Sunday, January 13, 2013

EMHN 4: Free Trade, TPP and Public Health Protection


Our new global health network, Emerging Markets Health Network (EMHN) has a new website, http://www.emhn.org/. We are composed of independent and private think tanks in emerging Asian countries that believe in greater role for market competition in the provision of healthcare for the people, rich and poor alike.

Last month, EMHN Executive Director and a good friend, Philip Stevens, wrote an article published in WSJ Asia. Philip argued that free trade -- freedom to trade by producers from different countries and freedom to choose by consumers from different countries -- is consistent with protecting public health especially in encouraging the emergence of more powerful, more disease-killer new medicines. The opposition by Oxfam and other left-leaning NGOs to data exclusivity purportedly to protect public health is not valid, Philip argued.

Enjoy reading, cheers.
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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324407504578186882937216070.html#articleTabs%3Darticle

December 18, 2012, 11:41 a.m. ET

Free Trade Is Good for Health

The TPP can improve access to food and medicine. But Oxfam won't tell you that.



Last week, trade negotiators for the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) sat down in Auckland to hammer out a deal. This new multilateral trade agreement between the U.S. and ten Asian and Latin American countries could be the largest of its kind since the collapse of World Trade Organization talks in Geneva in 2008, so it's perhaps not surprising that it's coming under a barrage of left-liberal criticism. Oxfam and others now claim the TPP is bad for health.

These development NGOs argue the free-trade pact will impose onerous new forms of intellectual-property protection on essential medicines that go beyond those agreed by the WTO's Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property (TRIPS) 1995 agreement. And that this will make it difficult for the world's poor to access cheap drugs. But this is a misperception NGOs are amplifying, ignoring altogether the positive story about free trade and health.

First off, Oxfam's claim that the TPP will reduce access to essential medicines for poorer TPP countries like Vietnam or Peru is factually untrue. The U.S. government has stated that the TPP will respect flexibilities in the TRIPS agreement agreed in Doha in 2001 that allow developing nations to override pharmaceutical IP rights in a number of circumstances, including health emergencies.

Next, the vast majority of drugs on the World Health Organization's list of essential medicines to treat the most common infectious diseases are off-patent. So IP rules are simply irrelevant to drugs for many conditions prevalent in the poorest countries.

The same is true for common medicines used to treat the most prevalent non-communicable diseases faced by slightly wealthier TPP countries such as Malaysia. So many medicines for diabetes, hypertension and asthma are completely outside the scope of any free-trade agreement.

Still, NGOs raise the specter that the TPP will sidestep traditional patent rules by imposing punitive new periods of "data exclusivity" for essential medicines. Data exclusivity is a form of intellectual property that allows manufacturers of new drugs to retain the right to valuable data generated during clinical trials. The idea is to prevent generic manufacturers from using it to make copies until a fixed period elapses—typically five years in most countries.

Data exclusivity is rapidly surpassing patents as the most important form of intellectual property for medicines, as the 20-year term of a standard patent is increasingly eaten up by lengthy testing and regulatory requirements that drive up R&D costs. After jumping though these hurdles, an innovative medicine typically has around only seven years patent life to recoup costs and make a profit.

Absent radical reform of the drug approval system—which is unlikely to happen any time soon—data exclusivity is then the best assurance innovators have that their investments will reap a return. Otherwise, launching a new drug could become so expensive that patients may not have access to new medicines. That's why such considerations are now included in modern trade deals.

Despite what Oxfam thinks however, the chances that the TPP will lengthen the exclusivity period are very low. The five years of exclusivity for new standard chemical drugs is enshrined in U.S. law, so Washington cannot ask for more in trade negotiations.

Five years is also the standard to which other TPP countries like Vietnam and Malaysia subscribe, so it isn't clear they'll push for more. In any case, the TPP will probably only apply data exclusivity to new drugs, meaning that existing drugs remain unaffected.

Yet in the end, intellectual property and the NGO community's fulminations against it are a sideshow in the wider story about trade and health. These activists and their intellectual backers like to view free trade as somewhere between an agent of imperialist economic repression and a sinister vehicle for America's fast food industry, but the reality is that there have been few more powerful forces for improving health in the history of humanity.

