Friday, January 09, 2015

ALF 2: Opening Dinner Program

The 3rd Asia Liberty Forum (ALF) officially began last night here in Kathmandu, Nepal, with an Opening Dinner program. Conference venue is Soaltee Crowne Plaza. Big crowd, 200+ people from many countries.



All photos here were posted in facebook and twitter by friends, none of them from my camera. 

Welcome remarks was given by Baishali Bomjon, head of the Asia Center for Entrepreneurship (ACE) and Atlas representative for Asia. Very articulate lady, she discussed the various  free market thinkers in Asia, from Lao Tzu to other recent  Asian leaders, as well  as a timeline of democratization and economic liberalization  in some Asian countries.


The Welcome to Nepal message was given  by Suraj Vaidya, Vice President of the SAARC Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Chairman of the Board of Samriddhi, and Advisor to the Prime Minister of Nepal’s Economic Group. He expressed gladness at the big turn  out of participants, as well as the challenges for Nepal to embrace market oriented reforms.

And the Keynote Address was given by Linda Whetstone, Chairman and CEO of Network for a Free Society, Board member of the Atlas Network, the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) and the Istanbul Network for Liberty. Her talk was on "Investing on the next generation  of Freedom Champions". She showed photos of activities by various free market think tanks in educating university students on the value of individual liberty, property rights, rule of law and market reforms. 

Linda is a fantastic lady, Not so young and yet so energetically active in spreading liberty and free market in many parts of the world.

The night's MC was Sarita Sapkota, the Communication and Development Coordinator at Samriddhi. Young, bright and very articulate, she navigated the program so well. A promising free market leader someday.

Dinner was great, my first exposure to  Nepalese food. 

A number of EFN Asia "regulars" were there too. I like this selfie (better yet, "groupie") photo from Wan Saiful's camera phone. From left: Wan (Malaysia), Wimonpug Promsrimas (Thailand), Peter Wong (Hong Kong), Pett Jarupaiboon (EFN-Asia Regional program manager, Thailand), Rainer Heufers (Germany), Barun Mitra (India), me.


Xingyuan Feng (China) was also there but he did not follow quick, so he was not in the photo. 

Earlier photo, when Wan was teaching Barun how to tweet again.

Ok, time to hit the sack and prepare for the conference proper later today.
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See also: 
Asian Liberty Forum 2015, Kathmandu, January 07, 2014
EFN Asia 43: Day 1 of Conference 2014, November 06, 2014
EFN Asia 44: Day 2 of Conference 2014, November 10, 2014

Wednesday, January 07, 2015

Asian Liberty Forum 2015, Kathmandu

The 3rd Asia Liberty Forum will be held this week in Kathmandu, Nepal. It is mainly sponsored by the Center for Civil Society (CCS) India and the Asia Center for Entrepreneurship (ACE), and is co-sponsored with  Samriddhi, The Prosperity Foundation (Nepal), FNF South Asia, and the Atlas Network (US).

Here is the program.

Day 1, January 08

6:30 pm  Welcome Address & Keynote Address

Introduction (Video) by Baishali Bomjan, Asia Centre for Enterprise
Welcome by Suraj Vaidya, Chairman, Samriddhi Foundation, Nepal

Opening Address by Linda Whetstone, 
Chairman and CEO, 
Network for a Free Society, UK

Dinner

Day 2, January 09

Speed Networking
Hosted by Deependra Chamlagain, Samriddhi Foundation, Nepal

Liberty in 2014

Welcome by Robin Sitoula, 
Executive Director, 
Samriddhi Foundation, Nepal

Address by Dr Ronald Meinardus, 
Regional Director, 
Friedrich Naumann Foundation South Asia, India

Freedom Champions in Asia: Reasons for Hope

Chair: Peter Goettler, Atlas Network, USA
Speakers:
Nouh El-Harmouzi, Arab Center for Scientific Research, Morocco
Cong Minh Nguyen, DoiMoi.org, Vietnam
H'ala Shakshir, Palestinian Centre for Peace and Democracy
Asoka Obeyesekera, Verité Research, Sri Lanka
Ulil Absar Abdalla, Freedom Institute, Indonesia

Casey Lartigue, Freedom Factory, South Korea

Elevator Pitch by Think Tank Start Up Training Graduates
25 graduates from the Think Tank Start-up Training will each deliver a one minute pitch to the audience. The winner, decided by audience voting will receive USD 500 prize money.

