Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Winners and losers in the 2016 elections, by Dr. Jop Yap

A friend, Josef "Jop" Yap, former faculty member of the UP School of Economics (UPSE), then President of the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) and now back at UPSE, sent this to me. I like it, I asked for permission to post in this blog, he said Yes. So here it is.

Winners and Losers in the 2016 National Election
by  Dr. Josef “Jop” Yap
May 10, 2016, 1pm

Winner: Leni Robredo
The epitome of a reluctant candidate. The sincerity and candor she displayed during the campaign is refreshing and admirable. Her path to the 2022 Presidential elections has suddenly opened up.

Loser: Jojo Binay
He campaigned for the Presidency as soon as he upset Mar Roxas for the position of Vice-President. Personally, I am more relieved that we avoided such an obnoxious first family.

Winner: Mar Roxas
From the beginning his campaign was beleaguered by an image of non-winnability. This caused a division in the Aquino camp, with some openly supporting Grace Poe. His second place finish demonstrates that the Aquino camp should have put more faith and trust in Roxas.

Loser: Chiz Escudero
His ambition for the Presidency has been oozing from his body language. He convinced Grace Poe to run for President in order for her not to be a threat in 2022. At least we won’t have Heart as first lady.

Winner: Survey firms
The results of the election surveys reflected the actual outcomes fairly accurately. This has become a deterrent against massive cheating operations. Congratulations to Filipino statisticians!

Loser: Liberal Party Campaign Strategy
The last-minute attempt to unite the candidacies of Roxas and Poe was so pathetic. In particular, Mar Roxas looked so presumptuous and arrogant when he called on Grace Poe to meet with him to discuss the possibility of one of them dropping out.

Winner (TBD): Rodrigo Duterte
The candidate who came in from the cold. But it remains to be seen if he emerges a true winner. The Presidency may be way over his head. And with Robredo as VP, the threat of another people power “revolution” will always hound him.

Loser (TBD): Bong Bong Marcos
His strong run for VP shows that the Marcos mystique is still alive. Will Marcos’ loss derail his bid for the Presidency? Will there be Leni-BBM 2? Abangan.

Big Winner: The Filipino People
Voter turnout remains strong in national elections. Filipinos want their voices to be heard.

Big Loser: 1986 EDSA Coalition
For 30 years the Aquino-RAM-Church alliance held power behind the veneer of having instigated a revolution. The victory of Duterte and the strong showing of Bong Bong Marcos have wrecked this fantasy.

Biggest Loser: The Filipino People

When will we ever learn?

I made this small matrix summarizing Jop’s arguments. Then my comments below.

1. Leni Robredo.
Path to the 2022 Presidential elections opened up.
1. Jojo Binay.
Relief that we avoided an obnoxious first family.
2. Mar Roxas.
Aquino camp should have put more faith in him.
2. Chiz Escudero.
Chance as President in 2022 is drained.
3. Survey firms. Surveys reflected actual outcomes accurately, a deterrent against major cheating.
3. LP Campaign. Attempt to unite Roxas - Poe was  pathetic, Mar looked presumptuous and arrogant.
4. Rodrigo Duterte. Came in from the cold, Presidency may be way over his head.
4. Bong Bong Marcos. Loss can derail his bid for Presidency. Or a Leni-BBM 2 in 2022?
5. Filipino People. Voter turnout strong, Filipinos want to have their voices heard.
5. 1986 EDSA Coalition. Duterte victory and strong showing of BBM  wrecked a fantasy.

6. Filipino People. When will we ever learn?

Overall, good analysis by Jop. In particular, I agree with his list of winners, except #2. Mar Roxas simply lost. In elections, there are no silver medalists, it’s a winner take all situation. I will add that Jop failed to mention the COMELEC as a big winner here, public trust and respect for the institution is very high now for its conduct of peaceful, credible, and quick-results elections.

For Jop’s list of losers, I agree with all, except #6. The Filipino people overall is a winner here. Generally peaceful elections, except for a few isolated violence and murders. If we have to add a 6th loser, it is the philosophy of welfarism as a paramount concern for Filipino voters. No, Duterte has shown that the paramount concern for many Filipinos is the fight against criminality, the protection of their lives and private property against murderers, thieves, rapists, drug pushers, etc.

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