Prior to the 1950s, the majority of the world's population lived a precarious life as subsistence farmers. Since then, the opening of global markets, first by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and then by the WTO, has transformed the health prospects of millions by raising incomes. That, and not IP flexibility, made decent food, sanitation, and new medical technologies available.

That's how the Asian countries involved in the TPP—Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei and Vietnam—have witnessed startling improvements in the health prospects of their citizens since the middle of the last century. Singapore signed GATT in 1973, and by 1993 there were no import duties for any product except alcohol, tobacco and automobiles, a situation that largely persists today. Singapore now surpasses many European countries for life expectancy, with Malaysia not far behind.

Each of these countries has reaped enormous welfare dividends by opening their borders to free trade. With poorer countries such as Vietnam now joining the party, millions could benefit from the TPP—provided they are not put off by scaremongering NGOs.

Mr. Stevens is executive director of the Emerging Markets Health Network at the Institute of Democracy and Economic Affairs (IDEAS), Malaysia.
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See also:
EMHN 1: Forum on Promoting Markets in Healthcare, IDEAS-Malaysia, June 23, 2012
EMHN 2: IDEAS Forum in Penang, Malaysia, September 01, 2012
EMHN 3: Penang Workshop Report, Seotember 10, 2012

Thursday, January 10, 2013

Drug Innovation 9: Treating Lympho Leukemia and HIV/AIDS

I like this story from the NYT although this was published half year ago. A dedicated scientist at Washington University studying human gnome and lympoblastic leukemia has developed the same cancer that he is personally studying. and subsequently weakened him, awaiting death. His colleagues in the research team set aside many things they were doing and focused only on one thing -- find out what is that disease, how it developed, and how it can be killed. Below is portion of that news report.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/08/health/in-gene-sequencing-treatment-for-leukemia-glimpses-of-the-future.html?_r=0


...Dr. Ley’s team tried a type of analysis that they had never done before. They fully sequenced the genes of both his cancer cells and healthy cells for comparison, and at the same time analyzed his RNA, a close chemical cousin to DNA, for clues to what his genes were doing.
The researchers on the project put other work aside for weeks, running one of the university’s 26 sequencing machines and supercomputer around the clock. And they found a culprit — a normal gene that was in overdrive, churning out huge amounts of a protein that appeared to be spurring the cancer’s growth.
Even better, there was a promising new drug that might shut down the malfunctioning gene — a drug that had been tested and approved only for advanced kidney cancer. Dr. Wartman became the first person ever to take it for leukemia.
And now, against all odds, his cancer is in remission and has been since last fall.
While no one can say that Dr. Wartman is cured, after facing certain death last fall, he is alive and doing well. Dr. Wartman is a pioneer in a new approach to stopping cancer. What is important, medical researchers say, is the genes that drive a cancer, not the tissue or organ — liver or brain, bone marrow, blood or colon — where the cancer originates.
One woman’s breast cancer may have different genetic drivers from another woman’s and, in fact, may have more in common with prostate cancer in a man or another patient’s lung cancer. 
Under this new approach, researchers expect that treatment will be tailored to an individual tumor’s mutations, with drugs, eventually, that hit several key aberrant genes at once. The cocktails of medicines would be analogous to H.I.V. treatment, which uses several different drugs at once to strike the virus in a number of critical areas....
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A combination of genetics science and pharmaceutical science is key to treating certain diseases, especially new or emerging ones. Which brings us to the importance of more medicine innovation and how it can be encouraged, or at least how now to impede it via more politics and more government intervention, like dishonoring intellectual property rights (IPR) like drug patents.

Below is another story on medicine innovation to treat HIV/AIDS. The good news is that more and more medicines and vaccines from more drug manufacturers are coming on stream. Since they are different from each other, both off patent and still patented, patients and health professionals can expect competition among them, both in efficacy and prices. Generic producers can help tighten the competition once newly invented drugs and vaccines have become off patent. The important thing is that someone or some firms must invent those new drugs first, assume all the risks and high cost of R&D. Once they are proven to be useful and safe, generic producers can come in later to produce new brands of the same useful molecules against HIV/AIDS.

