La Nina and flooding in the PH, other countries

After a big El Nino the last two years, La Nina is back this year and it seems to be a bad one, lasting probably for the next two years. In the Philippines' main island of Luzon for instance, regular rainy or wet season is from June to October. This year, it is end-December already and it's been cloudy on most days with occasional scattered rains.

There have been several heavy flooding in the country too until this month that killed dozens of people due to landslides and drowning.

Ok, just what is El Nino - La Nina, how are they measured?

The quick answer is if the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly or deviation in the Nino region 3.4 -- the center-most and widest part of the 4 Nino regions 1, 2, 3 and 4 in the Pacific Ocean -- is above or warmer than 0.5 C compared to average temperature over the last 30 years I think, that's El Nino. If the SST anomaly is below or colder than -0.5 C, that's La Nina. So if the SST is between -0.5 to +0.5 C, say -0.35 C or 0.48 C, that's the neutral zone, neither El Nino nor La Nina, just developing towards either condition.

Here is the time series data over the past 67 years, 1950-2017. Prominent recent big El Nino years were 1998 and 2016, while prominent recent La Nina years were 1989, 1999-2000, and around 2008, 2011.

On average, the El Nino - La Nina cycle (yes, it's a cycle, like global warming - global cooling cycle, wet-dry cycle in the Tropics, winter-spring-summer-fall cycle in the North and South Hemisphere, water evaporation-condensation cycle, etc.) occur six years or so, three years El Nino development, another three years La Nina development.

So the UN, Al Gore, many governments, are dishonest and deceptive when they say that anthropogenic (or man-made) global warming is "unprecedented" (no precedent) and "unequivocal" (no ambiguity, so sure).

What, no previous ,global warming precedents over the past 4.6 B years of planet Earth's history? Big lie. And no global cooling that happen after global warming phase? Big lie. And climate change, climate cycle is not natural (nature-made), only man-made? Big lie.

I hope that by 2018 and the coming years, that big fake news by the UN, governments, big activist environmentalists will be exposed.

Climate Tricks 52, Counting temp. change only from the end of LIA

This month proves to be the hottest month of the year almost always. Generally cloudless sky although there are days that the clouds would be staying for a few hours. The consolation is that this big El Nino of 2015-2016 will end soon, when it touches the threshold 0.5 C temperature anomaly.

Bloomberg produced this drama story, Earth's Temperature Just Shattered the Thermometer.
Haha, the earth is 4.6 B years old, and the UN and others' baseline is the past 140+ years only? Clever starting point because that was also the end of the little ice age (LIA). Global temp has no way to go but up.

Honest research should go back to temp records over the past 2,000 years, 400,000 years, 1 million years, 1 billion years, etc. There are many paleo-climate data that are freely available on the web.

Plato was born nearly 2,500 years ago (424 BC). He was older than the medieval warm period (MWP), the Roman warm period (RWP). What was the global temp during his time compared to current global temp.? Much warmer. See the start of the graph, on the left.

http://s90.photobucket.com/.../Subatlantic_Had.png.html

Climate change (CC) is true, it has happened in the past, happening now. But CC is mainly natural (nature-made, not man-made) and cyclical (not 'unprecedented"). Climate changes from warming to cooling to warming to cooling to .... endless cycle. Now, big El Nino is fading, so what's next? Big La Nina. Like this El nino- La Nina cycle since 1950.

The last big El Nino was in 1997-98, Presidential election period too. I heard that many farmers in Mindanao were even selling their votes for as low as P50/head because they were so desperate. But at least no road occupation then, unlike the recent Kidapawan road occupation.

We still need environmental protection -- like converting low-lying areas into lakes, man-made lakes. For the rivers of Bulacan and Pampanga in particular, they need lots and lots of huge and sustained dredging, will require tens of billions of pesos perhaps, as we prepare for rising rivers and lakes, not rising ocean.

Here's the latest projection for La Nina -- by mid June this year or two months away. For how long, until 2017 or even beyond.

