Election 24, Generally peaceful and credible 2016 polls

Congratulations, COMELEC, for a generally peaceful, credible, and fast results elections 2016.

Congratulations, unofficial President-Elect Rodrigo Duterte. The people have spoken, you got nearly 40% of the national votes based on the SWS exit poll.

Bongbong Marcos is leading by 0.12 million votes as of this writing, no congrats yet. I still hope that my candidate Leni Robredo will beat you in the coming hours or days of official counting.

As of 1:20 am:

Reflecting on  this general elections, I think there are more good news than bad ones. Consider the following good news:

1. VP Jojo Binay finally loses in an election. He and his family were the alternating Mayors of Makati City (he, his wife, he again, then his son) for almost 30 years, then he won the VP race in 2010.

2. Securing the people's right to life (against murderers, rapists, kidnappers), right  to private property (against thieves, land grabbers) has trumped the politics of welfarism and rabid environmentalism. Duterte's single issue on fighting criminals proved to be more important to many voters than the promises of endless welfarism by the other Presidential candidates.

3. Among Senatorial candidates, populist lefties like Colmenares of Bayaan Mo Na and Walden Bello of Akbayan are losing. These two are rabid advocates of socialism, explicit or implicit. Risa Hontiveros finally made it after losing consecutively in 2010 and 2013 Senatorial elections. She's speaking mostly populist and socialist-leaning but her pronouncements are tempered by her direct association with the LP machinery which is definitely non-leftist.

The bad news, however:

1. Leni might lose?...

2. Manny Pacquiao will become Senator while Serge Osmena and TG Guingona are losing. Manny is a great man as a boxer and ring fighter. But later he has evolved into sort of a megalomaniac person, jumping into many activities outside of his core competence. Very good in boxing, but lousy as a professional basketball player, lousy singer, lousy Congressman. So he will soon be a lousy Senator? Sen. Serge has a good sense on energy policies, sayang kung matalo sya.

Nonetheless, the important thing is that the elections was held generally peacefully and orderly, it looks credible mainly because of fast turn out of electronic results.

We can move on. Work with the next President with a big mandate and support from the voters. Pero please lang, next President Duterte -- learn to respect the rule of law, let there be due process before penalizing criminals. Some may have stolen just a few chickens but short-cut investigations  and  penalties would say they stole cows and tractors and hence, the penalty is outright execution or "salvaging".

Learn to respect human rights. Kawatan man yan, may existing system of penalties na dyan, like X number of months or years of imprisonment, not outright execution and government-sponsored murders.

Lastly, President-Elect, while you said you were a fan of socialism and BIG government, at one time you also said you want a "minimal government." I hope you will lean more towards the latter and not the former. Thank you.

Update, as of 10:45 pm.

With 94.3% of national votes counted.
Graphics from gmanetwork.com, thanks.

Additional good news:

4. Grace Poe, Mar Roxas and Jojo Binay already conceded to Rody Duterte. He retains the 6+ M lead votes over Mar Roxas. VP candidates Chiz Escudero and Alan Cayetano also conceded defeat. Good move guys. No more hassle and complaints of irregularities or cheating. First time in Philippine elections that all major rivals have conceded defeat to a leading Presidential candidate less than 24 hours after the polls have closed.

5. Leni is winning, she has overtaken Bongbong by 0.25 M votes.

6. Soon we will not see the faces of "no car plate, no sticker available" DOTC Sec. Jun Abaya and MIAA Administrator Honrado, known for his so-called ignorance of "tanim bala" or "laglag bala" extortion racket at the NAIA. Among the "downers" of the PNoy government.

More bad news though...

3. Climate alarmism and renewables cronyism in the Senate will have additional voice through Migs Zubiri, strengthening Sen. Loren Legarda.

4. Francis Tolentino, currently #13, might edge out Leila de Lima now in #12... Tolentino is generally lousy as MMDA Chair, he used the position mainly for his Senatorial ambition and not to reduce high traffic congestion. Leila stood up against the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) Edsa occupation dictatorship last year. These INCs closed down a busy part of EDSA for 3N/2D (from Friday night to Sun afternoon).

