Thursday, January 14, 2016

Climate Tricks 49, No extreme weather, no severe storms in the past?

This is the continuation of my presentation at the Energy Policy Development Program (EPDP) Conference 2016, held at New World Hotel Makati last January 12-13, this week.

Here is Section II of the 6-sections presentation.




Other cases in Asia.
 This slide about the Philippines, I rearranged into a portrait format. And take note: November 2014, storm Haiyan (locally called "Yolanda") killed 7,000+ people in Leyte, especially in the capital city Tacloban. In November 1912 or 102 years prior, an estimated 15,000 people died also in Leyte due to severe storm.


The UN, other foreign aid bodies, various governments around the world, the big environmental NGOs, they will  continue that large-scale and global deception and dishonesty that recent extreme flooding and rains were "unprecedented." Because they aim for one goal -- more government. More global ecological  central planning.

Enjoy more archive stories here,  https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/below350-org/.
Yes, when CO2 concentration in the planet was below 350 parts per  million (ppm) and not 400+ ppm current level.
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See also:

BWorld 38, Climate change and the need for cheap energy

* This is my article in BusinessWorld yesterday.


Climate changes from warming to cooling to warming to cooling, in endless natural and cyclical pattern. A period of global warming for decades is followed by a period of global cooling, which also lasts for decades. So global warming has precedents, it is not “unprecedented.”

There was global warming in the past when there was not even a single car or coal power plant. This chart shows that modern warm period that peaked in the last century was not exceptional or scary. 



Energy policies in many countries have been heavily distorted by governments to fight “man-made” or anthropogenic global warming and climate change.

But how can governments, the United Nations and various environmental groups fight something that naturally occurs, like day and night, like wet-dry or winter-spring-summer-fall seasons, like El Niño-La Niña cycles?

This will be my main argument when I present my paper at the Energy Policy Development Program (EPDP) Conference 2016, with the theme “Toward Inclusive and Sustainable Energy Development” that would be held at New World Hotel in Makati City, Jan. 12-13, 2016.

The recent extreme or severe flooding and drought that people say as proof of “man-made” warming and climate change is not true. As shown in the above figure, the Little Ice Age from 1200s to 1700s showed severe cooling and flooding, brutal winter for decades and centuries.

In the Philippines, many instances of severe flooding killed thousands of Filipinos many decades ago, which is similar to these reports at the turn of the last 2 centuries. 


 People need cheaper, more stable electricity supply to deal with more frequent flooding and severe monsoon rains. More farmers will have to resort to greenhouse farming, hydroponics farming, elevated fish tanks, to minimize crop losses and stabilize food production and prices. Greenhouse farming can be energy intensive because of the controlled temperature inside the covered structure. The industrial and services sectors of the economy need to expand faster with cheaper and stable electricity, give more jobs to more people, so they can build stronger, concrete houses in good location so they can be spared from more frequent heavy rains and flooding.

Unfortunately, the Philippines still suffers from some form of “energy poverty” compared to many of its neighbors in the region. Even new comer and socialist Vietnam has electricity consumption per capita 2x that of Philippines. 


Moreover, the Philippines has the second highest electricity prices in Asia, next to Japan. So succeeding policy measures should be geared towards reducing the price and expanding power supply, and inventing new schemes that will further raise the price should be the least priority of the government.

To fight energy poverty and high electricity prices in the Philippines, the following are proposed, among many others.

One, take advantage of low prices of fossil fuels like oil, natural gas and coal, to expand power generation.

As noted in a previous paper in this column, “Paris COP: Emission cut commitment vs energy needs” last Nov. 26, 2015, these countries have more than 90% dependence on fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, oil) as of 2012: Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. Indonesia has 89% dependence.

Vietnam has only 50%+ dependence because 44% of its electricity is from hydro. South Korea and Taiwan have high to modest use of nuclear power.

Two, reduce government bureaucracies, both national and local, in the energy sector. A base-load power plant would require nearly 200 permits and signatures to be constructed. This has become a disease in government, that no one should move or start anything unless they get the bureaucrats’ signatures.

Three, the Renewable Energy (RE) Act of 2008 (RA 9513) should be drastically revised.

