Showing posts with label OFWs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label OFWs. Show all posts

Saturday, March 26, 2016

Photos during the lecture on Cheap Oil, DLSU

Last March 01, 2016, I gave a lecture on Cheap oil and the OFWs at some classes at De La Salle University (DLSU) Manila main campus. Here are some photos that afternoon.


Some 3 classes combined to attend this talk. Thanks to their teachers/professors, Gina, Grace and my wife Ella.

 

My lecture was divided into 2 parts. Part 1 about cheap oil and gas, Part 2 about employment and OFWs data, and some fiscal data for Saudi Arabia, the main destination of many OFWs in the Middle East.


Open forum. 

Certificate of appreciation. Thanks Chloe.


Meanwhile, world oil prices want to  reach and stay at the $40 level, but over-supply and under-demand concerns put some brakes to this seemingly slippery target.


Saturday, February 06, 2016

BWorld 41, OFWs, cheap oil and the TPP

* This is my article in BusinessWorld last February 04, 2016.


Labor mobility and migration across countries and continents is a result of push and pull factors in both the labor exporting and labor importing or receiving countries. Labor-surplus countries generally have lower wages and labor skills due to limited employment opportunities while labor-deficit countries generally have higher wages and skills training.

If labor migration is heavily restricted via multiple regulations and permits, taxes and mandatory contributions -- if not prohibited outright -- the wage gap and income inequality between the labor-surplus and labor-deficit countries will worsen.

If labor migration is less restricted, then the wage gap and income inequality between the two group of countries will narrow or lessen. And if such migration is fully allowed and assured, then global wages per industry and sub-industry, wages per skills levels -- other things being equal or held constant -- will move towards equilibrium or near-equality.

Remittances of nationals who are working abroad are among the biggest sources of revenues of both governments and households for many countries in the world today. The top five in remittance inflows worldwide are India, China, Philippines, Mexico, and France. (See Table 1)


In Southeast Asia, learning the trade of labor migration rather quickly aside from the Philippines are Vietnam and Indonesia. From 2004 to 2014 or in just one decade, Vietnam’s remittances have expanded 5.2 times while Indonesia’s have expanded 4.6 times over the same period. Impressive.

In South Asia, besides India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal are also learning the ropes as well. Nepal in particular is very dependent on remittances, which comprise nearly 30% of its GDP in 2014.

In Africa, Nigeria’s remittances have expanded nearly 10 times from 2004 to 2014 and Egypt’s have expanded nearly 6 times. In Europe, Ukraine’s remittances increase over the same period was the fastest in the world, expanded by almost 18 times.

The Philippines’ remittances expansion over the same period was no longer huge as the big jump was experienced in the 80s and 90s. There are differences in the figures by the World Bank (WB) and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

For instance, based on BSP data: 2014 remittances reached $24.35B (vs WB’s $28.4B).

For 2015, BSP’s forecast is $25.3B while WB’s forecast is $29.7B. The difference could be due to different accounting method used by the WB that applies to other countries in its global database.

It should be noted that the numbers are only for remittances that pass through the formal banking and remittance centers. They do not include money that are brought in personally by the migrant workers when they come home, or via relatives and close friends co-workers returning home.

Estimates of total remittances in the Philippines via formal financial channels + personal/informal channels range from $35 to $40 billion in 2015 alone.

The Center for Indonesian Policy Studies (CIPS), a new and independent, market-oriented think tank in Jakarta, is conducting a comparative study on labor migration by the Philippines and Indonesia, with the explicit goal of learning from the Philippine experience, especially in labor protection during and after deployment.

Based on latest available data from the World Bank, of the top 10 destinations for OFWs in 2013, four are in the Middle East, five in the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) bloc, and Italy. (See Table 2)

The current low oil prices and approval of the TPP Agreement will have initial and short-term negative impact on the deployment of OFWs for two reasons.

One, Saudi Arabia and other Middle East economies will demand less foreign workers because of their shrinking revenues from oil exports. And two, the Philippines will temporarily lose out to Vietnam and Malaysia in some services and labor mobility as they are TPP members and hence, will benefit from lower tariff and non-tariff barriers (NTBs) by the big TPP economies like the US, Canada, Japan and Australia.

There are several policy implications and reform measures for the Philippines.

One, reduce the number of permits, procedures, taxes, and fees for both manpower agencies and the prospective OFWs as the competition from upcoming labor exporting economies will become more intense. In this aspect, the Philippines should follow the lead of Vietnam, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Egypt.

The Philippine Overseas Employment Administration (POEA) can shorten the process for private manpower agencies which have good track records over the past 10 years or more.

Currently, the procedures and permits required of new recruitment agencies and those that are 10+ or 20+ years old are the same.