Hosted by Cindy Cerquitella,
Program Manager,
Atlas Leadership Academy, USA

Concurrent Breakout Sessions

Fund Students, Not Schools: Education of Choice for all
Track A: Big Ideas

Chair: Gagan Thapa, Constituent Assembly, Nepal
Speakers:
James Tooley, Newcastle University, UK
Rohan Joshi, Centre for Civil Society, India

Wan Saiful Wan Jan, 
Chief Executive Officer,
Institute for Democracy & Economic Affairs, Malaysia

Madan Rai, Ashoka Fellow, Nepal

Ensuring a Policy Win: Strategies & tactics to engage with governments
Track B: Think Tank Leadership

Chair: Dr Ronald Meinardus, Regional Director, Friedrich Naumann Foundation South Asia
Speakers:
Md. Farhad Hossain, Information Commission of Bangladesh
Chakshu Roy, Parliamentary Research Services, India
Ali Salman, Policy Research Institute of Market Economy, Pakistan

Innovative products to replicate
Track C: Products & Tools

Chair: Judd Weiss, Weiss Investment, USA
Speakers:
Fred Fransen, Common Sense Economics, USA
Shefali Malhotra, 100 Laws Project, iJustice, India
Surath Giri, Onion Films, Nepal
Kelly Dhru, Lawtoons, Research Foundation for Governance in India

Concurrent Breakout Sessions

Free market environmentalism
Track A: Big Ideas

Chair: Dalibor Rohac, Cato Institute, USA
Speakers:
Anil Chitrakar, Samriddhi Foundation, Nepal

Barun Mitra, 
Founder and Director,
Liberty Institute, India


Rainer Heufers, Siap Solutions Inc, Singapore

Effective Board Management for greater outreach
Track B: Think Tank Leadership

Chair: Dan Grossman, 
Chairman of the Board, 
Atlas Network, USA

Speakers:

Linda Whetstone, Network for a Free Society, UK

Bridgett Wagner, 
Director of Coalition Relations, 
Heritage Foundation, USA

Luis Miranda, Centre for Civil Society, India

Measuring Institutional Performance
Track C: Products & Tools

Chair: Kriengsak Chareonwongsak, 
President, 
Institute of Future Studies for Development, Thailand

Speakers:

Lorenzo Montanari, 
Executive Director, 
Property Rights Alliance, USA

Sumita Kale, Indicus Analytics, India
Zilvinas Silenas, Lituanian Free Market Institute
Robert Alt, Buckeye Institute, USA

Remembering the lost heroes of Liberty
A tribute to the great champions of Liberty we’ve lost this past year and a toast to continuing their legacy.

Hosted by Rainer Heufers, 
Founder and Managing Director, 
Siap Solutions Inc, Singapore

Expressing ideas for a Free Society; a Creative Competition – Awards Ceremony

Hosted by Sarita Sapkota, Samriddhi Foundation, Nepal

Dinner

Day 3, January 10

The next big idea: Alternatives to current governments

Speaker: Randolph Hencken, The Seasteading Institute, USA

Concurrent Breakout Sessions

Open borders & Free trade: migration & trade policies in Asia
Track A: Big Ideas

Chair: Suraj Vaidya, SAARC, Nepal
Speakers:

Ken Schoolland, 
President, 
International Society for Individual Liberty, USA

Cris Lingle, Universidad Francisco Marroquin, Guatemala
Kriengsak Chareonwongsak, Institute of Future Studies for Development, Thailand

Raising money for Liberty: How, What & Whom
Track B: Think Tank Leadership

Chair: Daniel Green, Templeton Foundation, USA
Speakers:
Robin Sitoula, Samriddhi, Nepal

Peter Wong, 
Executive Director, 
Lion Rock Institute, Hong Kong

Gulmira Aidaralieva, Central Asian Free Market Institute, Kyrgyz Republic

Evidence-based policy
Track C: Products & Tools

Chair: Tom Palmer, 
Vice President for Intl. Programs, 
Atlas Network, USA

Speakers:
Baladevan Rangaraju, India Institute, India
Jamyang Tashi, QED, Bhutan
Nilanjan Chaudhuri, Centre for Civil Society, India

Celebrating 10 years of Jeevika Asia Livelihood Documentary Festival & Awards Ceremony for 2014

What started as nine film entrees for the festival today boasts of over 100 entries each year from all over the world. Following a 2-day screening in Delhi, the awards ceremony will be held during the conference with a  screening of the best films followed by a discussion on the theme.

Host: Samta Arora & Sadaf Hussain, Centre for Civil Society, India

Concurrent Breakout Sessions

Are Religion & Liberty Compatible?
Track A: Big Ideas

Chair: Charu Chadha, 
Editor, 
Media 9, Business 360, Nepal

Speakers:
Bican Sahin, Freedom Research Association, Turkey
Chin Huat-Wong, Penang Institute, Malaysia
Ruki Fernando, Human Rights Activist, Sri Lanka

Building & retaining a high performing team
Track B: Think Tank Leadership

Chair: Nupur Hasija, Friedrich Naumann Foundation South Asia
Speakers:
Ashutosh Tiwari, Sherpa Adventure Gear & Samriddhi Foundation, Nepal
Dhanuraj D, Centre for Public Policy Research, India
Hamad Siddiqui, Center for International Private Enterprise, Pakistan

Messaging for liberty
Track C: Products & Tools

Chair: Daniel Anthony, Atlas Network, USA
Baishali Bomjan, Centre for Civil Society, India
Wan Saiful Wan Jan, Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs, Malaysia

Zero Hour with Freedom Champions

Mentors:
Ali Salman, Policy Research Institute of Market Economy,Pakistan
Bridgett Wagner, Heritage Foundation, USA
James Tooley, Newcastle University, UK
Ken Schoolland, International Society for Individual Liberty, USA
Linda Whetstone, Network for a Free Society, UK
Rainer Heufers, Siap Solutions Inc, Singapore
Robert Alt, Buckeye Institute, USA
Robin Sitoula, Samriddhi, Nepal
Tom G Palmer, Atlas Network, USA
Wan Saiful Wan Jan, Institute for Democracy & Economic Affairs, Malaysia
Zilvinas Silenas, Lituanian Free Market Institute

Freedom Dinner

Closing Address by Dr. Bholanath Chalise
Freedom Toast by Pinky Gurung, Blue Diamond Society, Nepal
Freedom Toast by Louis Lo, Shue Yan University, Hong Kong
Live performance by Kutumba!

Vote of Thanks by Arpita Nepal, 
Director of Research and Development,
Samriddhi Foundation, Nepal

Close out and announcement for ALF 2016 by Baishali Bomjan, Asia Centre for Enterprise
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See also:
EFN Asia 43: Day 1 of Conference 2014, November 06, 2014
EFN Asia 44: Day 2 of Conference 2014, November 10, 2014

Fat Free Econ 56: Major Global Economic News of 2014

* This is my article for interaksyon.com the other day.
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Last year saw another roller coaster ride for the global economy. Below is a list of the most important economic news around the world, and what we can learn from them as we navigate 2015.