Meanwhile, the PNoy bashers of "massive cheating to make Mar Roxas win  at all cost", learn to have humility and own up to your irresponsible statements. The same goes for COMELEC bashers. I hope to hear your apologies guys. Not to me of course, but to the Comelec and the admin.
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See also:

Election 21, Duterte and the Australian, US Ambassadors' comment on rape joke, April 22, 2016
Election 22, Is Du30 victory almost certain? May 07, 2016 

Election 23, Leni for VP, the Senatoriables, May 08, 2016

Pol. Ideology 66, On institutions, constitutional monarchy and liberal parliamentary democracy

Reposting another bright article from a friend, Wan Saiful, CEO of IDEAS in KL, Malaysia's first and only free market think tank. It is published today in The Star.
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Defend our institutions

By Wan Saiful Wan Jan

"Thinking Liberally", The Star, 10 May 2016

The existence and functioning of institutions are important for any democracy to flourish. The concept of ‘institutions’ is an important one to understand.

In the academic circle, the definition of institutions has been debated by many scholars. One of the most commonly cited opinion belongs to Douglass North, a Nobel Laureate who published a seminal paper in the early 1990s defining institutions as “the formal and informal rules that organise social, political and economic relations”.

Since then several other scholars have examined North’s work and provided further clarifications of the meaning of institutions. For example, Geoffrey Hodgson of the University of Hertfordshire builds on North’s definition by suggesting that institutions are “the systems of established and prevalent social rules that structure social interactions”.

Without going too much into the scholarly debates, it can be understood that when we talk about institutions, we are not necessarily just talking about physical entities. Instead we are referring rules and systems that may or may not be physical in nature.

For example, in a functioning democracy the institutions can include things like the constitution, the executive, parliament as the legislative body, a free press, independent judiciary, consistent application of the laws, presence of check and balance mechanisms, respect for fundamental liberties, and more.

The institutions can be an organisation, or it can be a concept. But regardless of its form, it structures how we deal with one another, how we deal with power, and how power deals with us.

When our country was formed, our founding fathers had the wisdom to choose a system that respects individual liberty. They chose liberal parliamentary democracy over illiberal autocracy.

A liberal parliamentary democracy is a system where the people can choose. In its simplest sense, democracy is rule by the people through elected representatives.

An illiberal autocracy is a system where people cannot choose. In its simplest sense, autocracy is dictatorship by one person or one group who holds a grip over the population.

Acknowledging that this nation has a history of autocracy in the form of absolute monarchies, when the Constitution was drafted, our Rulers had the wisdom to go for a constitutional monarchy. Our Rulers approved the vision of having a country founded upon the principles of liberty and justice, and their Royal Highnesses did not call for the return of rule by monarchs.

It is that wisdom that enabled us to gradually evolve into a modern society that we have today.

Britain has what is perhaps the most famous constitutional monarchy that exists today. It is amazing to see how the Queen functions in modern United Kingdom. She never make comments that can be construed as partisan in nature, yet she does not in any way contradict the elected government.

Throughout her reign the Queen has successfully adapted to the changing time, while always respecting the separation of roles between the monarch and the elected government.

More importantly, the British people too do not take steps that could destroy the separation of powers that is so important in a constitutional monarchy. They do not go to Buckingham Palace appealing for the Queen to intervene in matters that should be resolved in the parliamentary chambers.

They know that inviting the monarchy to intervene in day to day politics is not just a step back towards the medieval age, but it is also a dangerous slippery slope. Democracy might be messy when compared to the seemingly smooth autocracy. But once democracy is eroded, getting it back is not going to be easy.

They also know that if the British monarch does take side in a political bout, the country will be divided on how to react to the monarch’s partisanship and that may make the Queen lose the universal affection that she enjoys today.

This is why I am very worried about the calls made by some groups for our Rulers to intervene in our daily politics. Thankfully our Rulers are wise enough to not respond to these calls. Neither do they claim powers that can deny the right of our elected representatives to do their job. It is such wisdom, allowing the elected legislators to legislate as they are mandated, that will ensure the sustainability of the institution.