Two, the Philippines should pursue its application for TPP membership. Thailand and Indonesia are almost sure to apply for membership in the next round of membership expansion, they will reap the benefits of bigger market access, both goods and services, to the richer member-economies of TPP.

Three, reduce the business bureaucracies, taxes and fees in the Philippines so that more businesses, local and foreign, will come and stay here. Then more and new local higher-paying jobs will be created, and this will help absorb the workers and professionals from the Middle East who are sent home due to cheap oil.


Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the President of Minimal Government Thinkers, and a Fellow of the South East Asia Network for Development (SEANET). minimalgovernent@gmail.com
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See also:BWorld 15, OFWs, MERS-CoV and the DFA, August 08, 2015

MERS-CoV and OFWs, Part 3, September 04, 2014

Thursday, April 30, 2015

Labor Econ 16: Wages in Asia, Robots and OFWs

International Labor Day tomorow, various labor issues will be highlighted once again. In this chart from a Bloomberg article, China Is Set to Lose Manufacturing Crown, April 29, 2015, the cost of 
labor in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhu are twice than those in Cebu and Hanaoi; and 3-4x than those in Yangon and Pnom Penh.

The article noted that  "Manufacturers will be drawn to Southeast Asia's strengths, including the strategic location and cheap labor of Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos... By 2030, more than half of 650 million people in Southeast Asia will be under the age of 30, part of an emerging middle class with high rates of consumption...."

Another set of data, 2 1/2 years ago, from Arangkada Philippines.

I think these numbers represent only the monetary pay. The various mandatory social contributions like SSS + PhilHealth + PagIBIG to PH government corporations, plus HMOs, plus mandatory leaves with pay like paid holidays, are not included yet.

One problem with ever-rising mandatory and legislated minimum wage is that entrepreneurs have the option of hiring as few workers as possible, while giving high pay and  various perks to  those they have hired, to keep their productivity high, people who can do various tasks.

Another option is to use more machines and robots. Here are two news reports, the first from FT, February 10, 2015, and the second is from The Telegraph UK, February 03, 2015.


(1) FT: "Robots will replace a growing number of jobs in industries including automotive and electronics in the next few years, particularly in east Asia, according to new research.

The prices of industrial robots have been falling steadily, dropping about 14 per cent in the past four years to $133,000 for a typical system, while capabilities have been expanding.

Some robots are even cheaper: the Baxter robot from Rethink Robotics has a listed base price of $25,000, making it accessible to smaller companies that might have found it difficult to invest in earlier generations."

(2)  Telegraph"In a paradigm-shifting development, the hotel in question, the Henn-na Hotel, will be partially staffed by what are termed “actroid" androids – remarkably human-like robots who will be able to greet, carry luggage to rooms, make cups of coffee – and even smile....

Three of the uniformed actroids will serve as reception staff at the Henn-na Hotel, scheduled to open in July. Alongside them will be four service and porter robots, an industrial robot serving as a cloak room attendant and several robots whose primary task will be to clean."

On OFWs 

Related to Mary Jane Veloso's case in  Indonesia, some people blast the PH government's "labor export policy". There is such a policy? I am not aware of that policy.  If so, what law or RA, or Executive Order (EO) or Administrative Order (AO) is it?

Employment is a private contract between the employer and employee, whether the employer is a foreigner or local; whether the employment will be abroad or here. Thus, the decision  to work abroad, or study and live even temporarily abroad, is an individual and/or household decision.

And if people decide to  work abroad, it is important to  obey the rules and regulations of the new destination country. We may disagree with their laws, religious and cultural  practices, but we are guests there, we have to respect and obey their rules. Otherwise we should not entertain  the  idea of setting foot there in  the  first place.

Then some people blast that "employment contract" because it perpetuates inequality in society between the workers and businessmen, employees and employers. Well if people do not want to become employees -- whether by Filipino or foreign employers -- they should employ themselves, become start up entrepreneurs and job creators. It need not be a big or medium size company, it can be a micro project like food stall, or an internet shop, or become free lance writer and consultant, etc.
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See also:

Saturday, March 21, 2015

Foreign Aid 16: ADB on OFW Remittances

A news report last Wednesday, March 18, 2015. I think the ADB President, Takehiko Nakao, is wrong here. OFW remittances are private funds, 100% of it, not PH government or ADB fund. Why would he suggest that remittances "be intermediated for public investments such as infrastructure"? 

Remittances by Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs), some $25 B last year, are several times larger, and sevveral times more useful, than foreign aid money, WB + ADB + USAID, etc. combined. Foreign aid is government to government. That is why foreign aid is often tainted with corruption and wastes. Remittances, like trade, is people to people, direct. Thus, its use is more prudent, less wasteful, more productive.