1. Cheap oil

This is definitely the single biggest item of business news of 2014. From a record US$107 a barrel in mid-June, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at the New York Mercantile Exchange was halved, closing at $53 at end-2014.

Here is the chart for the last 45 years of WTI prices. The big question now is whether oil prices will breach the low levels of nearly $40 a barrel made in May 2009, during the US housing and mortgage financial turmoil.


Thank you competitive capitalism for reasserting yourself. The oil cartel OPEC was helpless in countering the new capitalism in shale oil and gas, especially in the US and Canada. The world has entered a world of rising abundance, with cheap oil seen cementing that achievement.

The shale oil and gas revolution in the US has catapulted it to become a major oil producing country, churning out more than nine million barrels a day. The chart below shows growth of oil production from 2008-2013.



Ten million barrels a day or higher this year is not a far out possibility as the technology for shale oil and gas fracking  keeps improving.

There are huge negative implications for many traditional oil-exporting economies like Russia and OPEC member-countries. Russia’s currency ruble and its international reserves have been walloped in recent weeks.

In contrast, cheap and stable energy sources kept businesses in Asia humming. They are generally not hamstrung by expensive and unstable energy yet that can make Asian companies become less competitive. Data below show electricity production in billion kilowatt-hours (kWh).

Source: ADB, Key Indicators of Asia and the Pacific 2014

2. Major decline in prices of natural gas, rice and other commodities

More people around the world are becoming coffee drinkers. Less tea and beer? Below is the performance of selected commodities as of December 31, 2014.



3. No fiscal crisis and low interest rates

Fiscal crisis by many fiscally irresponsible governments (FIGs) in Europe and elsewhere has been avoided in 2014. These countries have been hooked on a “spend-tax-borrow-borrow more” policy. If supply of credit does not keep up with demand and debt, interest rates should go up. This did not happen, which means capitalism worldwide is adjusting and getting more efficient, producing  more surplus that it can continue to bail out those FIGs with low interest rates even if they continue with their endless borrowing policy.

Data below show interest rates for UK, EU, US and Japan, 1999-2014.


Source: The Economist, November 20th 2014

In fact, there is deflationary pressure in Europe. High prices partly due to high taxes contribute to low spending by many Europeans. Cheap oil should encourage them to travel and spend more, but it seems the opposite is happening, as people are spending less.
  

There are two types of deflation. The good or benign one is supply-driven expansion of commodities due to productivity improvements in labor, capital and other factors of production. Thus, people can buy more powerful mobile phones and, flat TV at low or declining prices.

The bad or malignant type of deflation is when people are worried and scared to spend beyond their necessities. Low consumption means low demand for other people's production, which can lead to recession and hence more unemployment.

4. Inequality de Piketty

Inequality is natural and inevitable. Growth and wealth creation is faster if people have more economic freedom, the freedom to be industrious, hard-working, efficient and innovative. It also includes the freedom to be lazy, wasteful, non-ambitious and dependent, and these two sets of attitudes expand inequality in society.

So Thomas Piketty, the UN, WB, IMF, ADB, national governments, and socialists who complain a lot about rising inequality are wrong.

Today's poor are better off compared to the super-rich 100 years ago. For instance, the average life expectancy worldwide in 1900 was only 31 years. Even the super rich were lucky if they lived up to 50 years. Now, average life expectancy is around 69 years, so even the poor live longer.

5. Demographic dividends for developing countries

People are assets, not liabilities. So more people means more producers and consumers; more entrepreneurs and workers. Training people towards certain skills is relatively easier these days because of the continuing revolution in ICT.

Countries whose populations are either growing slow, or even depopulating like Russia and Germany,  are marked in red. Two decades ago, UK, France and Italy were in the top 20 most populous countries in the world. Now they are out.

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook 2014 Database

Notice that several African countries are growing very fast – Nigeria, Ethiopia, Egypt and Congo. Also notice that five of the top 25 countries are from Asean alone. In Southeast Asia, demographic dividend is very visible in the Philippines.

