch 5: China's New Patent Law, February 10, 2009
China Watch 6: China-India Blog, Eco-Protectionism, August 30, 2009
China Watch 7: Rising Yuan, Economic Bubbles, April 07, 2010
China Watch 8: World's Largest Economies in 2010, August 16, 2010
China Watch 9: Liu Xiaobo, Human Rights and the NPA, December 10, 2010
China Watch 10: Is China Still a Communist Country?, December 21, 2010
China Watch 11: Big Brother and Inflationary Pressure, March 07, 2011
China Watch 12: The Spratlys and SCS Conflict, June 08, 2011
China Watch 13: More on the Spratlys/SCS Conflict, June 25, 2011
China Watch 14: More on the SCS/WPS Noise, July 11, 2011