When an OFW sends money to repair their old house, or build a new, bigger house, it is "for development" as it creates lots of jobs at the grassroots, at the barangay and municipal levels. Construction workers, hardwares, furniture shops, local foremen and architects, etc. Money is received and used/consumed by the people, direct. No middlemen like bureaucracies that appropriate, disburse, monitor the money.
  
Five economist friends made good comments and reactions.

1. Jun: the very tight (BSP) regulations on banks like adopting of basel 3, stringnet KYC, AMLA, FATCA rules which appear to be motivated by protectionism that our OFWs end up remitting through undercapitalized couriers, Pawnshops and other similar entities instead of safe, well capitalized and more efficient financial institutions in the private sector. Relatives of OFs claim their money from couriers located in malls end as (mall) spending (instead of saving).

2. Joey: It depends Noy on what is "intermediated" re private funds. If it is designed like PPP where remittances are invested voluntarily, then it is still a private decision and a private fund. The process and outcome how this will come out is debatable. I'm just referring to remittance as private funds.

3. Patrick: A few bitcoin companies are realizing the PH remittance market and started to offer bitcoin remittance. Check rebit.ph, rebittance.ph and coins.ph. Completely bypasses BSP. coins.ph offers bitcoin conversion into cash via ATMs.

4. Adora: hold your horses, Noy. re-read the article. no mention of OFW remittances being treated as public funds. these will remain private. intermediation is to be done through financial inclusion (i.e., developing investment products where OFWs could invest on). it had been tried in the past through diaspora bonds but not many OFWs were able to invest (i.e., not financially inclusive enough) due to low financial literacy, among others.

5. Teresa: Noy, if the remittances are deposited in the financial system, then they can very well be intermediated. Ikaw naman - Econ 121 yan. Money and Banking.

I thanked them all for their good points. My rejoinders:

(1) It is a valid observation by Jun. More banking and financial regulations by the government (BSP in this case) make the regulated players to pass the cost of additional bureaucracy to the public -- in the form of more papers to fill up, higher bank charges. The less regulated but undercapitalized players like money couriers can act guerilla type and have many outlets, like public markets and malls. So many OFWs send their money to these couriers (LBC, Cebuana, Palawan, Western Union, etc.). The temptation for instant spending is higher if one is inside malls or public markets. And even if we assume that it is a "non-productive" spending, to eat and buy at malls, it is still the households who benefit. It may just be a once a month treat at Jollibee or McDo.

(2) On "Spending these "expended" dollars in consumables will be inflationary, but spending in development infra maybe not." may not be true. During barrio or city fiesta for instance, local and micro entrepreneurs anticipate high consumption of pork, chicken, cattle, etc. so they produce these farm products with target harvest period on those 2 or 3-days of fiesta. High household spending fueled by OFW remittances do not create permanent inflationary pressure because local supply of consumables also rise. High supply meets high demand, the price remains at its old equilibrium point.

(3) It is another proof that as government regulates more, the cost of regulations and bureaucracies are ultimately passed to the public. So other players sprout to evade regulations while offering more ease, less cost to the public.

(4) and (5) There is something wrong if ADB chief thinks that current spending by OFWs and their families are not "for development" and that "remittances should be channeled to funds that would contribute to economic development".

a. Most spending by OFWs currently are "for development" already. Like having a new, bigger house, buying a new agri or residential land, or a new tricycle or jeepney, or sending kids to more prestigious schools.

b. Most of OFW remittances are channeled to the formal banking system already. "Cash remittances Filipinos coursed through banks grew to $1.814 billion in January from $1.804 billion a year earlier."

So what is that something new that the ADB head suggests, at least from that news report? It seems nothing. Now if he suggested that PH income taxes should drastically be cut from 32 percent down to 22 or 12 percent, that is really new. Many Filipino professionals leave partly because their take home pay here is small, only 68 percent is left and from that, various consumption-based taxes and fees are further collected -- VAT, excise tax, property tax, vehicle registration tax, etc.

So Mr. Nakao is barking at the wrong tree. If the goal is "more development" for the country and OFWs and their families here, the bigger problem is not with remittances and how they are sent or spent here. The bigger problem are PH government policies, which are partly supported by foreign aid like ADB, like high personal and corporate income taxes, multiple business taxes and permits, from national down to local governments.
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See also: 

Thursday, September 04, 2014

MERS-CoV and OFWs, Part 3

Four months after she died in Riyadh, my sister in law, a former nurse in a Saudi government hospital, is finally home in our province in Negros Occ. Welcome home, Gemma. Lois, their only child, 13 yo, with her in this photo which I took from Gemma's fb wall.