More science, more innovation, and less politics. Public health and life expectancy are expected to be improving through time.
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http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=14&title=R&D-to-combat-HIV/AIDS&id=62556

R&D to combat HIV/AIDS

Posted on December 06, 2012 06:44:33 PM
Medicine Cabinet -- Reiner Gloor

“GETTING TO ZERO” new HIV infections and zero deaths from AIDS-related illnesses may sound difficult to achieve but significant progress in the prevention and treatment of HIV/AIDS is providing hope for patients and their families.

In time for World AIDS Day on Dec. 1, biopharmaceutical companies announced that around 73 medicines and vaccines are in the pipeline for the treatment and prevention of HIV.

The Pharmaceutical Research Manufacturers and Associations (PhRMA) reported that these are centered on improving treatment regimens, more effective therapies and promising new preventative vaccines.

Between 2011-2015, the World AIDS Days will have the theme of “Getting to zero: zero new HIV infections. Zero discrimination. Zero AIDS related deaths.” This highlights the need for greater access to treatment for all.

Nearly 40 medicines have been approved to treat HIV/AIDS in the past 30 years. There have also been advances in the diagnosis of the disease, allowing for earlier treatment and care.

The World Health Organization (WHO) attributed many of the gains to life-saving antiretrovirals that reduce the amount of virus in the blood so that patients has increased chances of staying healthy and have less risk of passing the virus on to others.

HIV can be suppressed by combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) consisting of three or more antiretroviral (ARV) drugs. While ART does not cure HIV infection, it controls viral replication and allows an individual’s immune system to strengthen and regain the capacity to fight off infections (www.who.int).

Even with the progress, there remain great opportunities to intensify research for better treatment and prevention of the disease. Until now, there is no cure for HIV/AIDS.

The WHO said that HIV has claimed more than 25 million lives in the past three decades. Globally, about 34 million people are living with HIV in 2011.

In the Philippines, there were 295 new HIV positive individuals confirmed by the STD/AIDS Cooperative Central Laboratory in October this year, or 48% higher compared to the same period last year. In January to October this year, there were 892 more new HIV cases, 48% more compared to the same period in 2011. The significant increase was observed starting July 2011 onwards, mostly breaching 200 or even 300 new cases per month.

The Department of Health-National Epidemiology Center (DoH-NEC) reported 2,761 HIV cases, of which 148 were reported AIDS cases, from January to October this year. Around 748 young people (15 to 24), and four children below 15 were part of this total national figure.

It added that from 1984 to 2012, there were 11,125 HIV cases in the Philippines with 1,130 AIDS cases. More than 350 people in the country have died from AIDS since 1984.

In support of the Millennium Development Goal 6 to stop or reverse the incidence of HIV/AIDS by 2015, the government through PhilHealth, has rolled out an outpatient package to increase patient access to treatment and education. First implemented in 2010, the Out-Patient HIV/AIDS Treatment (OHAT) Package aims to provide patients access to ART and the benefit was later expanded to include treatment for tuberculosis.

In the battle against HIV/AIDS, PhRMA reported that medicines in development include a gene therapy that uses genetic material to remove disease-causing aspects of the virus; a transdermal vaccine that helps suppress virus replication and destroys HIV-infected cells; and a first-in-class medicine intended to prevent the HIV virus from breaking through the cell membrane.

Many of the medicines are in Phase I and II of the long, expensive and complex drug discovery process. Phase I of the clinical trial involves a small group of people, usually between 20 and 80 healthy adult volunteers, to evaluate a drug’s initial safety and tolerability profile, determine a safe dosage range, and identify potential side effects. Phase II is the stage in which the drug is given to volunteer patients, usually between 100 and 300, to see if it is effective, identify an optimal dose, and to further evaluate its short-term safety.

When a candidate drug reaches Phase III, it is given to a larger, more diverse patient population, often between 1,000 and 3,000 patients or more, to generate statistically significant evidence to confirm its safety and effectiveness. They are the longest studies, and usually take place in multiple sites around the world (For the full report, go to www.phrma.org).

