Climate Tricks 41, CO2 Leads Temperature, or Vice Versa?

There is an interesting article yesterday in WUWT, Presentation of Evidence Suggesting Temperature DrivesAtmospheric CO2 more than CO2 Drives Temperature. The author is right on target when  he  wrote,

The IPCC’s position that increased CO2 is the primary cause of global warming is not supported by the temperature data.

In fact, strong evidence exists that disproves the IPCC’s scientific position. The attached Excel spreadsheet (“CO2 vs T”) shows that variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration lag (occur after) variations in Earth’s Surface Temperature by ~9 months (Figures 2, 3 and 4). The IPCC states that increasing atmospheric CO2 is the primary cause of global warming – in effect, the IPCC states that the future is causing the past. The IPCC’s core scientific conclusion is illogical and false....

Veizer’s approach is credible and consistent with the data. The IPCC’s core scientific position is disproved – CO2 lags temperature by ~9 months – the future can not cause the past.

While further research is warranted, it is appropriate to cease all CO2 abatement programs that are not cost-effective, and focus efforts on sensible energy efficiency, clean water and the abatement of real atmospheric pollution, including airborne NOx, SOx and particulate emissions.

The tens of trillions of dollars contemplated for CO2 abatement should, given the balance of evidence, be saved or re-allocated to truly important global priorities.

Amen to those statements. A huge scam perpetrated by the UN and various governments that victimize taxpayers and energy consumers in so many countries around the world.

Dr. Roy Spencer made a good discussion of the subject too, How Much of Atmospheric CO2 Increase is Natural? (August 27th, 2014). He showed these two charts with a note,

But what if (I’m NOT necessarily advocating this) most of the CO2 humans produce, which is near the land surface, is absorbed by vegetation, and the observed global increase is partly or mostly due to outgassing of the oceans?

Scientists seem to make the assumption that nature is always in balance. But this clearly isn’t the case for natural sources and sinks of CO2 (you can find such plots in the IPCC reports, too)....

We should remember how much we have anthropomorphized recent warming: Human activities produce CO2 in reasonably well known amounts, humans do the monitoring of CO2, then humans do the modeling. Since we really don’t understand the natural sources and sinks very well — not to the <1% level needed to document that a “natural balance” exists (since human emissions are now close to 5% of natural sources and sinks) -- we just assume they are “in balance”. There, problem solved.

So, we impose a human explanation on what we observe in nature. A common tendency throughout human history. We are searching for answers at night under the only streetlamp where we can see.

Here's another plot from http://friendsofscience.org/. Lower troposphere global temperature, monthly data from January 2002 to April 2015, vs. CO2 concentration in the planet. Note the lack of "causality" between the two.

 Dr. Tim Ball made a good discussion paper on this subject, Plants encouraged as CO2 levels reach 400 ppm (May 9, 2015) and observed, 

All life on Earth exists because of CO2. It is essential to flora, which then produce oxygen essential to fauna.... Most plants, especially the complex vascular plants evolved in the last 300 million years. The average level of atmospheric CO2 over that period was approximately 1200 ppm....

The longer geologic record produced by Scotese and Bernier (Figure 1) shows that for most of Earth’s history the level was well above the current level. The only time when levels were commensurate with today was from 315 million years ago (mya) to 270 mya, yet for over half of that period temperature was similar to today.

Most plants, especially the complex vascular plants evolved in the last 300 million years. The average level of atmospheric CO2 over that period was approximately 1200 ppm.

Some government units are more honest than others (many are outright lying when it comes to CO2 and climate). From Ontario government, "Carbon dioxide in greenhouses", http://www.omafra.gov.on.ca/english/crops/facts/00-077.htm

CO2 increases productivity through improved plant growth and vigour. Some ways in which productivity is increased by CO2 include earlier flowering, higher fruit yields, reduced bud abortion in roses, improved stem strength and flower size. Growers should regard CO2 as a nutrient.

For the majority of greenhouse crops, net photosynthesis increases as CO2 levels increase from 340–1,000 ppm (parts per million). Most crops show that for any given level of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), increasing the CO2 level to 1,000 ppm will increase the photosynthesis by about 50% over ambient CO2 levels.