The institution of constitutional monarchy that we have today is precious. It helps keep the balance of power and prevents the executive from being overly powerful, while at the same time guaranteeing that we do not slip back into an autocratic absolute monarchy.

We must resolve political and legislative issues within the institutional frameworks of parliamentary democracy and constitutional monarchy. To ensure the respective institutions are defended, every one should honour the meaning of these concepts and keep to the drawn limits.

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See also:

Pol. Ideology 62, Marx and Hayek on Property Rights, May 19, 2015 

Pol. Ideology 63, Alternative Economic System, May 25, 2015 

Pol. Ideology 64, Big World Government or Smaller Countries and Governments? June 03, 2015 

Pol. Ideology 65, Liberals and liberty, positive and negative freedom, January 06, 2016

Winners and losers in the 2016 elections, by Dr. Jop Yap

A friend, Josef "Jop" Yap, former faculty member of the UP School of Economics (UPSE), then President of the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) and now back at UPSE, sent this to me. I like it, I asked for permission to post in this blog, he said Yes. So here it is.

Winners and Losers in the 2016 National Election

by  Dr. Josef “Jop” Yap

May 10, 2016, 1pm

Winner: Leni Robredo

The epitome of a reluctant candidate. The sincerity and candor she displayed during the campaign is refreshing and admirable. Her path to the 2022 Presidential elections has suddenly opened up.

Loser: Jojo Binay

He campaigned for the Presidency as soon as he upset Mar Roxas for the position of Vice-President. Personally, I am more relieved that we avoided such an obnoxious first family.

Winner: Mar Roxas

From the beginning his campaign was beleaguered by an image of non-winnability. This caused a division in the Aquino camp, with some openly supporting Grace Poe. His second place finish demonstrates that the Aquino camp should have put more faith and trust in Roxas.

Loser: Chiz Escudero

His ambition for the Presidency has been oozing from his body language. He convinced Grace Poe to run for President in order for her not to be a threat in 2022. At least we won’t have Heart as first lady.

Winner: Survey firms

The results of the election surveys reflected the actual outcomes fairly accurately. This has become a deterrent against massive cheating operations. Congratulations to Filipino statisticians!

Loser: Liberal Party Campaign Strategy

The last-minute attempt to unite the candidacies of Roxas and Poe was so pathetic. In particular, Mar Roxas looked so presumptuous and arrogant when he called on Grace Poe to meet with him to discuss the possibility of one of them dropping out.

Winner (TBD): Rodrigo Duterte

The candidate who came in from the cold. But it remains to be seen if he emerges a true winner. The Presidency may be way over his head. And with Robredo as VP, the threat of another people power “revolution” will always hound him.

Loser (TBD): Bong Bong Marcos

His strong run for VP shows that the Marcos mystique is still alive. Will Marcos’ loss derail his bid for the Presidency? Will there be Leni-BBM 2? Abangan.

Big Winner: The Filipino People

Voter turnout remains strong in national elections. Filipinos want their voices to be heard.

Big Loser: 1986 EDSA Coalition

For 30 years the Aquino-RAM-Church alliance held power behind the veneer of having instigated a revolution. The victory of Duterte and the strong showing of Bong Bong Marcos have wrecked this fantasy.

Biggest Loser: The Filipino People

When will we ever learn?

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I made this small matrix summarizing Jop’s arguments. Then my comments below.

Winners	Losers
1. Leni Robredo. Path to the 2022 Presidential elections opened up.	1. Jojo Binay. Relief that we avoided an obnoxious first family.
2. Mar Roxas. Aquino camp should have put more faith in him.	2. Chiz Escudero. Chance as President in 2022 is drained.
3. Survey firms. Surveys reflected actual outcomes accurately, a deterrent against major cheating.	3. LP Campaign. Attempt to unite Roxas - Poe was  pathetic, Mar looked presumptuous and arrogant.
4. Rodrigo Duterte. Came in from the cold, Presidency may be way over his head.	4. Bong Bong Marcos. Loss can derail his bid for Presidency. Or a Leni-BBM 2 in 2022?
5. Filipino People. Voter turnout strong, Filipinos want to have their voices heard.	5. 1986 EDSA Coalition. Duterte victory and strong showing of BBM  wrecked a fantasy.
	6. Filipino People. When will we ever learn?