Biopharmaceutical companies have expressed commitment to continue research to prevent or treat HIV/AIDS. Policies and collaborations that encourage innovation and healthcare access are critical to this mission
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See also: 
Drug Innovation 6: Dealing with Drug-Resistant TB, November 30, 2012
Drug Innovation 7: IFPMA, Superbugs and Tropical Diseases, December 04, 2012
Drug Innovation 8: Treating Men's Cancer, December 20, 2012

PhilHealth Watch 14: Not Yet 85 Percent Coverage

* This is my article yesterday in the online magazine, 
http://thelobbyist.biz/index.php/perspectives/less-government/item/142-universal-healthcare-and-philhealth
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Universal health care (UHC) is a noble goal and I fully support it. Everyone will get sick somewhere in his/her lifetime so everyone must have a health insurance. It does not mean though that UHC should be implemented only or dominated by the government.

In the Philippines, there are no government carinderia or restaurant corporation, or a government grocery or supermarket corporation, or government tilapia or poultry or vegetable corporation, and yet people are eating. So the food sector is a prime example that it is possible to serve the public even if there is zero or little government involvement in direct service provision. The key is product and price differentiation, market segmentation, which allows various food producers and suppliers to serve various food consumers with different taste, preference and budget.

UHC is attained if at least 85 percent of the total Philippine population is covered by the Philippine Health Insurance Corporation (PHIC or PhilHealth). Since its creation in 1995 and despite various schemes from various administrations (Ramos, Estrada, Arroyo, Aquino), PhilHealth has not attained that 85 percent beneficiary coverage. Last year though, PhilHealth reported that it has finally achieved the UHC coverage.

 
Source: Dr. Eduardo P. Banzon, PhilHealth SHiNES, presented at the Asian Institute of Management, November 26, 2012

I think there is something wrong with the above numbers. PhilHealth assumes that most if not all members have dependents – legitimate non-working spouse, legitimate children below 18 years old, and parents above 60 years old. This is not true.

Many members either do not have any dependent yet, or have just one or two. For instance, parents who are either below or above 60 but still working are PhilHealth members themselves and cannot be declared as dependents. If they have three children who are already working and have no families yet, then that is equal to five members and all have no dependents.But for PhilHealth , there are 10 to 15 people who are covered or enrolled as beneficiaries already. I think this is dishonest math.

In the above table, PhilHealth made the following multipliers: formal government x 3; formal private, OFWs and lifetime, x 2; IPP x 2.3; Sponsored NHTS x 4.2, Sponsored LGUs x 3.7. So the 29.28 million members translate to 81.63 million people or an average multiplier of 2.8.

If we compare labor force data from the National Statistics Office (NSO), there is a big discrepancy with PhilHealth data.

As of October 2012, there were 40.43 million Filipinos in the labor force, of which 37.67 million were employed and 2.76 million were unemployed. If we just take the employed people as possible PhilHealth members, there should be 37.7 million PhilHealth members.

This already shows an 8.4 million discrepancy with actual or registered PhilHealth members. If the 2.6 million OFWs are not included as they are not included in the NSO labor force survey data, plus the 0.6 million lifetime members (mainly the senior citizens and retirees), the discrepancy goes up to 11.6 million people, even assuming that the very poor, sponsored individuals are all employed, which is not the case.

One way to correct this possible dishonesty in beneficiary coverage is for PhilHealth to give a health card not only to registered members but also to all their declared dependents. So that even babies and children should have their own health cards too, to be presented to hospitals when they are confined.

On another note, the Department of Health budget has been ramping up recently, rising by around P10 billion a year from 2010 to 2013, mainly to expand PhilHealth coverage of more than 5 million poor households who are also in the CCT program of the DSWD.

On top of that, the mandatory contributions for each member have been hiked except the lifetime members who pay none.

 

Then the hike in Sin Tax law or RA 10351 was recently enacted. These three moves – hike in regular DOH budget, hike in PhilHealth mandatory contributions, and higher revenues from higher taxes on tobacco and alcohol products – mean even bigger money and role for government in healthcare.

While “better government healthcare for the poor” looks promising, promises are often different from reality. We go back to the above discussion in the food sector where there is not a single government corporation or agency involved in direct provision of food to the people and yet people are eating.  The trick is competition among various food providers and suppliers, they bend backwards if needed to attract more consumers. Competition is absent when government monopolizes a service, like healthcare.