In particular, the provisions on feed in tariff (FIT) which means guaranteed higher price, and renewable portfolio standards (RPS) which means guaranteed minimum percentage of renewables, should be removed.

FIT’s introductory price that was passed on to the consumers in the Philippines from February to December 2015 was only P0.04/kWh. That was not sufficient because there have been many wind and solar plants that came on stream, based on calculations by some players. So consumers must be prepared to pay something like P0.13 to P0.20/kWh sometime this year.

Energy precedes development.

We cannot have strong and sustainable growth and job creation if there is not enough electricity for the people and their businesses, and if electricity prices remain high and continue to rise further. 

Bienvenido Oplas, Jr. is the head of Minimal Government Thinkers, and a Fellow of the South East Asia Network for Development (SEANET).
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See also:

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Climate Tricks 48, Denying climate cycles

Yesterday, I participated in the two-days Energy Policy Development Program (EPDP) Conference 2016. I was one of the panel speakers in the simultaneous discussions and I talked on this subject.


My Outline

I.  Climate change as natural  and cyclical events, not anthropogenic
II. But “man-made” CC means more rains and less rains, more flood and less flood…
III. Renewables to “save the planet”, Germany and UK cases
IV. Expensive electricity + mandatory renewables, Philippine case
V. Towards cheaper, reliable energy sources
VI. Summary and recommendations

I will post only Section I in this article.


Yes, nature including humanity, is about cycles. Birth, procreation, death, creating another generation that will repeat the cycle. Day-night cycle, El Nino - La Nina cycle. The current big El Nino has peaked, so La Nina is coming soon.


The PDO, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) cycle...


Climate changes from warming-cooling-warming-cooling... in endless natural cycles.


CWP was milder compared to MWP and RWP.



There are various types of solar cycles, from  the short-term, average 11-years cycle to multi-decades and hundreds of years cycle. The little ice age (LIA) about two centuries ago occurred during very weak total solar irradiance (TSI), during solar cycle (SC) 4 and 5.


There is also the very long-term Milankovitch cycles.


In one estimate made by systems engineer Dr. Ira Glickstein, he estimated that out of the 0.6 C warming that happened during the CWP that peaked more than a decade ago, "man-made" warming  contributed around 0.1 C while nature-made warming contributed some 0.5 C.


So if people say there is no climate cycle, there is no global cooling, only global warming, they are being dishonest, or duped by the anthropogenic or "man-made" global warming (AGW) alarmism. As I argued in the past, the purpose of climate alarmism is to have more government, more regulations and taxation, more energy favoritism, more costly travel and lifestyle, unless the source of power are the new renewables.
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Monday, January 11, 2016

BWorld 37, World rule of law index and the Philippines

* This is my article in BusinessWorld last January 08, 2016.


Among the gut issues that directly affect the ordinary people in many countries in the world is the peace and order situation, their freedom from criminality and terrorism, freedom from thieves, abductors and murderers.

In the Philippines, this situation is graphically represented by a huge number of private security guards almost everywhere: in schools and universities, office buildings and residential villages, malls and shops, banks and factories, airports and seaports, farms and resorts, and many other places.

This situation implies that people distrust the police, army, and other government enforcement agencies in protecting them and their private property. The peace and order function of the state has been greatly privatized a long time ago, despite the continued presence of huge and heavily-armed government armed forces and police.

Besides the huge number of private and armed security personnel, what are the other indicators that peace and order situation in the Philippines need major improvement?

The World Justice Project (WJP) has the answer in its annual Rule of Law Index.

Covering 102 countries, the Rule of Law (RoL) Index 2015 Report has used over 100,000 household and 2,400 expert surveys to measure how the RoL is experienced in practical, everyday situations by ordinary people around the world.

RoL is based and defined by the WJP on four universal principles:

1. The government and its officials and agents as well as individuals and private entities are accountable under the law.

2. The laws are clear, publicized, stable, and just; are applied evenly; and protect fundamental rights, including the security of persons and property.

3. The process by which the laws are enacted, administered, and enforced is accessible, fair, and efficient.

4. Justice is delivered timely by competent, ethical, and independent representatives and neutrals who are of sufficient number, have adequate resources, and reflect the make up of the communities they serve.