Overall, good analysis by Jop. In particular, I agree with his list of winners, except #2. Mar Roxas simply lost. In elections, there are no silver medalists, it’s a winner take all situation. I will add that Jop failed to mention the COMELEC as a big winner here, public trust and respect for the institution is very high now for its conduct of peaceful, credible, and quick-results elections.

For Jop’s list of losers, I agree with all, except #6. The Filipino people overall is a winner here. Generally peaceful elections, except for a few isolated violence and murders. If we have to add a 6^th loser, it is the philosophy of welfarism as a paramount concern for Filipino voters. No, Duterte has shown that the paramount concern for many Filipinos is the fight against criminality, the protection of their lives and private property against murderers, thieves, rapists, drug pushers, etc.

Globalization and capitalist disruption

Many people who endlessly campaign for more labor protection, more capital regulations and restrictions, assume that big businesses will be there forever, that they have the "security of tenure" in business for the next 20, 50, 100+ years. So it is immoral for those big companies not to give their workers security of tenure in their work.

Some nice data on twitter here from Vala Afshar ‏@ValaAfshar. The numbers show  that the above assessment is wrong. Many companies, big and small, do not have such "security in business" for the next 10, 20, 50+ users. Some or many of these companies may be gone within a decade .

1995: Top 15 Internet companies worth $17 billion.

2015: Top 15 Internet companies worth $2.4 trillion.

Then 60% of top 12 S&P 500 companies in 2000 are not there in 2015; other 40% have dropped rankings.

The global digital: 2016 Billion $ companies that didn't exist in 2005

Uber, Airbnb

Twitter, Snapchat

Instagram, Fitbit

Spotify, Dropbox

WhatsApp, Slack

Tumblr, Pinterest

—3.4 billion access the Internet

—3.7 billion mobile users 📱

—2.3 billion on social media

And Google was the 21st search engine to enter the market in 1998.

Some "common" words we didn't use just 10 years ago:

1 social media

2 smartphone

3 tablet

4 app

5 selfie

6 youtube

7 GPS

8 twitter

9 uber

10 airbnb

More words of wisdom from Vala. I like this guy and his  ideas.

Very often, it is government-protected businesses (via franchising, guaranteed prices and subsidies, etc.) in developing countries that tend to stay "forever."

Lesson: globalization and capitalist innovation and competition do not provide forever "security" of business tenure. Governments do.

Election 23, Leni for VP, the Senatoriables

Only 2 main contenders for VP tomorrow. Leni Robredo ha.

For the Senators, sure winners but I will still vote for them: Pangilinan, Osmena, Drilon. These 7 candidates will fight for slots 9-12. Will vote for Gordon, de Lima, and Guingona.

Aside from sure defeat of Binay, the other consolation of this election is that lefties like Colmenares and Bello are losing. Last night, I passed by this street in Makati around 8pm. When I came back at midnight, this lefty's supporters showed their dictatorial instinct by making this white-painted wall become ugly. 

Shame Colme and ACT, or your supporters. Besides, more Filipinos are mature enough and not voting socialist- or commie-leaning politicians.

Another consideration when in doubt: Congress, the Senate especially should be independent as much as possible from the Executive branch. So in a likely event of a Du30 Presidency, the Senate should be LP majority. Also for the lower House, although many Congressmen tend to jump ship to the President's party.

From Gigo Alampay, nice advice.

"Kapit for Leni!

To all my friends who are still supporting Alan or Chiz, now's the time to make your decision - switch your vote to Leni because your vote for Alan or Chiz will only be helping the dictator's son!

P.S. Please disregard if you're going to switch to BBM. Don't switch na lang. :-)"

From Sureb Berus, another good advice.