One alternative scheme that can reflect the reality in the food sector, is for government to shift to health voucher system. Not this year or the next, but a possibility that the DOH and PhilHealth can consider in the near future. We will discuss this proposal in another paper as it will require some elaborate explanation.
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These two tables below are part of Dr. Banzon's presentation but not included in the article above. It shows PhiliHealth funding with and without the Sin tax money as there was some uncertainty yet in late November whether the sin tax bill will become a law or not. With the enactment of the law (RA 10351) in mid-December 2012, they will be using the second table for PhilHealth spending this year and succeeding years.

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See also:
PhilHealth Watch 10: Hospital Bill Deductions, December 29, 2011
PhilHealth Watch 11: Is PHIC an Insurance Company?, June 12, 2012
PhilHealth Watch 12: Assistance to Leptospirosis Patients, September 03, 2012
PhilHealth Watch 13: SHInES on Social Solidarity, November 26, 2012

Sunday, January 06, 2013

Fat-Free Econ 36: Peso Appreciation, Growth and Less Government

* This is my article two days ago in TV5's news portal,
http://www.interaksyon.com/business/51944/fat-free-economics--why-the-peso-is-appreciating
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There has been a number of rather positive news about the Philippine economy at the end of last year extending up to the New Year. Among the more prominent ones are the impressive growth in the stock market, the high third-quarter GDP growth, and the peso appreciation. The latter is often seen as an indicator of confidence in the local economy by investors abroad, whether institutional or individual.


They bring their foreign currencies into the Philippines for investment, tourism and recreation, support for families and friends here, and for various other reasons. These increase the demand for the Philippine peso relative to other currencies, at least temporarily, resulting in the peso appreciation. Here are some relevant numbers.

Among developed and emerging economies in Asia, only the South Korean won had a larger appreciation than the peso. The Indonesian rupiah, Japanese yen, Indian and Pakistan rupees even depreciated relative to the US dollar (see Table 1).

 
Source: The Economist, January 4th 2013, Trade, exchange rates, budget balances and interest rates

When the peso (or other currencies) appreciate relative to a major currency, many sectors benefit like importers, Filipinos who are travelling abroad, other foreign currency buyers. The prices of imported petroleum products can go down even if world prices have stabilized or slightly increased, benefitting the transportation, industrial and other sectors of the economy.

Some sectors though are worse off, like the families of the OFWs, exporters, and business process outsourcing (BPO) firms.  There are winners and losers in every change in economic conditions. It is just a question of how much is the net gain or net loss for the whole economy.

What could be the main contributors to the peso and other Asian currencies’ appreciation or depreciation?

The most proximate explanation is the current account balance, which comprises exports less imports of goods and services (merchandise and non-merchandise trade, overseas remittances) and transfers. So countries that have negative or low balances tend to suffer currency depreciation.

Then there is capital account balance, or the net result in the inflows minus outflows of capital like foreign direct investments, stock market investments, and foreign debt less repayment. But there is sometimes a lag between the capital account balance and currency changes.

Another factor is the budget balance although the causality between this and currency movements is not very clear, more of a slight interrelationship. Nonetheless, countries that have persistently high budget deficits and high public debt are candidates for future fiscal and economic instability. Below are some numbers to crunch.

 
Source: same as Table 1

Short-term, three-month interest rates are included in the above table. With the exception of Hong Kong and Japan, countries that experienced currency depreciation or low appreciation – Vietnam, Indonesia, India and Pakistan – have high interest rates. The foreign exchange risk seems to have been “converted” into interest rate risk.

Hong Kong and Japan are able to escape this trend mainly because of their mature and stable credit markets. The bulk of Japan government debt, for instance, is not with foreign lenders but with Japanese nationals, so foreign currency risk from public debt is significantly reduced or limited.

The challenge for the Philippine economy is to limit those government-generated risks like persistent budget deficits and ever-rising public debt, and government business bureaucracies that limit and sometimes scare investment and entrepreneurship in some sectors of the economy.

As economic uncertainty in the US and Europe linger, many businesses and entrepreneurs there are looking for alternative economies where they can jump ship. The rise in stock market investments is a good indicator for the Philippines but that is insufficient given the high degree of poverty and unemployment in the country. This is despite the argument I made in an earlier column that some unemployment is voluntary and indicates “joblessness by choice” due to a high “reservation wage” among job seekers.