Yesterday, "Earth Day" and many government leaders in NYC were saying "we need more money to fight man-made warming and CC" by signing the Paris COP 21 agreement. More money, more UN power, more environmental regulations and energy taxation/subsidies. More carbon confusion and simply more government.
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See also:

Climate Tricks 48, Denying climate cycles, January 13, 2016 

Climate Tricks 49, No extreme weather, no severe storms in the past? January 14, 2016 

Climate Tricks 50, Letter to the US HOR Committee on Science, Space and Technology, January 30, 2016

Climate Tricks 51, The CCC, Greenpeace and fossil fuels, February 01, 2016

El Nino, Oplan Bayanihan, CPP-NPA and Kidapawan road closure

If the issue of rallyists and demonstrators in Kidapawan, Cotabato was asking government for subsidy to deal with El Nino crop failure, why (1) most plackards were campaigning against Oplan Bayanihan (OB), (2) farmer demonstrators were supposed to be very poor and hungry yet have neat, uniformly-printed plackards, (3) there were flags with hammer and sickle, (4) occupy an important highway connecting Davao-Cotabato, among the major urban centers of Mindanao?

Photos from  http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/561130/news/regions/farmers-killed-dozens-hurt-in-dispersal-of-protesters-in-cotabato

and http://davaotoday.com/main/headline/in-photos-tension-brews-a-day-before-the-dispersal-of-the-farmers-barricade-in-kidapawan-city/

I was not so familiar with OB, I googled "Oplan Bayanihan", the top 9 articles given by google are from (1) philippinerevolution.net, (2) human rights PH, (3) karapatan, (4) nato reyes, (5) inquirer, (6) Bayan USA, (7) bulatlat, (8) army.mil, and (9) interaksyon.

Ahaa, anti-OB is mainly the campaign of the CPP-NPA and affiliates -- 6 of those 9 sources, except from #5, 8 and 9. And the campaign has drowned the legitimate farming issue of farm subsidy against El Nino crop damage.

This video shows that (1) BFP started spraying water, (2) PNP started tactical advance, (3) protesters started throwing rocks and stones, lots of of stones, (4) PNP retreated, some running away in panic, (5) a small group of PNP was cornered by the advancing protesters armed with rocks, (6) gun shots. 

"Who started the violence? You be the judge"
https://www.facebook.com/kalumuranmindanao/videos/1272844346063461/

The CPP-NPA militants + Bayaan Mo Na front organizations manipulated the farmers. From the plackards, there seems to be little mention about subsidy against El Nino, more of anti-OB. Plus the red banners, plus the KMP.

A day before the dispersal, those at the frontline looked like non-militants, young boys, some women. But the plackards were consistent -- Oppose OB. 

Some (or many?) reporters are simply pro-demonstrators, like this story:

"All they wanted was rice, plus free vegetable seedlings and financial subsidy in the wake of the El Niño. But after three days of protest to air their demands, all that the protesting farmers and their supporters got were bullets." http://www.mb.com.ph/demand-for-rice-turns-bloody/

Wanted rice and vegetables only? But many plackards show that the highway occupants wanted the military/AFP's OB to be stopped, which has zero relevance to El Nino issue. The reporter did not mention anything about this.

El Nino also affected the provinces or islands of Negros, Cebu, Mindoro, Masbate, Samar, Leyte, Ilocos, etc. Farmers also suffered there but there were no highway occupation and closure for several days, no demand to stop OB. Why? The CPP-NPA on those provinces were less active, or less manipulative?

Meanwhile, this big El Nino is fading fast. Big La Nina is coming, more floods and destruction of farms soon. Will there be another road occupation and closure in Cotabato, elsewhere?

If the demonstrators, the CPP-NPA and Bayaan Mo Na opposed another OB like Oplas Bienvenido smile emoticon I can understand because that guy always says politically incorrect things, like big El Nino is not man-made but nature-made. But hey, they are opposing another OB, Oplan Bayanihan, that has zero relations with El Nino and prolonged drought.

To summarize my arguments:

1. Wrong venue by the demonstrators, NOT a highway please, there are public plaza, school grounds, idle farms, etc. Rallyists' freedom of assembly is secondary to other people's freedom of mobility.

2. Wrong insertion of anti-OB campaign in an otherwise legitimate farming issue of drought and crop failure.

3. Wrong use of live bullets against the demonstrators. Teargas, rubber bullets, strong water pressure, truncheons, etc. would be enough to disperse them from the highway.