In many or most modern greenhouse farming in the world, farmers use CO2 generators and inflate the CO2 level from 400 ppm outside to at least 500 ppm inside. Here in one farm in Israel, they use 500 ppm. In many farms in the US, they inflate up to 800-1,000 ppm. More CO2, more and faster plant growth, more food for humanity, organic products. 

At 400 parts per million (ppm), it is not that big and many crops are considered as "carbon starved." Divide 400/1,000,000 = ???? 

Just 0.04 percent only of total GHGs in the entire planet. More CO2 means more plant growth, more trees, more vegetables, more rice, thank you gas-of-life, CO2. Only dishonest entities like the UN, Al Gore, and many other "planet saviours" keep saying that CO2 is a pollutant, if not evil gas, that must be demonized, over-regulated, over-taxed and must be cut.

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See also: 

CO2 is a Useful Gas, February 11, 2011

Climate Tricks 5: CO2, Clouds and Positive Feedback, March 21, 2012 

Climate Tricks 25: Demonizing CO2 as a Toxic, Pollutant Gas, January 19, 2014 

Climate Tricks 26: CO2, Pollution and Climate Junkets, February 21, 2014

Climate Tricks 37: Climate Money and the Scientific Dishonesty Behind It, January 31, 2015 
Climate Tricks 38: Threats and Witch Hunt of Skeptical Scientists, March 02, 2015 
Climate Tricks 39: Many Attacks on Dr. Willie Soon, He Repliedm March 03, 2015
Earth Hour 6: The WWF can Change Climate Change? March 29, 2015
Climate Tricks 40: Arrest Climate Change Deniers, April 11, 2015

CSOs and State 21, Patient Organizations, PAPO and HealthPRx

During the 2-days Medicines Transparency Alliance-Philippines' MeTA National Forum 2015 last February 17-18 held at Bayleaf Hotel in Manila, I noticed a significant change in NGOs involvement in public health discourse: a shift in active involvement from what I would call as "ideology-based" NGOs to "patients-based" NGOs. What is the difference between the two?

For me, the ideology-based NGOs tend to be more vocal against multinational and innovator pharma companies, against strong intellectual property rights (IPR) like patents of newly-invented medicines and vaccines, against price differentiation and advocate drug price control and mandatory price discounts. There is also implicit hatred of capitalism and support for health nationalization if not socialism.

The patients-based NGOs on the other hand are less vocal about those ideology-based concerns and are more concerned with helping patients of specific diseases have access with (a) financial assistance, (b) access to affordable medicines, and (c) support groups from fellow patient groups, other NGOs, academe, industry players and government.

After all, patients and their families do not care or segregate much whether the ones who can give them effective medicines or treatment are multinationals or local firms, innovators or generics, patented or off-patent drugs. An expensive but effective medicine would actually come as more useful and cheaper than cheap but ineffective (even substandard) medicine. The former would treat or kill a disease and improve the condition of the patient, the latter would allow an original disease to evolve and expand to something more dangerous, more lethal diseases. Of course the best scenario is cheap and effective medicines and vaccines.

So during the MeTA forum last February, I saw leaders of support groups for patients of diabetes, hepatitis, cancer, psoriasis, eyesight problems, cerebral palsy, etc. Cool. And while I have met some of them before, many others I have met there for the first time. This is a good and new development in public healthcare discussions.

Until recently, the state through the DOH and its support agencies like PhilHealth and FDA, was pressured by ideology-based advocacies like drug price control, 50 percent mandatory price cut of the most popular products of some multinational pharma. With the entry of patients-based NGOs, such politics of envy policies can be avoided or minimized.

Among those present at the MeTA Forum were the leaders of the Philippine Alliance of Patient Organizations (PAPO), the first umbrella or coalition of patient organizations in the Philippines advocating for universal access to health care and allied services, including persons with disabilities (PWDs). PAPO President or Director is Fatima "Girlie" Garcia-Lorenzo, who is also the Executive Director of Kythe Foundation, Inc. PAPO is a SEC-registered NGO.

PAPO has 12 member organizations: Akap Pinoy , Balikatang Thalassemia , Foundation for Sight, Haplos, Kythe Foundation, New Vois Association, Philippine Cerebral Palsy Inc. (PCPI), Phil. Society of Orphan Disorders (PSOD), Psoriasis Society of the Phils, Yellow Warriors, plus two others.

