Showing posts with label Elections 2016. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Elections 2016. Show all posts

Thursday, October 19, 2017

BWorld 159, Electoral reforms and the President

* This is my article in BusinessWorld last Monday.


President Rodrigo Duterte has been on a rampage recently, repeating his warnings about declaring a “revolutionary government,” as if he has the authority to issue laws and orders without consideration or fear of opposition from independent-minded legislators.

Among his previous rants include his order to his loyal leaders in Congress to (a) impeach the Commission on Elections (Comelec) Chairman Andres D. Bautista, (b) impeach Chief Justice Maria Lourdes P. A. Sereno, (c) impeach Ombudsman Conchita Carpio-Morales, and (d) create new rules in electoral exercises such as postponing and resetting the barangay elections.

Speaking of electoral reforms, some things are better retained and while others should be changed. Among these are the following.

1. Retain automation and do not entertain the proposal by certain sectors to go back to manual counting of the votes. The number of voters in the country is rising and machines should take care of the counting and processing of results (see table).


The lobbying of the son of a former dictator, Ferdinand “Bongbong” R. Marcos, Jr., to discredit the results of the 2016 national elections and canvassing for vice-president has been rejected by the Supreme Court — good riddance. It was a dangerous attempt by Mr. Marcos to unseat the elected VP so that he can be the second highest official in the country, a position that is just heartbeat away from the Presidency, a position held by his father for 20 years (1965-1985) via deception and large-scale military coercion.

2. Elections of barangay officials should be as scheduled and not subject to postponement by the President or Congress.

Elections should held at regular and predictable intervals to give space and opportunity for the people to directly demand accountability from their elected leaders. Existing laws mandate fixed terms of office for elected national and local leaders.

3. No to state subsidy to political parties as proposed by certain sectors. This is a wasteful use of taxpayers money. Politicians and political parties have resources of their own or have access to a network that allows them to solicit big donations from their friends and supporters. Keep the tax money for direct subsidy to the poor, or cut taxes instead so that people can enjoy the fruits of their labor.

Meanwhile, if the proposed charter change (cha-cha) should materialize, the following reforms should be considered.

4. Abolish the party list system. This is wrong in both theory and practice. In theory, there are no marginalized sectors, only marginalized individuals. Women are not a marginalized sector. The country had two women Presidents already, a number of senators and House members are women. Youth is not a marginalized sector as many young leaders are occupying very high political and corporate positions. Farmers are not marginalized as there are many rich farmers and agri-business entrepreneurs, although many farmers are indeed poor. Electric cooperatives do not belong to the marginalized sector.

In practice, many non-poor individuals and groups have entered the legislature through the backdoor afforded by the party-list system.

5. Abolish the Sangguniang Kabataan (SK). Young people should not be encouraged to enter the world of politics early because government, by nature, is force and coercion. Young people should focus instead on voluntary and civil society action and learn the arts of entrepreneurship early.

6. Elect only the political party, not candidates, should the Philippines become parliamentary. Once put in effect, parties will stay focused on their political ideologies and advocacy and not on personalities.

7. Go back to the two-party system. Very often, debate on public issues can be limited to whether there should be increased government interventions and regulations or fewer, whether there should be more and higher taxes or less, whether there should be free trade or protectionism. Candidates and voters can align themselves on either of two opposing positions.

Many candidates can be accommodated by the two parties and they will all go through primaries and knock themselves out until only one will represent the respective party. This could have prevented a Duterte win because many candidates in the 2016 elections talked about respecting the rule of law while Duterte repeatedly argued for breaking the law and short cut the process of winning the drugs war.

8. Or retain the multi-party system but have a round two elections where only the top two candidates will contest and “knock out” the other candidate in an open electoral system.

Again, this could have prevented a Duterte win because supporters of the 3rd, 4th and 5th placers can rethink their position and choose only either the 1st or 2nd placer. This will avoid having a “minority President.”
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Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Election 24, Generally peaceful and credible 2016 polls

Congratulations, COMELEC, for a generally peaceful, credible, and fast results elections 2016.

