Saturday, May 18, 2019

May 2019 elections, dynasties strengthened and defeated

I agree about 90% of this assessment by Prof. Ronald U Mendoza, Dean of the Ateneo School of Government. Reposting, then my own commentary below.

Fat Dynasties and Dynasty Slayers in 2019: QUICK UPDATE
May 16 at 7:51 AM · Quezon City

The recently concluded 2019 mid-term elections demonstrate the staying power of dynastic incumbents, which likely affords them more control over the domestic economy to help fuel their continued expansion and staying power. It is a vicious cycle that traps many of our provinces in poverty and underdevelopment. Nevertheless, among our key cities and some provinces, the concentration of political power can be countered by key institutions of our democracy—notably the media, academe and civil society writ large—in these places there appears a glimmer of hope and a hunger for alternatives. The attached update outlines some of the gains and losses from our recently concluded elections.

Competition against dynasties

• Vico Sotto defeats Bobby Eusebio, of the Eusebio fat dynasty of Pasig City. Roman Romulo beats Ricky Eusebio for Congressional seat.

• Kid Pena defeats former VP Binay for Congressman of Makati City.

• In the provinces, Tings of Tuguegarao (Tings lose Tugegarao City Mayor and Congressional positions but keep Governorship.) and Ecleos of Dinagat Islands expected to suffer defeats. (Kaka Bag-ao expected to defeat Benglen Ecleo.) Osmenas expected to lose Cebu City Mayor position and Senate bid. However, Gwen Garcia expected to make a comeback as Governor.

• Estrada/Ejercito dynasty suffers losses in Manila (Erap expected to lose to Isko for Mayor), San Juan (Janela Estrada expected to lose to Zamora for Mayor) and the Philippine Senate (both Jinggoy Estrada and Jayvee Ejercito fall short of the “magic 12” at the time of writing this article).

Further concentration of power among very fat dynasties

• Meanwhile, the Cayetanos are expected to become a fatter dynasty in Taguig City, and the Dutertes are also expected to become slightly fatter in Davao City.

• Fat dynasties also remain entrenched in the following provinces, with expected victories by already large political clans. This outline focuses on the top positions only for now given what’s available. Here are the likely victors:

¬ Lanao del Sur -- ADIONG CLAN: Governor, Vice Governor, Congressman;
¬ Lanao del Norte -- DIMAPORO CLAN: Governor, 2 Congressmen;
¬ Masbate -- KHO CLAN: Governor, Vice Governor, 2 Congressmen;
¬ Maguindanao -- MANGUDADATU CLAN: Governor, 2 Provincial Board Members, Congressman (Note: Governorship is contested by two Mangudadatus;
¬ Sulu -- TAN CLAN: Governor, Vice Governor, Congressman;
¬ Western Samar -- TAN CLAN: Governor, Vice Governor, Congressman (Note: Edgar Sarmiento of LP is leading the other district where another Tan is potential Congressman);
¬ Isabela -- ALBANO CLAN: Governor, Provincial Board Member, Congressman / DY CLAN: Vice Governor, Provincial Board Member, Congressman;
¬ Cavite -- REMULLA CLAN: Governor, Provincial Board Member, Congressman / REVILLA CLAN: Vice Governor, Congressman;
¬ La Union -- ORTEGA CLAN: Governor, Vice Governor, Provincial Board Member, Congressman;
¬ Ilocos Sur -- SINGSON CLAN: Governor, Vice Governor, Provincial Board Member, Congressman – Note:

Possible additional Congressman in Ronald Singson who is trailing DV Sevillano by around 3000 votes at the time of writing this article….

*This draws on various preliminary reports on the 2019 mid term elections, as well as from this paper: Mendoza, Ronald U. and Banaag, Miann and Yusingco, Michael Henry, Term Limits and Political Dynasties: Unpacking the Links (March 20, 2019). ASOG Working Paper 19-005 . Available at: SSRN:

Meanwhile in Pangasinan (biggest voting population in Northern Luzon), the Espino family rules big time. Initial leader is Amado Espino Jr., a former Police General under FVR term, he became provincial Governor for 3 terms. Then the sons and wife follow. In this May 2019 elections:

Governor: ESPINO, AMADO III (son, 2nd term now)

Congressman, 2nd district: ESPINO, JUMEL (son, former Mayor of Bugallon), defeats Raul Sison, who was their pol ally for many years as provincial Board Member.

Congressman, 5th district: ESPINO, AMADO JR. (father, former Governor) defeated by Guico, Ramon III?

Bautista, Mayor: ESPINO, AMADEO (son?)
Vice Mayor: ESPINO, JOSEPH (son or grandson?)

Bugalon, Mayor: ESPINO, PRISCILLA (wife).

In Makati, as a voter there, I celebrate the defeat of former VP Jojo Binay for Congressman in District 1, and victory of his former Vice Mayor Kid Pena. The family has become greedy with political power.

For Mayor candidates were daughter and incumbent Mayor Abby, challenged by former Mayor and son Junjun Binay (Abby won).

(photo from abs-cbn)

For Congressman 2nd District is Luis Campos (Abby's husband, 2nd term as Cong.).
For Cong. 1st District Jojo Binay (defeated).

Another daughter Sen. Nancy Binay might win her 2nd term.

In 2013, the undisputed #1 political brand in the PH was the Binay family.
VP Jojo Binay, Senator Nancy Binay (daughter), Makati Mayor Junjun Binay (son), Congresswoman 2nd District Abby Binay (daughter).

Exec (VP), legislative (Senate and HOR) and LGU (city Mayor) -- Binay has presence.

This 2019, an emerging #1 political brand is the Villar family led by former Senator Manny Villar (PH's richest man in 2019, Forbes list of $ billionaires).

#1 Senator, Cynthia Aguilar-Villar (wife)
Las Pinas Congresswoman, Camille Villar (daughter)

(2nd to 4th: Manny, Cynthia, Camille; photo from Manila Times)

Las Pinas Mayor, Imelda Aguilar (sis in law?)
Las Pinas Vice Mayor, April Aguilar (sis or daughter in law?)

DPWH Sec., Mark Villar (son).

Executive (Sec.), Legislative (Senate and HOR), LGU (city Mayor, vice Mayor) – Villar-Aguilar has presence.

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