Girlie's deputy in PAPO is Karen Villanueva, another friend who retired from MSD pharma last year. Karen is a fellow UP alumni, she was in charge of public affairs of her company before.

Last Friday, Karen launched her new PR firm, Health PRx. As the name implies, it is a PR firm for healthcare-related campaigns and advocacies. Invited guests were Karen's family, friends, PR practitioners, former officemates at MSD, other players in the pharma sector, foreign and local. I was there, along with Jess Lorenzo, Girlie's husband and  is part of the company as its officer or director for good governance. Girlie was there too, we were seatmates in the table.

I asked Karen two questions about her company, who are their target clients, and in what sense that it is a patients-oriented PR firm?

Karen replied, 

“My target clients are persons or institutions who have a health advocacy and want to mainstream and popularize their cause. I also have to personally believe in their cause for me to take on the work. I would like to think that at the end of the day, everything we want to do for health should have the patients in mind.  And so my work in PAPO is an excellent way for me to ground my company and keep me focused on what is important.  It will be a constant and daily reminder to always put the patients perspective first.”

Cool views and mission, Karen. I wish PAPO and Health PRx a successful endeavor in the future.

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See also:
CSOs and State 18: Civil Society as Lobbyists for More Government? Cigarette Warning Bill, March 02, 2014 

CSOs and State 19: UP Maroons and UP Alumni, March 24, 2014 
CSOs and State 20, Gawad Kalinga and Housing for the Poor, June 08, 2015

UHC 26: Public and Private Spending on Health, January 31, 2015  
BWorld 3, UHC via Health Voucher System, May 23, 2015

Macro Econ Update

My sister's accounting and auditing firm, Alas Oplas and Co., CPAs (AOC) has produced a new monthly publication, the Business and Economic Update. Issue no. 1 for this month was released last week. I helped in producing that paper.

In the coming months, the publication will tackle sectoral issues like energy, trade and investment, healthcare, agriculture, public finance, and so on.

AOC has many local clients, and some multinationals, doing business in different sectors of the PH economy. The firm is also affiliated with BKR International, a global network of accounting and auditing firms with about 500 partner firms worldwide. AOC is the only partner firm in the PH.

So issue #1 introduces the readers to the macroeconomic view of the PH economy in relation to  its neighbors in the ASEAN, North Asia and South Pacific, Europe and North America. Multinational companies and partner firms of BKR International will find the data useful.

Here are the macro data.

The size of countries' GDP now is getting more and more related to the size of their population, unlike before. This is because with increasing globalization and global mobility of goods and services across countries and continents, more people have more access to various economic opportunities. Thus, the economic size of countries with bigger population tend  to expand larger than countries with smaller population.

And unemployment data. Underemployment data is not included as there seems to be no internationally-comparable definitions and data.

Check it out guys, thank you.
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See also:
Ipagbawal ang GDP Growth, Part 3, April 06, 2015 
BWorld 1, PH Economy and Politics, Is there a Disconnection?, April 24, 2015 
Demography 23: The UN, Depopulation and Climate, May 03, 2015 
Why are Interest Rates so Low?, May 05, 2015
Market Reforms in the 2016 Elections, May 25, 2015

CSOs and State 20, Gawad Kalinga and Housing for the Poor

Below are some thoughts from Benito Claudio, a friend of my former professor in UP Diliman in the 80s, Dr. Doy Romero. This was posted last week by Benito and sir Doy in fb and  was read by many people. I like this very successful civil society initiative, Gawad Kalinga (GK). It is very successful that it is being replicated in other Asian countries, and there are GK offices in  the  US, Europe, other countries. Reposting this with my comments below. The images I got from the web and adding them here.

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Doy I speak from my personal participation in three project sites of GK where about 400 houses were built in two sites and about 80 houses and a school were re roofed after a super typhoon in another site. I led a team of volunteers twice to re roof about 80 houses and rebuild a school and provide learning materials and two teachers for a year.