Congratulations, unofficial President-Elect Rodrigo Duterte. The people have spoken, you got nearly 40% of the national votes based on the SWS exit poll.

Bongbong Marcos is leading by 0.12 million votes as of this writing, no congrats yet. I still hope that my candidate Leni Robredo will beat you in the coming hours or days of official counting.

As of 1:20 am:


Reflecting on  this general elections, I think there are more good news than bad ones. Consider the following good news:

1. VP Jojo Binay finally loses in an election. He and his family were the alternating Mayors of Makati City (he, his wife, he again, then his son) for almost 30 years, then he won the VP race in 2010.

2. Securing the people's right to life (against murderers, rapists, kidnappers), right  to private property (against thieves, land grabbers) has trumped the politics of welfarism and rabid environmentalism. Duterte's single issue on fighting criminals proved to be more important to many voters than the promises of endless welfarism by the other Presidential candidates.

3. Among Senatorial candidates, populist lefties like Colmenares of Bayaan Mo Na and Walden Bello of Akbayan are losing. These two are rabid advocates of socialism, explicit or implicit. Risa Hontiveros finally made it after losing consecutively in 2010 and 2013 Senatorial elections. She's speaking mostly populist and socialist-leaning but her pronouncements are tempered by her direct association with the LP machinery which is definitely non-leftist.

The bad news, however:

1. Leni might lose?...

2. Manny Pacquiao will become Senator while Serge Osmena and TG Guingona are losing. Manny is a great man as a boxer and ring fighter. But later he has evolved into sort of a megalomaniac person, jumping into many activities outside of his core competence. Very good in boxing, but lousy as a professional basketball player, lousy singer, lousy Congressman. So he will soon be a lousy Senator? Sen. Serge has a good sense on energy policies, sayang kung matalo sya.

Nonetheless, the important thing is that the elections was held generally peacefully and orderly, it looks credible mainly because of fast turn out of electronic results.

We can move on. Work with the next President with a big mandate and support from the voters. Pero please lang, next President Duterte -- learn to respect the rule of law, let there be due process before penalizing criminals. Some may have stolen just a few chickens but short-cut investigations  and  penalties would say they stole cows and tractors and hence, the penalty is outright execution or "salvaging".

Learn to respect human rights. Kawatan man yan, may existing system of penalties na dyan, like X number of months or years of imprisonment, not outright execution and government-sponsored murders.

Lastly, President-Elect, while you said you were a fan of socialism and BIG government, at one time you also said you want a "minimal government." I hope you will lean more towards the latter and not the former. Thank you.

Update, as of 10:45 pm.

With 94.3% of national votes counted.
Graphics from gmanetwork.com, thanks.


Additional good news:

4. Grace Poe, Mar Roxas and Jojo Binay already conceded to Rody Duterte. He retains the 6+ M lead votes over Mar Roxas. VP candidates Chiz Escudero and Alan Cayetano also conceded defeat. Good move guys. No more hassle and complaints of irregularities or cheating. First time in Philippine elections that all major rivals have conceded defeat to a leading Presidential candidate less than 24 hours after the polls have closed.

5. Leni is winning, she has overtaken Bongbong by 0.25 M votes.

6. Soon we will not see the faces of "no car plate, no sticker available" DOTC Sec. Jun Abaya and MIAA Administrator Honrado, known for his so-called ignorance of "tanim bala" or "laglag bala" extortion racket at the NAIA. Among the "downers" of the PNoy government.

More bad news though...

3. Climate alarmism and renewables cronyism in the Senate will have additional voice through Migs Zubiri, strengthening Sen. Loren Legarda.


4. Francis Tolentino, currently #13, might edge out Leila de Lima now in #12... Tolentino is generally lousy as MMDA Chair, he used the position mainly for his Senatorial ambition and not to reduce high traffic congestion. Leila stood up against the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) Edsa occupation dictatorship last year. These INCs closed down a busy part of EDSA for 3N/2D (from Friday night to Sun afternoon).