Meanwhile, this video and interview of one of the original farmer rallyists shows that some or many of them really wanted to go home earlier, a day before, but leftist leaders prevented them from leaving.

https://www.facebook.com/atrocitiesandlies/videos/695574457252433/

In a debate in a friend's wall on this subject, I argued the following:

1. Inconveniencing the public via closure of a highway to get public attention is not justified. The rallyists have created more public animosity, not sympathy, in that act. Except for the few deaths, perhaps hundreds of thousands of people in Davao and Cotabato are clapping the PNP for opening up the road again.

2. When the Iglesia mob closed and occupied Edsa for 2D/3N to protest against DOJ's Leila de Lima, that act was road dictatorship. Even assuming that their "cause" was 101% valid, their choice of venue was 101% wrong. Their "freedom of assembly" is secondary or far out compared to the "freedom of mobility" of other people.

3. Road/highway closure and occupation for days is evil and wrong -- whether the perpetrators are Iglesia or Catholic or IS or commies or capitalists or batman. No justification. Kidapawan highway closure for 3 days is wrong. Mali lang ang govt kasi may namatay, but the dispersal was 100% correct.

Global warming hits Asia, Part 4

Back to back with "Snowzilla" and another "Snowmageddon" in the US East Coast, "man-made" global warming hits East Asia too. Hey UN, Al Gore, WWF, Greenpeace, Oxfam, CCC, WB, ADB, other planet saviours, you want more money from us so you can fight less snow and more snow, less rain and more rain, less flood and more flood, less dogs and more dogs?

Some news reports this week.

1. From BBC: 16C in Bangkok, 6C in Hanoi, 4C in Taipei, 3C in HK, -6C in Jeju, S. Korea. Guangzhou and Shenzen have snow. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35397763

Original headline of BBC for this story.

2. Semi tropical resort Jeju island in the south of S. Korea looks a bit like Alaska. http://www.reuters.com/.../us-southkorea-weather-jeju...

3. From CNN: -18C in Seoul; -12C in lower reaches of Yangtze River, China; HK's highest peak Tai Mo Shan -6C; 85 dead in Taiwan, 3 dead in Japan, at least 4 in China. 

http://edition.cnn.com/.../asia-cold-weather.../index.html

4. "Average temperatures dropped to 3.1 degrees on Sunday as a night of frigid, windy weather attracted hoards of frost chasers to the city’s highest mountain hoping to get a rare glimpse of the freezing conditions." http://www.scmp.com/.../polar-vortex-hits-hong-kong...

5. "The average temperature of 3.1 degrees was recorded on Sunday, the coldest in 59 years and the third lowest since 1885. The last time the HKO recorded temperature lower than 3.1 degrees was in January 1957, when it was only 2.4 degrees." 

http://www.ejinsight.com/20160125-cold-snap-to-persist.../

6. "At Eergu'Na in Inner Mongolia, the temperature on Saturday hit a record low of -46.8 degrees." http://www.interaksyon.com/.../with-video--asia-shivers...

Meanwhile, here's one of several forecasts of El Nino-La Nina events. El Nino to end around June 2016, La Nina to start around October this year.

source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing/sstaa.gif

Nature keeps telling us that it has no "unprecedented, unequivocal" fever. That heavy governments, UN, various multilaterals, bilateral institutions not  needed to "fight anthropogenic climate change." CC is natural and cyclical. Check paleoclimate data, they are very useful.
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See also:
Global warming hits Asia, December 28, 2010 
Global warming hits Asia, part 2, January 20, 2011
Global warming hits Asia, part 3, February 15, 2011

Global warming hits the Philippines, January 04, 2011

Global warming hits the Philippines, part 2, January 07, 2011 Global Warming Hits the Philippines, Part 3, January 26, 2014Climate Tricks 49, No extreme weather, no severe storms in the past? January 14, 2016

BWorld 29, Paris COP: Emission cut targets vs. energy needs

* This is my article in BusinessWorld last November 27, 2015.

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To fight poverty and unemployment, increased electricity supply at cheaper rates should be made available in the country, spurring growth, which creates more jobs and entrepreneurial opportunities.