I volunteered in the other two sites. What was so noticeable in the site where we re roofed the houses and rebuilt the school was a working community with sense of involvement and belongingness. The project was well planned with common areas for school, livelihood and open spaces. In effect GK built a community not just houses.

This did not happen by chance but by meticulous planning and highly committed implementation by silent and unsung volunteers. Gk has teams of social workers, construction engineers, educators, livelihood trainors and site managers who oversee the community after the houses were built.

"House owners who were obviously poor in material things donated their service as their equity and I believe this provided a basis for ownership and pride. Livelihood volunteers provided the know how to create common plots for vegetables for the community and other entrepreneurial undertakings. Social workers ensure that community members gel.

In short what I am describing is the building of a wholistic communities where the members can live with dignity. It is so inspiring that my fellow employees grouped themselves to pool resources for a house they helped build. Others spent their vacation leaves to individually volunteer.

But all of these pale in comparison to the commitment of the Meloto family. I suggest the commentators start their research there. A foreign government was so impressed with GK that it provided an office in their country so that GK's effort can go international. . . I believe rightly so.

"The poor will always be with us but it was heart breaking to see a widow covering her young famished children with plastic sheathing against a pouring rain under a roofless house. And I wondered why so few people are lifting their fingers to help.

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Sir Doy Romero added his  own thoughts on the subject: 

the GK communities we visited appeared better organized than many of the non-GK resettlements we visited later. We did not see the lamentable condition of government resettled informal settlers that we documented in our study. In the end, we who observe from a distance really will not matter. The poor who need shelter will get them from GK and not from any other provider, if GK it is that is able to galvanize the energy and passion to get them done. 

I thanked sir Doy for those notes  and observations. GK is a clear example of civil society role at the max, government role at the minimum. People and beneficiaries behave differently if the project implementer is government, national or local. They tend to downshift to dependence, complacency and feeling of entitlement. “Money is from taxes and fees, those politicians are courting our votes, so we sit back and wait.” And just wait for the government housing to be turned over to them by some political bigwigs, with glare and flare of  tv cameras and other media coverage.

In a GK and civil society project, money is from donation, not from coercion. Beneficiaries behave differently. “Those talents and engineers are volunteers, not political appointees and hired paid for by taxes. If we do not help here, those volunteers will pack away and find other beneficiaries who are willing to help themselves and the project.”

GK, Rotary Homes, Books for the Barrios, etc. These initiatives build not only wholistic communities but also mature, self-reliant and non-corrupt, non-entitlement-minded people, especially the poor.

I have a friend from UP, now based in California. He regularly donates to GK and GK updates him and other donors of new projects, how funds are used, etc. He is satisfied so he keeps giving. But he told me that the moment he sees or reads and confirms wasteful use of funds or other shenanigans, his donation will abruptly end.

This threat of fund/donations discontinuity, plus any criminal charges to be filed, is the best regulator of civil society organizations like GK. It’s not the SEC or Congress or BIR that forces transparency and accountability, but the private donors who give in cash or in kind.

One implication here, it is possible to abolish some government housing agencies like the National Housing Authority, in exchange for some tax cuts somewhere. The poor do not care much who can give them free or subsidized, nice housing, whether civil society or government. If dynamic civil society like GK, Rotary Homes, etc. can do the job at little or zero cost to taxpayers, government should step back from more housing bureaucracies and more taxation.

* Digression 1: About relocation of M.Manila squatters to secluded municipalities in Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite and Laguna. A better option is high rise, vertical housing for the informal settlers within M.Manila. Beneficiaries will pay of course, not free, no subsidy. Otherwise, there will be one million more migrants from other provinces seeking free condo in MM. Beneficiaries can pay because they can retain their current jobs and income, the cost of transportation to work is lower, and they will have peace of mind of having ownership of the place where they live. Those who are too poor to pay even small condo units should not begrudge being  brought to  far away resettlement areas. They can have highly subsidized housing there but they will suffer temporary economic dislocation.

The cost of condo units can be reduced via drastic reduction of various taxes, fees, permits imposed by national and local governments. Real property tax (RPT) alone by LGUs can be very high, and that contributes to high cost of condo housing.

* Digression 2, on "We should not give up on encouraging government agencies to improve their performance." 