Meanwhile, the PNoy bashers of "massive cheating to make Mar Roxas win  at all cost", learn to have humility and own up to your irresponsible statements. The same goes for COMELEC bashers. I hope to hear your apologies guys. Not to me of course, but to the Comelec and the admin.
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Winners and losers in the 2016 elections, by Dr. Jop Yap

A friend, Josef "Jop" Yap, former faculty member of the UP School of Economics (UPSE), then President of the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) and now back at UPSE, sent this to me. I like it, I asked for permission to post in this blog, he said Yes. So here it is.


Winners and Losers in the 2016 National Election
by  Dr. Josef “Jop” Yap
May 10, 2016, 1pm

Winner: Leni Robredo
The epitome of a reluctant candidate. The sincerity and candor she displayed during the campaign is refreshing and admirable. Her path to the 2022 Presidential elections has suddenly opened up.

Loser: Jojo Binay
He campaigned for the Presidency as soon as he upset Mar Roxas for the position of Vice-President. Personally, I am more relieved that we avoided such an obnoxious first family.

Winner: Mar Roxas
From the beginning his campaign was beleaguered by an image of non-winnability. This caused a division in the Aquino camp, with some openly supporting Grace Poe. His second place finish demonstrates that the Aquino camp should have put more faith and trust in Roxas.

Loser: Chiz Escudero
His ambition for the Presidency has been oozing from his body language. He convinced Grace Poe to run for President in order for her not to be a threat in 2022. At least we won’t have Heart as first lady.

Winner: Survey firms
The results of the election surveys reflected the actual outcomes fairly accurately. This has become a deterrent against massive cheating operations. Congratulations to Filipino statisticians!

Loser: Liberal Party Campaign Strategy
The last-minute attempt to unite the candidacies of Roxas and Poe was so pathetic. In particular, Mar Roxas looked so presumptuous and arrogant when he called on Grace Poe to meet with him to discuss the possibility of one of them dropping out.

Winner (TBD): Rodrigo Duterte
The candidate who came in from the cold. But it remains to be seen if he emerges a true winner. The Presidency may be way over his head. And with Robredo as VP, the threat of another people power “revolution” will always hound him.

Loser (TBD): Bong Bong Marcos
His strong run for VP shows that the Marcos mystique is still alive. Will Marcos’ loss derail his bid for the Presidency? Will there be Leni-BBM 2? Abangan.

Big Winner: The Filipino People
Voter turnout remains strong in national elections. Filipinos want their voices to be heard.

Big Loser: 1986 EDSA Coalition
For 30 years the Aquino-RAM-Church alliance held power behind the veneer of having instigated a revolution. The victory of Duterte and the strong showing of Bong Bong Marcos have wrecked this fantasy.

Biggest Loser: The Filipino People

When will we ever learn?
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I made this small matrix summarizing Jop’s arguments. Then my comments below.

Winners
Losers
1. Leni Robredo.
Path to the 2022 Presidential elections opened up.
1. Jojo Binay.
Relief that we avoided an obnoxious first family.
2. Mar Roxas.
Aquino camp should have put more faith in him.
2. Chiz Escudero.
Chance as President in 2022 is drained.
3. Survey firms. Surveys reflected actual outcomes accurately, a deterrent against major cheating.
3. LP Campaign. Attempt to unite Roxas - Poe was  pathetic, Mar looked presumptuous and arrogant.
4. Rodrigo Duterte. Came in from the cold, Presidency may be way over his head.
4. Bong Bong Marcos. Loss can derail his bid for Presidency. Or a Leni-BBM 2 in 2022?
5. Filipino People. Voter turnout strong, Filipinos want to have their voices heard.
5. 1986 EDSA Coalition. Duterte victory and strong showing of BBM  wrecked a fantasy.

6. Filipino People. When will we ever learn?

Overall, good analysis by Jop. In particular, I agree with his list of winners, except #2. Mar Roxas simply lost. In elections, there are no silver medalists, it’s a winner take all situation. I will add that Jop failed to mention the COMELEC as a big winner here, public trust and respect for the institution is very high now for its conduct of peaceful, credible, and quick-results elections.