Our young and big population means more working age, less dependent people. Other countries salivate at such a scenario. They need more robots and migrant workers to keep their companies and businesses running, and they will be forced to offer competitive pay to attract migrant labor, including those from the Philippines.

6. Asian economies leading global growth

And they are able to sustain it, at least over the short-term, judging from growth data shown below.

Source: IMF


Overall, there are more positive and hopeful news in 2014 and previous years that can catapult the Philippines among other countries towards more abundance and prosperity this year and beyond.
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See also: 

Tuesday, January 06, 2015

Transport Econ 14: On the MRT and LRT Fare Hike

The fare hike in MRT and LRT trains in Metro Manila was implemented yesterday. This is a long-delayed move as any government subsidy program immediately creates an entitlement and dependency thinking in the public. People think that they are entitled to various and endless subsidies if not freebies from the government and are less concerned of the trade off or sacrifices somewhere else just to finance the subsidies and freebies that they enjoy.

And that largely suggest that the train fare subsidy is wrong, in theory and practice. 

1. If government should subsidize commuters in Metro Manila (night time population about 12-13 million, day time about 15 million), then it should also subsidize commuters in Bicol, Ilocos, Pangasinan, Cebu, Negros, Iloilo, Davao, Cagayan de Oro, Zamboanga,... People there are also citizens of the country and pay taxes. Double talk.

2. Government taxes and bureaucratizes buses that also transport so many passengers while it subsidizes its own train service. Double talk.

3. Government and activists say Metro Manila should be decongested then it gives many subsidies to residents and commuters of MM that effectively encourages people to flock to the metropolis. Double talk.

My undergrad organization at UPSE, the UP ETC made this poster to elicit discussions in their fb page.


The claim that if train fare subsidy is totally removed, MRT fares will rise to P60 or so is wrong, a bluff. MRT/LRT operators earn a lot from ads -- the whole trains, inside the trains, the train stations, the train posts, etc. -- are all earning revenues for them. This photo I took last December, LRT Divisoria-Santolan route. 

Ads will only come if there is big volume of passengers who can see the ads. Thus, train operators cannot raise the fare too high that will discourage many passengers and hence, discourage the ads.

A zero subsidy to MRT/LRT is possible.

Cong. Colmenares is 5% correct and 95% wrong. He is correct to say that selective subsidy is being done in selective regions or areas in the country but he is wrong to justify such selective favoritism. The train fare subsidy contradicts what many activists are advocating to "spread out" economic activities outside of M.Manila. How can you spread it out effectively when most subsidies are poured on residents of M. Manila? Like this fare subsidy, zero is given to commuters in other regions but P12 billion annualy in MM. See also Manila City, it has the most number of govt hospitals per thousand residents or per sq.m. of land: 3 DOH hospitals + 1 UP-PGH + 6 city-owned hospitals.

A report from Philippine Star yesterday:

From P12 billion, we're lessening the subsidy to 10 billion (pesos)," Lacierda said, adding that the government has to allocate resources away from Metro Manila.

Lacierda said that the P2 billion that will be saved from the train systems will be allocated for projects in Visayas and Mindanao.

"We did not take away the subsidy, the subsidy is still there," Lacierda reiterated.

P10 billion of annual subsidy is still big. It is possible to bring it down to zero. Many regular train commuters will be angry with this of course, but this measure will mean less crowded, more convenient rides for the passengers, and will reduce the animosity of people outside of Metro Manila towards the government and the metropolis residents. The reduction in public debt and reduction in annual interest payment is another positive result  of removing  the  subsidy as the government borrows yearly some P300 B to finance the annual budget deficit.
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See also: 
Transport Econ 8: Removing MRT and LRT Fare Subsidy, March 08, 2013
Transport Econ 10: MMDA and Car Ban, July 18, 2013 
Transport Econ 11: On Fare-Contracting Taxi Drivers, December 13, 2013

Transport Econ 12: Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and Tricycles, April 21, 2014 

Transport Econ 13: On Prohibiting S. Luzon Provincial Buses to Enter M.Manila, August 30, 2014

Monday, January 05, 2015

Two Years Writing for Business 360

A friend way back in 2005, Charu Chadha, produced a new monthly business magazine in Kathmandu, Nepal in late 2012. She asked me to contribute an article on free market, I said yes. So far I have written 20 articles for the paper :-). Here they are and the respective magazine covers for those months and years.