True, but only for agencies that are directly related to rule of law, protection of private property and citizens life, and protection of individual liberty. That means the justice system, the courts, the police, correctional, etc. If there is government failure in this very basic function of government, we can expect government failure in many other agencies that are not even related to rule of law implementation. Like housing, education, healthcare, pension, credit, etc. And that is precisely what's happening now. Government has expanded too much, the taxes, interventions and bureaucracies have expanded but the basic function of protecting our lives and private properties, there is government failure. So peace and order has been privatized, private security guards protecting our villages, shops, malls, schools, offices, airports, seaports, bus terminals, There is widespread and large scale distrust of government peace & order agencies.

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See also:
CSOs and State 10: The Role of Civil Society, June 15, 2010

CSOs and State 16: The Integrity Initiative, December 17, 2012 
CSOs and State 17: UP Pahinungod and Typhoon Victims in Mindanao, December 31, 2012 

CSOs and State 18: Civil Society as Lobbyists for More Government? Cigarette Warning Bill, March 02, 2014 

CSOs and State 19: UP Maroons and UP Alumni, March 24, 2014

Energy Econ 37, More on Wind Power in Germany

Two chilling news from No Tricks Zone about environmental militance and deception  in German.The first article was published on May 26, 2015, and the second  article was posted on March 21, 2014.

The first paper is an example of "regulatory capture", wind lobbyists writing the renewables cronyism law in one state in Germany.

"The FDP Free Democrats accused Wenzel of having parts of the 79-page draft legislation “dictated to him by the wind industry.” 

Bild quotes Free Democrat Dr. Gero Hocker, an environment expert:  

"The Environment Minister must concede that the wind lobby took over the job of drafting the law. That’s an outrage!”"

Good work, FDP. Fiscalize the green zealots mainly responsible for ever-rising energy prices in Germany.

From the second article, FNF's website, Liberal, was also quoted saying

"The proposed law by Environment Senator Joachim Lohse foresees a system of monitoring that allows for detection of violations and punishment. According to the Weser-Kurier daily, officials would ‘in carrying out the duties of their office, tread upon private property and enter private buildings‘. The provision of the German Constitution for the inviolability of the home would in this respect be curtailed....
 Here Lohse is creating nothing less than an environment police.”

Meanwhile, some not-so-beautiful rural landscapes of Germany after dozens  of wind turbines were erected. Photos from  Shocking, Before-And-After Photos: How Wind Parks Are Devastating Idyllic GermanCountryside!
 

And more photos. 

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See also:
Energy Econ 28: Germany's Renewables, Collapsing Windmills, October 22, 2014

Energy Econ 30: Germany's Renewable Problems and Expensive Electricity, November 27, 2014 

Energy Econ 31: Coal, Renewables and Possible Blackouts in Germany, December 08, 2014

Energy 33: Renewables Cronyism, Germany and UK Cases, January 26, 2015 

Energy Econ 36, The Visayas grid and coal power plant in Negros, May 31, 2015

Election 12, JV Bautista and Toilet Politics

This Inquirer report yesterday elicited laughter and jeers from many people, even  from non-supporters of Sen. Grace Poe.

From that report, it says,

“A foundling by definition is stateless,” Bautista said.
 Election lawyer Romulo Macalintal has said Poe is considered a Filipino and a natural-born citizen under the United Nations Convention on the Reduction of Statelessness.
 But Bautista said that the Philippines was not a signatory to the UN convention.
 “There are only acts of compliance by the Philippine government to the convention but we are not a signatory so it never cured the statelessness of a foundling,” Bautista said.

I shared that news in  my fb wall with this joke: "From what I heard, yong 90% octane + 5% rugby + 5% rubbing alcohol ang nasinghot ni JV Bautista before he made this press con, hehehe."