For Jop’s list of losers, I agree with all, except #6. The Filipino people overall is a winner here. Generally peaceful elections, except for a few isolated violence and murders. If we have to add a 6th loser, it is the philosophy of welfarism as a paramount concern for Filipino voters. No, Duterte has shown that the paramount concern for many Filipinos is the fight against criminality, the protection of their lives and private property against murderers, thieves, rapists, drug pushers, etc.

Sunday, September 20, 2015

Election PH 17, Questions for Binay, Poe and Roxas

Reposting (with permission) some comments and questions by a friend, JB Baylon, posted in his fb wall. Then my additional comments below. The photos I got from the web, added here and not part of JB's original posting.
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September 13. 
There is something wrong with headlines of news items about the LP.
This one says Sec Mar's mom stopped a party leader from quitting. Another one says PNoy has chosen Leni Roberedo to be the running mate.

Excuse me. It is Sec Mar who is the candidate now. It should be he who is making these decisions - or at the very least delegating to others the making of these decisions. He needs to be seen as his own man now - and these headlines are not helping. Either the stories are not accurate - or something has to change in the way the LP makes its decisions.

We want to know that we will be voting for Mar Roxas the man qualified to be President -- not for PNoy the soon former President, or Judy Roxas the mother of the candidate for President for goodness' sake!


September 19.
ISSUES I THINK THE THREE CANDIDATES HAVE TO ANSWER: (SHARE IF YOU AGREE!)

As a political science student, and looking at our three declared candidates, these are what i would like to ask them in a public forum:

To Vice President Binay: how do you respond to all the allegations of corruption beyond claiming they're politically motivated? Why is your close associate Mr Limlingan still unaccounted for till now? Could he by any chance be on the space shuttle to Mars?

To Secretary Roxas: why should I vote for you given your dismal record at the DOTC and the unremarkable record at the DILG? You claim that politics never figured in your work, but what about the Yolanda brouhaha with the Tacloban Mayor? And the fact that the President sidelined you on Mamasapano - isn't that a reflection on the amount of trust - or lack of it - that he has in you?

To Senator Grace Poe - the citizenship issue aside, you have the thinnest public service record among the three candidates. We require commercial pilots to have a certain number of flight hours before we entrust them with a commercial aircraft. I will not agree to being operated on by a fresh graduate of Medicine. Explain to me why in your case we the voters are effectively being asked to put our trust in someone who in other professions wouldn't be the lead and yet is aspiring for the Presidency of the Republic!

Now aren't these the questions we should be pressing on our candidates???
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And here are my questions to the three declared Presidential candidates.

For VP Jojo Binay: You promise more subsidies, more welfare programs nationwide if elected President and yet you also support cutting income tax rates. How do you plan to sustain the budget for more welfarism without resorting to higher taxes elsewhere plus endless borrowings? Or you are silent about your hidden plan to raise taxes elsewhere and continue endless borrowings?

For Sen. Grace Poe: Lots of questions about your citizenship, you voluntarily gave up your PH citizenship (to become a US citizen) and reacquired it later. Your kids remain US citizens until now. Answer those questions convincingly. And you justified the Iglesia illegal, stupid occupation of Edsa for 3D/3N that created heavy traffic, cancelled flights, meetings for many people. Do you still justify the Iglesia bullying and arrogance?

For Sec. Mar Roxas: DOTC during and after your term (succeeded by another LP leader Sec. Jun Abaya) is lousy, inefficient and corrupt. I don't even have a plastic driver's license, don't have that new car license plate until now, after fully paying for them last May and April, respectively. As a Liberal leader, do you intend to keep the current BIG and bureaucratic government size, or trim it down?


Pahabol kay VP Binay: You are lying when you repeatedly declared in your provincial sorties that "you made Makati rich" in your nearly 30 years leadership (you, your wife, young son Junjun). What, Makati before was poor and you made it rich??? First time I set foot in Makati as a probinsyano from Negros Occidental was in 1980. I saw the high rise buildings, clean streets of Ayala ave. and surrounding areas. Makati was already rich even before you were appointed as OIC Mayor. 