High poverty incidence and darkness kill people. They are more exposed to dangerous informal sector work, criminals and robbers lurking in dark corners, more prone to road accidents due to dimly-lit streets roads, more prone to fires due to frequent use of candles.

Thus, the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP) in Paris this coming Nov. 30 to Dec. 11 should not be used to hamper or even kill cheaper and reliable electricity sources in the future.

The Philippines’ Climate Change Commission (CCC) however, sent an ambitious plan to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change last October. It said:

“The Philippines intends to undertake GHG (greenhouse gas; CO2) emissions reduction of about 70% by 2030 relative to its [business as usual] scenario of 2000-2030. Reduction of CO2 emissions will come from energy, transport, waste, forestry and industry sectors. The mitigation contribution is conditioned on the extent of financial resources, including technology development & transfer, and capacity building, that will be made available to the Philippines.”

What is the reference period, 70% of what by 2030?

In an Oct. 2 BusinessWorld report, “Philippines makes conditional offer to cut emissions by 70%,” it said:

“If fully implemented, the Philippines’ carbon emissions should drop 70 percent by 2030 from 2000 levels, said Lucille Sering, head of the country’s Climate Change Commission.”

70% drop from 2000 levels. Wow.

And in another report, CCC Deputy and Assistant Secretary Joyceline A. Goco said that their initial estimates showed that the Philippines would need around $12 billion to $15 billion in support to achieve its intended nationally determined contributions.

The basis for such ambitious and unrealistic commitment rests on questionable, if not wrong scientific data. There was global warming in the past century coinciding with the rise in CO2 emission from human activities and modernization, true. But there was also global warming during the Medieval Warm Period and the Roman Warm Period, when there was not even bicycles during that time.

The current big El Niño that affects the Philippines and other countries in the tropics is true, we can expect drought conditions in the dry months of December-May.

But to say that it is the “Godzilla” of El Niño, the biggest and warmest of all time as reported in many papers, is not true. The big El Niño in 1997-98 was more severe than the current one. (See chart)

Meanwhile, following are the numbers for electricity production in big Asian economies. Not included in the list are Asian economies with low electricity consumption, or those which consume less than 30 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) like Afghanistan, Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.

The sources and distribution of such electricity output per country is also given. The table is divided into two parts: those countries which have 90% or more of their total electricity production coming from fossil fuel sources, and those below 90%. (See Table 1) 

Our four more developed Asian neighbors -- Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong -- have fossil fuel dependence of 92% to 100%. They can attract more manufacturing and other industrial players; more hotels, financial institutions and malls because they have stable, reliable and more affordable electricity supply. And they create more high value jobs to their economies, and that partly explains why their people have generally escaped from poverty and high unemployment.

For other Asian countries with less than 90% dependence on fossil fuels, their big hydro power and nuclear power have filled up the gap. For instance, production of nuclear power in million tons oil equivalent (mtoe) in 2012 were as follows: S. Korea with 34 mtoe, China with 22 mtoe, Taiwan with 9 mtoe, India with 7 mtoe.

Singapore with only 5.5 million population consumed almost 47 billion kWh; Hong Kong with only 7.3 million people consumed almost 39 billion kWh; Malaysia with only 30 million people consumed 134 million kWh. In contrast, the Philippines with 101 million population consumed only 73 million kwh or nearly one-half that of Malaysia’s consumption when the Philippine population is more than three times that of Malaysia.

There is a need to further expand energy production in the Philippines, make the supply of electricity more abundant and the price to go down and more stable.

Today is a good opportunity to expand power generation capacity from conventional sources -- coal, liquefied natural gas and oil (West Texas Intermediate) and coal. Their prices have been declining since the past few years. (See Table 2) 

More electricity supply at cheaper prices is a must to sustain the fast growth of the Philippine economy. This is more evident in many industries that are electricity-intensive like manufacturing, hotels and business process outsourcing that are open almost 24/7.

It is doubtful that the CCC’s target of 70% cut in carbon emission by 2030, 70% from 2000 level, has any realistic basis, even if the targeted $15 billion of climate money is given to the country. It seems that the reduced emission target was taken with little considerations for the electricity needs of the country.

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the head of Minimal Government Thinkers, Inc. and a Fellow of the South East Asia Network for Development (SEANET).