Eight factors were considered in constructing the RoL index:

(1) Constraints on Government Powers; (2) Absence of Corruption; (3) Open Government; (4) Fundamental Rights; (5) Order and Security; (6) Effective Regulatory enforcement; (7) Civil Justice; and (8) Criminal Justice.

For the specific purpose of this paper, only the components of Factors #5 and #8 will be shown. The country codes below represent the following: Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia; South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, China. (See Table)


The Philippines ranked good in Factor #5, along with other Asian countries mentioned above. Perhaps the presence of so many private security agencies has contributed to the overall improvement in order and security.

The country though scored low in Factor #8 where the government’s justice, police and correctional agencies are directly involved.

Presidential, congressional, and local candidates, as well as their political parties and officials, should make it a priority to improve the country’s criminal justice system. An improvement in this area should mean higher confidence and respect of government and its various institutions.

A poor household may get free education, free health care,, a monthly cash transfer from the government and other subsidy programs. But of what use are these welfare programs if the same household would have one or more family members abducted, raped, or even murdered? Or the small parcel of land it has inherited or acquired after years of savings was grabbed by some influential individuals and families?

Here’s to hoping that the security and order, the criminal justice system of the country will greatly improved in the years to come.

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the head of Minimal Government Thinkers, Inc., and a Fellow of Stratbase-Albert del Rosario Institute (ADRi). minimalgovernment@gmail.com 
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See also:

Rule of Law 11: RoL Index, October 15, 2010

Saturday, January 09, 2016

ALF 4, Conference 2016 in Kuala Lumpur

Aside from the Economic Freedom Network (EFN) Asia annual conferences, the second biggest annual event for free market leaders, scholars and advocates in the region is the Asia Liberty Forum (ALF). Good opportunity to meet many like-minded people in the region plus friends from the US and Europe.


Main sponsors this year are the Institute for Democracy and Econ. Affairs (IDEAS) in Kuala Lumpur, Atlas Economic Research Foundation in Washington DC, and Center for Civil Society (CCS) in Delhi.

The 1st and 2nd ALF in 2013 and 2014 were held in Delhi, India. The 3rd ALF in 2015 was held in Kathmandu, Nepal. This is the 4th ALF2016 and first time it will be held in South East Asia.

Good lineup of speakers, including Parth J Shah and Baishali Bomjan of CCS, Wan Saiful Wan Jan and Tricia Yeoh of IDEAS, Razeen Sally of NUS, Singapore, Ali Salman of PRIME, Pakistan, Tom G. Palmer of Atlas, Eamonn Butler of Adam Smith Institute in UK, and Leon Louw of Free Market Foundation, S. Africa.

Also Rainer Heufers of the Center for Indonesian Policy Studies (CIPS), Andrew Shuen of Lion Rock Institute in HK, Arpita Nepal and Robin Sitoula of Samriddhi Prosperity Foundation in Kathmandu.

I suggested a panel discussion about labor migration in Asia.  CIPS is producing a long paper on labor migration, although the focus is on the experience of the Philippines and Indonesia, the panel can be broadened to other countries, include also a discussion on refugees in Europe. So 4 possible speakers, one each from CIPS-Indonesia, from China, India and Germany.

China and India are the biggest recipients of overseas remittances annually, they also have the biggest number of overseas workers and professionals worldwide. The speaker from Germany can talk about the impact of huge number of refugees on the labor market there and the rest of Europe.

Congrats to the three think tanks -- IDEAS, CCS and Atlas -- for this great initiative.
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Wednesday, January 06, 2016

Pol. Ideology 65, Liberals and liberty, positive and negative freedom

Reposting  here a good article by a friend, published yesterday in a paper in Kuala Lumpur. Good discussion about liberal vs. illiberal, liberty vs. coercion, positive vs. negative  freedom.
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Negative freedom is the true way to respect choice, while positive freedom brings you closer to an illiberal coercive environment.

IT is heartening to see more liberals speaking up these days. Every time an illiberal idea is put to the public, you can almost rest assured that someone will fight back to defend their freedom and liberty to seek happiness in their own ways.

Liberty is the principle that founded this nation.