1: Nepal and the Philippines, November 26, 2012 
2: Free market means free individuals, December 28, 2012 
3: Fiscal Cliff and Government Irresponsibility, January 23, 2013 
4: Brownouts and Power Deregulation, February 26, 2013


5: Reducing Construction and Electricity Bureaucracies, March 14, 2013 
6: Peace and Prosperity in Asia, April 13, 2013 
7: Jeju Forum for Peace, May 10, 2013 
8: TPP, RCEP, SAARC and Free Trade, June17, 2013



9: Free Trade and Economic Prosperity, July 03, 2013
10: Foreign Aid as Band Aid Solution, August 11, 2013
11: Avoiding Middle Income Trap, September 19, 2013
12: Optimum Size of Government, October 13, 2014


13: US Government Shutdown and Lessons for Asia, November 28, 2013
14: Middle Income Trap and Economic Freedom, January 02, 2014 
15: How to Improve Economic Freedom in Asia, January 22, 2014 
16: ASEAN Economic Community 2016, March 21, 2014




On Wednesday, I will fly to Kathmandu to attend the 3rd Asian Liberty Forum (ALF). Charu and Business 360 are very kind to sponsor my plane fare. Thank you very much Charu. 

And happy birthday too.

Land Reclamation in Manila Bay

I support land reclamation in Manila Bay. Remove those thick silt, mud, sand, other solid wastes in river beds near the bay. Also the thick lahar deposits in Bulacan rivers that contribute to frequent street flooding. I am indifferent who should do the reclamation project, the important thing is that someone should do it, soon.

There are two (or more?) proposed land reclamation projects in Manila Bay. The Solar City project by the Manila Goldcoast Development Corp. in Manila City area, and the SM project in Pasay City.

Another view of the proposed Solar City. This seems to be the extension of the CCP complex, which itself is a huge land reclamation project of the Marcos administration some 3-4 decades ago.

The front area is not wide, it is elongated towards the sea.

In Pasay City, The SM group seems to have already bagged the project, 600 hectares of new land in the sea. Good. But Ayala Land is contesting the awarding to SM Land.

This is the proposed project of SM Land. Whether it is SM Land or Ayala Land or Megaworld or Federal, etc., I am indifferent. Just remove those silt and mud in river beds, make the rivers deep again. At no cost to taxpayers.

A friend in Marilao, Bulacan told me that in many barangays, the local government has constructed new roads that are around 1 to 1.5 meter (3-4.5 ft) high from the original road to spare them from flooding. Houses and shops cannot be raised that much, so these structures will endure horrible flooding every year. Lahar deposits in many Bulacan rivers are thick. There is only one viable solution -- large-scale, massive, sustained, dredging of the rivers. Remove the sand, stones and rock deposits in river beds and make them deeper again.

Pinatubo erupted in 1991, and brought down hundreds of millions of cubic meters of sand, soil, stones and rocks via lahar for 24 years now. 

Last October, I and some friends tried to climb Mt. Pinatubo via Porac River, Pampanga. We saw these, so many hills or even mountains of sand waiting to go down for the next 20 or 30 years more perhaps. That means flooding in Bulacan rivers will worsen in the coming years. Unless massive, large scale dredging of those rivers are done regularly.