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See also:
BWorld 25, Feed in tariff means expensive electricity, November 14, 2015 
BWorld 26, IPRI 2015 in APEC economies, November 19, 2015 

BWorld 27, The rich getting richer, the poor getting middle class, November 21, 2015

BWorld 28, Economic freedom in Asia, November 28, 2015

Energy 48, US energy subsidies and global energy consumption, November 06, 2015

Energy 49, Malaysia's and Singapore's bright nights and nat gas power, November 21, 2015

Climate Tricks 45, On "vanishing" snow and "Godzilla" El Nino

On March 20, 2000 (15+ years ago), The Independent ran a story predicting that "within a few years winter snowfall will become 'a very rare and exciting event.'" No more ice because of deteriorating "man-made" global warming. Very funny headline.

That story became "viral", circulated thousands of times as people panicked from that statement from a scientist at the Univ. of East Anglia. Now that story is gone. The newspaper is ashamed it ran that story? Here's from WUWT, One of the longest running climate prediction blundershas disappeared from the Internet, November 13, 2015.

Meanwhile, enjoy these scary stories. Paris 2015 is just 2-3 weeks away.

A Godzilla, monster El Nino, really? This year's El nino is indeed big, but the 1997-98 El Nino and 1982-83 El Nino were also big, could be stronger than this one, but they were not called "Godzilla" EN.

And here are the numbers that correspond to those up-down points in the above chart. I only chose the 3 El Nino periods, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015.

Warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5 C for the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) [3 month running mean of ERSST.v4 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW)], based on centered 30-year base periods updated every 5 years.

Source: NOAA-NWS Climate Prediction Center, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

Nope, this is not a "Godzilla" EN or "Strongest EN in recorded history." Above are the chart and numbers of recent recorded history. We are not talking yet about past EN 100 or 1,000 years ago or longer.

As Paris 2015 UN climate alarmism and junkets meeting come closer, we expect more "scary, worrying, very worrying" stories and news reports. They have only one goal -- more government, more UN role, more ecological central planning. And these are the basis of continued "expensive electricity to save the planet" policies.
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See also:

Climate Tricks 42, SDGs and Jeffrey Sachs, oil and warming planet, August 05, 2015 

Climate tricks 43, Interview at Sonshine Radio, DZAR 1026, August 08, 2015 

Climate Tricks 44, Scary predictions in 2009, August 11, 2015 

TIME mag. on global warming (3), October 04, 2015 

Global warming hits the Arctic, October 11, 2015 

From Kyotoism to Paris climatism, October 14, 2015 

Greenpeace is Blocking You, November 01, 2015

TIME mag. on global warming (2)

These pictures and headlines from TIME magazine somehow summarizes their confusion: less rain or more rain, less snow or more snow, less storms or more storms, less cats or more cats, they are all proof of "man-made" global warming or climate change. From the cooling of the 70s to the warming of the 90s and back to the cooling in recent years (except the 2010 and 2015 El Nino), they are all proof of global warming, and of more severe warming the coming years and decades. See the original picture and dozens of comments here, Time Magazine and Global Warming.


In January 11, 2011 (1-11-11), the US mainland was nearly 70 percent covered with snow.

Global cooling is more dangerous, more fatal, than global warming. Many people in the Northern Hemisphere are praying and wishing that man-made warming was true and not fiction. These 3 pictures are from yahoo news.

My sister and her 2 kids went to Florida in early 2011. They complained that they never expected below zero C temperature in the supposedly warm state of America and so, they brought thin jackets. But they were lucky nonetheless, they were not battered by severe snowstorms that caused many flight cancellations, stranded cars, buses and trains, in the middle to northern states.

The drama and lunacy associated with climate alarmism continues. Ahh, there are huge and endless global climate junkets to enjoy for the leaders of the AGW movement. There are trillions of dollars of climate money to collect, redistribute and centrally plan.