In fact, our Bapa Malaysia Tunku Abdul Rahman announced proudly in the Pro­clamation of Independence and Procla­mation of Malaysia that this nation shall “be forever a sovereign democratic and independent State founded upon the principles of liberty and justice and ever seeking the welfare and happiness of its people”.

Liberalism is indeed about liberty and freedom. But when we at Ideas hosted “The Liberalism 2015 Conference” back in September, the confusion about what libera­lism actually means was obvious.

We intentionally designed the conference to be a platform for stakeholders to discuss with each other what they thought about the philosophy.

By stakeholders I mean anyone with an interest in the topic, regardless of whether or not you agree with it.

We saw a beautiful interaction between the proponents and opponents of liberal ideas and, of course, we also saw how confused some people were about the topic.

One of the speakers made a succinct point about the confusion. Khalid Jaafar, a member of the Ideas Council, said that it was apparent some speakers were talking about anarchism, despite using the label liberalism.

They thought liberalism meant not having any laws, when that is actually anarchism. On the contrary, liberalism is about upholding the rule of law.

One way to understand the meaning of freedom in its classical sense is by using philosopher Isaiah Berlin’s description of positive and negative freedom.

It is impossible to give a full description of these two types of liberties in this short article. But to simplify, positive freedom is “freedom to” while negative freedom is “freedom from”.

If you take, for example, the fact that I cannot afford to send all my children to quality private schools, a government that believes in positive freedom will want to ensure I have the freedom to send my child to that school.

The government may tax everybody else and pass the money to me so that I can pay the fees. Or the government could put a cap on the school fees, coercing the school to reduce their fees for me.

On the other hand, if a government that believes in negative freedom wants to ensure I can afford that school, it will do so by removing the hurdles preventing me from being able to pay.

The fees might be expensive because the number of private schools is small and setting up more is too bureaucratic.

So the government will remove the bureaucracy and give more licences to create competition, which will in turn reduce the cost.

It gives me the freedom to choose that school by removing the barriers that prevent me from going there, not by coercing others to help me.

These two concepts are important to understand when talking about liberty because they can be competing ideas that are incompatible with one another.

Positive freedom coerces people into doing something they don’t want. You are coerced to pay tax to help me even though you might need the money more than me.

Negative freedom frees up the supply and avoids coercion, for example by giving more licences and reducing bureaucracy so that you are free from the limitations that held you back.

Those who believe in liberty in its classical sense believe in negative freedom and not positive freedom. Negative freedom is the true way to respect choice while positive freedom brings you closer to an illiberal coercive environment.

If we apply this to the hot issues that exist today, we will actually come to some very interesting policy challenges.

Take the desire to practise one’s religion. Let us take the desire by some Muslims to have hudud.

This is a challenging situation and I myself am still researching for the most acceptable policy solution.

But a liberal would respect the right of a person to practise his religion, including to have hudud imposed on him.

The challenge, however, is how to ensure the person can fulfil his religious obligations while at the same time ensure there is no coercion on others.

In this case, while I understand the concerns of those who oppose hudud, I also fear that the opponents may have become illibe­rals themselves by denying the right to have hudud.

Similarly, there is an increasing number of people these days who jump when they see signs of an “Islamised” society.

A liberal would respect and indeed defend the choices made by those who want to live life in what they deem as “Islamic”. Islamophobia is not at all liberal.

The policy problem, however, is when government coercive powers are used to impose a set of values on those who prefer not to live their lives according to those values.

How to decouple personal beliefs from illiberal government coercion in a country like Malaysia is one thing that I am still trying to figure out because it has to be done delicately.

But one thing I do know is that liberals respect choices. To paraphrase a popular saying, I may not agree with your belief but I will defend to death your right to believe in them.

If we are liberals, we should look for ways to accommodate the different beliefs and choices made by individuals for themselves.

We should not become illiberals ourselves by stopping others from living their lives the way they choose.

Wan Saiful Wan Jan is chief executive of the Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (www.ideas.org.my). The views expressed here are entirely the writer’s own.
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See also: 

BWorld 36, What if the Philippines splits into many new island-countries?

* This is my article in BusinessWorld yesterday.