She should have been brought home last August 17 via Cathay Pacific (Riyadh-HK-Manila). But about one or two days before she would be transported, Cathay demanded a new requirement before they would transport Gemma. First they demanded an "import permit" from Manila. When I wrote to  them  what  is that “import permit” and what agency in Manila it should come from, they corrected it to "embalmer's certificate" from Saudi, etc. My brother wrote to the travel agency arranged by the Saudi hospital, to look for another airline that would not be too bureaucratic.
So the travel agency arranged for a new airline. Saudia Air took her from Riyadh to Manila direct, arrived mid-day today, then PAL for Manila-Bacolod. The plane landed in Silay-Bacolod airport before 6pm, the body was brought to Rolling Hills funeral park in Bacolod, short mass, then she was buried. Now she is back in  the  province where  she was born  and  grew up.

Her arrival  at Manila  airport today was reported in TV Patrol of ABS-CBN, and was reported online.

Report from Atom Araullo, ABS-CBNnews.com
Posted at 09/04/2014 2:51 PM | Updated as of 09/04/2014 2:51 PM

MANILA – The remains of a Filipina nurse who died from the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome-Corona Virus in Saudi Arabia arrived in Manila on Thursday morning.

The body of Gemma Barrilea Oplas arrived at the cargo section of Ninoy Aquino International Airport Terminal 1 past 10 a.m. It was immediately brought to Bacolod….

Special thanks again to the DFA. Riyadh PH Embassy coordinated with Saudi MOH and the hospital to finally bring her back.

Problem 1, bringing home the remains, is solved.
Problem 2, sending the benefits that the hospital would give to Gemma's family (her siblings included, based on Saudi laws and culture). This will take several weeks more...

I checked the ABS-CBN facebook page for this report, there were many comments. Mostly positive and notes of condolence, but there are some idiots who wrote negatively about Gemma, or about health OFWs in Saudi in general. Ignoring the idiots, here are some comments, mainly from Gemma’s friends:

Jan Jefri: FYI po, colleague ko po ung nsa news.. she died here in Riyadh kaso need to keep for 2-3 months freezed para macontain ung virus.. SOP po yan ng Ministry of Health dto s KSA. Pinoy nurses are highly competitive when it comes to giving nursing care to patients regardless of the disease that a patient have. Direct contact na kulang nlng mahalikan at mayakap ang mga pasyente. We took care our patients as our own family.. Yan ang risk sa profession na pinile nmin.. All we need is your prayers to all nurses all over the world.

Ang work po nmin as nurse dto is from the dirtiest to clean work..meaning all in one po.. package ika nga!!! At dyan competent mga pinoy nurses.. a million salute to you Ate Gemma, may your soul rest in peace. Youre a HERO!!!

..and another thing, if you're working as ER nurse in any facility hndi mo alam kung anong meron ang bawat pasyente na pumapasok sa unit..Likewise, madaming ntatamaan ng MERScOV na asymptomatic pero positive pala s test.. so hindi mo rin tlaga masabi.. need tlga to boost immunity para sa mga virus na yan and effective handwashing.. especially now that ebola is around. MERS and EBOLA will go hand and hand!!! Fight fight fight fellow nurses!!!

Oo nga, instead na magsalita ng hndi maganda..better to pray for everyone..wala nman may gusto na madapuhan ng deadly virus na yan..

Rest in peace ate gemma.. ur memories will remain in our hearts.. a million salute to you!!!

Richel Amante Tayros: Rest in peace Gemma kapitbahay ko yan.at yung mga bad comments ng iba na kung ano anung speculation pwede kung wala kayong alam hwag na lng magsalita ng masama.hindi nyo kilala yung tao pra husgahan.

Yoj Arnaldo: Sa mga may negative comment jan, gemma took care of her colleague na may mers.nahawa sya and namatay ahead.d pa nga alam ng nkahawa sa kanya na patay na sya.gemma is a friend of my friend.imbes magcomment ng pangit,kesyo ganito o ganyan, why cant u just pray for her soul...

Danilyn Pinote: tama na,hwg naman kau masyado putak ng putak.saludo ako sa kanya. nagbuwis sya ng buhay nya para sa ibang tao.ginampanan lang nya ang trabaho nya. condolence po

Roxane Septimo Romias: She a Person withbeautiful heart kahit nung nakalatay sya pneumonia pa lang findings in ask pa nxa ako i doble check ung namatay ng mers cove kasi kaibigan nya meron

Myrz Flores: Totoo na mers cov yun..nag alalaga siya ng kaibigan na may mers then siya pa yung namtay..yung inalagaan niya buhay at stabke na sa ngaun.kakalungkot naman talaga at ngaun lang siya nakauwi.