As economic optimism outpaces pessimism, the unemployment condition may not necessarily decline as more people raise their “reservation wage” in anticipation of better economic and business opportunities to come. What is important is that economic growth should remain high; the economic pie should continue to expand fast. Government policies that tend to discourage more entrepreneurship should be drastically cut or eliminated.
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See also:
Fat-Free Econ 32: GDP Growth, Stockmarket and Rule of Law, December 01, 2012

Wednesday, January 02, 2013

Transport Econ 7: Encourage Branding, Deregulate Fares of Taxi

* This is my article last week in TL online magazine,
http://thelobbyist.biz/index.php/perspectives/less-government/item/141-taxi-and-corporate-branding
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 The Christmas holiday season is a time of very high demand for taxi relative to their supply. Different complaints by passengers would be heard while complaints by taxi drivers, justified or not, are often not heard. So proposals like rounding off and penalizing if not sending to prison all taxi drivers who choose their passengers. or choose their destinations, or demand higher fare beyond those indicated in their fare metrics, have been circulated.

There are two problems that I see. One, there is insufficient branding of taxi. Unlike airlines, shipping lines and bus lines, there are no clear taxi brands that people can easily find or recommend, except the yellow and “Bayan ko” white airport taxi whose routes are restricted to and from the airports.
Two, fares are uniform and government regulated, there is no leeway to adjust fares to reflect seasons of high and low demand for taxi service.

These problems are interrelated so the general solution is to have more brand competition and less government intervention. How?

One, allow corporate branding of taxis. In buses, Victory bus, Five Star bus, Ceres Liner, others, they have hundreds or even thousands of buses and only one corporate brand. If a bus driver misbehaves and got involved in a road accident, people and government authorities demonize the bus line not just the driver. So the bus companies really discipline and motivate their drivers as their action or misdemeanor directly reflects on the bus company’s brand and credibility.

Two, deregulate taxi fare. Let taxi firms put up expensive cars with expensive but courteous drivers charge expensive fares, especially on high passengers demand season. Airlines have deregulated fares, so at low passenger season, they offer lots of cheap fares promo, and on high passengers season, they jack up their fares to compensate for their low revenues or even loses on low passengers season.

Certain bus lines offer special buses on certain destinations – few and wide seats, long legroom, with toilet, only one stop for meals – and they charge higher fares. The same should apply for taxi companies. More market segmentation will solve many supply problems, and taxi drivers will be motivated to become courteous and efficient so they can be hired someday by these high end taxi companies. The single fare system kills innovation.

On another note, when I was in Hong Kong last November, I saw this cab driver.

 He has four small cell phones to his left, a Samsung galaxy to his right, all are open with five different cords attached to his ear phone. He switches from one cord to another to receive each phone call or make a call, without holding or touching any of those phones, without taking his eyes off the road. Below these four small phones is the sixth gadget, an iPad that he can open anytime.

Fantastic driver. He looks sharp. He talks fast, he switches the cords from one cell phone to another fast, without taking his eyes off the road. So he is able to communicate with his family, friends, or his taxi company anytime anywhere while doing his job. The iPad I think, he will open when he stops to eat or pee, and open his facebook or twitter. I just do not know how common this is among Hong Kong taxi drivers.

One possibility is that he is not an ordinary cab driver, he could be the dispatcher or even the owner of the taxi fleet. In some developed countries where labor is scarce, a taxi company pays any  driver who accepts to take calls and picks up passengers as instructed.

He could be the dispatcher or company owner as he does not appear like an ordinary taxi driver, more of an owner-driver.

In contrast, when we flew back to Manila and got out of NAIA/Manila airport and took the yellow airport taxi, as soon as we got out of the terminal building, the driver said his meter machine is not working and suggested that we will just negotiate the fare when we reach our house. I insisted that he put on the meter reader, he did and it indeed was shabby. When we got home, he produced a receipt from his meter reader, it said P298 for a 6.7 kms distance. His meter reader is tampered, I usually pay only P200 for that short distance on a yellow cab. He later agreed to a P200 fare.