This piece will attempt to provide an outlook for the Philippines many decades from now, a view different from articles and analyses seeking to explain what happened during the previous year and what to expect for the next.

In particular, this will be an outlook of the Philippines if it splits up into many new, small island countries.

There are two reasons for considering this view, however unthinkable it may be for some.

First point: There are dozens of other small countries with very small populations and small land areas yet they continue to exist as a country, and even become prosperous and wealthy. (See Table)


Second point: After traveling over land and sea for the past two weeks in several provinces and islands outside Luzon -- Oriental Mindoro, Panay Island (Aklan, Capiz, Iloilo, Antique provinces), Guimaras, and Negros Occidental -- I have come to realize that their growth potentials could be unleashed by they are allowed to set their own “national” policies -- from international trade and taxes to local programs and subsidies.

In the table, columns 2 and 3 show how some countries -- despite the small size of their land areas and populations -- persist, and even thrive, as nation-states, thanks to their own airports, seaports, education and health care facilities.

Columns 4 and 5 show their level of economic wealth and Internet connectivity. These are among the indicators of their prosperity despite their size. Column 6 shows the wide variety or divergence of income tax policy. At least four of these small countries have zero income tax while some have rates ranging from 39% to 44%.

Consider these four Asian economies: Hong Kong, Singapore, Brunei and Bhutan. Despite their small land area and population, they have food security, fiscal and energy sustainability, dependable infrastructure, and high Internet connectivity. They can manage on their own.

Why can’t the Philippines’ individual islands do the same?

Hong Kong will not be as dynamic and rich if it was just one of the many provinces of China. British colonialism has diversified and isolated it from the bureaucratism of China, before and after the communist takeover in 1949. Hong Kong for instance, could set a low income tax of only 17% vs. China’s 45%.

Singapore will not be as dynamic and rich if it was just one of the many states of Malaysia. Singapore opted for secession, not federalism. Singapore could set its own lower income tax of only 20% vs. Malaysia’s 26%.

Brunei too, would not have become as dynamic in energy development if it was just one of the many states of Malaysia or Indonesia. It is too far from Kuala Lumpur or Jakarta, and getting exploration and development permits alone from these national capitals would already be a bureaucratic headache. Brunei also has an income tax of zero vs. Malaysia’s 26% or Indonesia’s 30%.

Bhutan has its unique geography and cultural life that allows it to slowly prosper. It set its own income tax of 25% vs India’s 31%.

The economic potentials of current Philippine provinces and islands will be larger if their political and business leaders are given the chance to act as national leaders, not as provincial leaders beholden to the high officials and policies of the national or central government in Metro Manila.

A break up into many small countries does not mean animosity among them. Singapore’s secession from Malaysia did not result in any armed confrontation between them. Trade and freer mobility of goods and people/services has cemented friendship and long-term economic partnership between them.

There are many avenues for inter-country cooperation within the region. Like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the ASEAN Economic Community, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, World Trade Organization, membership at the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and World Bank, and so on. Presidents, Prime Ministers, Cabinet Secretaries or Ministers regularly see each other, several times a year.

With the continued expansion of the Philippine government especially at the national or central agencies, there is little chance that it will agree to a significant income tax cut, or reduction of various taxes, fees, royalties, penalties and mandatory contributions.

On the contrary, it will only be thinking of ways to retain those multiple taxes, if not raise them further. The “fiscal tragedy of the commons” can only worsen in the coming years, not reduce or lessen.

One way to break this tragedy is to create economic competition among many countries, or, in this case, islands.

For instance, it is possible that some island states can have an income tax rate of 32% or higher, but it is also possible that other island states can have zero to 10% income tax and attract lots of entrepreneurs, professionals, and workers from other islands and other countries around the world.

The perspective of having new, many small countries out of the Philippines’ many islands and provinces, is not short-term; it is long-term. Its viability or nonviability should be explored by local scholars and actors from various sectors of the country. It is a good way to start the new year.