At least 10 of my fb friends shared that story ahead of me and made these comments in their respective fb walls:

1. The PDEA should be alerted on the strong stuff these UNA guys are having. Oh boy. -- Gus.

2. This makes Grace Poe more popular and appealing. -- Aiken

3. My heart goes out to Grace and all other children who long to know their biological parents. But I pity more those whose parentage are known with certainty. Sons of bitches. -- Ethel

4. Am-Poe-nin si Grace... with apologies to former Senator Saguisag... -- Tomas

5. Atty jv i thought i knew you... i don't! Talk to the Marines. Where is your humanity? I suggest it is time you go searching and shut your big mouth! Shame on you! As if foundlings and stateless persons have no rights and are not humans like me and the rest! I have doubts about you... kunsensiya ba meron ka??? -- Reyes

6. These are freaking idiots... -- Rike

7. ayaw ko na sana i-share kasi mainit pa ulo ko pero, sige na nga, para makatulong na matalo sila...yan talaga ang issue mo? may kinalaman ba yan sa kakayahan mamuno? -- Byron

8. Wala ka ring bang kinalaman sa pinagsasasabi nitong isa pang bark dog mo, Nay-Bi? -- Joji

9. Mga walanghiya talaga ang mga miyembro ng UNA.  Pinaka-maruming TraPo!  Huwag pansinin, huwag iboto! -- Estong

10. magandang idea yan: "Orphan adopted by d King becomes new president" -- Gibet

A friend, Todd, commented on my fb status,

Nothing enhances the credentials of a self proclaimed peace activist and human rights lawyer more than going after a women because she's adopted. Is this Bautista guy as much of a fraud in all his dealings, as he is with this issue?

I think persons with some attention deficit problem would utter such type of attacks on the lady Senator. It was not her fault that she was simply adopted, not her fault that her biological parents are not found or never bothered to come out until  now. The main issue in PH Elections 2016 is the capability and integrity of politicians aspiring to become the next President of the Philippines just 11 months  from now.  JV Bautista's concerns are toilet politics, low-life demolition and personal attacks.

Lastly, I saw a new "theory" re JVBautista's inhaler when  he uttered those remarks, a joke of course:

"katol or sunog na chinelas na china-made."

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See also:

Election 8: Growth, Debt and the 2013 Polls, May 30, 2013 

Election 9: India's Political Dynasties vs. Democracy, April 21, 2014 

Election 10: Comelec Critics and Commissioner Luie Guia, December 26, 2015

Election 11, Dr. Doy Romero on Binay, Roxas and Grace Poe, June 01, 2015

Pol. Ideology 64, Big World Government or Smaller Countries and Governments?

I am reposting portions of a great piece written by a friend, Jayant Bhandari. Jayant is a Canada-based Indian consultant who constantly travels the world looking for investment opportunities, particularly in the natural resource sector, and advises institutional investors about his finds. I met him about three years ago  when he came to Manila. Jayant also runs a yearly seminar in Vancouver entitled "Capitalism & Morality."

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World Government, or Smaller Countries?

Some believe that we are rapidly moving towards a world government. The European Union was one of the most visible expressions of this motion. NAFTA, ASEAN, and other trading blocks were seen as small moves in the same direction. The UN was the dream of the mushy-headed, those living on intellectual welfare with no real-life experience of how wealth is created.

A world government would be unsustainable if it ever came to pass, for the kind of people who work in governments always take pride at backstabbing one another, as well as their competitors in other governments. People’s lives have changed tremendously, given easy travel and high technology, but the structure of governments has not changed.

The world is becoming increasingly complex, but the institution of the state has remained mostly unchanged, making large governments very brittle….

So far from world government being likely to happen, the future belongs to smaller states. But this will happen after a lot of turmoil.

Most banks comply with US bullying, although the cost of compliance is horrendous for financial institutions around the world. One day a breaking point will come and they will stop. Perhaps an alternative international currency will trigger this….

The bigger states will break

Before the world starts ignoring the diktats of the United States, America will become increasingly heavy-handed. Anything it doesn’t like will be considered "terrorism." For Americans, privacy will cease to exist. This is not based on prophecy, but on the history of how human civilizations have evolved and gone out of existence. The Roman Empire disappeared. So did the English and the French empires.

In other large countries — India, Brazil, France, the UK, etc. — the institution of government will come under huge amounts of stress, as heightened expectations of a populations hugely influenced by the modern-day welfare system can no longer be met. The world is becoming increasingly complex, with new technologies and cheap traveling, but the institution of the state has remained mostly unchanged, making large governments very brittle.

While all conventional religions are tribal in nature, they at least have elements of compassion, honesty, and other virtues. But statism thrives on hatred for other people.