A passenger that feels cheated by the driver of any of the two accredited taxis at the airport, the yellow and white taxi, can complain to NAIA later, but that is waiting for the NAIA authorities to act on the erring driver/s, assuming that they will act on a complaint. A more active, more public-friendly option is to allow passengers to boycott and blacklist a particular brand and go to another brand. In the current duopoly airport taxi system in the country, this is not possible. Passengers simply have to prepare extra cash in case they get cheated, although this does not happen all the time.
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See also:
Transport Econ 3: Brand Competition Among Jeepneys and Buses, August 20, 2010 
Transport Econ 4: Tricycles, November 15, 2010 
Transport Econ 5: Trisikad, June 22, 2011 
Transport Econ 6: More on Office Bus Carpooling, July 09, 2012 
Fat-Free Econ 14: Traffic, Car-pooling and LTFRB, June 21, 2012

Fat-Free Econ 35: World's 25 Largest Economies in 2012

This is my article in TV5's news portal last December 31,
http://www.interaksyon.com/business/51641/fat-free-economics--philippine-economic-prospects-viewed-against-global-growth-scene
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Diversity and spontaneity are important characteristics of the human mind if unhindered in pursuing individual talent and creativity. The more restrictions and limitations imposed on people, the less creative and innovative they can be.

This is the case of many developed economies as welfare populism has tied their entrepreneurial creativity and public finance, resulting in slow growth, and even economic contraction in some European economies like the so-called PIGS – Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain.

With modern technology, political restrictions and bureaucratic bottlenecks are somehow circumvented, allowing politically suppressed economies to grow fast. This is the case of the BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and to a certain extent, Indonesia.

Below is a quick rundown of GDP size and growth of the major global economies. We used the purchasing power parity (PPP) valuation of GDP as it reduces or eliminates hyper valuation of goods and services in many developed economies and put their values at par with those in developing economies.

There are some interesting facts in the table.

One, three Asian countries make it to the top four largest economies in the world.

Two, if growth rates over the past six years, 2006-2011, are maintained, China’s GDP will likely overtake that of the US in about five years or so, at least in PPP valuation.

Three, India has overtaken Japan this year. On a per capita GDP basis, the gap between the two is huge of course, like the gap between China and the US.

Four, at current growth rates, South Korea will land in the top 10 largest economies in less than five years, over-taking Mexico and Italy.

Five, Taiwan’s economy will touch the one trillion dollar mark in about three years if similar growth is sustained, joining the five other Asian economies including Indonesia.

Six, if the Philippines will maintain a 5 percent average growth rate over the next few years, its GDP size will reach the half-trillion dollar mark in about four years or by 2016.


 
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook (WEO) database, October 2012.

There are several positive things going for the Philippines to grow five percent or higher, including the following:

Sustained OFW remittances growing at nearly $2 billion a year: $20.74 billion in 2010, $22.35 billion in 2011, and projected to reach $24-plus billion in 2012. More skilled labor is going abroad, like those in shipping, healthcare, management and telecoms.

The BPO industry at nearly $11 billion in 2011 and projected to reach $25 billion in 2016. So far this is the most dynamic sector as labor rigidities in the developed economies are not expected to be relaxed soon.

Renewed interest in the local stock market, among the best performing in the world in 2011 and 2012. This year, it was up by nearly 33 percent over 2011.

Tourism is also showing a huge potential as the successful peace negotiations with the MILF in Mindanao and the open skies policy provides access to more resorts across the country.

While things can be gloomy in other economies in the world, it is more optimistic in many emerging economies like the Philippines. Governments do not have to “bend backwards” and offer various fiscal incentives. They just need to promulgate the rule of law, to guarantee that contracts are respected, honored and enforced, and violators are punished accordingly.

The stability of contracts and predictability of policies, plus keeping away from the welfare populism and politics of envy that has trapped many developed countries, are important ingredients for stable and sustainable growth.

Human imagination and innovation is without limit. It is an endless, unfathomable resource.  This ensures that economic and social growth can be sustained, especially now that we have seen the social trappings of welfare populism, labor and government rigidities.
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See also:
Fat-Free Econ 31: On the Kasambahay, Solo Parents Welfare Bills, November 26, 2012

Tuesday, January 01, 2013

Happy New Year

Fireworks, nice food, wine, beer, other high octane or low octane drinks. Good way to greet the new year, always looking up, hopeful and cheerful for the coming year.