Ok, here's the latest global air temperature data, from the Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) and Dr. Spencer, as of September 2015. There is cooling trend in both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, but continued warming in the tropics due to the current El Nino.

source: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/10/uah-v6-0-global-temperature-update-for-sept-2015-0-25-deg-c/

Global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 9 months:

YR MO GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2015 1 +0.28 +0.40 +0.16 +0.13
2015 2 +0.18 +0.30 +0.05 -0.06
2015 3 +0.17 +0.26 +0.07 +0.05
2015 4 +0.09 +0.18 -0.01 +0.10
2015 5 +0.29 +0.36 +0.21 +0.28
2015 6 +0.33 +0.41 +0.25 +0.46
2015 7 +0.18 +0.33 +0.03 +0.48
2015 8 +0.28 +0.25 +0.30 +0.52
2015 9 +0.25 +0.14 +0.17 +0.55

TIME mag. on global warming (1)

TIME magazine seems to be among the loudest climate alarmist media around the world. Like this cover story in April 2006: be VERY worried, wow. When ice cover in the Arctic goes down, a phenomenon that happens every year and reaches its lowest level of around 4 million sq. kms. during September to October, we should be worried. When Arctic ice recovers a few months after, reaching its peak of around 14 million sq. kms. of ice during March to April every year, either TIME and other warming fanatics are silent or they will say that we should be worried still, as more ice is still part of global warming.

See for instance how they explain the 3 consecutive severe winter in Europe and North America -- lack of ice in the Arctic due to global warming causes a "blocking" of the warm jetstream, so that very cold Arctic wind blows to the south. More cold is due to global warming. Nice logic.

A satellite picture of Arctic ice, January 9, 2010. Data is from http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/. Is this a picture of an "ever-melting Arctic ice" that many warming fanatics propagate?

Another front cover by TIME. Its lead warming author, Bryan Walsh, gives the lead story, "How to win the war on global warming." Man-made warming, unequivocal warming, unstoppable climate change, global climate disruption. The terms evolve but the central goal remains the same: global ecological central planning.

Mr. Walsh produced another headline-hugging article, Climate: Unstoppable Global Warming
Posted by Bryan Walsh Monday, January 10, 2011.

two papers published over the weekend in Nature Geoscience show that the very length of climatological time can frustrate our efforts to slow global warming—assuming we can begin to do that. In one paper, a group of Canadian researchers decided to see how the climate system might react over the next hundreds of years if greenhouse gas emissions kept rising to a high level until 2100, and then were zeroed out....

by the year 3000 half the CO2 emitted into the atmosphere before 2100 would still be there, and global average temperatures that rose by some 3.5 C would as we kept emitting greenhouse gases would stay roughly at that level, even after the emissions ended. But that's just the global average—Antarctica would become much hotter, adding an additional 9 C after 2100.

We have to wait 1,000 years, or 1 million years, for it to happen. Meanwhile, we should remain worried and scared.

For us in East Asia, here's the latest sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly of Pacific Ocean's Nino region 3.4. Current El Nino is indeed big and warm, but it's not so alarming, El Nino of 2009-2010 and 2002-2003 were of similar magnitude. But notice the deep La Nina cooling after  those big El Nino. Meaning that after this high warming phase, we expect a deep cooling phase.

source: http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/climatic-phenomena-pages/enso/

Terrible global warming.

Climate Tricks 14: Flooding, El Nino and Arctic Ice

* This is my article today in the online magazine,
http://www.thelobbyist.biz/perspectives/less-gorvernment/1340-rain-rain-everywhere
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It has been raining almost daily since nearly three weeks ago here in Metro Manila and other provinces in the country. Just last week, my daughter did not go to her kinder school for three days due to cancellation of classes. The rains yesterday and today though, are stronger. There are forced evacuations in many river deltas, in San Mateo, Rodriguez, Marikina, Pasig, and other places in surrounding provinces. I got news from my folks in Negros Occidental that heavy rains were also pummeling the province and nearby islands.

Here is the latest graphics of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly (deviation from normal temperature) as of August 06, 2012. The Philippines, from north to south, from east to west, has between 0.5 to 1.5 C colder than normal. The colder than normal weather and SST is also experienced in Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, southern Thailand and Vietnam, northern Australia.

Source, http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomnight.current.gif

El Nino has actually returned, since last month, after nearly two years of La Nina and cooling. This El Nino-La Nina natural cycles occur every 3-4 years on average, although in global cooling period, La Nina are longer by several months than El Nino phases. But from the above image, Nino region 3.4 (central tropical Pacific) seems to have slumped back into cooling, especially the northern part.