Ross-ana Hulleza Toroy: I would like to express my sincere condolence to the family of my friend gemma oplas.rest in peace my dear friend.
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See also:
MERS CoV and OFWs  May 08, 2014
MERS-CoV and OFWs, Part 2, August 26, 2014

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

MERS-CoV and OFWs, Part 2

As I posted On MERS CoV and OFWs last May 08, 2014, my sister in law, Gemma B. Oplas, died last May 6, 2014 of the disease. She was an ER nurse at King Fahad Medical City (KFMC) in Riyadh, the biggest Saudi government hospital in that city. She was attending to a MERS patient, and within days, she herself was infected. Death was fast, only 6 1/2 days after she was confined.

It is now 3 months and 3 weeks since she died and her body is not flown home yet, it is still in a freezer in Riyadh. That is one of the hard travails of OFWs who died of infectious diseases abroad.

I am not aware of the science of containing viruses, but refrigeration for more than 3 months is supposed to be enough to kill any virus in the body. If cremation is only allowed in Saudi Arabia, but it's not.

Two weeks ago, KFMC and the Saudi government have decided to send home Gemma's body via Cathay Pacific cargo (Riyadh-HK-Manila) and Gemma was supposed to arrive in Manila last August 17, Sunday afternoon.

But a belated correspondence from Cathay Pacific the day before said that HK government and Cathay would require an "import permit" from my brother (in Negros Occ.) before the airline will transport the remains.

Import permit for the dead???? Cathay said this permit should come from the DOH, that it is safe to bring home the body of a deceased person who died of that infectious disease. It's weird. I asked my friend, DFA ASec Eddie about it and it is also his first time to hear a case of requiring an import permit for the dead.

People have high stigma against this disease. Like (1) the managers of the funeral park in Cadiz City, Neg. Occ. who adviced that Gemma be cremated in Bacolod instead of being buried in Cadiz (64 kms. north of Bacolod), (2) DOH Bacolod which will not allow opening the casket and wants the body to be buried quick, (3) various airlines including Cathay, and (4) the HK government.

I went to DOH Bureau of Quarantine (BoQ) last week, August 20. I was able to talk to its Director, Dr. Mavic Vasquez. She said it is not their duty or responsibility to give a permit for incoming deceased people. They can give for outgoing ones. She thought that it should be DFA Riyadh, with Saudi Ministry of Health (MOH), that should issue such permit. A dead person here (Filipino or foreigner) that must be transported abroad for burial or autopsy or whatever purpose, the BoQ issues the permit to transport.

I called up again the DFA Office of the UnderSecretary for Migrant Workers Affairs (OUMWA). The person I spoke there wanted to call Cathay Pacific as DFA guys themselves are surprised with this new requirement. He called the Riyadh Philippine Embassy (PE) instead to inquire what the problems are. He was informed that there may be some problem with the Saudi MOH, but the PE is doing something to hasten the repatriation of Gemma's body.

Last week, I wrote to a Cathay officer and asked what exactly is the "import permit" that they require and from what agency or Department it should come from. They replied,

"...If not cremated, death Certificate + Undertakers Certificate. If death caused by communicable disease, admittance allowed only when the remains is cremated or properly embalmed and enclosed in hermetically sealed coffin."

So their earlier requirement of an "import permit" was irrelevant as the HK government wants an Undertaker's Certificate + proper enclosure in a sealed coffin. 

In one yahoo report  last May 26, 2014, the Saudi government expressed high alarm, even desperation, in attracting health professionals who will risk their lives attending to MERS patients.

Gemma's death benefit package from the hospital is not released until now. There are some bureaucracies in the Saudi government and my brother is asking the assistance of the Riyadh PE.

All the papers for OWWA benefits, SSS, etc. cannot start unless there is a death certificate or at least Report of Death from DFA Riyadh embassy. The Report must come with the body, so the longer that the body is not repatriated, the longer will be the non-processing of said papers.

There must have been several OFW health workers who died of MERS-CoV in Saudi alone this year. Some must be there until now. It is really hard for the immediate family, like my younger brother and their only child, 13 yo Lois. to endure these uncertainties. Lots of stigma attached to this disease, but it is not the victims's fault. Gemma died in the course of her work, she was an ER nurse there. I think media alarmism and sensationalism has fanned this public stigma.

Next problem would be OFWs who died of ebola, if any, in Africa. The same public stigma, or even worse, would be attached to the victims. One reason why many Filipino relatives and family members of OFWs who died of MERS are silent. They seldom, if any, admit publicly that their kin died of that disease.

I think there are other weird stories in bringing home OFWs who died of infectious diseases, but since many of the kins here are not too open to reveal it publicly, the stories are kept in the dark. I don't think they should be ashamed to admit that their kin died of an infectious disease, especially while performing their profession. If their kin stole abroad and was shot and killed, then there is a reason to be ashamed.