Please stop your lies, VP Binay.
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Sunday, July 05, 2015

BWorld 9, Poitical populism vs. tax realism

* This is my article in BWorld last July 2.

Political populism vs. tax realism

THE 2016 general elections are just 10 months away. It is natural that people are discussing who should lead this country of 103 million people by that time. And more often than not, political and economic ideologies determine, whether explicitly or implicitly, people’s criteria in choosing and supporting their candidate/s.

The Philippines has a personality-oriented politics, not philosophy- or ideology-oriented. This is also true of other countries, to be sure. Political parties have come and gone, and others are moribund, depending on whether the key party figure remains visible and influential. Either way, candidates are easily swayed by the populist aspirations and welfarist demands of many voters.

During the two-party system that dominated Philippine politics until the Marcos dictatorship beginning in the 1970s, an ideological line, in hindsight, was supposed to distinguish the Nacionalista Party (NP) and the breakaway Liberal Party (LP). The Nacionalistas were supposed to be nationalists and trade protectionists, more state-oriented; and the Liberals were supposed to be globalists and free traders, more market-oriented. Yet both parties were ruled by the same elite, and the line that was supposed to distinguish them was blurred further by turncoatism. Two Liberals among the roster of presidents in the postwar Third Republic ran under the rival banner of the Nacionalistas and went on to uphold the supposed ideology of the Liberals. And then as now, as the presidency had always demonstrated, Philippine politics was and remains personality-driven.

Post-Marcos politics gave way to the multiparty system in effect until today, with other parties, other advocacies, giving voice to past attempts in the two-party system to present an alternative politics. Yet all these parties must accord with the practicalities of political survival by forming coalitions -- including the ruling coalition led by the LP and including its odd ally, the NP.

The foremost consideration for survival is the pulse of the electorate, and thus the mentality and behavior of politicians may generally be deemed a reflection of the mentality and behavior of the voters, as influenced further by the mainstream media and various advocacy groups. If voters think politicians are opportunistic and corrupt, politicians too -- without articulating it, of course -- think voters are just as opportunistic and corrupt. Many politicians feel there is high pressure from the voters for an entitlement and welfarist set of policies. These voters and pressure groups (including non-voters like those below 18 years old) feel that they are entitled to be given free healthcare, free education, free or highly-subsidized housing, credit, tractors, burial, etc.

It is always easy and populist to blame politicians who, in turn, take advantage of populism and the entitlement mentality by supporting high and multiple taxes, or pushing for a further increase in those taxes, so they will have additional revenues to fund various types of subsidies, including corporate welfare for crony firms.

Such political populism and welfarism coupled with corruption are costly to the taxpayers. While the politicians and governments of other countries, our neighboring countries, in particular, have their own brand of populism, their taxes are not as high as those in the Philippines.

In the 10 countries who make up the ASEAN, for instance, the Philippines has the highest corporate income tax rate, the highest withholding tax for resident aliens, and the highest VAT. It has the second highest personal income tax rate in the region.


Notice that Vietnam is rather aggressive in cutting its tax rates, coupled with liberalizing their economy to more investors, local and multinational. That is a good formula to broaden the tax base and possibly realize even bigger tax revenues.

If Philippine politicians and presidentiables cannot escape following political populism, then this should be complemented by tax realism -- people and businesses dislike high and multiple taxes, so the tax base becomes narrow, the temptation/incidence of tax avoidance rises, and overall tax collection becomes smaller than its potential.

Consider also that after almost one-third of people’s monthly incomes has been taken by the government, there are other mandatory and forced contributions to government-owned social security agencies (SSS, GSIS, PhilHealth, Pag-IBIG, etc.). And from the take-home pay (net of personal income tax and mandatory contributions), government further collects many other taxes and fees -- VAT for almost everything on consumer items, vehicle registration tax for cars, franchise tax for businesses, real-property tax, etc.