Bob Tisdale showed the long term condition in Nino 3.4, the main indicator of whether the planet is entering an El Nino or La Nina phase. Bob did not put a linear trend here, but the trend is either a flat lining, or a decline in SST temperature anomaly there.

Source http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2012/08/06/july-2012-sea-surface-temperature-sst-anomaly-update/#more-2023

Meanwhile, some warming religionists keep painting a bleak future scenario of the planet. Here is one example: a projection in 1972 that the Arctic will be ice-free by 2000 or 12 years ago. I put beside the news story, the most recent charts and satellite photos of the Arctic ice, as of two or three days ago.

Sources:

1. News report, http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=zmI0AAAAIBAJ&sjid=L5wEAAAAIBAJ&pg=5376,3200988&dq=ice+free+arctic&hl=en

2. Graphs and satellite photos, from http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/

In particular: from top right:

a. Arctic sea ice extent, from International Arctic Research Center-Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (IARC-JAXA),
b. Arctic sea ice extent, from Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI)
c. Arctic mean temperature, above 80 deg N, from DMI
d. Satellite photo of Arctic sea ice extent with anomaly, from National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)

So those people who keep saying that “polar ice are melting at alarming rate” or “ice-free Arctic” or “ice free Antarctica” in _____ years (the shorter the more alarming the better) either do not know what they are talking about, or simply fooling and deceiving us.

Back to flooding in the Philippines. The warmists should admit it -- the planet is not warming. In certain areas or certain times, the planet is plunging into deep cooling. More rains, more flood, are not indicators of global warming.

Problem is that climate fanatics have turned their craft into religion. Regardless of data showing otherwise, they simply believe, they simply have faith, on warming.

Now we wait how many died, how many were evacuated, how many millions worth of properties and crops were damaged. And man-made warming has nothing to do with it but it keeps being blamed.
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Meanwhile, the rains and flooding have not stopped yet until now, evening of August 08. This afternoon, I entertained my two young daughters when I had fun in a flood in front of our gate :-)

See also:
Climate Tricks 9: Ignore Skepticism, Flat-lining Temps, June 13, 2012
Climate Tricks 10: Demonize CO2 as a Pollutant and Evil Gas, July 03, 2012
Climate Tricks 11: Coal and James Hansen, RE Law and the WWF, July 18, 2012
Climate Tricks 12: More Flooding is Caused by Warming, July 21, 2012
Climate Tricks 13: Block Skeptics and Keep Fooling the Public, July 25, 2012
Manila Flooding, August 2012, August 07, 2012

Climate stupidity 21: Global Cooling and Durban

As global temperatures -- air/troposphere, land surface, sea surface -- are falling, the UN and many high government climate/environment officials from many countries are preparing for the 17th Conference of Parties (COP 17) meeting in Durban, South Africa, this coming November 29 to December 9. Their mission, as usual, is to "fight man-made warming and climate change."

The usual junketers of endless global climate meetings are preparing their most alarmist presentations, photos and predictions, that unless taxpayers will send them more money, the world will burn with more catastrophic warming and cooling, more drought and no drought, more rain and less rain, more snow and less snow, more hurricanes and less hurricanes. more strong typhoons and mild typhoons. After all, whatever weather or climate the world or countries and continents will have, catastrophic anthropogenic global warming (CAGW) is true and cannot be negated.

Below is my article today in the online magazine, the lobbyist.biz.
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http://www.thelobbyist.biz/perspectives/less-gorvernment/1226-bitter-global-cooling

LESS GOVERNMENT

Discusses why more personal and parental responsibility, more competition, less politics, less taxes and less coercion will bring more peace and prosperity in society.

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Bitter Global Cooling

TUESDAY, 08 NOVEMBER 2011 02:37

WRITTEN BY NONOY OPLAS

Tags: Less Government

Re-emergence of La Nina without passing through an El Nino stage, drastically falling global air and tropospheric temperature, heavy flooding in several countries in East Asia. These are among the indicators of a bitter global cooling that is engulfing the planet.

Here is the recent temperature anomaly (or deviation from the average temperature) of the lower troposphere, global. Source of next two graphs, http://www.drroyspencer.com.