Monday, August 25, 2014

Philippine Construction Boom

I shared this story from Quartz (posted August 21, 2014) in my facebook wall a few days ago with a note, "Magagalit ang mga anti-government groups dito. They will not believe this news." Today it has 23 shares, wow.  This means that many people like to hear positive news too, not just the negatives.

The article showed these 3 charts.


And one more chart.


 SM North Edsa in Quezon City is the 3rd biggest mall in the world I think. This SM Seaside Mall in Cebu will be the 4th largest, to be opened next year. A friend who saw it says it is "massive". From the other photos I saw, there are at least seven cranes working simultaneously. 

Photos below I got from the Philippine Construction Boom facebook page.


Hundreds of construction workers now have jobs. Once it's done, thousands of sales people, small and medium entrepreneurs (some jobs outsourced with micro entreps), delivery people, etc. will have continuing jobs.

Sprawling urbanization.


changing skyline of makati. The Circuit. Former Sta. Ana racetrack.


NAIA terminal 3 and Makati skyline.


It seems CDO and Davao cities in Mindanao are business-friendly and attracting good investments too.


The Iloilo Convention Center is projected to be finished by March next year. The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit next year will be held there.


From Bloomberg,

The old airport, replaced by a new one in 2007, is a construction site, where developer Megaworld Corp. is building a 35 billion-peso ($800 million) business park with a Marriott hotel and condos sporting names like One Madison Place and Lafayette Park Square.

A mile down the road, the planned hospital, shops, hotel and homes of Ayala Land Inc.’s Atria Park District may create 10,000 jobs on former salt pans. For Ilonggos and Ilonggas, as the city’s residents are known, the growth brings new opportunities.

My clubmate in Rotary, Norlan, has a medium size construction business. He once told me that they are sometimes losing their workers to the big construction firms. Naiipit nga daw sila, some of their workers will resign and go to the big firms with bigger salary. So they are obliged to pay bigger pay too

From Manila Standard, QC to host half km-high tower, June 27, 2014. 612 meters high, 200 floors, to rise in QC, wow.

Eto rin, sikat sa makati, hehe.


Anyway, the photos above are not meant to glorify the state or PH government. Rather to show that despite various adversities like heavy business bureaucratism, the local private sector along with their foreign parners, local  workers and SMEs, are simply too optimistic and hopeful about the country. Thus, those huge business initiatives.

Thursday, May 08, 2014

On MERS CoV and OFWs

This is my sister in law, Gemma Barilea-Oplas, holding my elder daughter Elle Marie, and beside her lone child, Lois, sometime in late 2010 in our province in Neg. Occ. Elle is now 7+ years old while Lois is 13 years old. Gemma is an OFW, a nurse in King Fahd Medical City (KFMC) in Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) for more than a decade. It's a big Saudi government hospital. 


Gemma died the other day. It was a fast death. Confined in the same hospital where she was working last Wednesday night (KSA time), she was able to call my younger brother, Bobong, to inform him of her situation. A tube was put in her mouth by Thursday, she accepted Bobong's call, their last conversation.  ICU by Friday, renal failure and plummeting BP by Monday, dead by Tuesday, this week.

Bobong and Lois stay in Cadiz City, Negros Occidental, my hometown. He wanted to fly to Saudi, he went to Bacolod City last Monday for his passport application, was told that his passport will be released May 26. Too long, he contacted me, so I contacted a good friend way back in UP Diliman in the 80s, now DFA Assistant. Secretary Eddie de Vega for help. DFA responded with speed and efficiency, I am very thankful of them. But bad luck has taken over.

Yesterday, I got my brother's passport at DFA even though he will not fly to Saudi anymore. DFA Asst. Sec. Fred Santos personally attended to me. Thanks again ASec.

Gemma's death is suspected to be caused by the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome - Corona Virus (MERS-CoV): ASec Santos brought me to DFA Under Secretary Jesus Yabes' office, to ask how the DFA can help bring back the body. PH embassy in Riyadh has no knowledge about her death. The hospital has imposed a news bllack out about her case, and most likely similar cases involving their sick staff. ASec Eddie and I are of course disappointed. How can the PH government, DFA in particular, deal with this, how grave is the problem, if some Saudi government hospitals have this poicy?

Maybe the hospital wants to further study the body whether it is indeed MERS-Cov or any other disease which caused the death. But they should have informed the PH embassy.  The news black out policy by the Saudi government hospital, even if done temporarily, strengthens suspicion that the MERS CoV problem there could be worse that what the Saudi government would reveal to media and the public. Similar to China government's news sanitation policy when SARS spread there and killed several people. The actual death toll was higher than what was reported.