A good friend, Boye Quiambao, posted this in her facebook wall yesterday, I like it, so am reposting here.

Recipe for a Happy New Year
(Anonymous)

Take twelve fine, full-grown months and see that these are thoroughly free from old memories of bitterness, rancor and hate. Cleanse them completely from every clinging spite. Pick off all specks of pettiness and littleness. In short, see that these months are freed from all the past -- have them fresh and clean as when they first came from the great storehouse of Time. Cut these months into thirty or thirty-one equal parts. Do not attempt to make up the whole batch at one time (so many persons spoil the entire lot this way) but prepare one day at a time.

Into each day put equal parts of faith, patience, courage, work (some people omit this ingredient and so spoil the flavor of the rest), hope, fidelity, liberality, kindness, rest (leaving this out is like leaving the oil out of the salad dressing— don’t do it), prayer, meditation, and one well-selected resolution. Put in about one teaspoonful of good spirits, a dash of fun, a pinch of folly, a sprinkling of play, and a heaping cupful of good humor.

Amen to that. Although it seems hard to follow all those gems of thought...  

On New Year's eve, I noted that the previous night, December 30, I did not hear firecrackers in our area in Makati. I took it as a good sign that many Filipinos have abandoned the idea of spending their money on costly, noisy and sometimes dangerous firecrackers.


I was wrong. By December 31, starting around 10:30pm, various loud blasts could be heard, getting louder and more frequent as 12am was approaching. My wife stayed inside the house, in bed with our two young girls, while I got out of the house before 12 midnight, I saw many people on the street, a few  were lighting various firecrackers while most were just looking on and cheering.

On the right, that's the "sinturon ni Judas" or Judas' belt, a long line of firecrackers attached to each other. Once lighted on one end, there will be hundreds of explosions one after the other, really loud, one has to stay at a distance. And see the remains after those long belts have exploded.  Photos not from my camera, got them from the web.

Some of the victims of those firecracker explosions on their hands, previous years. Photos from the web.

A friend called that firecracker addiction as "national insanity". Well, not exactly, more of personal insanity. I notice that less and less people are buying and exploding those firecrackers, they would rather look up the sky and watch various colorful fireworks on display at various parts of Metro Manila. Thanks to some rich individuals and corporations who spend big time for those elaborate and expensive fireworks, they entertain thousands of people.

Late last year, I attended three different parties/events in two weeks and they all have live band performers.



I like jamming with good and friendly bands. Just sing one or two songs and that's it. Usually I'm the first to do it, then other people in the audience later come up the stage and sing with the band too.

Hoping that 2013 will be better than 2012. Career wise, economically and financially, good health to my family and friends.

Cheers.

Monday, December 31, 2012

Christmas Notes 8: The 12 Days of Christmas

During the Christmas Party of the DLSU Political Science Department faculty members and staff middle oif this month, I sang this during the Karaoke and singing session. My wife teaches at the department. Many if not all faculty members there are pro-RH bill, now a law, so note the 5th day -- satire for me, not a praise :-)


The 12 Days of Christmas

On the __ day of Christmas government said to me:

1st -- More taxes to pay public debt.
2nd -- More borrowings, and 
3rd -- P2 trillion budget...

(So the last part of the song would look like this)

12th -- Fight climate change
11th -- More Congress districts
10th -- Cyber crime law
9th -- More sin taxes
8th -- K-12 for students
7th -- Philhealth for the poor
6th -- CCT the poor
5th -- Viva RH bill
4th -- Condoms for the poor
3rd -- P2 trillion budget
2nd -- More borrowings, and 
1st -- More taxes to pay public debtr
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I attended only a few Christmas parties this year, something like six: with Gina L, Ozone A, other friends; the UPSE alumni reunion party,  my sister's auditing firm, DLSU Pol Sci., my rotary club, and my own family on the 24th evening. 

It's good that it has been rather cloudy if not wet on many days of the month.  

Preparing for the new year. Hope it will be better than this year.
Cheers.
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