To me the “Arab Spring” was the first visible sign of this. So was the democratic movement in Hong Kong. Behind the facade of higher vision and increased nationalism is indoctrination of a populace that is incapable of critical thinking, the kind of populace that in earlier generations would have stayed out of having an opinion on public policy. They have come to see democracy as a magic wand that delivers whatever one aspires for, merely through the vote. Nationalism is the emotional crutch for their failure to be self-dependent and their lack of self-confidence. None of these fake, irrational values can keep big nation-states glued together when the crunch time comes.

The result will be the possible breakup of many of the larger states. Would the US also break up? The irrational tribal slogan — “we are the biggest and the best” — can keep the US together for only so long. So far from world government being likely to happen, the future belongs to smaller states. But this will happen after a lot of turmoil, ironically made worse by the fact that in general, today’s populace is likely more statist and patriotic than the previous generations.

Central America: case studies on small countries

I have been very impressed with how well Hong Kong and Singapore are organized. In fact, I have become enamored with small countries.

I recently spent two months travelling in Central America, trying to understand its economy and people….

These small states recognize the economic importance of expatriates and mostly let them get on with their lives. Protecting property rights is their core competence. Nicaragua, for example, has become an attractive place for property investment, offering the cheapest options for those who can navigate this emerging country. In terms of expense, Panama is in between Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

Panama offers quality at a reasonable price. It also uses the US dollar, which is not the best way to run a monetary policy, for it is still dependent on a fiat currency, but this ensures that Panamanians cannot run their own printing press. Of course, they have no central bank of their own, and hence no cartel that comes with it.

Why is a place such as this, relatively conflict-free and wth enormous natural resources, not very rich?

Not only Americans and Canadians but also those from Ecuador, Venezuela, and other countries are finding safety in Panama. As a rule of thumb, small countries offer asset protection that big counties don't, for if these small countries stop respecting property rights, expatriates will fly away with their money.

Neither Costa Rica nor Panama has a military. This not only saves what would have been about 5% of the GDP in wastage but it sets a certain way of thinking among the citizenry. War is the health of the state, and statism is the worst religion. While all conventional religions are tribal in nature, they at least have elements of compassion, honesty, and other virtues. But statism thrives on hatred for other people. When you have the military solely for defence, narrowly defined (as is the case with Singapore and Switzerland) or have no military at all (as in Panama and Costa Rica), the social mindset is not about hatred for people who are different.

The repercussions are far-reaching. Less hatred also means fewer social conflicts within such societies, and hence a lack of civil wars within these countries. One must still be cautious about isolated crimes….

When traveling around in Costa Rica and Panama one must wonder — as I did — why a place that has been relatively conflict-free and has enormous natural resources is not a very rich place. Businesses tend to hire expatriates as much as they can. Locals are not known for their work ethic. Why this is the case, I am not sure. But that is why I travel, for it forces me to think about issues that would otherwise not occur to me. It hones my understanding of cultures, politics, and economics. Again, as an individualist, what I care about most is what affects me; and I doubt that the realm of One World Government would stimulate me much.

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See also: 

Pol. Ideology 60: Lecture in Nepal on Liberalism, Rule of Law, Civil Society, January 13, 2015 

Pol. Ideology 61: Raison d 'Etre of Government, January 30, 2015 

Pol. Ideology 62, Marx and Hayek on Property Rights, May 19, 2015 

Pol. Ideology 63, Alternative Economic System, May 25, 2015

Election 11, Dr. Doy Romero on Binay, Roxas and Grace Poe

The Presidential and national + local elections in the Philippines are just 11 months away. I am reposting below a commentary, a good analysis, from a political scientist who does real political science analysis and shares his frank ideas in facebook and social media, Dr. Segundo "Doy" Romero. He was my former teacher in Pol. Science 14 (PH politics and government) in UP Diliman, sometime in 1983 or 84. 

Copy-pasting with zero alteration, from his raw and informal posting in his fb wall the  other day. The photos I got from the web and adding them here.