A lawyer friend working at the DOJ, Jojo, commented,
That is a problem Noy. But this Merscov is taking its toll on our OFW health workers in Saudi. The government should act with the same urgency as it did when it published the names of a plane load of OFWs and asked them to come in for tests. By now the Philippine Embassy in Riyadh should already have an action plan on how to respond to our OFWs who fall to the Merscov. Maalarma na sila para sa mga kababayan natin na na-expose na sa Saudi, hindi lang sa pag naglanding na sila dito sa Pinas at madadamay tayo at saka pa lamang aaksyon ng lubos. The highest diplomatic measures should already be undertaken as we speak to protect our OFWs in Saudi from the Merscov.

Jojo is right. My brother asked for a copy of Gemma's medical abstract through her close friend, also a Pinay nurse in the same hospiital. I hope they can give the abstract. It is not official yet if it was MERS CoV or other disease that killed Gemma. But when she was confined last Wed, all the symptoms of the disease were with her.

I discovered last night that the Inquirer has reported it the other day.


 A related news from interaksyon last week. 

"Public concern over the spread of MERS mounted earlier this month after the resignation of at least four doctors at Jeddah's King Fahd Hospital who refused to treat patients for fear of infection...."

I think the PH Embassy in Riyadh will contact KFMC to get the official report, even if the latter will insist on its news blackout policy, implicit or explicit. 

I do not know if the hospital will take it against my brother that I write this story as this may put them in a bad light somehow. But it is for the benefit of both KSA and PH governments and the public in general in both countries, if there is more transparency how grave or non-grave the situation of MERS incidence is in KSA.

To Gemma's siblings, parents, relatives and friends, in Cadiz and elsewhere, this is a sad reality that we have to accept, including the delayed repatriation of her body back home. 

Thanks to many friends who expressed sympathy when I posted this note in my fb account last night, 
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See also:
Drug Innovation 9: Treating Lympho Leukemia and HIV/AIDS, January 10, 2013 
Drug Innovation 10: Cancer, H7N9 and Government, April 26, 2013 

Drug Innovation 12: H7N9, SARS, Bird Flu and Vaccines, May 14, 2013

Drug Innovation 13: Why Expensive Cancer Drugs Are Cost-Saving After All, June 10, 2013

Wednesday, October 09, 2013

Migration 20: Overseas Employment, Positives Outweigh the Negatives?

Overseas employment, do the positives outweigh the negatives?

A friend asked that question in facebook and my quick answer is Yes. The positives outweigh the negatives. Overseas employment is a voluntary and private contract between the foreign employers and Filipino employees. People have the option to stay home and look for jobs here, but they opted to go outside because the perceived benefits are larger than the costs. If our constitution, economic and bureaucratic policies are friendly to foreign investments and entrepreneurship in general, many of those foreign employers would have been here, employing Filipinos in the Philippines, not abroad, and subjected to Philippine laws. 

The World Bank released its Migration and Development Brief 21 dated October 02, 2013, a 29-pages long paper. I am posting some figures from that paper here.


Going back to Econ 11 (elementary econ) or Econ 102 (micro econ), when some workers leave and work abroad, the domestic labor supply curve shifts to the left and if domestic labor demand remains the same, that raises the equilibrium wage rate, say from P300 to P350. The local job seekers will have fewer competition from other Filipino job seekers as they go abroad. It should be considered as a plus to society.

Then many of those OFWs are not exactly a "brain drain". After their contract ends, or renewed contract ends, many of them come back, often not as ordinary workers but as micro or small entrepreneurs  having their own jeepney or taxi or sari sari store, or rice thresher machine in the barrios. They then create local jobs aside from hiring themselves. There are many other plus for people who work abroad. If we have to demonize anything or anyone, it is the protectionist Constitution, the tax-hungry government and the various business bureaucracies. Those foreigners abroad may consider put up their company here and hire Filipinos here but they don't, so Filipinos seek work abroad.


 Does going abroad raise unemployment? No. If the labor demand curve stays at the same level while labor supply curve shifts to the left, there is no corresponding rise in unemployment while equilibrium wage rises. It is when labor demand curve also shifts leftwards (say due to endless government business bureaucracies, local and national, some entrepreneurs are closing or at least not expanding while population rises) that unemployment can increase and the equilibrium wage decreases.

If many Filipinos cannot accumulate enough savings to become start up entrepreneurs someday if they will remain working here, and working abroad can provide that opportunity, then they will work abroad. It's a plus thing.

In the factor price equilibrium (FPE) theorem, when factors of production (capital, labor, technology) are freely mobile worldwide, over the long term, factor prices (interest rates, wages, tech costs and patent, etc.) will tend to equalize. Not worldwide immediately, but at least over a region.