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the head of Minimal Government Thinkers, and a Fellow of the South East Asia Network for Development (SEANET).
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Monday, January 04, 2016

Happy new year 2016

Happy new year, 2016. Let us stay positive and optimistic this year and the succeeding years. On this note, I am reposting 9 of the 16 reasons given by Daniel Hannan, a Conservative Member of the European Parliament (he blogs at www.hannan.co.uk), and I added the 10th reason, with two charts from Human Progress.
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http://www.capx.co/16-reasons-to-be-cheerful-about-2016/
16 reasons to be cheerful about 2016

By Daniel Hannan  @DanHannanMEP
1 January 2016

Iain Martin closed the old year with 15 reasons to be cheerful about 2015. Let me open the new one with 16 reasons to be cheerful about 2016.

1. The world will be richer. According to the IMF, global GDP will increase by 3.8 per cent in 2016, up from 3.3 per cent in 2015. It’s easy, when you’re sitting at a computer screen in a developed country, to say “GDP isn’t everything”. But, in most of the world, 3.8 per cent growth means vaccines and schoolbooks and clean water and bicycles and electricity.

2. The world will be cleverer. IQ is rising by around three points a decade. There are various explanations as to why: better nutrition, smaller families, a greater propensity to abstract reasoning in post-agrarian societies. Whatever its cause, the trend shows no sign of slowing. As well as getting better at using our brains, we know more. We now have a better understanding of evolution than Darwin, a better understanding of economics than Hayek – not because we are brighter than those titans, but because we are a click away from information beyond their imagining.

3. Humanity will become interconnected. In developed countries, we will benefit from the spread of social media and Uber and Airbnb. But the real breakthrough is in poorer countries, where the challenge has been getting Internet access at all. Various schemes are now underway to bring the world online, including a plan by Google to use balloons. It’s worth noting that these networks are developing because of the profit motive, not because of state aid.

4. Energy will be cheap. Some analysts expect the price of oil to continue to slide, perhaps to as little as $20 a barrel. Others forecast a slight recovery. But no one thinks it will return to the three-figure sums that we recently took for granted. Cheap energy isn’t just good news for consumers. It also means cheaper production costs, and a competitive lift to the entire economy.

5. Despots will be weaker. Which countries stand to lose most from the plummeting oil price? Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela. And populist socialism will peak.

6. Poverty will fall. According to the World Bank, fewer than ten per cent of the world now live in extreme poverty, defined as $1.90 a day or less. That figure has fallen by more than two thirds since 1990, as previously closed economies joined the global market system. The total eradication of extreme poverty now looks not just feasible but likely.

7. India will become a global power. The world’s largest democracy is, for the first time, becoming an active international sponsor of democracy.

8. The world will be greener. The Paris Conference marked a shift toward achievable carbon targets embraced voluntarily by nation-states – a far more realistic policy than the previous idea of rules enforced by a global bureaucracy. But there is more to environmentalism than global warming. Indoor cooking fires, which are arguably the most noxious pollutant of all, are being dispaced. More agrarian land will be “rewilded” in 2016, as modern farming leads to greater yields from the same acreage. More species will be taken off the endangered list.

9. The world will be healthier. It looks as though we have seen the last case of polio in Africa, and the disease may be eradicated from its last hideouts in Afghanistan and Pakistan this year. Yaws and malaria may not be far behind; even measles and rubella are on their way to extinction.
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10. Food world prices will continue to stabilize, if not decline. Here are 3 charts to support this optimism.

After peaking in early 2011, Vietnam rice price has declined. One more reason why rice protectionism in the Philippines should end and allow the poor to have more access to cheaper rice from our neighbors in East Asia.

source: http://humanprogress.org/static/2602

Overall world food prices have increased in the past decade. The massive conversion of food output to biofuel is partly responsible for this. Corn and other crops were used to feed cars and trucks, not people. By 2013, prices have stabilized and mildly declined.

source: http://humanprogress.org/static/2617

We have entered a world of rising prosperity, rising food security, rising human freedom. Not abruptly but slowly and surely. Happy new year, once again.
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See also:
Fireworks and Liberty: New Year 2012, January 01, 2012 
Happy New Year, January 01, 2013 
Top 10 News in 2014, Happy New Year 2015, December 31, 2014 
Thank you, 2015, December 31, 2015 
Top 10 good news about the world, Happy new year, December 31, 2015