Not only Bulacan but some Pampanga municipalities too, would be courting more frequent street flooding as the rivers are getting more silted. More sand deposits waiting to go down in the coming years. And this is in Porac River alone. The other rivers of Tarlac and Pampanga have huge deposits of sand and rocks up there.

These sand, mud, other silt on river beds need to be removed. Where to throw and dump them? Not in Metro Manila, not in Bulacan or elsewhere, but in the sea, via land reclamation. And more structures, more roads, more jobs, will be created in the near future.

MMDA and the city governments of Metro Manila, instead of hiring more employees, they should focus on regular, annual dredging of drainage, creeks and rivers in their localities. But they may also be asking, "So where do we dump/throw the hundreds of trucks of silt, mud and solid waste from river beds?"

Land reclamation is a good solution to that problem. Developers of land reclamation projects abroad usually buy soil and rocks from nearby islands or countries. No need to buy here, just use those thick and  huge volume of solid waste and river silts. Even the garbage disposal problem of Metro Manila can be partially solved by compacting these solid wastes and use them as filling materials.

Again, there are market solutions to market problems of flooding and  solid wastes disposal. But people should allow players with resources and ambitions to develop certain areas, and not just oppose and oppose to new initiatives.

* See also, Solid Waste Management to Save the Planet, February 09, 2012

Sunday, January 04, 2015

Deflation, the Good and the Bad

Many people dislike inflation or rising prices of goods and services, understandable. So deflation or declining prices of commodities is good for them? Who benefit, who lose, if deflation happens?

In Europe, high prices of commodities and services, partly due to high taxes, discourage people from high spending. Cheap oil should encourage them to travel more, spend more, but it seems it did not do the trick, now the threat of deflation in the Euro area is getting higher. 


source: http://uk.businessinsider.com/europe-and-deflation-2014-10?r=US 

And here is the recent inflation data for Europe.



source: http://www.bloombergview.com/quicktake/deflation

More news of deflation  fears.

From The Irish Times.

From Bloomberg.

This is standard Keynesian approach, monetary tinkering of issuing/selling and buying bonds, releasing and then getting back money.

Below, a good illustration of "benign" and "malign" deflation.
LAS - long-term Aggregate Supply, SAS is short-term AS, AD is Aggregate Demand.

Chart on the left says a "negative demand shock" makes people cut their spending, the demand curve moves to the left (AD1 to AD2), output declines (Y1 to Y2), price declines, deflation.

Chart on the right says a "positive supply shock" due to rise in productivity expands the supply (SAS1 to SAS2) of commodities -- mobile phones, flat tv, standard bread, etc. -- output expands    (Y1 to Y2) and price declines, deflation.


Source: David Beckworth, 2008. "Aggregate Supply-Driven Deflation and Its Implications for Macroeconomic Stability", Cato Journal. http://object.cato.org/.../cato-journal/2008/11/cj28n3-1.pdf

Part of his concluding notes,

"Adopting such a benign deflation-friendly monetary policy rule is important moving forward as the continued opening of China and India and the ongoing rapid technological gains are likely to create
positive aggregate supply shocks for some time.16 Consequently, an overhaul of the conventional view of deflation is needed, one that would incorporate the insights of the nuanced view of deflation and open the door for a more thoughtful monetary policy."

Government central planners do not distinguish benign or malign deflation, the same way that they do not distinguish causes of poverty, whether self-inflicted (irresponsibility, laziness, inefficiency, etc.) or nature and external-created. Governments just push one policy after another and those policies tend to contradict each other over the long term.

Since this deflationary pressure is partly caused by high taxes that contribute to high prices of goods and services, governments should learn to step back, cut taxes, help  bring down prices and encourage people to spend more.
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See also:
Inequality 21: Marx, Keynes and Pikkety are ideological soulmates, December  01, 2014 
Welfarism 30: Big Government and Corruption of People's Values, December06, 2014 
Top 10 News in 2014, Happy New Year 2015, December 31,2014