"Ang boto para kay Leni Robredo ay boto laban kay Bongbong Marcos. #notobongbongmarcos

Sinasabi na ng latest Social Weather Stations survey na mas maliit ang posibilidad na manalo bilang vice president si Escudero, Cayetano, Honasan o Trillanes. Si Leni Robredo lang ang may laban kay Bongbong Marcos. Kung ibibigay po ninyo ang boto nyo for vice president kay Leni Robredo, malaki ang posibilidad na hindi na makabalik sa kapangyarihan ang mga Marcoses, na nagnakaw at nagpahirap sa bansa natin. Maliwanag na po ngayon na ang boto para kay Leni Robredo ay boto laban sa mga Marcoses. Kung kayo po ay naninindigan laban sa mga Marcoses, wag nyo po sayangin ang boto nyo please. Si Leni Robredo lang ang may pagasang manalo laban kay Bongbong Marcos. Kay Leni Robredo nyo na lang po ibigay ang boto nyo. Salamat."

So what is a free marketer doing in this election where no one among the major candidates is clearly free marketer or advocating minimal government? Simple. To help in defeating candidates and political parties that are outrightly for more populism and welfarism, socialism and murderous fascism, family plunder and rule of men.

In this case, Bongbong Marcos represents the party of family plunder, with billions of dollars of unreturned hidden wealth of his family to the PH treasury. After VP, he will then be eyeing the Presidency, and  it will be easier for him to capture it than if he is defeated and returns as a Senator.

For the Senatoriables, help candidates who may be welfarist (all of them, anyway) but have strong position on enforcing the rule of law.
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See also:

Election 20, Digong Duterte's rape "joke" of the Australian victim, April 18, 2016 

Election 21, Duterte and the Australian, US Ambassadors' comment on rape joke, April 22, 2016 
Election 22, Is Du30 victory almost certain? May 07, 2016

Energy 65, World Bank's anti-coal drama

The World Bank religiously follows the "save the planet" marching order of the UN. Let there be more expensive and unstable electricity in developing countries so long as no cheap and stable energy sources like coal are built. See these news reports.

The Guardian, July 2015,  The Guardian, May 2016,  The Nation Thailand.

The Economic Times 2015,  World Coal,  Myanmar Business.

From Climate Home. It added that "the world’s top lender to developing countries announced it would spend 28% of investments on climate-related projects by 2020."

Good move, WB. Then more Asian developing countries will boycott you as they need cheaper, stable electricity supply without need for subsidies and energy taxes. China's AIIB and private banks will be more than happy to lend to those governments or private firms in these countries to build more coal plants.

Dark streets and expensive electricity will kill more people today than "man-made" CC/warming 100 years from now. Dark streets mean more crimes,  more robbery and rapes and murders, more road accidents at night. And more fires as more poor people turn to candles.

The rich and big companies? They can buy huge and expensive gensets that run  on diesel, they want 24/7 electricity. 

Perhaps the WB and UN should conduct their regional and international meetings in countries which are energy-poor. Like Myanmar, Cambodia, India and Nepal. Then they will make  sure that they will stay in 5-star hotels there which have back up gensets that can ensure 24/7 electricity. They hate brown outs even for 1 minute but they don't care if those countries will  have frequent black outs because of  insufficient baseload power plants.

Energy rationing and central planning is wrong. Big governments and foreign aid like the WB are among the big practitioners of global central planning.

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See also: 

Energy 42, DENR's anti-coal alarmism and PH power demand realities, September 21, 2015 

Energy 46, Dominance of coal power worldwide, October 31,  2015 

Energy 57, Tony la Vina's anti-coal alarmism, February 06, 2016

Energy 63, EPDP lecture on energy planning, April 30, 2016 

Energy 64, Comparing energy density of nuke, solar, wind, others, May 02, 2016 

Fat-Free Econ 16: Coal, Climate and Government, July 17, 2012 

BWorld 39, Coal and renewables complement each other, January 26, 2016

IPR and Innovation 34, When 95% of WHO's EML are off-patent

I am reposting this good article by a good friend, Philip. Enjoy.

MAY 3 — Debates on how to improve healthcare in developing countries often start from the same premise: patents can potentially raise drug prices, so they should be abolished for better public health.

In the early 2000s this argument drove the campaign against patents on HIV drugs in South Africa. This week it is motivating campaigners against the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership in Asia — a proposed Free Trade Agreement between 16 Asian countries that may impose new intellectual requirements.