And that is one criticism of the ruling LP, that it is not acting liberal enough. Many of its adopted and implemented policies are far from liberal and closer to the populist and welfarist philosophy, while eschewing tax realism too.

Another example that the LP diverges from (classical) liberal philosophy of more freedom for the citizens and limited government is the proposed Cavite-Laguna Expressway (CALAX) -- about which Dr. Raul Fabella noted in an article that “the bid parameter should have been the lowest toll charge rather than highest premium payment to the government.”

Thus, future CALAX users should pay lower toll fees (more savings in their pockets) and not pay more because of the higher payment to the current government.

Tax competition among ASEAN member-countries is happening and winners, very often, are those who offer low tax rates and carry out tax regulations that are easy to remember and manage.

Presidentiables and political parties should consider campaigning and advocating for drastic cuts in both corporate and personal income tax, withholding tax, VAT, and other types of taxes.


Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the head of Minimal Government Thinkers, a Manila-based think tank that advocates classical liberal ideas, and a fellow of the South East Asia Network for Development (SEANET), a regional center that advocates economic freedom in the region.
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Friday, June 05, 2015

Election 12, JV Bautista and Toilet Politics

This Inquirer report yesterday elicited laughter and jeers from many people, even  from non-supporters of Sen. Grace Poe.


From that report, it says,
“A foundling by definition is stateless,” Bautista said.
 Election lawyer Romulo Macalintal has said Poe is considered a Filipino and a natural-born citizen under the United Nations Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness.
 But Bautista said that the Philippines was not a signatory to the UN convention.
 “There are only acts of compliance by the Philippine government to the convention but we are not a signatory so it never cured the statelessness of a foundling,” Bautista said.

I shared that news in  my fb wall with this joke: "From what I heard, yong 90% octane + 5% rugby + 5% rubbing alcohol ang nasinghot ni JV Bautista before he made this press con, hehehe."

At least 10 of my fb friends shared that story ahead of me and made these comments in their respective fb walls:

1. The PDEA should be alerted on the strong stuff these UNA guys are having. Oh boy. -- Gus.

2. This makes Grace Poe more popular and appealing. -- Aiken

3. My heart goes out to Grace and all other children who long to know their biological parents. But I pity more those whose parentage are known with certainty. Sons of bitches. -- Ethel

4. Am-Poe-nin si Grace... with apologies to former Senator Saguisag... -- Tomas

5. Atty jv i thought i knew you... i don't! Talk to the Marines. Where is your humanity? I suggest it is time you go searching and shut your big mouth! Shame on you! As if foundlings and stateless persons have no rights and are not humans like me and the rest! I have doubts about you... kunsensiya ba meron ka??? -- Reyes

6. These are freaking idiots... -- Rike

7. ayaw ko na sana i-share kasi mainit pa ulo ko pero, sige na nga, para makatulong na matalo sila...yan talaga ang issue mo? may kinalaman ba yan sa kakayahan mamuno? -- Byron

8. Wala ka ring bang kinalaman sa pinagsasasabi nitong isa pang bark dog mo, Nay-Bi? -- Joji

9. Mga walanghiya talaga ang mga miyembro ng UNA.  Pinaka-maruming TraPo!  Huwag pansinin, huwag iboto! -- Estong

10. magandang idea yan: "Orphan adopted by d King becomes new president" -- Gibet

A friend, Todd, commented on my fb status,
Nothing enhances the credentials of a self proclaimed peace activist and human rights lawyer more than going after a women because she's adopted. Is this Bautista guy as much of a fraud in all his dealings, as he is with this issue?

I think persons with some attention deficit problem would utter such type of attacks on the lady Senator. It was not her fault that she was simply adopted, not her fault that her biological parents are not found or never bothered to come out until  now. The main issue in PH Elections 2016 is the capability and integrity of politicians aspiring to become the next President of the Philippines just 11 months  from now.  JV Bautista's concerns are toilet politics, low-life demolition and personal attacks.

Lastly, I saw a new "theory" re JVBautista's inhaler when  he uttered those remarks, a joke of course:
"katol or sunog na chinelas na china-made."
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