A friend noted that there is "7 percent unemployment and roughly 21 percent underemployment happening side-by-side with growth in OFWs and their remittances over the years, and almost 30 percent poverty rate."

Precisely that the job creation capacity of the local economy is limited, that overseas employment helps reduce more unemployment and underemployment here. Many countries abroad are labor deficient, they need migrant workers like Filipinos. Labor demand meets labor supply in a voluntary contract, and that is how the OFWs phenomenon continues, not because of any government policy to promote or discourage it. The role of the government via POEA, OWWA other agencies, is mainly to collect more fees from Filipinos before they fly out. so be it.


A friend says he has high respect for the officials of the 3 institutions I mentioned above. No problem with that, but leadership and institutions are two different things. You put angels to a government office that says, "You cannot start a barber shop, you cannot cut anyone's hair unless you produce these documents and permits 1... 20. No bribes or shortcuts will be allowed whatsoever." And that's one way to transform angels into devils.
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See also:
Migration and Freedom 14: Shrink or Abolish the POEA, January 01, 2012
Migration and Freedom 15: Visa Free for Filipinos, January 02, 2012
Migration and Freedom 16: Mobility and the Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem, February 03, 2012
Migration and Freedom 17: US Taxing Nationals Abroad, May 16, 2012
Migration and Freedom 18: Getting a Philippine Passport, July 18, 2012 

Migration and Freedom 19: PH Immigration Bureaucracy, September 08, 2012

Wednesday, January 02, 2013

Fat-Free Econ 35: World's 25 Largest Economies in 2012

This is my article in TV5's news portal last December 31,
http://www.interaksyon.com/business/51641/fat-free-economics--philippine-economic-prospects-viewed-against-global-growth-scene
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Diversity and spontaneity are important characteristics of the human mind if unhindered in pursuing individual talent and creativity. The more restrictions and limitations imposed on people, the less creative and innovative they can be.

This is the case of many developed economies as welfare populism has tied their entrepreneurial creativity and public finance, resulting in slow growth, and even economic contraction in some European economies like the so-called PIGS – Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain.

With modern technology, political restrictions and bureaucratic bottlenecks are somehow circumvented, allowing politically suppressed economies to grow fast. This is the case of the BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and to a certain extent, Indonesia.

Below is a quick rundown of GDP size and growth of the major global economies. We used the purchasing power parity (PPP) valuation of GDP as it reduces or eliminates hyper valuation of goods and services in many developed economies and put their values at par with those in developing economies.

There are some interesting facts in the table.

One, three Asian countries make it to the top four largest economies in the world.

Two, if growth rates over the past six years, 2006-2011, are maintained, China’s GDP will likely overtake that of the US in about five years or so, at least in PPP valuation.

Three, India has overtaken Japan this year. On a per capita GDP basis, the gap between the two is huge of course, like the gap between China and the US.

Four, at current growth rates, South Korea will land in the top 10 largest economies in less than five years, over-taking Mexico and Italy.

Five, Taiwan’s economy will touch the one trillion dollar mark in about three years if similar growth is sustained, joining the five other Asian economies including Indonesia.

Six, if the Philippines will maintain a 5 percent average growth rate over the next few years, its GDP size will reach the half-trillion dollar mark in about four years or by 2016.


 
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook (WEO) database, October 2012.

There are several positive things going for the Philippines to grow five percent or higher, including the following:

Sustained OFW remittances growing at nearly $2 billion a year: $20.74 billion in 2010, $22.35 billion in 2011, and projected to reach $24-plus billion in 2012. More skilled labor is going abroad, like those in shipping, healthcare, management and telecoms.

The BPO industry at nearly $11 billion in 2011 and projected to reach $25 billion in 2016. So far this is the most dynamic sector as labor rigidities in the developed economies are not expected to be relaxed soon.

Renewed interest in the local stock market, among the best performing in the world in 2011 and 2012. This year, it was up by nearly 33 percent over 2011.

Tourism is also showing a huge potential as the successful peace negotiations with the MILF in Mindanao and the open skies policy provides access to more resorts across the country.

While things can be gloomy in other economies in the world, it is more optimistic in many emerging economies like the Philippines. Governments do not have to “bend backwards” and offer various fiscal incentives. They just need to promulgate the rule of law, to guarantee that contracts are respected, honored and enforced, and violators are punished accordingly.

The stability of contracts and predictability of policies, plus keeping away from the welfare populism and politics of envy that has trapped many developed countries, are important ingredients for stable and sustainable growth.

Human imagination and innovation is without limit. It is an endless, unfathomable resource.  This ensures that economic and social growth can be sustained, especially now that we have seen the social trappings of welfare populism, labor and government rigidities.
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See also:
Fat-Free Econ 31: On the Kasambahay, Solo Parents Welfare Bills, November 26, 2012