NGO disquiet about drug patents has even led to the creation of a UN High Level panel on access to medicines, due to report its recommendations in New York next month.

Such concerns may in fact be overblown. This is an implication of an interesting new study by researchers at the University of Ottawa and published in April by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) in Geneva.

To better understand how patents impact access to medicines, the researchers counted how many of the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) List of Essential Medicines are subject to patent protection in developing countries. This list contains 375 or so medicines considered most important by WHO experts.

It’s a hugely influential list, and one based purely on the clinical usefulness of a medicine, not cost or patent status. Developing country governments and large international donors use it to guide which medicines they will procure.

The researchers checked national patent registries in developing countries and double-checked with manufacturers. They found that patents for 95 per cent medicines on the list had expired.

Put simply, patents are not relevant to the vast majority of drugs typically used by physicians in developing countries.

Most of the remaining 5 per cent of medicines — around 20 products — on the WHO list with patent protection are for HIV/AIDS. But patent owners either don’t register or enforce their patents in the poorest countries. For middle-income countries, manufacturers often enter into voluntary licensing deals with generic manufacturers to broaden access, meaning there are cheap generic copies on the international market.

The one medicine with no generic equivalent is the cancer drug, bevacizumab (marketed as Avastin by Swiss patent-owner Roche). This modern so-called ‘biologic’ drug is used against many cancers, and works by starving tumours of their blood supply through blocking a key protein.

Patented or not, these biologic drugs are difficult for generic competitors to copy cheaply.

Unlike most drugs, which are chemically synthesised and made from just a few  molecules, biologic drugs are manufactured in living systems such as plant or animal cells, and have complex molecular structures. Their manufacture demands significant investment and technical know-how, meaning such drugs will never be as cheap as, say, generic aspirin.

One implication of the study is that if patents were abolished tomorrow it would make little difference to the cost or availability of most medicines used in developing countries.

Even so, these medicines are frequently unavailable in public health systems.

In 2014, researchers at the University of Utrecht in the Netherlands found that, on average, essential medicines are available in public sector facilities in developing countries only 40% of the time.

While generic medicines are cheap to make with no royalties to pay, they are still too costly for most people in developing countries.

One example from the WHO list is budesonide, commonly used by asthma sufferers. A single inhaler costs a staggering 50 days wages in Mozambique. In the US, one inhaler costs only US$5 to US$7 (RM20 to RM27) — around 30 minutes work on the median hourly wage.

The reasons behind the expense and scarcity of essential medicines in developing countries are complex, but failures of governance loom large.

Mark-ups along the distribution chain inflate the final price of medicines and include import tariffs, sales taxes, value-added taxes and retailers’ and wholesalers’ margins. In Kenya, mark-ups add 300 per cent to the manufacturer’s price; in Brazil it’s 200 per cent, says IMS, the global healthcare data provider.

Dysfunctional medicine supply chain management is another culprit. A 2015 survey by humanitarian NGO Medecins Sans Frontières reported one in three health facilities in South Africa have shortages of key HIV and tuberculosis drugs. The drugs are imported in sufficient quantities but fail to reach patients due to “local logistical and management problems, ranging from inaccurate forecasting to storage or transport issues”, said MSF.

Governments under-invest in health too. While most European Union countries commit 8 per cent to 11 per cent of GDP to health, few Asian and African countries spend more than 5 per cent: not nearly enough given their enormous health challenges.

These are the major influences on access to medicines. Public health would be best served if the political focus were on these issues, rather than patents.

* Philip Stevens is senior fellow at the Southeast Asia Network for Development (SEANET) and director of Geneva Network, a research organisation focusing on health, intellectual property and trade.

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See also:

IPR and Innovation 30, Patents and pharma issues in Asia in 2007, February 07, 2016 

IPR and Innovation 31, Plain packaging and trademark-busting, February 19, 2016
IPR and Innovation 32, On TPP, medicines patent and tobacco trademark, February 29, 2016 

IPR and Innovation 33, More on the panel on property rights, ALF 2016, March 09, 2016

Election 22, Is Du30 victory almost certain?