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1. On VP Jojo Binay:

BINAY FOR PRESIDENT! Part of the wisdom of the Filipino people is their ability to gravitate towards personalities that have that quality they need in a leader during specific periods in the nation's life. Charisma brings magic to the way a presidential candidate and the people find themselves invigorating each other. Even now, people remember fondly Ramon Magsaysay, Corazon Aquino, and the would-be presidents who never were -- Ninoy Aquino, Fernando Poe, and Jesse Robredo. When there is no charisma, when there is a nagging suspicion of pandaraya o pagnanakaw, It takes a lot of money to buy the people's favor when it is not there. That Manny Villar found out in 2010. I hope Jejomar Binay gets the chance to find out for himself in 2016, so that he will have a way of giving back to the people what his family has creatively appropriated for themselves, in the thought that like in war, elections are a matter of preparing a large enough war chest. Let us not dissuade Binay from running from President in 2016. Our people would know how to put him in his right place.

2. On Sec. Mar Roxas:

THE GREATEST DISSERVICE OF THE LIBERAL PARTY TO THE FILIPINO PEOPLE ... is in continuing to half-heartedly promote the candidacy of Mar Roxas in the 2016 presidential elections. Most people know Mar has no eye-contact with the Filipino people, and just like in basketball, he has stayed too long under the basket without the ball and needs to free the space for new players. The Liberal Party over the last five years has not really looked for an alternative to present to and excite the people, a grossly over-confident, even negligent course of action for a party in power.

3. On Sen. Grace Poe:

The Liberal Party should now put itself squarely behind Grace Poe as candidate for President. In signing the Senate Committee report that recommended Binay to be investigated by the Ombudsman for corruption, Poe has shown she is of sterner stuff than many imagined. She would be my candidate any day of the week, and twice on Sunday.

But Grace Poe should be a candidate of more than the Liberal Party -- she should remain independent going into the elections, as the Liberal Party has unnecessarily alienated many voters and absorbed many poisonous creatures, even as President Aquino's administration over the last five years has had high approval from the people.

What the Liberal Party can constructively do is to help build the organizational and managerial scaffoldings of a Poe presidency, so that she hits the ground running in July 2016. She must have a strong cabinet, a coherent strategy and vision, workable relationships with Congress, the courts, and the Constitutional Commissions, a good public information system, shared command of local governance with LCEs, and must be able to spot and avoid hiccups like the Luneta hostage-taking crisis that rattled the Aquino Presidency early on.

Because she knows it is necessary, Grace Poe is a fast and willing learner. She must be given the systematic briefings and experiential involvement she needs to be presidential in mind and performance. The heart, I think, is already there, as oftentimes it is the main asset "inexperienced" politicians bring into politics. Heart and morality are the first things that politicians lose in trying to gain experience against low-life personalities that chose public service as their career.

4. On Mar Roxas-Grace Poe tandem:

If that is the best combination we offer the Filipino electorate in 2016, then the next Philippine President for 2016-2022 might either be Erap or Binay, with Poe as Vice-President. Let us remember that Erap was second only to PNoy in the 2010 Presidential elections and Binay won over Mar Roxas as Vice-President. Only Poe will clearly beat Erap or Binay for the Presidency. Fielding Mar Roxas as President will not only lose the Presidency to somebody else, but will also mean another minority President, as his candidacy will encourage so many others like Ping Lacson, Rodrigo Duterte, Miriam Santiago, apart from Erap and Binay, who would think they have a reasonable chance of beating Roxas for the Presidency. Roxas would also consolidate all the anti-PNoy forces and sentiments against him. On the other hand, a Poe candidacy will ride on the combined endorsement of Pnoy and Erap, apart from the silent endorsement of FPJ, the loud support of all the weighty movie stars in the Philippine firmament, and a natural gaan ng loob of the masses towards Grace Poe. By the way, an Erap-Poe result in 2016 might not be too bad if Erap again "resigns" in mid-term and allows another woman to serve out his remaining term, and run for and win her own term until 2028. An interesting version of Tadhana for us.

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See also:

Election 7: My Candidates for Senators, May 12, 2013 

Election 8: Growth, Debt and the 2013 Polls, May 30, 2013 

Election 9: India's Political Dynasties vs. Democracy, April 21, 2014 

Election 10: Comelec Critics and Commissioner Luie Guia, December 26, 2015