The SWS, Pulse Asia, and The Standard Poll, these 3 big survey firms say that based on their latest (until this week) surveys show that Duterte will win on Monday, May 9 general elections, getting about 1/3 of the votes. The other 2/3 votes are split into 4 other candidates. So a Du30 victory has a high probability. What's next?

This is made possible by our multi-party system. A 2-party system where the winner should get at least 50% + 1 of the votes will have a better mandate. And there are lots of knock out polls before one can be the standard bearer of 2 strong parties. But that will require change in the Constitution.

Du30 and camp always say, "joke lang yon". Like his plan to kill 100,000 criminals, his comment that he should have been the firs to rape that Australian hostage victim, etc, joke lang yon. So very likely, his plan to rid the country of crime and corruption, joke din lang yon.

But deep inside, he is serious in his plan to impose a dictatorship. His plan to declare a revolutionary government, abolish Congress, was reported in big news outfits here. The words came from Du30 mouth, not from me or those news outfits. But then again, many things that he said and promised can be "joke only"?

Only 2 days left to a likely Du30 victory. Not a fan of Du30, we can only plan or anticipate what's next, how to move on.

If Du30's love affair with the CPP-NPA and Joma Sison + his declared affinity with socialism continues, a coup by some sectors of the AFP is one possibility. A strong impeachment case in Congress over hidden wealth, state-sponsored murders of suspected criminals, is another. If Du30 fights back and declares a revolutionary government, abolish the Constitution, abolish Congress and rule by decree, a bigger instability will happen.

A Du30 victory is bad news. His love affair with socialism and CPP-NPA is bad news. But compensated by a Binay defeat, good news. Plus a reminder to the liberal government and many welfarists in the country -- that protecting the people's freedom from aggression and murderers -- are more important to many people than more welfarism and CCTs, more taxes to sustain more welfarism, more environmentalism and climate alarmism.

He will need military in his plan to create a revolutionary government and abolish Congress. But many sections of the military will be silently against him because of his explicit love affair with CPP-NPA, so he cannot abolish Congress. So he will go through the impeachment process in Congress and things will go more wild as more dirt will be uncovered.

A better preparation to avoid a Du30 victory would have been a Mar-Grace coalition. Mar being 3rd to give way to Grace being 2nd, and Chiz will give way to Leni Robredo, now tied with Bongbong Marcos for VP. If Grace wins, well and good. If Du30 still wins, then there is Leni who will take over if Du30 is impeached, still a good outcome.

But then again, Mar Roxas and the admin have invested too much for Mar, backing out is no longer an option for them.

We should ensure a strong and more independent Congress, House and Senate. An indep legislature can hasten a possible Du30 impeachment, maybe 1 year or less, Du30 will be gone. Leni can take over.

I disagree with the statement by many anti-administration people, that under PNoy, "the poor is getting poorer." Pang tv drama statement lang yon. They mean that those who used to ride bicycles before shifted to walking under the PNoy govt, not driving motorcycles or 2nd/3rd-hand cars?

Credit where it is due. This Admin has created more positive econ results than the previous ones. While the US, Canada, EU, Japan, etc are happy to grow 1-2% the last few years, the PH was growing at 5-6%.

Less or minimal government advocacy is far out from the current electoral debate. It should be a realization for some that BIG government means big expectations, big disappointment. And I think that is one mistake of the LP administration, they have expanded the PH government much faster than in previous admins. Budgetary growth of P0.3 trillion a year even without a crisis, and almost P0.5 trillion rise from 2015-2016 budget, this year, for me that's lousy.

Any significant increase in the revenues should have been used to retire many old public debt, the debt service payment should go down significantly, eating away around P0.35 trillion a year interest payment alone. The promises of the admin to expand CCT, meaning more welfarism and endless, no time table subsidies, for me is anti-liberal. 

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See also:

Election 19, On Grace Poe's renewables coercion, April 14, 2016 

Election 20, Digong Duterte's rape "joke" of the Australian victim, April 18, 2016 

Election 21, Duterte and the Australian, US Ambassadors' comment on rape joke, April 22, 2016